Cobalt, with regards to my vote switch, let's not forget that you outright misrepresented the state of play.

You identify Sesc (and fonti) as a potential wagon when he in fact only had one vote (yours). Soon after you said this, it appeared that votes were switching to Sesc in quick succession.

So what was it? Was Sesc a realistic wagon, as you said then, or was the Naeblis lynch "the only thing that was going to happen", as you hold now?

Either you played fast and loose with the truth then, or you're doing it now.

If I made an error in thinking the Sesc bandwagon was the most likely, the error was believing you.

 

WAIT. That's precisely what they're doing.

If they stall the Sesc lynch, they potentially have enough info to soup Riley and Typhon toNight. Heaven forbid they have any other roles pinned down. Let me give you a worlds post.

 

Um. The timing of that post is pretty, uh, something. I think Taure's plan means if Riley is fake we don't even learn about it until D3 when we're in a complete black hole with 3 alive very few town left, relatively speaking. That seems... not so good. Plus if Riley's fake, he knows he's going to get checked OR they know Jan was the Priest, and they can probably do all kinds of.. you know what, this is one of those "don't even talk about it" situations, I think.

I mean Taure if Riley's fake and we do your plan, I think we just lose the game.

 

Obviously role reveals are to be avoided if possible, but surely the information in this situation would merit the cost? I mean, your entire game plan is based on the assumption that Riley is town. If he's actually a witch and we follow your plan, it's game over. That's the kind of information that would surely be worth revealing, especially as it means we get a dead-cert witch lynch out of it.

 

Woah woah woha hold up. I kinda ran into this in Narutomafia, but I really think we should not talk about this. Like, let's not build worlds that reveal things that we're assuming? Um. Get my hint here.

 

Mmmmmph.

K. You're right.

But let's agree that Taure's plan is an absolutely not and also pretty witchy?

 

If Riley is fake and we don't do my plan, we lose the game.

---------- Post automerged at 09:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:42 AM ----------

I don't follow this at all. Firstly, what does Sesc being alive or dead have to do with their ability to soup? Secondly, how does it give any info on Typhon?

And I think Riley soup, if he's town, is more or less guaranteed at this point.

 

More chances to soup if Sesc stays alive. Are you serious?

Zipping my lips about Typhon.

You're right though. If Gravedigger did not go off last night and Riley is telling the truth, he is basically souped. Which is why I'm willing to write him off as town for now and work in that world, in which Sesc and you are witches, Taure.

---------- Post automerged at 04:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:48 AM ----------

Yeah, pretty sure Kalas / Sesc / Taure is the most likely team at this point.
Newcomb - can we agree to a yes on a Sesc lynch toDay?

 

Agreed, barring any shenanigans.

---------- Post automerged at 01:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:49 AM ----------

And with that I'm going to bed.

 

That's not what you said.

You didn't say that Sesc being alive meant that the witches have more chances to Soup, and thus get people by trial and error over the course of several nights. You said that Sesc being alive immediately gives the witches the information they need to do a successful soup tonight.

 

The information is already there. Sesc being lynched or not toDay has no effect on whether or not the witches have said information.

Stalling a Sesc lynch gives the witches more chances to put that information to proper use, yes.

For example, if Kalas was a witch and Sesc is a witch, I doubt the final will attempt a soup in the next Night. With Sesc still alive, I can see it happening tonight for sure. That's what I meant.

---------- Post automerged at 05:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:54 AM ----------

Going to bed. Night.

 

As an aside:

Awaiting role-play.

 

Definitely Not Taure

Pls pay attention.

God damn, you and Sesc have that in common.

 

I believe Riley is 99% real and will bet the game on it.

 

Seems like the Sesc lynch is very popular. Even if we do lynch Sesc, I still think the priest should investigate Riley.

 

Investigating Riley is a waste. There is no way scum!Riley fakeclaims like that. He is town.

 

This may be one of those worst case games where we don't want people claiming even if they are being lynched (depending on circumstances/roles)

On phone so I'll read the longer posts And stuff directed at me later

---------- Post automerged at 10:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 AM ----------

Potentially in scum Newcombe worlds but I'm willing to lose to a newcomer/Riley where we don't lynch the third guy today

 

^
Too many roles are already out. I think if we lose this game, it's to soup.

 

Why not? If Jan was was the right role, and the witches knew it via Necromancer, what reason would the witches have not to claim like that? It's a game winning play -- unless Riley is exposed.

Remember, if Riley is town then the situation isn't as dire as it first seemed, because it's 7 vs 2 not 6 v 3.

So let's say (assuming worst case) we mislynch at the end of today, then lose another town player to the night kill. That puts us down to 5 v 2 at the start of the third day. We then lynch Sesc, putting it at 5 v 1 going into night 3, and therefore 4 v 1 going into day 4.

I quite like those odds. Of course, there are two dangers here: the priest dies and we end up thinking Riley is town when in fact he's a witch, and the danger of soup. But I don't think, at this stage, soup is too much of a danger: they could kill one, maybe two players with it. They'd have to get lucky with guesses to get more, and that runs the risk of exposing their identity. As for the risk of the priest dying, the end result is exactly the same as if we don't investigate at all: the town believes Riley to be genuine (since this is what everyone seems to believe anyway).

All this means (if Riley is town as you guys are convinced he is) we probably have enough leeway to investigate him and lynch Sesc if it turns out Riley is town and Kalas was a witch.

The "Riley is a witch" scenario is a bit more bleak. In this scenario there's probably still 3 witches alive, which means we're at 6 v 3. Assuming worst case, we mislynch today, down to 5 v 3. Another town player dies during night 2, putting us at 4 v 3. Day three priest returns investigation to say Riley is a witch, we lynch Riley. End of day 3 we're at 4 v 2. After the night kill, 3 v 2.

These are not great odds at all. Town would have to lynch a witch on day 4 and day 5 in order to avoid a mafia win.

But, in the scenario where Riley is a witch, does anyone have a plan that results in a better result?

I mean, your plan is something like this:

Lynch Sesc. Mislynch, because Riley is a witch in this scenario and so Kalas was town, and the main evidence against Sesc is Kalas defending him. So that puts us down to 5 v 3 at the end of day 2. Lose a town player to the night kill, 4 v 3 at start of day 3. Day three you'd probably lynch me, putting us down to 3 v 3. Night kill puts town down to 2 v 3 at start of day 4, game over. Even if Sesc were by chance a witch, if Riley is also a witch, your plan has us going into day 4 with 2 v 2, in contrast to my plan which has us at 3 v 2.

TL,DR

If Riley is town:

My plan gives us good odds of going into day four with 4 town vs 1 witch. If soup is used successfully, 3 town v 1 witch.

If Riley is a witch:

My plan has us going into day four with 3 town vs 2 witches.

Your plan has us going into day four with, at best, 2 v 2, but probably game over.