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JoaT^2 15er - A Mafia Game

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Eidolonic, Jul 7, 2020.

  1. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    I'm not sure what to say. If you're scum there's no point telling you what I'm thinking, I'm about to lose. If you're town... it doesn't help you.

    Um.

    Give me a moment.
     
  2. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Oh. Ok.

    If you want to wait for Cobalt to get back to see if you get swayed again, I understand.

    Also, talking about your process on me is going to help me get there on you, so it's worth it for that.

    I, uh, I obviously really want you and Cobalt to cross vote so I don't get yeeted, but I also really do not want this choice in my hands, heh.
     
  3. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    Okay. Let me just pause, because I'm a coward, and answer this. Hopefully it matters.

    I've interacted a lot with Amy, in a mafia sense, in the past year or so. We had that game together where we were wolves. She. I'm sorry Amy, but, she just. Couldn't. She was busy IRL. I don't know. She showed up late day 1 and tried to catch up and she was not able to output any reads. She placed an OMGUS vote with nothing else and basically had to defend herself with "yeah i know i have no reads but as wolf, would i?????" and. It went badly for her and she was the day 1 yeet.

    She says that was an uncharacteristic game for her, and I'm sure she's not lying, that said she has always had a reputation for not having a great wolf game. I presumed a large part of this was lacking her town confidence, but maybe not. Apparently she's leveled up recently. As town, Amy is... she didn't used to be "confident", no, but she was just, a very natural team player who stuck her neck out for the things she believed in.

    And then recently we played a game that ended right when this one started, I think Reg and Gemma both referenced spectating it. And she was much more confident. She came in just... I dunno, really confident, she took control of the town. And she output reads like she knew what she was doing. (She mostly, sort of did. She, uh, confidently pushed an awkward townie (sort of like Wisp) to his death, and we listened, because she spoke confidently) Reg referenced this in this game as well. Anyway, she admitted the confidence was sort of an act but, either way, I thought her play this game fit her new town style of coming in and acting like she knows what she's doing.

    The other part of this is spectation chat for Champs. Where Amy hangs out a lot, and I had observed her reading games by just going through them all at once and outputting all sorts of reads. I felt, when she was catching up here, that she was basically employing those same techniques, of going through the game and being like "Okay boom, these people are villagers, easy. Okay, this post looks bad, etc". It just fit. And the things you were saying about her meta didn't line up with what I think her meta is, but obviously I was wrong. And clearly you were using some different meta there, which I see now.

    I basically said all of this day 2, just in less depth because I didn't really wanna delve into meta, I just said she was fitting how I expected her to play, which she was.

    ...Hope this helps.
     
  4. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    Yes, I'm aware I'll be passing the hot potato to you. I thought I was going to be the choice-maker but life has a way.

    I should probably wait until Cobalt gets back. I'm... really not sure if anything he can say (or will say) would change my mind. I'm sure he could. It's probably not good to vote someone when they're not here, and he does deserve a chance.

    So. Okay. I'll lay it out.
     
  5. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    I’m here.

    @fontisian - did I mention that Dels would probably swing his vote once he realized I was out of his grasp, or did you mention that?
     
  6. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    This is the worst F3 on the planet because both of you are REASONABLE.

    But whether I mentioned it in the thread or not I did predict that Dels was going to somehow swap from voting Fonti to voting me once I was no longer strongly in his camp.
     
  7. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    And Fonti I swear to god if I trusted you and you wind up voting me if me and Dels cross I will NEVER let you forget it.
     
  8. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    I see what you're saying.
     
  9. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    At a core level, you have simply just. Convinced me.

    Which I don't think I have to explain to you how you did, you've made the cases.

    I said a lot of your points were a 3 or a 4. But you have some 7s or 8s in there, and they don't really get diluted, that's not how it works.

    Those points are... well, basically the things I (and Cobalt!) have both said. The interactions you have with Amy and Cuth.

    I saw them in your ISO wall, but I went bck and looked back at them for myself as well now.

    Cuth notably had more depth in his treatment of you than he had with anyone else. Certainly more than he had with Cobalt, who, yes, he did give a v read on for a bad reason.

    He uses you for the Wisp push, and he intervenes in you/Reg and he just. Whatever. You quoted the most relevant parts.

    When we look at interactions between Cobalt and the wolves, it's a lot of stuff where both you and I have said "Would Cobalt/the wolves choose to do this?"

    i.e. Would Cobalt ping Amy, would Cobalt, like, hard defend Cuth there, etc etc

    They are things that just get solved with a "would they? well maybe they just made the decision to break comfort zone and do it" (for refuse in audacity reasons or just because they were cornered and felt they may as well)

    Whereas the things between you and Cuth, and particularly also, you and Amy, are not just a "would they". In the above examples, the only thing required to do them is "yeah, let's have a straightforward interaction, go for it"

    Whereas what happened between you and Cuth/Amy, it does not just require you to be like "let's do this", it also requires... nuance. Nuance in the way Cuth works around you, the way he takes time to explain his read on you more carefully and more in-depth than his read on anyone else, the way he talks to you more than anyone else. That doesn't just require a decision to "hey let's interact", it would also mean he pulled it off perfectly.

    And you and Amy? To not just say "hey let's distance", but to fake an interaction over a multi-table read that you're not supposed to have, bring it up, have her call it "unfair", have you back off, and then talk later about why it was unfair?

    It's a stupid situation because I don't know how to read into "would two wolves really decide on that as a play", but I have to assume the answer is no. You can't talk about other games, did you talk about it in wolfchat in front of Cuth? Doubt! Tom was in the other game too, you say? So do you really feel comfortable taking advantage of that read in this game knowing that you're dragging Tom into it as well?

    As you can see, the what ifs and etc needed are a lot more than the what ifs needed to be like "what if Amy told Cobalt to just vote Jari"

    And then, beyond all that, it's that you did push those two.

    Cuth, okay, you went on and off. You townread Cuth day 1 and a lot of day 2.

    But at the end of day 2, you have shown that you were a) strongly pushing for a Cuth yeet, while also b) eviscerating Amy. At a certain point, it goes beyond distancing, and into, like. I mean, it's too much. And the reason for that is: The setup. Because of the JoaTs. These JoaTs get stronger when 1 wolf dies, but they get exponentially stronger when a 2nd wolf dies. Because then, suddenly, the track/MD becomes a full on cop scan. Which means, if you were successful in voting out Cuth day 2, that already narrows things, but on day 2 you were not talking about tom much (lord knows I remember, it's part of why I thought someone in the "towncore" was covering for him), so you were all-in on Amy. So you had every reason to believe that playing that EoD the way you did would lead to Cuth yeeted (because Reg was pushing it and you'd imagine he gets it through with your help) AND then your other buddy would be in major danger the next day.

    And that's a lot to do for a bus. Oh, and on top of it all, even if you were bussing Cuth and Amy, you were not even trying to kill JoaTs to make sure they didn't get strong after those busses were done. You shot Reg twice! The only doubt I have is if your plan was to shoot Reg while he had you as legacy never-yeet but even then, is it enough to compensate for potentially having superpowered JoaTs alive?

    These points are all things that are more concrete than any point in Cobalt's favour.

    It's not just that "if Fonti's a wolf she chose to bus so she just wins", it's that. I mean, Cobalt and I fucked everything up and you just literally didn't, and you did so believably, your suspicion on Amy is just on from day 1. As well as things like the tom day, I did check and you're right, you did push for it to be Waco over Rubi, and that would have been better for the town because then we don't use a misyeet on Rubi later like we did with Waco.

    So.

    For me, this isn't a case of "If Fonti's a wolf, well she's a good wolf, so she wins". It's like, if you're a "good wolf" it'd be because you did really towny things and had a town agenda, and if you faked that, I mean, it's just a reason to townread you.

    You've also shown why Cobalt's play can fit as a wolf, static reads, over-defensive, etc etc. It's not my strongest thing, but it does line up. If Cobalt's a wolf I don't think he made any major attempt to pocket me. He just posted shit about tom and you and I liked it and then it went from there. It's really not impossible for those things to happen, whereas some of the stuff above leans a lot closer to, maybe not impossible, but hard to imagine. I can imagine living in a world 12 hours from now where I go "Oh, damn, Cobalt was really just a wolf and I was a fool, he was just literally being wolfy the whole time, fml" more than I can imagine one where I'm like "Wow, so Fonti really did all that stuff and faked all that solving and interactions as a wolf" I guess you can relate to this because it's the way you said you felt about me/Cobalt yesterday.

    There's probably a few more things I'm forgetting.
     
  10. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    Hi Cobalt
     
  11. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    Well, Cobalt. Feel free to respond.

    But you sound like you don't want to. You sound like you're pretty all-in.
     
  12. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    No, I'll respond. Only because a lot of what you're saying still doesn't make sense for me as a wolf.
     
  13. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    Anyway.

    This vote isn't a vote about listening to dead townies. It helps, sure. Regardless of Fonti's allignment, her quoting everything Gemma said about her day 2 helps her. But I'm not doing this "because Reg said so", I'm. Literally doing it because Fonti's arguments are good enough that I think they're right. The fact that it's the vote I'm pretty sure everyone else reading this would want, is a bonus.

    If Cobalt is town and I lose... I won't feel embarrassed. Like I said, if Cobalt is town then I townread him for as long as possible, and the reason we lose won't be because I gave up on it, it'll be because we didn't yeet Fonti on any day and I can't maintain this read in final 3 when there is so much evidence for her being town.

    The vote is also not really about feelings. By feelings, I'd stick with trusting Cobalt. I'd also say that Fonti's treatment of me and Cobalt today fit her wolf agenda. Considering turning on me only when Cobalt wants her to, and making some arguments against me that I still feel were kinda bullshit, but whatever. I'm not blaming her for doing the same thing I did to her.

    It's slightly about feelings because I have felt that Fonti has genuinely been working with me. Yesterday morning's conversation did feel good. Today's, even though the circumstances changed, she's kept the same tone and desire to talk. The way she got nervous when I said I was ready to vote was... cute. Maybe not AI, whatever.
     
  14. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    Okay. I'm not going to give you an "I'm not locked" because I... kind of am. But.

    I don't know. If you're town, you can try and tell me why I'm wrong, but it's another situation where you don't seem to think so, your posts just now were pretty darn harsh against me and trusting of Fonti, so I don't expect you to tell me why Fonti's a wolf.

    If we're both town, we both had the same feelings on her. And if she's a wolf and wins, then, hey, at least we go down together.

    I don't know. You tell me if you think there's any way to salvage this if we're town.
     
  15. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    I just. I can't imagine the mental acrobatics that it takes to pin me as a wolf with Amy and Cuth. Like, sure, I'm a wolf this game, I'm going to overtly defend BOTH of my partners because that's definitely 100% the best thing for me to do to win this game.

    Like. WHAT???

    I'm sorry. I can't. I have to claim that I'm just TWTBAW. Because I am. And it sucks that I played such a shit game that I have to claim that, but just realistically think about how wolf Cobalt would be playing this game.

    Cuth is getting bulldozed no matter what I do. Why don't I just bus for cred? Why do I draw overt attention to myself by swinging the lynch from Cuth to Jarizok? Ftr, I fully expected to be the prime lynch candidate after Cuth flipped, and I was surprised that I wasn't. Why would I put myself in that danger?

    And then the JOAT claims. Why do I overtly defend Amy instead of keeping my options open? I had been pushing Tom as scum since DAY ONE. That was a read that I believed in. That was a read that I had down since the beginning of the game and repeatedly got frustrated that nobody seemed to want to go down that road with me until the JOAT claims. Having your strongest scumread be involved in a counterclaim is a JOYOUS situation when you're a villager because it affirms your read. I thought Tom was a slam fucking dunk and you can tell by my posts that I BELIEVED that. I wasn't just making it up. It wasn't just a fake read to try and give Amy / the scumteam the advantage. I wanted Tom dead since the beginning of the game and the claims only reaffirmed that read.

    I have no reason to do the things that I did if I were a wolf. It's borderline surrealism to think that I would play the way that I have if I were on the wolf team. And once again, it sucks that my game was such shit that I have to use this to try and justify myself, but there are NO universes in which Scumbalt plays like this around his teammates.

    If I wanted to go deep, to go to F3 and win the game, I would've DUNKED Cuth. I would've hedged on Amy to keep my options open and not look like I was defending her. My Tom read would not have been so gung-ho. There were so many opportunities for me to get town credit that I just... IGNORED. If I were a wolf here. Like. I wouldn't do that.

    For fuck's sake. I'm not a wolf, I'm just bad. Fuck me if that becomes my catch phrase.
     
  16. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    That's literally my catch phrase as well.
     
  17. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    I don't feel like I have to do any more convincing for Dels because I decided last night to trust Fonti, slept on it, and decided when I woke up that I'm sticking to it.

    Therefore, Dels is a wolf and that's that. Talking myself in circles about it is just going to make my head hurt.

    If you're gonna vote me, do it. This way, if Fonti doesn't hammer, I know I made the right choice.
     
  18. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    I mean, this is the argument you made yesterday and the argument I made for you and the argument Fonti has made for you.

    So I get it, and I want to believe it, but I don't think it's as strong as what Fonti has had with the wolves. Like I said in my big post above.

    If you're town, you should quite frankly believe the same thing about me, which means there'd be no way for us to win.
     
  19. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Dels, I need a link to your most recent scumgame.
     
  20. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    Okay.

    Let's vote each other at the same time, so that if Fonti is a wolf, we both share the blame? =P
     
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