The logic I heard is that no-lynch is bad because it just sets you back at day one with one more NK'd citizen?

 

Ugh. Long day of driving was long. tl;dr incoming once I get caught up on the thread.

On the topic of first day lynches the arguement can go either way. A lynch for the sake of a lynch is obviously undesirable and something to watch for. But a lynch also generates dicussion and gives us something to work off of. And, at the same time, can eliminate a scummy Villager that could make for a vote stall later on in the game.

---------- Post automerged at 03:59 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:52 AM ----------

First off, scum eliminating iLost was dumb. Seriously. With silverlasso gone iLost had a 2/11 chance of hitting scum. 18%, not great odds. And iLost surviving the night was pretty much a guaranteed lynch for him today. Two free days for scum if they were willing to take a slight risk.

But no. NK on iLost. They're playing it safe, which says to me at least one of the scum is a conservative player. Trying to blend into the background most likely.

So now then..

Xantam:

Seemed set on lynching iLost, even after my analysis he stayed with his vote. Even through the building bandwagon you seemed set on iLost. You only changed your vote to seal the silver lynch. In hopes of 'accomplishing something'. Vote changing to a candidate you found unlikely? Why?

Schrodinger:

My initial suspicions of him were crossover from silver being suspicious. At this point I'm feeling a Villager vibe off of him.

The Great Pandemonium:

You switched to silver fast. And I mean fast. The second another candidate came up actually. You didn't even wait for my full analysis.

coleam:

Day One: You're flippant, joking around. And vote hopping constantly. You posted quite a bit, without saying a whole lot I feel. Day 2 your posts have a lot more thought into them. A lot more content.

Everyone I haven't mentioned is either giving me a Villager vibe or has posted so little I haven't got a feel for them yet.

In any case, discuss.

 

I did have one content post on day 1, though I admit that I was being a little less serious. Mostly because there wasn't much to talk about yet. There has been more to discuss today, so my posts have more substance to them.

The vote hopping had a method to it. I originally voted Schro because I wanted to throw out a lynch target to get the discussion going. Then iLost came along and made his slip of the tongue, which looked highly suspicious at the time. He made a few more posts, and I started feeling less sure of his scumminess, then you posted your big analysis which sealed the uncertainty. I also spent some time thinking about the results of different scenarios (see my content post yesterday) and realized that lynching iLost wasn't the best idea. So I rescinded. Then the bandwagon for silverlasso came along and I jumped on near the end because he didn't really have the best reasons for his (admittedly not very) scummy behavior.

 

I was trying to get some more discussion going and hopefully lynch a werewolf. I didn't change it after because I still thought he was pretty suspicious.

I'll try to post some more tomorrow, but for now I'm off to bed.

 

Yeah now we do not have any info role we are down to guessing and reading into people's posts quite a bit.

I am going to vote

Vote player: Eternity Lost

The way he is leading us by the nose makes seems a bit scummy tbh. He assumed the role quite early on and a lot of villagers are deferring to his judgement which makes me think he could be scum directing our lynches to avoid him and his scum buddy.

Also that whole not lynching iLost plan seemed to be a little contrived. Lynching someone with the whole QT slip put him at a 2/3 chance of being a wolf. Regardless of any backpedaling thereafter. We would had the same outcome if we had lynched iLost anyway since he was indeed the Seer, but now that plan he created gives him pro-town credibility.

 

Jas, why you not like me?

The plan was essentially put out so that if iLost was the Seer he'd be NK'ed and so we wouldn't waste a lynch on him. And it worked.

Coleam seems ever more suspicious to me. But he was the first to point out Schrodinger as a Wolf candidate. So if one of them is a wolf, then the other isn't (they may both be villagers though).

I am voting for Xantam because he stuck with lynching iLost all the way through and then switched to Silver right at the end.

I think the wolves wanted to kill a player of their choice last night (they try to lynch iLost) so it would be iLost + most dangerous villager dead; slightly better for them than iLost + Silver. But this was worth less than the townpoints they get for switching. So they switched late for a bad reason, eg. Xantam and Schrodinger.

 

Hmm ok I like that reasoning there. I will hold off changing my vote for now. Will be on for another 4 hours so should be ok. I would like to avoid a no-lynch since there are no power roles so lynching is really our only way of getting a dead wolf.

 

We have to lynch. People who say we don't are very suspicious imo. Coleam.

---------- Post automerged at 02:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:32 AM ----------

Where the hell is everybody?

 

As I have stated before, as a mafia rookie, I was under the impression that not lynching anyone on Day 1 was detrimental to the town. My assurances may mean nothing to you, but that's the whole truth.

Exactly my thoughts.

By your own logic, me switching my vote to ensure a lynch, was pro-town.

---------- Post automerged at 10:41 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:37 AM ----------

Oh yeah, anyway, I get a strong Agressive scum read from EternityLost so...

Vote Player: EternityLost

 

Yes, lynching is pro town. That doesn't make you town. What you did seems scummy to me.

---------- Post automerged at 03:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:56 PM ----------

I urge you again. Vote for Xantam.

---------- Post automerged at 07:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:57 PM ----------

Is anyone out there? It's been 3 hours.

 

Well personally I find Schrodinger to be suspicious having reviewed the first day.
He started the day very defensively, and while I understand that he didn't want to be lynched immediately based on very flimsy evidence. However, the reaction seemed overly strong for something which was purely a whim and odds were, wasn't going to proceed anywhere.

I can't hold the next post against him, as I too voted to lynch iLost

However, afterwards, although there were only 3 votes for silverlasso at that point, Schrodinger voted to "go with the crowd" and lynch silverlasso. At that point the bandwagon was very weak and there were still many hours left in the day. He expressed concern over not wanting to have a split lynch result, yet at that point there were 5 votes (including his own) for iLost. Resciding that vote and casting it towards another person, with fewer votes, actually would not be going with the crowd and would stastically be more inclined to result in a split lynch. From that I find his reasoning to switch to silverlasso at that point to be weak and makes me suspicious of him. Therefore:

vote player: Schrodinger

 

Alright. Do we want a lynch today? Cause if so, we are running out of time.

I say we push through a lynch. The wolves will be sure to leave those we we argue about alive as decoys. Odds are, coleam, Eternity Lost, Xantam, and Schroedinger will not get wolfed until the public voice doesn't matter. That, or they are wolves. We should get rid of them now, so even if they aren't wolves(which at least one of them probably is) we can focus on the real threat.

But, really, EternityLost: 'Why don't you like me?'

Rescind vote

Vote: Eternity Lost

 

I think both Xantam and Eternity Lost seem scummy. I don't trust either of their defenses, and the same argument against Xantam applies to Eternity Lost.

On the other hand, I think it's highly unlikely that they're both scum, since they're trying to get each other killed.

How about we kill Eternity Lost today, and if he turns out to be innocent, we kill Xantam tommorow? That way we cover both possibilities.

Vote: Eternity Lost

 

It was 'Why you not like me?' actually.

Kill Xantam and Schrodinger I say. Jas is feeling more and more suspicious too.

If I end up dead today, remember my last will and testament.

 

Duke: Last time a mafia game started with "Let's kill Schrodinger", I got first day lynched. So I'm not sure what you're trying to say.
As for the other one... yeah, I switched to silverlasso. I was under the impression that a lot of people were and I didn't want a mislynch: I didn't crunch the numbers.
I really suck at getting a read on people, I guess.

 

If I'm the only one who's going to get lynched then lynch me.

It'll get you after Xantam tomorrow.

 

Ah I'm here! Just reread the thread again. Ilost was the seer like I thought he was. My suspicion of silverlasso was off, in retrospect I wish we had done a no lynch the first day but killing silverlasso off was still better then lynching our seer. It's still really hard to tell for me who seems guilty. I'm not really used to playing Mafia over the internet but if I would have to take a gander(love that word) at a probable werewolf I would say colearm. His posts just seem a little strange to me compared to the rest of the village. I'm not so sure about Xantam either, his defense seemed a little halfhearted. As for Eternity Lost, he is either a very aggressive villager calling for random people to be lynched or a too obvious werewolf. I think the former is actually more likely then the latter. Werewolfs would probably want to keep a lower profile then that. So that's it for now, I'll check back on the thread in a bit and see what people say.

 

By my tally, the votes stand at 2 for Xantam, 1 for Schrodinger, and 4 for Eternity Lost. 6 are needed for a lynch.

As much as the vote seems to be going against Eternity Lost, I don't get a scum read off of him. It seemed like he recognized the confusion it would cause if iLost had lived through the night, so I find it unlikely that he is a wolf.

I do find both Schro and Xantam to be suspicious though, so since Xantam has one more vote on him, I'll add to that.

Vote Player: Xantam

Also, keep an eye on those with very low post counts: Yeagan and The Great Pandemonium both only have two posts each. They haven't said anything suspicious, but their lurking worries me.

 

Stuck on a boat with no wifi. Posting on my phone.

Ok. Not typing out my reasoning for this but as sure as I was iLost was town equals my certainty that Eternity Lost is as well. Take that how you will.

And right now I feel Jas, coleam and Xantam should be getting the most scrutiny, in that order. I'll get a post and vote out as soon as my computers a go.

 

I agree with you on Xantam being suspicious, and looking at it objectively, I suppose some of my posts have been a bit suspicious as well, but I'm not sure what's so suspicious about Jas apart from his vote against Eternity Lost, who we both read as pro-town.