And I know the counter-argument to the above:

Sometimes wolves just play bad. Sometimes they're just wolfy.

Yeah, Cobalt could just be a wolf who, like, wasn't putting in high effort to the game and therefore got PoE'd by default / for static reads, and then when the joat thing happened he just felt he needed to push tom or he'd have no chance of winning. I actually just said that above, so, y'know what, my bad, scratch my point about how wolf!Cobalt wouldn't go so hard on tom, maybe he really did need to because his only way of maybe winning was with a tom yeet. Debatable on if he'd push it super hard from the start of the day though rather than just sheeping, but.

Putting a case down in writing often helps me see if I really wanna stand by it or not. I dunno. You let me know if you think it's valid reasoning or if it's not worth following that strongly here.

 

Anyway, don't lock in my order of Vaimes -> Waco -> Cobalt just yet. It was pending and I'm planning on rereading a bit this afternoon and I'm slightly doubting if I want Waco > Cobalt or Cobalt > Waco after this. My order matters because if I'm wrong on the first 2 I still end up in a deathmatch with the 3rd at final 3 and have no reason to believe the townie there (theoretically Gemma or Fonti?) would choose right. So I'm gonna put in some effort to solidify this. See you later.

 

I think your reasoning makes sense in a "I can understand how/why you think that way". I also think you putting all your thought process and headspace down on it is great because it just makes me more confident you're town here which is probably the more important thing. If others come in and see that this game is super ez, and if they don't I'll run it through for them to get on the same page.

But at the same time I'm looking at like a Cuth/Amy/Cobalt scum team and looking back at D2 and thinking 'how can Cobalt play this hugely differently to actually win as scum' and not coming up with much of an answer, if that's the scum team there's huge amounts of town reads on town players and an all town core forming. It's hard to break that up and do things at a stage where we're yeeting mafia, so I definitely think it's possible he was boxed into playing it this way and hoping that the VT claim thing at EOD is what's going to ride him to the win.

I..kind of just have everyone (other than Vaimes) at high certainty levels of town that I just think he has to die at some point too.

Shrug, I think we sort of agree that it's probably Vaimes and that's good enough for now.

Would like to see where others are at when they come in here.

 

I am not going to be able to respond to the case on me in any meaningful capacity. There’s no wifi, service is horribly spotty, and the only free time I have is late at night or early in the morning.

My pet scumread is still fontisian if it’s not Cobalt.

 

Okay I lied, I'm still here.

I took a look at Cobalt's day 4 to see exactly how he handled the tom wagon.

He starts off by being pretty happy when its just the Amy/Tom claims. 2439 Good perspective, though not hard to fake. Only question is, since he was suspecting Tom heavily all game, should he maybe not have been so happy, and instead remained tentative while waiting to see if the final 3 claimed?

He's happy again when Sloth claims in 2451 and he concludes the counter is between Amy and Tom in 2458. He doesn't actually immediately take a stance at all.

His stance comes in 2523 which is after Gemma votes and unvotes tom, I say I'm always voting tom, and Reg states that he's on tom. Maybe some others I'm missing, but the point is... Cobalt doesn't take a stance on who he believes out of tom/amy until the thread concensus has clearly identified that tom is the one losing the battle.

I'm a little bit surprised about that because I would've thought Cobalt would've taken the opportunity earlier to snapread it as "Hah, Tom's probably the fake, I knew he was scum all along"

I wanna hear Cobalt's explanation for this, did you assume Tom was the fake but just didn't say so right away, and if so was there any particular reason?

Anyway, besides that, Cobalt then heavily goes in on the "we should just yeet Tom" stuff. Advocates for it due to mechanical reasons of locking the game if correct 2525.

Just a lot of "let's just yeet tom" "please let's just hammer" 2550 2612 2738 2761 2880 2949

I kind of maintain what I said earlier that I don't think a scum Cobalt pushes it that hard. At EoD, when he would need to make sure it goes through, yes, maybe. But these posts are from before that, when the thread temperature is still mostly "we're gonna maj tom". I think pushing it in such a dismissive way can only make him look worse when he thinks it's gonna happen anyway, he didn't really need to seem so desperate for it.

Posts where he justifies his scumread on tom / argues with tom: 2592 2596 2599 2600 2611 2739

This post advocates against doing the leave-the-joats plan: (which in retrospect was certainly the mechanically correct plan) 2938 This post can have wolf agenda because it's really trying to make sure town stays the course on tom at EoD. (Also 2954 2984)

I don't have any conclusions I'm just laying out thoughts and hopefully clarifying Cobalt's D4 so others don't have to ISO it, I basically linked all his posts.

 

Sorry Reg, I’m not reading your case. It’s wrong but I do not have time to address it, and reading it will probably just make me mad and I don’t want to be mad on my vacation.

Kill fontisian and Cobalt, I agree it’s probably not Waco or Dels.

Don’t really think it’s Gemma but she (and this is mostly self-admitted iirc) had a really weird personality/solving shift after Day 2 that’s kind of an elephant in the room I’ve been ignoring. Guess this is just kind of a “if the PoE is totally wrong” snap guess.

Gotta go, sorry! Try not to let the thread die, but if you rally people against me and they feel good about it I’d rather you just maj than make me sit here and fail to deal with it.

 

Now I actually have work to do though so not back until the afternoon

 

Unvote

I don't think Vaimes's responses do a lot to change my mind on things, but I'd rather not have my vote down when going to bed, and want to look more at Cobalt and some of Dels's stuff about Cobalt in the morning with fresh eyes. Will need to decide who I think is more likely inside Cobalt/Vaimes and that's going to take some more time.

@fontisian, @Gemma - I badly need you two in here and talking to me about Vaimes, definitely suggest looking through his ISO in detail, specifically his play throughout /all/ of D2 since I think it's one of the more...alignment indicative phases? and letting know what you think. Also letting me know if you agree re; Dels just being town here based on whole game play, interaction analysis, and his play today type stuff. I'm pretty confident that Cobalt<->Vaimes wins the game, and I'm probably spending more time on this than I need to, but I'd rather sort of win it as early as possible and not die and watch it somehow go to a F3 even if it's a win there. I guess having both of you come in and state reads/thoughts on each other, in case you think I'm somehow wrong on the other would be nice too, but I don't think either of you think that's the case which is good.

 

I'm doing a reread, yeah.

 

I was going to do a whole shpiel about how I never play like this if I'm a wolf here but Dels pretty much did it for me.

I'm extremely conflicted because I'm worried about Fonti being a wolf because I wanna say it's Vaimes but some of his posts just strike me as villagery.

 

@Dels Yeah that's pretty much it, I just assumed based on my hard scumread on Tom that he was the fake and didn't feel it really needed any vocalization or explanation from me at the time.

 

What I will say about Vaimes is that he has an EXTREMELY high volume of one-liner posts which is something that I think I remember seeing more from scum!Vaimes than town!Vaimes.

Town!Vaimes usually has a presence and an energy that facilitates more in-depth thought processes than just "Cobalt and Fonti are scrubs."

 

Also, Vaimes has been doing this thing where his reads turn around or evaporate with little to no real explanation

His ISO is all "I want cred for scumreading Waco" "Kill the W(aco)itch!" and now toDay he's just like "It's probably not Waco or Dels"

Like.

I just find it hard to believe that there's an actual thought process behind Vaimes's presence.

Most of his ISO is readable just on the ISO page because he's been one-linering. The way he insisted on protecting Cuth's request to not maj was a bit overdone as well (he mentioned it like 3+ times) and I think he may have been fishing for a Fonti wagon to see if it could actually gain traction.

 

This sequence is Vaimes deciding to give in and bus, followed by Vaimes identifying that the counterwagon had enough traction for him to slip on and give Cuth the extra phase.

 

Soooooo......

Vaimes's Waco read goes: town, town, scum and claiming cred for the Waco-is-scum thought, promise not to lynch, town, probably town.

None of this is natural.

 

I challenge anyone to read through the most recent like 3/4 pages of Vaimes' one liner ISO and tell me that he's a villager.

Vote: Vaimes

I was too distracted by Tom to look at this earlier and I'm mad at myself for letting him get by for so long this game.

Also he was clearly TMI'ing Tom.

 

Cobalt, yesterday you said this:

Can you explain when your read changed and why? (i.e. to get from "villagery" to the "clearly TMI" you're saying now)

 

It changed when I read through Vaimes' ISO and realized his reads on other people basically don't exist

He either doesn't remember what he read the person as previously or he flip flops on a dime.

Which is wolfy asf.

 

@Dels At the time it seemed villagery because of the way he took Tom's situation to heart but looking back at it now with different perspective it can definitely just be plain old TMI.

 

I just.

I want to believe Regfan on Font/Gemma never being wolves.

Dels has NO reason to defend me this phase as scum and yet he's done that. I'm an easy dunk if Dels is the last wolf.

Waco is Waco. There was almost no engagement or panic when Waco was the wagon instead of Rubicon, and if Waco is the last wolf, knowing his partner will 100% be mechanically dunked within the next Day phase, I think that gets a reaction out of him.

Which leaves literally only Vaimes.