Fillerino

 

Day Six Begins!

You gather around a dead body on ground. Yep. It's dead.

Tom has died in the night!

He was:

Spoiler

Town Cycle JoaT

Livelist:
Cobalt
Dels
Fontisian
Gemma
Regfan (r. Fluffiness)
The Waco Kid
Vaimes

With 7 alive it's 4 to yeet, 6 to defenestrate.

Day Ends in 48 hours.​

 

Ok so just don’t hammer, I’m super drunk and not gonna play tonight but allow me to at least plead my case tomorrow.

Also, start thinking about who it is if I flip villa. That’s all I ask while I’m gone.

 

Don’t forget to throw in who you’ll be voting.

 

Did a fair bit of reading overnight, still have some more I want to do. I will be leaving legacy town reads on Fontisian & Gemma pending a reread through them to make sure there's no world where I'm being snowed.

I'm tempted to leave a legacy town read on Dels here...which is not something I ever thought I was going to do Post D2. There's a lot in his play that just feels very...genuine re; thoughts and approach on the game.. And there's a lot of Amy<->Dels interactions that I read through that reminded me of why I had them so strongly as anti-aligned before. I feel like Dels was really trying to bounce with Amy in the game in a way that'd be unlikely/weird to do as mafia, and I feel like a fair bit of Amy->Dels stuff feels sort of appeasey and pocket-y in a way that I think makes a perfect amount of sense in a W/V world.

I would like to see a /lot/ more from him today to really cement this read though, because if Dels is town here his worldview on the game would have just been blown wide open with both the Cuth & Amy scum flips. And if I see enough from him here today I'll probably drop a town case before EoD on him so that if you we miss today you can pull him out of the PoE pool. If anyone in particular outright thinks he's mafia, definitely want to hear it.

 

Yeah I've just gone through Gemma/Fonti (More just a brief skim of Gemma, and all of Fontis ISO) definitely 100% A-OK with leaving legacy never yeet town reads on both of them, would be pretty impressed if either are scum here.

 

I'm decently confident Regfan is a villager.

 

Perhaps... I'm going back and forth on that one /s

 

@The Waco Kid - Can you maybe talk a bit about where your heads at right now, and what your reads on players are? Who do you confidently think is town and why? Who are you leaning towards being mafia, or think we should be focusing on, and again why?

 

Just finished getting through Wacos ISO, and yeah that EoD just reads super super town, the stuff on Vaimes, the reaction to being voted, the interactions with me/fonti. There's a lot of reads and thoughts of his that flow really well throughout the game, and there's a few specific things inside his posts that I really don't see being fake.

I think Cobalt<->Vaimes ends this game.

 

Uh... well, hi.

I feel like I haven't been in this thread in ages.

 

I had this big rant mentally prepared about how people deviated from yeeting Tom to go onto Rubi and hit a townie with a last minute CFD.

I was gonna post that yesterday.

It's. Uh. It's in the bin now.

Oops.

 

Rubi's who I would've voted if we went outside of Tom/Amy anyway so double oops, tbh.

There were a few comments of like "Dels hasn't been around" and that's kind of tilting too. Sorry for missing EoD, but I checked the thread in late afternoon, saw the plan was still maj Tom and that my vote was still good there, and went to sleep thinking it was never gonna change. And obviously I was just asleep yesterday.

 

Anyway.

I'll probably have to go back and reread day 4 a bit because I read it overnight afterwards with the assumption that tom was the mafia.

But as of now, my view is, well, similar to Reg's except I don't think it's Cobalt.

I agree Waco seems townie. Just doesn't really make sense as a wolf. Maybe I'm just giving points for effort but the way he reacted to being a wagon there by coming in and trying to solve things, re-doing ISOs to try to find spew, etc. His read on tom was wrong. But I still like how he came to it.

I don't think it's Cobalt. I dunno what to say, I just don't. Cobalt has still made sense to me all game. The only thing I'll say is that Cobalt was strongly pushing for the tom yeet near the end of EoD4 when people started to want to move off. I can see that as scum agenda. If Cobalt's a wolf, he literally needs the tom yeet to win the game. If people go elsewhere into the PoE and then JOATs resolve, suddenly that's a yeet used on someone who would've been PoE'd anyway (theoretically he would've thought this was waco at the time) and you can't get tom anymore.

You might say "well why would he make himself obvious like that" but if it was a yeet he needed or else he loses the game, he'd have no choice.

That said, it also just makes sense for a town!Cobalt who thought tom was a wolf, and it's what I would've said if I was there.

 

Let me put it this way:

The number of times I've been in a situation where myself and another townie are in the PoE all game and we're agreeing on our worldview constantly and everyone is saying "they must be the PoE, they're totally scum and the fact that they're disagreeing with the PoE just proves it", that other townie just always turns out to be town.

I'm not sure it's ever happened that the person in the Cobalt position has actually been a wolf who has just, what, pocketed me via mindmeld despite everyone else constantly calling them scum?

But that's not an argument. That's just me explaining my thoughts because well its 6am and there's no one else here. And I'm in kind of a dumb position where if people want Cobalt dead then it's gonna happen and I just don't know if I have anything I can do to fight it or if I even want to. But my vote probably won't go there except for ensuring maj if it's what people wanna do.

 

@Dels - The rereading I did overnight led me to think that Vaimes scum is actually very possible here, I guess this is where you end up after your rambling thoughts on the game? Can you talk to me about your thoughts on him more uh, directly in a "non PoE" sense please?

Can you talk about your town read on Cobalt in a non "i've mindmelded with them all game" sense, because I feel like you could maybe attribute that sort of thought process to well...Amy too and well Amy was mafia?

I probably suggest you look at some Cuth & Amy spew and share your thoughts on it too.

 

So, yeah, that leaves Vaimes.

I'm glad you're god-legacying Fonti as town but not Vaimes, because I was worried I was gonna come into today having to get into a dumb fight about it because I was gonna be defending Waco and Cobalt.

Vaimes is just the most likely for me, from PoE. Do I have a case? No. Have I ever had a case in my life? Pfft. But I think Waco and Cobalt are town. Can Vaimes make sense as a wolf? Sure. It'd mean he went into the game with a good attitude and was able to not look terrified about being scum. Maybe easier to do day 1 since Reg (or Newcomb or Eido) weren't in the game? I dunno, the meta's not a clear for me this late in the game. I suspected Vaimes on day 1 because I felt the way he was treating the Wisp wagon was very hands-off, just making sort of snarky comments about it while others drove it. Someone (I think Waco?) established that this has been sort of a pattern for Vaimes all game, and I agree. He hasn't really been hands-on with any of the game's main events? The closest he got is his sympathetic defense to tom yesterday.

There's been various talk about how scum would or would not treat the wagon on a day when the lynch was predetermined. Tom's entire legacy on Waco was "It was obvious Cuth was going down day 3 but Waco acted like he didn't realize that" and that's like. No, on a day the wagon is pre-decided, scum can either join it, or they can defend it for wifom-y cred, or they can just do their thing. So, yesterday (2 days ago rather), it was "clear" tom was going down. (Until he didn't, but the scum definitely read the thread and "knew" it was gonna be tom) So, same concept - If Vaimes is with Amy, he can just hard push tom, yeah. Or he can just join the wagon by default. Or he can show sympathy, either for cred or just to look independant.

One might also make the argument that Vaimes being the only person not to get royally pissed off at tom could've been because he knew Tom was town and genuinely felt bad. But that gets into murky emotional territories that aren't healthy for the game so please don't respond to this paragraph. Just. I've been there, as scum, watching an entire town rage at a townie and just not being able to bring myself to join in.

I'll try and take a closer look at Vaimes interactions with Cuth/Amy again but I don't recall them ever being strong. I think Waco covered a lot of this and I looked at it but without postnum links, y'know.

 

Funny ninja.

Uh, before I respond to your other thing I'll just sort of wrap up here.

The only other person I didn't just talk about above is, myself.

I don't wanna talk about myself. I try to avoid it as much as possible. I'm really into "just do your thing and let people read you based off that" nowadays.

But I'll just say, I fucked up on Amy (not just fucked up but like, I really defended her, and I pushed for tom over her, strongly) and if I get yeeted that's just fair.

(I'm saying this now, but if I start getting votes I'll probably go rabid. Sorry, I know myself and I know that any time I've ever said "I understand being yeeted" it has never lasted >_>)

But I don't wanna go rabid so maybe not this time. But I'm in the PoE, and we have 3 yeets left. I really wanted to say "I take Vaimes -> Waco, and then if I'm left in final 3 it's fair if I get yeeted since I was wrong". But I dunno, suddenly I'm not sure I wanna lock that in. I'll reread Cobalt. So just ignore this for now.

In an ideal world we just trust Reg's read on Gemma and Fonti, I clear myself, and boom we yeet all 3 other non-clears and win. But I don't think I can clear myself and now I'm in this stupid position where I should feel confident about a 2-yeet-order and instead I'm somehow worrying the scum will end up being the one person I say not to yeet. (who I'd have to vote in final 3 anyway if it came to that and I was alive)

Rambling done, but there's my worldview. Pending change based on rereading which I will try to do but not until this afternoon probably.

 

Thanks for that, and is very much what I wanted to see from you, am p confident you're town here.

I had some notes on Vaimes that I was holding back until people came in and posted but I guess no real point doing so anymore, some of it is stuff you touched on above

I went into some of my concerns with Vaimes's play yesterday, he responded to some but reading back over it I don't think it fully moves the needle for me. Went through his ISO overnight and there's only like small things here and there that make me think he's town; stuff like the lemonade comment, his EOD1 stuff re; Fonti, some interactions Amy->Vaimes direction that feel less likely to be to a partner, should note there's actually Vaimes->Amy, or Vaimes->Cuth that makes me think they're unaligned.

I think his handling of the Tom/Amy situation yesterday is probably close to how I'd have played it as scum (not that I'd have gotten that deep in the game, or gotten away with it) in that it's mostly low impact, and then when it looked inevitable that Amy wouldn't be yeeteed doing some soft distancing/bussing stuff knowing that Amys alignment gets revealed and he looks better, is sort of the stuff that's needed to endgame here.

I still feel like there's certain posts of his that look like him defending Cuth and his vote switch EoD2 to Jarizok over Tom objectively looks p bad, and it being at a time when Waco just got back into the thread (And if Wacos town mafia would have known he'd scum read Jarizok for most of the game, and therefore knew where he was voting) fits having a scum agenda there. I don't really get the reasoning behind him switching at all either; he thought Cobalt was town and therefore changed? But thinking Cobalt is town doesn't equate to Jarizok being mafia; there was never something that said 'one of them had to be mafia'?

I don't think I've seen the level of Town!Vaimes type play that I'm used to in this game, and I get that one possibility is what he said just laziness from him thinking I'm in the game and just going to step back from that but another is him just being mafia and with my reads on most players in the game the latter is looking more likely.

Here's just some Vaimes stuff throughout the game;

VC at the time;

Vote Count:
Cobalt (4): Fontisian, Jarizok, Vaimes, Regfan
Fontisian (3): Sloth, Dels, Cobalt
Jarizok (2): Rubicon, Amy
Cuth (1): Gemma
Amy (1): Tom
Tom (1): Waco

--------

Pretty much no other real mentions of Cuth between those quoted posts, or after them from Vaimes. There's just no real...progression on his read on the slot that leads towards voting there, or just sitting and remaining there. And it's not really how I'm used to seeing Vaimes play as town. I think it's possible he moved to Cuth there thinking the odds Cuth gets yeeted is low given the votecount and thought it'd be a good distancing type thing. And well then the wagon just took off and he couldn't swing off it without looking bad later, until the EoD happened and he managed to move to Jarizok.

Vote: Vaimes

 

Oof. It hurts.

But you're not wrong.

Anyway, I'll assume my post above covers what you asked about Vaimes, at least to some extent.

About Cobalt, I'll try to re-ISO him later and see if I can make a case. But for now I'll grant you my self-patented "gamestate" read:

If Cobalt is a wolf, he has literally played to lose.

If he's a wolf, he found himself very early on in a PoE'd position, and decided that rather than doing things to get himself out of that position, he has doubled down on the things that got him suspected, and ensured he'd only look worse.

We're going back to the Fonti thing here about "stubbornly sticking to reads vs static reads" which I'll admit I still don't fully get, but the fact is if Cobalt is scum he was getting suspicion for his read on Fonti and for his read on Tom. And even before Fonti gave that read on his meta, he chose to stick with it. He was told "we suspect you because your only strong reads are on these people" and he... continued to only have strong reads on those people.

And then the tom/Amy thing happened. If Cobalt's a wolf, he chose to hard push tom. How is that gonna end for him? It'd mean that, theoretically, tom gets yeeted day 4, then Amy day 5, and then we'd be at day 6 and town would have 3 yeets left and he'd need to somehow hope that those 3 don't ever hit him. Despite him being PoE all game and then hard pushing tom, which he'd know he'd look awful for.

And you can say "well it's wifom" but it isn't, because even if people went "well is that really how cobalt would handle the joat claims as wolf", they'd still ultimately townread everyone else more than him and just yeet him for it. scum!Cobalt can't rely on there being a town!Dels to say "nah he's twtbaw" (and even with me saying it he's still likely to die today!) hence why wolves don't make those suicidal plays.

From wolf!Cobalt's PoV, he'd wanna survive 3 yeets. In that world, Rubi is alive here and very likely not yeeted. In that world, Cobalt knows Vaimes is town and he probably thinks that your/gemma/fonti's townread on him (vaimes) is gonna hold up. In that world, Cobalt knows that you (Reg) will still be alive and that you were saying Amy/Dels not w/w.

So does Cobalt really have a plan to get 3 misyeets other than himself, with how he played? He'd basically need them to be... me (hoping fonti/others overrule your read on me), waco, and... then he'd have to survive a final 3 with... uh, who would be there? Rubi, in this world? And he'd think he could survive all that despite hardpushing tom?

Towns in mafia games take the path of least resistance more often than not and Cobalt's play would've just made him the path of least resistance, especially through 3 more yeets.