IK triggers. Spiritualist + Fanatic need to claim.

 

I get why spiritualist should claim, but why fanatic?

if von is fanatic he keeps his mouth shut for example.

Every bit of information that we can keep from scum we should keep from them. as little claims as possible.

There is no actual need to claim for fanatic.
Spiritualist can claim to check newcombs story, if they feel like it.

 

I'm looking back and still pretty convinced of koalas/slippery unalignment.

Which is awkward, as I'm running out of people that seem like scum.

 

Could you give me your impression of typhon this game?

I feel you mostly ignored him while he read you town for small reasons.

Curious if you have a somewhat more in depth opinion.

 

I do not. I need to form one.

His townread on me definitely felt a little too easy, but he doesn't know me and lots of strangers just try to read me on tone.
You guys know that doesn't work, but he wouldn't know that presumably.

 

To potentially confirm owners story but also so that the scum team isn't accidentally double lifed. That could easily lose us the game at this point.

 

Jan here's where I'm at:

I believe owner's claim. The Von check is probably good, although Vira as the only Demon, ehhh - the check doesn't actually tip the scales one way or the other for me, Von's town because of other things. I don't think there's been enough discussion about it but on balance I really don't see Mal using the IK there even if it does proc the Hunter shot. Given his meta of how he wants PRs to act, he'd be essentially rolling the dice that his shot wouldn't be aimed at his partner. Down a partner already D1, it doesn't really fit my conception of Mal as a player to take a risk like that. You already know why I think you're town, and I hope you don't want to argue about that.

So we're looking for two out of:

Koalas
SlipperyAxII
tom
Typhon

We're at 9 alive; 2 mafia 7 town.

Mislynch, Mal shoots town, NK goes through (worst case), we're at 6 alive. 2 mafia 4 town. I'll get the flip on the mislynch, and at that point it's just... PoE.

So if you feel like I'm being lazy here, I won't necessarily disagree with you, but you can kind of see where I'm coming from, right? If we kill all 4 and don't win, then we're probably never going to win, because either Von lucked into the first actual Haunt swap I've ever seen in a WH game and also picked this moment to take his scumgame to the next level, or you faked a pretty incredible amount of trying to figure me out, or owner is the the ballsiest scum ever and picked up a strong PR read on Waco's like 3 actual posts, or Mal IK'd and incepted the judgement into my head that he wouldn't do that. Which, like, yeah.

So of those four, though I don't think anyone really agrees with me, I think there's a decent shot it's actually just Vira/Slip/Kalas.

Spoiler

Highlighted parts mine. I feel like those are the most significant thrusts of their D1 argument. Now let's take a look at how they approach each other D2 when I roll into the thread confirming Vira was mafia:

"For now" is textbook distancing there.

This is while he's still voting Koalas.

Here's what I see here:

I see Slip and Koalas effectively distancing D1, and then when Vira gets blown up unexpectedly, they walk it back, because they have to. There's a lot of poking and prodding, but they don't vote on each other, they don't try to get the other one killed, instead they reference their D1 fight and try to frame their reads on each other in the context of that. In that sense, they don't look like naturally evolving reads so much as reads borne out of circumstance.

I don't think it's a slam dunk case but this is not a pair anyone should be writing off as unaligned.

Typhon I've talked about before; he doesn't have a big thread presence but what's there feels town. Quoting myself:

Spoiler

That's not something I feel like scum comes up with if they know owner is town. It's second-level kind of ??? lines of thought where as scum you push someone by going "this is scummy." It doesn't occur to you to take it to the next level and go "X is towny, but too much of X is scummy." You're implicitly buying the premise that the foundation of what you're attacking someone for comes from a town perspective. Scum!Typhon is self-conscious. Self-aware. Careful. This line of attack is too bold. It's too unconventional.

The conviction / carefree / fire vibe he's got going here is a town thing from Typhon. If he's scum here he's closing off an awful lot of mislynches, and that's absolutely at odds with his scumplay in Narutomafia when he was super hem-and-haw-y.

tom is just... PoE. I'm not willing to take the chance that he soft-pocketed me early by going "yeah... that felt like town!Newcomb" and then blithely skipping along never genuinely evaluating me and forcing through mislynches. It's a safety read, absolutely, but it's just one of those things that my ego is maybe driving a little and I'm kind of okay with that. If it means putting tom in the PoE because I really, really don't want to lose to scum!tom here, fine. I like my towncircle and we (probably) have enough kills to just chaingun through the PoE, so let's just do it already.

 

Unless von is fanatic and didnt get a live or there is a fanatic with an extra live that did not get checked by owner.
No real reason to claim.

Scum team double lifed would not be great, they might already be with newcomb.

Your thoughts on the post that i pointed out?!

I think it is maybe the laziest Newcomb post in a long while.


The fact that he says tom is ALWAYS scum, but doesn't vote for him does not make it any better, unless he gives a good reason for it.

I really really do not get that line of thinking.
There is always at most one between any of those pairings, but him saying there is always one between them sounds more like poor mans propaganda.

He is basically dismissing myself and typhon as town for no given reason at all. At esp with typhon I do not really get it.

---------- Post automerged at 20:18 ---------- Previous post was at 20:15 ----------

It is your wording what I dislike the most Newcomb.

I know that the game is fairly easy for you.

You know we can't lose today because 1 scum is dead.
From your perspective that makes you read the game fairly calm and collected.

 

---------- Post automerged at 11:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:20 AM ----------

actually maybe jagsfan is more appropriate

 

So yesterday you come with those weird in my little perfect world there is always one between x/y and always one between c/d.

And today you are saying that slippery/koalas is a likely world for you.

I personally don't think the depth the argument went on about wording and all that stuff is likely w/w.

And you are reusing gifs now?
You are actually the laziest incarnation of newcomb i have seen.

 

i thought about linking a lick my shiny metal ass gif ..

but google filled in salty balls after i wrote "lick my" ..


This world is going down the drain and Newcomb is spearheading the apocalypse.

 

Jan, forget Kalas/Slip potentially being a team. Let's say there's at most one between them. Kalas. Slip. tom. Typhon. There are /always/ at least two town in there anyway. Where am I wrong in that PoE? Who else should be in it?

 

Going to brunch. Prolly gonna move to koalas tbh.

 

The problem is that in yesterdays post you ignored Typhon and linked others together in an awkward way.
It had an opportunistic look to it.

In a scum!Newcomb world there are three alive right now and lynching those people in a wrong order can lose us the game.

In a town!Newcomb the plan would be to shoot the most likely scum with mals shot tonight and use the lynch for +2 on that list.
(that way scum don't get another kp tonight if we are wrong with the lynch)

The fact that you are not thinking about any of this is driving me insane.

 

Based on activity alone I'd lynch Typhon.

A little birdie mentioned he suffers from Vaimes Syndrome as scum.

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Actually I just remembered he's dealing with an IRL thing.

Don't think he was profoundly towny when he was here tho.

 

Well, yeah, not thinking about the first one, duh.

And like. Yeah, we were always doing the second one. We use Mal's shot to give us the best chance to avoid Last Stand, obviously. Why do you need me to go into detail on that? Kalas is 2nd scummiest in almost every world of pairs of those four in my PoE, and I want Mal to shoot his top scum out of tom and Slip.

???

You can't seriously be mad at me for not considering that "order matters" in worlds of three when I have mechanical information that we're not in worlds of three, yeah?

 

according to yourself he was more town than me and on a similar level as tom

---------- Post automerged at 21:28 ---------- Previous post was at 21:19 ----------

The only world we lose against today is?

Newcomb / Owner / mal (replace owner or mal with on of the people inside the poe).

In that world either mal made a risky play in not trying to kill a possible priest when only 1 person is dead that could have been priest.
Or owner fakeclaimed priest and exactly aco (or vira) was priest.

The Newcomb/owner world makes sense. The fact that owner didn't check me or slippery would fit in that world. (i would expect her to check within the people he knows somewhat).

But all those worlds are very low chance of being the world.
owner - why did you check waco instead of font (just replaced out), slippery or myself?

 

*is a little bit distracted at the moment preparing for Hydra Game 3 (that I'm helping to mod)*

Jan, I didn't check you because I felt my read on you was good enough to go without the check.

Slippery has been a sort of a gut read.

I checked Waco because I thought he was going to maybe be headed towards a lynch again on day 2. So I wanted to know if I needed to defend him or not.