Since, we know the nominees, it's time for a guessing game who will get the Oscar this year. Not to mention obligatory complains about omitted movies, people and how the Academy Awards suck.

My (not too serious) predictions:

Best Motion Picture of the Year - should The Artist. Will Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Because no one is expecting it to win as nobody was expecting it to get a nomination.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role - should Jean Dujardin or Gary Oldman. Will George Clooney. Everyone loves George Clooney. Missing nomination - Michael Fassbender, Shame.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role - will Meryl Streep.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role - will Christopher Plummer. Unexpected winner - Max Von Sydow for his whole career.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role - will Octavia Spencer.

Best Achievement in Directing - should Michel Hazanavicius. Will Martin Scorsese. Because Oscars for mediocre The Departed were not enough for all these years when the Academy ignored his movies.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen - should Margin Call. Will Midnight in Paris, so Allen is not sad when he will not get anything else this year.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published - should Tinker, Tailor Soldier Spy. Have no idea who will.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year - don't know. I saw only Kung Fu Panda 2. But The Adventures of Tintin without nomination was unexpected.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year - should and will In Darkness.

Best Achievement in Cinematography - will Janusz Kaminski. Can't have Spielberg's movie without even one Oscar, can we?

Best Achievement in Editing - will The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. One Award so there are no complains.

Best Achievement in Art Direction - will Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. It's the last chance to give it at least one for the whole series.

Best Achievement in Costume Design - have no idea.

Best Achievement in Makeup - may Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. Depend if it gets the award for the Art Direction or not.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score - not John Williams. Two or more nominations usually lower chances instead of making them higher.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing - will Moneyball. As a consolation prize.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing - will Drive. See above.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects - will Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

 

Ugh, this time of year again...

Okay, I'm only putting down my picks for categories I give two shits about, because as much as I wouldn't mind seeing a Harry Potter movie pick up an Academy Award, I just don't care enough about those categories.

So, considering I saw a lot of the crap on this list, let's start with Best Animated Film. My bet, given that the Oscars tend to like pretty material without a lot of thought (see, The Artist), will be that it goes to Rango, because even despite the fact the film is pretty empty of serious substance, it still looks fucking gorgeous.

I want Best Original Score to go to War Horse, but considering the juggernaut that The Artist is becoming at this point (more on this later), it's probably going there. Shame, because John Williams' classic score does a fantastic job creating atmosphere for that film.

Best Adapted Screenplay is a tricky one. I'd love to see The Descendents get it, because it was a very smartly written film, and I want to see the Dean from Community accept the award, but I'm conflicted between it and Moneyball, where one of the biggest stars of the film was the writing (because Aaron Sorkin is awesome). My guess, however, is that it goes to The Descendants, simply because it will end up being snubbed everywhere else.

Best Original Screenplay is a fucking toss-up. While, once again, it should go to Margin Call or Bridesmaids, it's probably going to go to The Artist, namely because the Academy hates comedy and probably doesn't want to reward a film with such timely and uncomfortable subject matter as Margin Call. And believe me when I say The Artist really doesn't deserve it, but once again, the damn thing's a juggernaut and it's going to scoop up a lot of shit. However, there is the real possibility Woody Allen will finally get something with Midnight In Paris, and while I'd like to see that happen, it all ties into the next category.

Best Director is a fucking toss-up. I'd like to say they'll give it to Hugo because Scorsese works his ass off with that film and really is one of the few directors to use 3D well, but I don't know. If Woody Allen is snubbed for writing, he might finally get his Oscar here, or if The Artist is that huge of a hit, it might win here too. And no, Terence Malick isn't going to get shit for directing. Why?

Well, let's hop over to Best Cinematography. Here, as much as I really disliked the film, I have to say that The Tree of Life is the best damn looking movie of the year, and it should win - but it won't. My guess is that it ends up going to War Horse, if only because the film doesn't have a shot in hell of winning Best Picture and the Academy will want to reward a film with an older aesthetic. But The Artist might sneak up and snatch this one (I certainly hope it doesn't).

As much as I'd like to write off Best Supporting Actor as irrelevant because Albert Brooks didn't get nominated for Drive (like he fucking should have been), I will cheer for Jonah Hill to win this one, if only to see a cast member of Superbad getting an Oscar. That said, Max von Sydow is probably going to win because he's older and the Academy really needs to reward the guy for all the work he's done over the past decades.

Best Supporting Actress... ugh, I really want Melissa McCarthy to win for Bridesmaids, but it won't happen because the Academy hates comedy. But since the Academy inexplicably likes the shitheap that is The Help, it's probably going to go to one of Octavia Spencer or Jessica Chastain.

Best Leading Actress is interesting for me, because I think there's going to be an upset here. Meryl Streep is the expected favourite for The Iron Lady, but critics haven't been kind to that film, namely seeing it as a lot shallower than it should have been, and frankly, the script wasn't strong enough to give Streep the opportunity to give as much of a performance as she could have. So here's my off-the-wall pick: I think Rooney Mara's got this one. The Academy will want to reward The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo in some way, and I think this is it.

Best Actor is interesting, namely because there's a lot of talent here. I don't think Jean Dujardin is going to win (thankfully), namely because he doesn't give nearly a strong enough performance, and nor do I think Clooney's got this one (because as much as he is liked, he wasn't quite good enough in The Descendants to clinch this one). And hell, Demian Bichir put together a really strong performance in A Better Life, so there's a chance there. And as much as I want Brad Pitt to win for Moneyball, I wouldn't mind seeing Gary Oldman finally get his due. My guess is a two-horse race between Oldman and Bichir, with Oldman winning out in the end, simply because everybody likes the guy and he's put in a lot of work. Although no love goes to this category for snubbing Fassbender and Shame, because that movie's fucking amazing, and Fassbender acts his ASS off.

And then we come to Best Picture... yeah, The Artist is probably going to win, and it sure as hell doesn't deserve to. I'm sorry, but as somebody who actually knows film, to see silent moviemaking recreated wasn't a big enough deal for me, particularly considering how damn shallow the script was. Hugo, Midnight In Paris, Moneyball, The Descendants, War Horse, and The Tree of Life are all better films, but they won't win. But yeah, The Artist will win, and in five years will get added to the list of films like Dances With Wolves, English Patient, and The Hurt Locker where the statement that these films won Best Picture is followed by 'REALLY'?

 

tl;dr:

/shitty year for films

 

The only thing I care about is seeing Bret McKenzie get an oscar for 'Man or Muppet'.