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AYAW #2 - Return to Basics

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Riley, May 4, 2014.

  1. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
    Messages:
    49
    I'm against Snowvon because I gut town read him pretty hard.

    I would be comfortable with a Maiden or Mathblade lynch today. Everything else is off the table, except in the case of a no lynch.

    Vote: Mathblade

    for now while I re-evaluate, and because this should be the counter wagon for today (and yet votes are spread? are scum trying to ensure Maiden stays the lynch today, if she's town?)

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:59 AM ----------

    And fyi, I wouldn't consider active questioning a reason to town read someone. The difference is whether you think they're trying to solve the game [as a player without info of a scum team] vs. trying to appear so. The difference is very subtle with a good player, but it pretty much has to exist at some level

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:00 AM ----------

    I want more on this. "Analyzing other players" Quotes or it didn't happen

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:01 AM ----------

    Well shit, am I the only one on right now?

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:05 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:02 AM ----------

    Also, because some players have this knowledge but not all:

    I was the Seer pre-reroll. As for now, by lynch or night death, you'll have to kill me to find out what I am ;)

    I did not know Maiden + Lyrium were pre-reroll scum, and I don't think it's fair only some players know that.

    And screw you Ika and Rubicon, because I'm the one being night killed tonight (WIFOM).
     
  2. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Nope, I'm online.

    I'm seriously puzzled at how anyone wants to lynch MathBlade after #453.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:05 AM ----------

    I figure you'll probably shoot me for being the only one here who seriously scum-reads you
     
  3. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
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    Free town points for answering this question:

    Should you be checked by the Seer? Why/why not?

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:10 AM ----------

    Oh hello Rubicon!

    Do you have any unaligned pairs from reading through the thread? I need some if you could help out there.
     
  4. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    I've got 19 unaligned pairs but I'm trying to decide the best way to write them up. If my strong town reads + unaligned pairs are correct then the game is solvable within our 4 mislynches, but I'm pessimistic on that actually working.
     
  5. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
    Messages:
    49
    Are those 19 unaligned pairs with posts confirming why? I'm regretting not marking them down as this game progressed (something I think I need to do from now on, kept putting it off due to being on my phone)

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:14 AM ----------

    I'm currently trying to PoE assuming the following are town:

    Town {Ika, Lyrium, Dermon, Snowvon, Sloth, Atum}

    Do you disagree with any of these? What's your opinion on the scum team if these players all suddenly got modkilled right now and were revealed town (aka confirmed town)
     
  6. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Yeah, I did interactions analysis on almost everyone earlier noting down post numbers. Assuming we get 8 hours twilight, I'll post them in the morning.
     
  7. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
    Messages:
    49
    TerRaine (1) – LochNess
    Rubicon (1) - Maiden
    Sloth (1) – TerRaine

    I don't like this vote spreading. What's your opinion? Post #543 freeze-frame on votes

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:17 AM ----------

    Why after a lynch but before night start?
     
  8. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Lyrium/Snow/Sloth are town. Atum is probably town. I lean toward this being ika's town game, but I've read him wrong D1 before - he's easier to read in the long term (does he keep up this level of scumhunting all game? etc.). Not willing to put him in any townbloc at the moment.

    I don't have a town-read on Dermon.

    If all of those players are town, I'd look at you/LochNess/Maiden/Burkion. Within that group, Maiden mostly only works with LochNess and Burkion.

    I'm kind of liking TerRaine's wall and I don't think MathBlade faked her towntell.

    I'm going to sleep soon and won't have time to write anything serious before deadline. I'm focusing on writing a valiant defense of Snowvon before passing out.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:25 AM ----------

    I see you've moved Dermon to your town group without saying why but I'm too tired to do anything about it.
     
  9. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
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    49
    Agreed on Ika, he usually ramps up but his game in general has evolved (he's much more motivated post-ing wise these days). Long term is the best indicator for him and he gives good analysis as town

    @Rubicon

    You didn't really answer my question. Assume all those players were modkilled and confirmed town. What do you think of the game state then? What do you think of the remaining players?

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:28 AM ----------

    I have indeed for my current analysis (Dermon town)

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:28 AM ----------

    Please answer the question I asked you as well as you can before sleeping/leaving. It makes a difference (if it makes you feel better, I'm pretty exhausted and rereading the entire day right now)

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:29 AM ----------

    Why do you say this to Ika, but you say you haven't read my posts well/really hard-line question my read on you?
     
  10. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    That was your cue to explain your Dermon read, but I guess not explaining it is interesting too.

    I think I did answer. If Ika, Lyrium, Dermon, Snowvon, Sloth, Atum are town that leaves you, MathBlade, TerRaine, Burkion, LochNess and Maiden. I would be surprised if MathBlade was scum and TerRaine's last post makes me think she's probably town. Therefore I would be left looking at the four remaining players, who I would currently rank you > Maiden > LochNess on the sliding scale of scummy (with Burkion null). I don't think you were bussing Maiden.

    That said, this is just a hypothetical based on assuming a bunch of apparently arbitrary town flips, so...

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:36 AM ----------

    What do you think of Sloth's reason for town-reading Maiden?
     
  11. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
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    That's because I'm still doing my own reread and I don't want to interrupt my thought processes (your answers are relevant to them hence why I want to continue my thoughts first)

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:39 AM ----------

    That's the point of the hypothetical. It helps me judge between the pool of players left with your insight, plus if you turn out scum it's awkward to give a weird situation to scum and force them to delineate

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:40 AM ----------

    Sloth's read on Maiden is causing me to doubt mine, hence my vote being moved for now (the fact that she was scum before is relevant, though I think she should be more forward that she was scum before)
     
  12. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    If you've already seen something from Dermon that was enough to move your read from squarely null to calling him town and removing him from your PoE, you should be able to just say it.

    And if you're able to interrupt your thought process long enough to answer my question about Maiden, you should be able to answer my question about Dermon.
     
  13. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
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    49
    Focused reread results:

    (TerRaine) Don't like 343
    (LochNess) Overall obsession with Sloth?
    (LochNess) Don't like end of 445


    TerRaine:
    Post #232 - slight distancing from lochness
    Post #285 - slight distancing from Maiden
    Post #432 - dialogue with Maiden?

    LochNess:
    Post #353 - vote distancing from TerRaine
    Post #428 - soft association with Maiden?
    Post #445 - slight distancing TerRaine

    Maiden:
    Post #408 - vote distancing from Rubicon?
    Post #508 - distancing from MathBlade or potential counter wagon?

    Throwing around the idea of a LochNess + TerRaine scumteam.

    Notes: Should Maiden flip town, look at Atum a LOT lot closer

    Vote: Maiden

    Considering the time left in the day and history with trouble lynching at day end, not worth moving away from here.

    Short of Post #408, none of these players really mentioned Rubicon in a way that pinged me, which is also alarming.

    Maiden, final reads/players to focus on during twilight would be hella nice.

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:47 AM ----------

    I'm assuming he's town along with the rest of that block and doing a focused analysis of the remaining players. Trying to see if I can ping a scum team among the remaining players with that assumption.

    Reasons for the assumption: he's posting infrequently + his posts are actually very insightful. If he had decent pressure today, I would townread him for it. He was not pressured today, and thus I can't draw a genuine reaction from him for today. But I like his posts so far - at the least, if he is scum I think he's contributing in a way that will result in his own downfall. He's drawn a high bar for himself insight-wise, which I don't think is smart for scum (and he appears to be a smart player so far)

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:50 AM ----------

    LochNess + TerRaine. Early distancing, calling each other slight scum reads but nothing really active going on there in terms of scumhunting each other/voting each other etc. What do you think, possible? Have I missed anything important in terms of those two with each other?

    Burkion is effectively null today so this theoretically assumes he's town since it totally ignores his presence in the game

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:53 AM ----------

    Feeling more confident on 2 scum in:

    {TerRaine, Maiden, LochNess, Burkion}

    Upon some more thought

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:57 AM ----------

    (on Dermon, genuine reaction as in, if he had acted the way he did today WITH vote pressure I would give him a town read bump, but he didn't have much pressure today and it's viable that he could be scum that coasted reasonably today. But for today and for this late-night analysis I'm happy with him)

    ---------- Post automerged at 04:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:58 AM ----------

    Still here Rubicon?
     
  14. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    barely
    /10chars
     
  15. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

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    Jan 5, 2014
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    49
    Anything in particular you want me to answer? In case I peace/pass out myself
     
  16. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    I thought TerRaine's early jump on LochNess looked more like opportunistic scum jumping on a reason to attack a townie than like distancing, if either of them are scum. I'm kind of skeptical that a LochNess + TerRaine team would be pushing each other in this way, but maybe. I lean town on TerRaine.
     
  17. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
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    Site died on me ugh

    ---------- Post automerged at 04:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:28 AM ----------

    I doubt it from one angle, but werewolves are screwed in this game if they're connected (which begs non-committal stances between them the most/avoiding no interaction whatsoever?). Idk I'm getting too tired to think about this so I'm calling it a night.

    ---------- Post automerged at 04:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:30 AM ----------

    Ps: hope to see the valiant snowmen defense youve been working on
     
  18. TerRaine

    TerRaine Squib

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    Anyone got a vote count?
     
  19. Riley

    Riley Alchemist DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2007
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    2,345
    Location:
    On The Eastern Seaboard, USA
    Updated vote count:

    Maiden (5) – ika, Snowvon, Rubicon, MathBlade, Citrus
    Snowvon (1) – Sloth, Maiden
    TerRaine (1) – LochNess
    Ika (1) – Dermon, TerRaine


    Not voting (3) - Burkion, Atum, Lyrium

    13 alive, 7 to lynch.

    4 hours and 30 Minutes Remaining.
     
  20. TerRaine

    TerRaine Squib

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2014
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    7
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    Female
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