1. Didn't the Lannister's lose their fleet in the Greyjoy Rebellion? Hence why the Redwyne fleet was besieging Dragonstone?
2. Hadn't Robb largely smashed the Lannister armies at this point, meaning Castery Rock & Lannisport are relatively undefended and definitely not expecting a Greyjoy attack?

I'm not convinced.

And most of Tywin's forces are in the crownlands fighting off Stannis, or in the riverlands fighting Edmure or Robb. Granted, the Tyrells could send men north to aid the Lannisters, but they're still also dealing with Stannis loyalists in the Stormlands and the Narrow Sea, so...

It's weaker than R + L = J, so not really. No actual thoughts, Ash? I weep and beat my bosom in despair.

1. Lannisters have gotten pretty smashed, and losing Lannisport & Casterly Rock would mean they'd lost pretty big chunks of their wealth to raise men and mercenaries. Robb rampaging around the non-shore parts wouldn't have helped either.

2. And they're wealthier, would provide more men in the future provided he can keep them in-line, and are centrally placed for future conquests.

3. And he doesn't hate the Lannisters? That'd be a first amongst the Great Houses of Westeros. I get that he hates the Starks because they took Theon (and maybe because Ned took part in the Rebellion campaign that killed his elder sons, but look at how he treats Theon on his return. How he's clearly groomed Asha/Yara for command. His hatred can't be so deep as to ignore wealthier targets.

4. "Could smash him back at their leisure", implies they could do so after Robb was handled, which makes his attacking another independent instead of the would-be rulers of all all the more confusing. Why attack the weak guy and be destined to lose it all later instead of attacking the strong guy with allies and crippling them for good. Tywin was basically fighting on three or four different fronts and not doing so well until Balon stepped in to fuck Robb over/Mace wanted his daughter to be queen.

 

Because the richest region can garner some sort of defense, unlike the North, which has no navy, and an army busy fighting a war.

And plot device. I think G.R.R.M has a bit of a fetish for Stark misfortune.

 

From Martin:

Nope. I think that was done after Theon was sent. And even so Tywin still has his own army. Why would Balon assume that Robb would find a trail with his magical wolf and beat an entrenched army?

Tywin was building an advantage for himself. Robb cannot move to take Harrenhal or King's Landing. Moving to attack the west worked because 1-magic direwolf and 2-complacent commander.

Now, the Greyjoys have an advantage but they'd much rather beat on the defenseless kid..

Stannis loyalists? Not really. They have like one castle to take. Besides, isn't it the wrong time period?

You're assuming that the Greyjoys can take a castle that has never been taken. And that they can knock out both Lannisport and Casterly Rock. If Stefford is still alive he has an entire army to throw at them. If not they can buy everyone who can hold a sword and every hedge knight in a thousand mile radius and make the Greyjoys bleed.

If you can hold them. The fact that they're wealthy means that someone is more likely to come for them. You think that Renly is gonna leave an entire kingdom in the hands of a secessionist? He'd give it to a loyal lord. So would Joff or any sane king. And when they come Balon will lose.

Why? Seeing Theon like that would only make him hate the Starks more. They took his son. Not just physically but in a more fundamental way.They took his identity. He is not Ironborn. He cannot be trusted. Balon may be gruff towards him but don't mistake that for lack of emotion.

Destined to lose it all? I always find it strange that people take this for granted. Balon doesn't know about magic crannogmen trails.Balon has no reason to trust Robb. I wouldn't.

So, Tywin was in a good position when Balon joined the war. It doesn't matter anyway. Balon is not- just- trying to be an opportunistic vulture. He wants to keep what he's earned not just run off with gold. He cannot hold the West without constant trouble. His rule would probably be limited to the city he takes. It's better that he takes the north.

If he fails he laughs at Robb. If he fails in the West Tywin can mount some attack even if the Greyjoy fleet is more numerous. If he lands he's in all sorts of trouble.

 

No, Tywin replaced the ships that had been lost. He is no fool. (x)

No, they would not have been relatively undefended, if you are saying relative to the North. Relatively undefended compared to say, the Vale, yeah.

Well, for one, I hardly think most of his forces are there, there would be more men left in the Westerlands than were left in the North. And two, these places are not nearly as far away as you think they are. It's not that hard to reroute back to the West from the Riverlands and Crownlands.

Weaker, but no less true.

Casterly Rock has never been taken. They could take Lannisport, but it'd just be a matter of the Lannisters retaking it...

Again, say Balon did take Lannisport (because I doubt he could take Casterly Rock), he would lose it as soon as there was military attention back on it. The North has Moat Cailin, a lynchpin in defending the North. Hell, the North would still be independent, if Aegon I hadn't had dragons.

He really does hate the Starks far more than the Lannisters, as much as he dislikes all non-Ironborn men. But again, I reiterate that the North is 10x easier to hold than the Westerlands, that is what really made the decision.

Balon is thinking that he takes the North, Robb is crushed, unable to retreat home, due to Balon holding Moat Cailin. Then, when the Iron Throne turns on house Greyjoy lording it up in the North, they can't, because they don't have dragons, which was the only way the North was subjugated, anyway, due to its defenses.

 

Hm. I've been tempted to try and write a one-shot where Theon kills Balon prior to the campaign's start, and desperately improvises his way into becoming King of the Iron Islands by appealing to their greed and directing them against the Lannisters and Tyrells.

Problems:
Theon pulling it off - It's Theon, afterall. He has neither credibility or prestige amongst the Ironborn at this time, and they're more liable to kill him and just crown one of his kin.
Asha's response - She'd probably gut him.
Victarion and Euron's response - Victarion might stay loyal, Euron would be more than happy to challenge him for it. And he'd have more supporters than Theon.
How to write - Serious with Theon taking charge and stepping up, or comedic, with Theon basically just improvising his ass off from scene to scene?

Edit: Cheers guys.

 

Comedic, with Theon managing to masterfully play Euron and everyone else. Only way I think it would work. Too many plotholes if it is serious.

 

I would write it like Gaius Baltar in BSG. He's batshit insane and has very little idea what he's doing yet he always comes out smelling like roses somehow. He just flails about enough to get out of trouble.

But I think it would be better if Theon didn't kill Balon. It doesn't jive with his character imo and it's gonna be impossible to explain away the fact that the IB didn't drown Theon in saltwater for regicide. Just accelerate Balon's death. Then you have a good reason to bring Euron back because he arrived literally almost as soon as Balon was dead,making people suspect that he killed him

 

The thing is, is that the Ironborn don't have the military might to subdue any of the kingdoms and even if they had the might the don't have the tact to maintain their rule. There only hope if they wish to gain independence is collapse of central authority and a return to multiple decentralised kingdoms. Dogpiling the most powerful advocate for that is just ridiculous. Does anyone really thing that whichever other faction ends up prevailing (Stannis, the Lannisters or even some Targaryen or other) is not going to turn their attention to the tiny group of islands offshore and come down and crush them just like Robert did back in the day.

@Ash: Yeah, the letter was extremely poorly worded for the culture it was being directed at it. It speaks to the ignorance of Robb about the Ironborn culture. I would say that he should have had Theon help him write it, but Theon seems equally ignorant.

It would have been better and more diplomatic if Robb had said that they could both seize their kingdoms together from the Iron Throne. Though from what I can see I don't think any amount of correct wording or diplomacy could have averted Balon from attacking the North.

 

You keep saying that they had no chance when all indications show that they were doing pretty well. Show where the IronBorn were so outnumbered that victory was hopeless. They don't have to crush all the north under their heel. Undermining Stark power will give them time to attack the survivors individually after they've dug in. They took almost everything on the west coast. They could feasibly keep it especially with winter coming.

 

Scrib, they do have to crush the North and then they have to beat all claimants to the North if they wish to establish themselves as an independent kingdom with part or all of the North under their control. They have taken most of the west coast but they are in the process of losing it. Moat Cailin is gone and Deepwood Motte too. Undermining Stark power is all well and good. They did that very well and really kicked the Kingdom of the North and the Riverlands in the balls.

My point is that that is irrelevent. Doing all that just clears the way for a Lannister/Sansa takeover. Or Bolton/fArya control. If you are in an independence war its poor strategy to jump on another guy who is in an independence war in another part of the country. Central authority, that claims a right to the whole of the Seven Kingdoms and to a unified kingship is the problem. It's pointless and counterproductive to undermine the Starks whilst leaving the Lannisters, Stannis and the Targs out there.

Euron's strategy is bolder and makes more sense. Attempting to claim and rule the whole while changing the rules of the game with dragons is plausible.

 

Joanna probably forcibly separates Cersei and Jaime. Or tries to. Tywin is likely a teeny bit more reasonable in general, but is still Tywin Lannister.

Balon Greyjoy really, really, really hated the Starks after the Greyjoy Rebellion. He wasn't going to pass up a chance for revenge. What "made sense" wasn't anywhere near the top of Balon's thinking.

Sending Theon to negotiate with him was also a horrible idea because it straight-up reminded Balon that they turned his only remaining son into a "greenlander" as Scrib said. Strategy entered into it too (the bulk of the Northern forces were a looooooooooooong way from home and the Lannisters had a fleet), but yeah.

Also, Theon wouldn't have the balls to off Balon. Theon doesn't even particularly want to be a "true" ironborn.

 

As opposed to the West,where they only have to beat...the exact same number of people.

But really, they have a better chance of defending against the stragglers in the North. If those people cannot beat them the land they are on is defacto theirs.

Because Balon died and they left for the Kingsmoot.

Because Kingsmoot.Most of the people left to vote. And even then the leftover scum fought hard enough that the Northmen- even from the North- had to use Theon. Ramsay comments on how they fought off or killed (not sure) three times their number.

See above. None of this has anything to do with their plan failing on a tactical or strategic level. This is like claiming that the Mongol's strategy was bad because they pulled back when the Khan died.

Yes they did.

Why? They have the North bottled up. Robb was probably not going to die. the war should have stretched on much longer. They'd have had their hands full fighting both the Northmen and Riverlanders. And winter was coming. Also: it's very difficult to know how much of what Tywin tells Tyrion he means.

Meh. The Boltons beat back the leftover Ironborn scum. Don't take it for granted that they can fight off everyone.

Well, Balon could swear fealty now. The main reason he had to rebel to seize any land was because of how robust Robert's empire was (It really is remarkable how close Robert was to full harmony only to fuck it up and have it fucked up for him). It had alliances with every single northern country. Balon cannot conquer without rebelling because anyone he would attack is a close ally of the king. Not so now. Balon might be proud enough to not swear fealty but he can certainly seek an alliance to let time go by while the southerners all fight it out. Given the huge fucking mobilization it's quite possible that they'll all expend themselves. Balon is in a good position,he could seek autonomy in all but name depending on how strong his enemies are.

Attacking the Lannisters or Stannis is pointless because he can gain nothing. Central authority is unlikely to collapse no matter what you think of Robb and Balon cannot beat Renly or the Lannisters. The best he can do is claim what he can.

 

The latest episode of my podcast is up here, as well as on iTunes, for anyone interested. This episode covers the History of the Kingsguard, and is safe for any show-only fans.

 

You have a podcast?

 

No, I lied.

 

So the links I've found for streaming all have a dubbing error. In the final minutes of the episode a random song cuts in over the voices. Can anyone tell me what Bolton says after "you think you're the smartest person..."

 

Spoiler

Locke (that is who that is):"You think you're the smartest man there is...that everyone alive has to bow and scrape beneath your boots."
Jaime: "My father..."
Locke: "And if you get in any trouble, all you've got to do is say 'my father' and that's it, all your troubles are gone. Have you got something to say? You don't want to say the wrong thing. You're nothing without your daddy. He ain't here. Never forget that. Here, this should help you remember."

BAM chops off hand.

 

The Tyrion, Bronn and Podd scene was :awesome.

Spoiler

Also, was the guy who saved Theon meant to be Ramsay Snow? I'm uncertain. Can't remember the books well enough to recall if something like this happened.

 

It didn't happen on screen, but this is a good portrayal of what probably happened, aka a fuckton of psychological and physical torture, completely and utterly turning Theon into what he becomes come Book Five. So yes, it's gonna be Ramsay.

 

The "you little bastard" line was meant to be some foreshadowing.