I'm against Snowvon because I gut town read him pretty hard.

I would be comfortable with a Maiden or Mathblade lynch today. Everything else is off the table, except in the case of a no lynch.

Vote: Mathblade

for now while I re-evaluate, and because this should be the counter wagon for today (and yet votes are spread? are scum trying to ensure Maiden stays the lynch today, if she's town?)

---------- Post automerged at 03:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:59 AM ----------

And fyi, I wouldn't consider active questioning a reason to town read someone. The difference is whether you think they're trying to solve the game [as a player without info of a scum team] vs. trying to appear so. The difference is very subtle with a good player, but it pretty much has to exist at some level

---------- Post automerged at 03:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:00 AM ----------

I want more on this. "Analyzing other players" Quotes or it didn't happen

---------- Post automerged at 03:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:01 AM ----------

Well shit, am I the only one on right now?

---------- Post automerged at 03:05 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:02 AM ----------

Also, because some players have this knowledge but not all:

I was the Seer pre-reroll. As for now, by lynch or night death, you'll have to kill me to find out what I am

I did not know Maiden + Lyrium were pre-reroll scum, and I don't think it's fair only some players know that.

And screw you Ika and Rubicon, because I'm the one being night killed tonight (WIFOM).

 

Nope, I'm online.

I'm seriously puzzled at how anyone wants to lynch MathBlade after #453.

---------- Post automerged at 01:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:05 AM ----------

I figure you'll probably shoot me for being the only one here who seriously scum-reads you

 

Free town points for answering this question:

Should you be checked by the Seer? Why/why not?

---------- Post automerged at 03:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:10 AM ----------

Oh hello Rubicon!

Do you have any unaligned pairs from reading through the thread? I need some if you could help out there.

 

I've got 19 unaligned pairs but I'm trying to decide the best way to write them up. If my strong town reads + unaligned pairs are correct then the game is solvable within our 4 mislynches, but I'm pessimistic on that actually working.

 

Are those 19 unaligned pairs with posts confirming why? I'm regretting not marking them down as this game progressed (something I think I need to do from now on, kept putting it off due to being on my phone)

---------- Post automerged at 03:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:14 AM ----------

I'm currently trying to PoE assuming the following are town:

Town {Ika, Lyrium, Dermon, Snowvon, Sloth, Atum}

Do you disagree with any of these? What's your opinion on the scum team if these players all suddenly got modkilled right now and were revealed town (aka confirmed town)

 

Yeah, I did interactions analysis on almost everyone earlier noting down post numbers. Assuming we get 8 hours twilight, I'll post them in the morning.

 

TerRaine (1) – LochNess
Rubicon (1) - Maiden
Sloth (1) – TerRaine

I don't like this vote spreading. What's your opinion? Post #543 freeze-frame on votes

---------- Post automerged at 03:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:17 AM ----------

Why after a lynch but before night start?

 

Lyrium/Snow/Sloth are town. Atum is probably town. I lean toward this being ika's town game, but I've read him wrong D1 before - he's easier to read in the long term (does he keep up this level of scumhunting all game? etc.). Not willing to put him in any townbloc at the moment.

I don't have a town-read on Dermon.

If all of those players are town, I'd look at you/LochNess/Maiden/Burkion. Within that group, Maiden mostly only works with LochNess and Burkion.

I'm kind of liking TerRaine's wall and I don't think MathBlade faked her towntell.

I'm going to sleep soon and won't have time to write anything serious before deadline. I'm focusing on writing a valiant defense of Snowvon before passing out.

---------- Post automerged at 01:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:25 AM ----------

I see you've moved Dermon to your town group without saying why but I'm too tired to do anything about it.

 

Agreed on Ika, he usually ramps up but his game in general has evolved (he's much more motivated post-ing wise these days). Long term is the best indicator for him and he gives good analysis as town

@Rubicon

You didn't really answer my question. Assume all those players were modkilled and confirmed town. What do you think of the game state then? What do you think of the remaining players?

---------- Post automerged at 03:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:28 AM ----------

I have indeed for my current analysis (Dermon town)

---------- Post automerged at 03:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:28 AM ----------

Please answer the question I asked you as well as you can before sleeping/leaving. It makes a difference (if it makes you feel better, I'm pretty exhausted and rereading the entire day right now)

---------- Post automerged at 03:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:29 AM ----------

Why do you say this to Ika, but you say you haven't read my posts well/really hard-line question my read on you?

 

That was your cue to explain your Dermon read, but I guess not explaining it is interesting too.

I think I did answer. If Ika, Lyrium, Dermon, Snowvon, Sloth, Atum are town that leaves you, MathBlade, TerRaine, Burkion, LochNess and Maiden. I would be surprised if MathBlade was scum and TerRaine's last post makes me think she's probably town. Therefore I would be left looking at the four remaining players, who I would currently rank you > Maiden > LochNess on the sliding scale of scummy (with Burkion null). I don't think you were bussing Maiden.

That said, this is just a hypothetical based on assuming a bunch of apparently arbitrary town flips, so...

---------- Post automerged at 01:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:36 AM ----------

What do you think of Sloth's reason for town-reading Maiden?

 

That's because I'm still doing my own reread and I don't want to interrupt my thought processes (your answers are relevant to them hence why I want to continue my thoughts first)

---------- Post automerged at 03:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:39 AM ----------

That's the point of the hypothetical. It helps me judge between the pool of players left with your insight, plus if you turn out scum it's awkward to give a weird situation to scum and force them to delineate

---------- Post automerged at 03:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:40 AM ----------

Sloth's read on Maiden is causing me to doubt mine, hence my vote being moved for now (the fact that she was scum before is relevant, though I think she should be more forward that she was scum before)

 

If you've already seen something from Dermon that was enough to move your read from squarely null to calling him town and removing him from your PoE, you should be able to just say it.

And if you're able to interrupt your thought process long enough to answer my question about Maiden, you should be able to answer my question about Dermon.

 

Focused reread results:

(TerRaine) Don't like 343
(LochNess) Overall obsession with Sloth?
(LochNess) Don't like end of 445


TerRaine:
Post #232 - slight distancing from lochness
Post #285 - slight distancing from Maiden
Post #432 - dialogue with Maiden?

LochNess:
Post #353 - vote distancing from TerRaine
Post #428 - soft association with Maiden?
Post #445 - slight distancing TerRaine

Maiden:
Post #408 - vote distancing from Rubicon?
Post #508 - distancing from MathBlade or potential counter wagon?

Throwing around the idea of a LochNess + TerRaine scumteam.

Notes: Should Maiden flip town, look at Atum a LOT lot closer

Vote: Maiden

Considering the time left in the day and history with trouble lynching at day end, not worth moving away from here.

Short of Post #408, none of these players really mentioned Rubicon in a way that pinged me, which is also alarming.

Maiden, final reads/players to focus on during twilight would be hella nice.

---------- Post automerged at 03:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:47 AM ----------

I'm assuming he's town along with the rest of that block and doing a focused analysis of the remaining players. Trying to see if I can ping a scum team among the remaining players with that assumption.

Reasons for the assumption: he's posting infrequently + his posts are actually very insightful. If he had decent pressure today, I would townread him for it. He was not pressured today, and thus I can't draw a genuine reaction from him for today. But I like his posts so far - at the least, if he is scum I think he's contributing in a way that will result in his own downfall. He's drawn a high bar for himself insight-wise, which I don't think is smart for scum (and he appears to be a smart player so far)

---------- Post automerged at 03:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:50 AM ----------

LochNess + TerRaine. Early distancing, calling each other slight scum reads but nothing really active going on there in terms of scumhunting each other/voting each other etc. What do you think, possible? Have I missed anything important in terms of those two with each other?

Burkion is effectively null today so this theoretically assumes he's town since it totally ignores his presence in the game

---------- Post automerged at 03:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:53 AM ----------

Feeling more confident on 2 scum in:

{TerRaine, Maiden, LochNess, Burkion}

Upon some more thought

---------- Post automerged at 03:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:57 AM ----------

(on Dermon, genuine reaction as in, if he had acted the way he did today WITH vote pressure I would give him a town read bump, but he didn't have much pressure today and it's viable that he could be scum that coasted reasonably today. But for today and for this late-night analysis I'm happy with him)

---------- Post automerged at 04:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:58 AM ----------

Still here Rubicon?

 

barely
/10chars

 

Anything in particular you want me to answer? In case I peace/pass out myself

 

I thought TerRaine's early jump on LochNess looked more like opportunistic scum jumping on a reason to attack a townie than like distancing, if either of them are scum. I'm kind of skeptical that a LochNess + TerRaine team would be pushing each other in this way, but maybe. I lean town on TerRaine.

 

Site died on me ugh

---------- Post automerged at 04:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:28 AM ----------

I doubt it from one angle, but werewolves are screwed in this game if they're connected (which begs non-committal stances between them the most/avoiding no interaction whatsoever?). Idk I'm getting too tired to think about this so I'm calling it a night.

---------- Post automerged at 04:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:30 AM ----------

Ps: hope to see the valiant snowmen defense youve been working on

 

Anyone got a vote count?

 

Updated vote count:

Maiden (5) – ika, Snowvon, Rubicon, MathBlade, Citrus
Snowvon (1) – Sloth, Maiden
TerRaine (1) – LochNess
Ika (1) – Dermon, TerRaine


Not voting (3) - Burkion, Atum, Lyrium

13 alive, 7 to lynch.

4 hours and 30 Minutes Remaining.

 

Danke Riley.