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TinyHunt #5

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Eidolonic, Aug 30, 2015.

  1. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Cobalt, with regards to my vote switch, let's not forget that you outright misrepresented the state of play.

    You identify Sesc (and fonti) as a potential wagon when he in fact only had one vote (yours). Soon after you said this, it appeared that votes were switching to Sesc in quick succession.

    So what was it? Was Sesc a realistic wagon, as you said then, or was the Naeblis lynch "the only thing that was going to happen", as you hold now?

    Either you played fast and loose with the truth then, or you're doing it now.

    If I made an error in thinking the Sesc bandwagon was the most likely, the error was believing you.
     
  2. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    WAIT. That's precisely what they're doing.

    If they stall the Sesc lynch, they potentially have enough info to soup Riley and Typhon toNight. Heaven forbid they have any other roles pinned down. Let me give you a worlds post.
     
  3. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    Um. The timing of that post is pretty, uh, something. I think Taure's plan means if Riley is fake we don't even learn about it until D3 when we're in a complete black hole with 3 alive very few town left, relatively speaking. That seems... not so good. Plus if Riley's fake, he knows he's going to get checked OR they know Jan was the Priest, and they can probably do all kinds of.. you know what, this is one of those "don't even talk about it" situations, I think.

    I mean Taure if Riley's fake and we do your plan, I think we just lose the game.
     
  4. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Obviously role reveals are to be avoided if possible, but surely the information in this situation would merit the cost? I mean, your entire game plan is based on the assumption that Riley is town. If he's actually a witch and we follow your plan, it's game over. That's the kind of information that would surely be worth revealing, especially as it means we get a dead-cert witch lynch out of it.
     
  5. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    Woah woah woha hold up. I kinda ran into this in Narutomafia, but I really think we should not talk about this. Like, let's not build worlds that reveal things that we're assuming? Um. Get my hint here.
     
  6. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    Mmmmmph.

    K. You're right.

    But let's agree that Taure's plan is an absolutely not and also pretty witchy?
     
  7. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    If Riley is fake and we don't do my plan, we lose the game.

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:42 AM ----------

    I don't follow this at all. Firstly, what does Sesc being alive or dead have to do with their ability to soup? Secondly, how does it give any info on Typhon?

    And I think Riley soup, if he's town, is more or less guaranteed at this point.
     
  8. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    More chances to soup if Sesc stays alive. Are you serious?

    Zipping my lips about Typhon.

    You're right though. If Gravedigger did not go off last night and Riley is telling the truth, he is basically souped. Which is why I'm willing to write him off as town for now and work in that world, in which Sesc and you are witches, Taure.

    ---------- Post automerged at 04:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:48 AM ----------

    Yeah, pretty sure Kalas / Sesc / Taure is the most likely team at this point.
    Newcomb - can we agree to a yes on a Sesc lynch toDay?
     
  9. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    Agreed, barring any shenanigans.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:49 AM ----------

    And with that I'm going to bed.
     
  10. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    That's not what you said.

    You didn't say that Sesc being alive meant that the witches have more chances to Soup, and thus get people by trial and error over the course of several nights. You said that Sesc being alive immediately gives the witches the information they need to do a successful soup tonight.
     
  11. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    The information is already there. Sesc being lynched or not toDay has no effect on whether or not the witches have said information.

    Stalling a Sesc lynch gives the witches more chances to put that information to proper use, yes.

    For example, if Kalas was a witch and Sesc is a witch, I doubt the final will attempt a soup in the next Night. With Sesc still alive, I can see it happening tonight for sure. That's what I meant.

    ---------- Post automerged at 05:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:54 AM ----------

    Going to bed. Night.
     
  12. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    As an aside:

    Awaiting role-play.
     
  13. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    Definitely Not Taure

    Pls pay attention.

    God damn, you and Sesc have that in common.
     
  14. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    I believe Riley is 99% real and will bet the game on it.
     
  15. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Seems like the Sesc lynch is very popular. Even if we do lynch Sesc, I still think the priest should investigate Riley.
     
  16. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Investigating Riley is a waste. There is no way scum!Riley fakeclaims like that. He is town.
     
  17. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

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    This may be one of those worst case games where we don't want people claiming even if they are being lynched (depending on circumstances/roles)

    On phone so I'll read the longer posts And stuff directed at me later

    ---------- Post automerged at 10:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 AM ----------

    Potentially in scum Newcombe worlds but I'm willing to lose to a newcomer/Riley where we don't lynch the third guy today
     
  18. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    ^
    Too many roles are already out. I think if we lose this game, it's to soup.
     
  19. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    I have an honest question for those who played with Cobalt before. Is he always so completely convinced of his own correctness and that he's basically the only one around who has the right idea of everything?

    At this stage, everyone who agrees with him is town, and everyone who does not is not, because he uses his own perception of the game as the ultimate measure, utterly convinced that it must be as he sees it, so everyone who disagrees with him disagrees with reality and thus is naturally a witch. Like, take any random quote -- "all with the aim of discrediting me, my current reads, and the posts I've made so far this phase." -- it's like there's a stunned disbelief, almost outrage, that someone might disagree with him.

    It's an awful way to play, and I have no idea whether this means something or not. And it's highly unfortunate for him, when already, his original witch reads are in fact 3/4 town.


    So, right. Seeing that it will be impossible to convince Cobalt, this is for everyone else, I guess, although nothing in here is new -- I wrote it all before.

    I also am running into time problems which makes the situation worse, as dropping out now would be worst moment possible, but I'm not sure I have the time to spare this situation requires. There's a lot of things I've been meaning to do that I haven't been able to.

    I'll address the two "big" points and fix some factually wrong statements (again); if anyone has any specific things they'd like explained, for example the "contradictions" that aren't any, ask. I'll see what I can do.

    Or it was 3), me putting the vote out there in that manner to see what happens. Irene caught that pretty much right away -- she knows me, we've played before, and I've done it before. I also all but spelled it out in posts prior to this, e.g. when Jan asked.

    The Citrus thing. After reading Cobalt's post, I'm suddenly unsure if he still hasn't understood the problem. Because if he asks this, which makes no sense:

    I dunno what to make of that.

    Reality: Citrus had voted, then I had posted.
    Citrus' post: My post was the reason for his vote.

    That was so blatant a lie that he jumped to the top of my suspect list, and I was sure everyone would notice this, because if there's one thing people do, it's keeping track of votes. So I was pretty surprised when Cobalt, and Irene (of all people!) just swallowed that. After Citrus cleared that up as a set-up, it pushed him way into town territory, and in turn, Cobalt and Irene into suspect territory for making a mistake you usually never make.

    Irene gave her reasoning, which I found not convincing (and which I talked about when Citrus and she asked me, it amounted to "I have no idea why I thought that", or something to the effect), Cobalt didn't even do that, and on top of it, used it as a reason to consider Citrus town-ish, and lump vote him:

    ... and so I asked why (he had thought that).

    Jan, btw, later asked exactly this (after I had), and Cobalt provided him with a perfectly fine post that would have been entirely sufficient as an answer to my question.

    Instead, when I asked, an exchange that was like pulling teeth followed, because apparently, he preferred not to answer my questions because he thought I was a witch (which is another awful way to play, btw). When he eventually did answer, I thanked him, but apparently that's not a good thing to do either, because it "looks a lot like, "oh, thanks for explaining, let's get this issue buried so it doesn't bite me in the ass later on"."

    So what I see here is no "tunneling", but a textbook questioning of a player about an issue I wanted explained; where I ask something, and insist on my question until I get an answer, after which I drop it and do something else.

    Interlude:

    It's called sarcasm.

    Then:

    Citrus read Waco as town-ish at that point. And obviously, my meaning also included "reading him null" -- he's been lurking, he's still lurking in fact, and at that time, he hadn't done anything that wasn't prompted, except showing some fascination with Taure. I wondered why people weren't poking harder at him.

    "Riley actually voted Sesc when everyone was back on Nae'blis, and his switch meant a no lynch." Fixed that. He left Nae'blis completely at random and for no reason, and if I hadn't switched then, there wouldn't have been a majority -- which in hindsight wouldn't have made a difference, of course, but at that time it was the no lynch.

    Because the post-by-post was by Snowvon.

    The TL;DR I get out of Cobalt's post is "Sesc is a witch, now let's see if I can't get the evidence to show that". No idea whether that's done intentionally or unconsciously, see my point at the beginning.


    ----


    Newcomb: Re: Kalas. That's about the only reason to lynch me, yeah. I'll throw in a caveat, however: A signal's only relevant relative to the noise. You have to consider the context.

    Kalas' stuff about me didn't come out of the blue, he wrote it because Jan asked him to. And so naturally, he had to decide one way or the other how to feel about me, if he was a witch. It does curb the relevance somewhat -- it was only one of two things he could have done.

    And further, if you look at the end of the lynch, you see that effectively, Citrus is at least as strongly defending me there as Kalas, if not more. So if he's town, and Kalas a witch, and you can thus get the same outcome from both POVs, it's telling you not all that much. It'd be different if defending me was a completely unreasonable thing to do, but it's not.

    As for my own read of Kalas, I didn't have the time to re-read his posts now, but when I posted my opinion, I explained why I considered him town-ish, and I stand by the explanation I gave at that time. Naturally I can be wrong. That's the nature of the game.

    And I'm still not 100% convinced he is a witch, how could I?


    fontisian: Leaving aside Cobalt and you, there remains Typhon with a flip-flop-flip on me and the same voting analysis leading to two different outcomes, which is still unexplained, and Riley's and Waco's lurking.

    Obviously, I will not consider Taure's disagreement with Cobalt suspicious just because he disagrees. I've only skimmed the posts so far and didn't yet sit down and work through the scenarios. I've been meaning to go over him again (and Newcomb as well) because I find it hard to sort both, but so far no time.

    And incidentally, I have no idea whether any iteration of Kalas/Typhon/Waco/Riley makes sense either. Like I said, I've been meaning to do a lot of things :|
     
  20. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Why not? If Jan was was the right role, and the witches knew it via Necromancer, what reason would the witches have not to claim like that? It's a game winning play -- unless Riley is exposed.

    Remember, if Riley is town then the situation isn't as dire as it first seemed, because it's 7 vs 2 not 6 v 3.

    So let's say (assuming worst case) we mislynch at the end of today, then lose another town player to the night kill. That puts us down to 5 v 2 at the start of the third day. We then lynch Sesc, putting it at 5 v 1 going into night 3, and therefore 4 v 1 going into day 4.

    I quite like those odds. Of course, there are two dangers here: the priest dies and we end up thinking Riley is town when in fact he's a witch, and the danger of soup. But I don't think, at this stage, soup is too much of a danger: they could kill one, maybe two players with it. They'd have to get lucky with guesses to get more, and that runs the risk of exposing their identity. As for the risk of the priest dying, the end result is exactly the same as if we don't investigate at all: the town believes Riley to be genuine (since this is what everyone seems to believe anyway).

    All this means (if Riley is town as you guys are convinced he is) we probably have enough leeway to investigate him and lynch Sesc if it turns out Riley is town and Kalas was a witch.

    The "Riley is a witch" scenario is a bit more bleak. In this scenario there's probably still 3 witches alive, which means we're at 6 v 3. Assuming worst case, we mislynch today, down to 5 v 3. Another town player dies during night 2, putting us at 4 v 3. Day three priest returns investigation to say Riley is a witch, we lynch Riley. End of day 3 we're at 4 v 2. After the night kill, 3 v 2.

    These are not great odds at all. Town would have to lynch a witch on day 4 and day 5 in order to avoid a mafia win.

    But, in the scenario where Riley is a witch, does anyone have a plan that results in a better result?

    I mean, your plan is something like this:

    Lynch Sesc. Mislynch, because Riley is a witch in this scenario and so Kalas was town, and the main evidence against Sesc is Kalas defending him. So that puts us down to 5 v 3 at the end of day 2. Lose a town player to the night kill, 4 v 3 at start of day 3. Day three you'd probably lynch me, putting us down to 3 v 3. Night kill puts town down to 2 v 3 at start of day 4, game over. Even if Sesc were by chance a witch, if Riley is also a witch, your plan has us going into day 4 with 2 v 2, in contrast to my plan which has us at 3 v 2.

    TL,DR

    If Riley is town:

    My plan gives us good odds of going into day four with 4 town vs 1 witch. If soup is used successfully, 3 town v 1 witch.

    If Riley is a witch:

    My plan has us going into day four with 3 town vs 2 witches.

    Your plan has us going into day four with, at best, 2 v 2, but probably game over.
     
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