It's schrodinger's scumbox, you're both simultaneously scum and not scum until observed otherwise.

 

fontisian

Things.

Let's start with, why do you have me as lighter townread?

You have been bugging people about my alignment/why they are townreading me all day, without ever giving a read on me yourself and now I am there in the middle of your townreads.
A place where you don't have to care about today and have every excuse to kill me tonight and still look somewhat good for it.

Whenever you come back you can give reasons for it.
I asked you earlier. You didn't do it so far, but you apparently read me town for something. Go ahead and tell the class.

A genuine progression would have been to have me as questionmark, this is eyebrowraising.

Spoiler

You saying that Waco is always null is not a thing. Pretty sure you read him most of the time one way or another.
Not having a read on him at this point is ok, but saying he is always null feels wrong.
I am too lazy to go through all your last towngames on dlp, but I think that is somewhat bullshit.


And one last thing - Talk dC for me.

I personally think the reason of him not realizing the game had started is very thin. Why?

Because I get my qt via discord in dlps games that are hosted by Newcomb and/or Eido.
dC and I are both in the fantasystrike discord (so are Newcomb and Eido).

There is a reasonable chance that he got his qt via discord but didn't go online there for a short while and what he is saying about refreshing the sign-up thread is true, but does not say anything about his alignment.

Don't get me wrong, I think, he is town for other reasons, but similar to Jari who has dC as hightownread for that reason alone, I don't like it.

That comment was not so much exclusive for you and more for everybody.

I think dCs thread entry was real, but it does not make him locktown for just that. Pretty certain within the people that are reading the game like that is scum, because that is an easy way to give a townread without doing too much work.

 

Vote:Stanari

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As much as I dislike Plotless, I don't like the meh feeling of his wagon. The slow climb in votes concerns me.

---------- Post automerged at 05:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:57 AM ----------

(Admittedly I'm still not caught up)

---------- Post automerged at 06:04 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:57 AM ----------

This is why I hate posting at night.

 

While the first part is alright, why do you think the 2nd part will win you a game?

You are trying to get plotless lynched right now, who is a more or less dead slot. Not actually dead, but frozen as either alignment.

And sure he is not a runaway wagon, but you even said yourself that there is a good chance Jari is scum as well.

In a world where we have w/w wagons right now, how do you win the game just because you lynched scum d1?

It is not easy to solve those kinds of wagons. Yes having a big towncircle is a good play, but the scumlynch does not change anything.
It just sounds good (esp with those wagons/people that you are pushing as lynch).



Like you dislike Kai for not voting plotless. If the wagons are w/w then this means very little for Kais alignment.
Even if the wagons are v/w and Jari is scum it means little, because Plotless has way more traction(=amount of people that read plotless scum is higher than for Jari) overall.

The only way it gives you anything on Kai is if plotless is scum and Jari is town. And even in that world I could see scum!Kai bussing plotless because that is what happenes when someones activity drops to zero.


Could you tell me where the differene between a town and a scumflip is for you in regards to solving the game?
And don't tell me it is spew, because Plotless has very little to analyse and very few people would get any cred for bussing/pushing him at this point.

---------- Post automerged at 13:07 ---------- Previous post was at 13:05 ----------

Yes with the wagons the way they are putting your vote in the middle of nowhere seems to be the right move regardless of their or your alignment.

Your focus right now in regards to voting should be between Jari or Plotless, unless you want to make an in depth case on someone else (in this case Stanari) right now.

I am fine with you giving reads outside of that, but we are not accepting useless more or less throw away votes.
(Inbefore I haven't checked votecounts and she is at 4 votes or something)

---------- Post automerged at 13:09 ---------- Previous post was at 13:07 ----------

Plus - how does the slow climb in votes on Plotless concern you?

Give me your thoughts on what is bad about a wagon that is not exploding all of a sudden?

I can understand the argument that certain people voting plotless concerns you, but the slow climb? Really?

 

Ditto'ing Jan's question re; the "slow climb", that's actually something I attribute more with a hit than a miss, think I'd be more sceptical of a wagon that instantly took off and garnered a bunch of votes.

Jan - It's not about "spew" at all, it's about gamestate, with a D1 mslynch D2 is going to be an over-focus on "Crap, what if there's lots of scum inside the town reads" and will lead towards much less focus on the players I think are actually quite likely to be mafia whereas a D1 mafia lynch pushes the game in the right direction. I also don't think there's "nothing gained" even if the flipped scum has minimal interactions themselves you can read into how other people commented on them and read them.

---------- Post automerged at 06:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:11 AM ----------

Pretty much while one could make the argument that if you're at a situation D1 where like 4-5 of 8 names are mafia and you lynch someone and they flip town the odds turn into 4-5 of 7 names to hit mafia the following day so you're actually more likely to hit but in practice I don't think it ends up that way, people divert from that lynch pool.

---------- Post automerged at 06:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:14 AM ----------

It's also kind of a 'motivation thing' I guess? I wouldn't say I get "Down" about mslynching but it's certainly not a good feeling and while it's not going to stop me from playing I've seen it have pretty bad effects on some towns (SVM can be an example although that wasn't entirely due to "just" mslynching).

Also can start using a few more tools to gamesolve with a flipped scum.

 

True enough, people get more paranoid if the d1 lynch is town.

The rest is .. I don't think you will get a lot out of a plotless lynch.

Fonti has been asking for plotless votes for a while now, and she would do that to a partner that stopped playing.
She would do that as town as well.

And yes other people have a smaller range and you have an easier time reading into their behavior around the push on a confirmed scum.
Still think that part is minimal in this case.

 

There's 15 hours. New wagons form in less time, even absent the typical CFDs of DLP.

I thought it was self-evident.

There's a status quo feeling to the Plotless wagon which indicates either a) he's town, or b) scum have given up on him. I don't think he's played so poorly for the latter to be the case, particularly in a big game like this.

An explosion of votes is less indicative because scum might not be around to counteract and/or might want to hop on the bandwagon. When it's a slow thing, there's more time and space for noise or consolidation outside, without it seeming suspicious.

More than that, Plotless specifically seems like a "eh" wagon. A lot of people having opinions, and then dropping them to wait and see, or because they don't think traction will occur rn, and so on. That lack of enthusiasm, to my mind, makes the ground more fertile for scum to try to waylay it.

That they haven't, and that it's climbed to 5/6 votes (I was about to jump on), the size where it having size starts to kill other wagons, is not a good indicator for his being scum.

 

Hey, consolidation time is great and all, but let's not let Stanari coast through d2 too, yeah?
lynch: Jarizok

 

I'm going to switch that to Vote:KaiDASH, actually. I think that will be more interesting.
Jan, if there's no traction I'll switch in ~7hrs, when I wake (rip). I'm sure you had a response to the above, as I highly doubt you didn't get that reasoning immediately, but it's too late for me to wait and these days I don't take the phone to bed.

---------- Post automerged at 06:24 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:23 AM ----------

Quickly:

Miner-Plotless just became that much more likely. That post is so bad, in context.

 

@Q - Starting a new wagon is problematic for two reasons; 1) It requires 10 to lynch out of 18 votes, no one is going to self-vote so 10/17 need to be obtained, there's a few of us that won't be on again before the deadline and thus unable to change our vote between now and then which means there's probably only ~14 votes in play with some of those being scum too. That means for a lynch to go through its either going to somehow be completely unanimous with all townies around or scum are going to want the lynch to go through and aid it which probably happens on a mslynch more than a buss and b) We need time for whoever is being run up to claim, assess the claim and make a decision.

I disagree with the "Scum wouldn't give up on a partner like him", there's a decent chance he's been instructed to minimise the interactions he provides upon his flip or they've got a claim-gambit saved up in an attempt to save him come end of day. I town read most of the wagon him too which is another pretty good sign, exceptions being Fontisian (Pretty null on her overall, I like Jans point about her but aren't really convinced it's a huge tell and her reads matching mine in most places combined with her being sick is enough to not particularly care) and Stanari (Who I've got a pretty weak scum read on).

 

Hmm. Is your wanting commitment, Jan, something that specifically relates to me? Or relates to me to a far greater degree than another?

Because that makes a lot more sense, though I'm surprised you'd think I'd approach it this way/switch to approaching it this way.

 

Welp using 1) and b), that's a sign it's bed time for me I think.

 

A few points before I sleep (yeah, I said I would post some other things but half dead so bluh)

1. jarizok recent posts strongly suggest he's w/w with plotless here imo.

2. I really dislike the kind of post regfan made in #813, but for him it's probably meaningless? I'm getting a different 'feel' from him this game than last game, but could be just the different game circumstance since this is a different kind of game to wh.

3. I think fonti is probable town here after her recent posts? I'm pretty confident about this. Jan's right that she would play the same when w/w with Plotless, but I don't really think that's what is going on here.

4. Jan too.

 

It certainly doesn't feel that way. I distinctly remember you'd disappear for a day or two IRL before coming back and firing reads into the thread. That's just kinda how it was, and kinda what I'm seeing here.

Want to know why I think your reads are reachy? Just look at your most recent "shade" at Reg. "This is not calm even-keeled Reg, therefore he must be scum". That's... quite a reach, don't you think?

All the fonti voters are bad because I disliked the way they jumped on that wagon out of RVS (Fable here can /maybe/ argue until he's blue in the face and say that it was RVS, the others really have no excuse). At that point in the game, they pretty much hadn't done anything else. Since then, I think that I like Cobalt's catchup posts from yesterday, they're very free-flowing and seem much more like town!Cobalt than the scum!Cobalt that I noticed in AYAW and experienced firsthand in MM7. Stanari still hasn't done much, and I'd like that to change, but since we're consolidating, you're the better lynch than Plotless here.

I did not, in fact, read through scum QT's from last game.

 

Let me try something.
Plotless - your last post was an empty promise of content ~ 19 hours ago.

If you don't deliver and bleed town you will die in 14(?) hours or something.

 

I'm kind of inclined to agree with Q on the Plotless thing. While there are situations where a slow climb indicates scum staying away, Plotless is also bus target numero uno at the moment so I am pretty sure he'd be being bussed.

(Unfortunately for Jarizok this isn't really evidence that he's town, because I'd expect town!Jarizok to go for Plotless too unless he has Plotless as 100% locktown. That's just how it usually is around consolidation time. The "throwing a bunch of possible lynch targets at me" thing isn't so much a considered scum tactic as a knee jerk response)

 

I think Plotless is the most likely scum and at a certain point we just have to lynch that and not give a shit about how uninformative it is.

Vote: Plotless

Jarizok is just disingenuous with word choices and framing and I have a harder time believing that his reads are organic than the opposite. But he has given me the opportunity to get into his head.
Disingeniousness is also not necessary scum, the ability to push a read is also a skill.

Quiddity:
I can't get into Quiddity's head, and Quiddity's pushes feel off, timing-wise and content-wise.. Apparently I'm supposed to think that's good? But I kind of want to trust my empathy skills. Ultimately, a huge part of what drives my suspicion is the number of townreads I have.
I hate his thing, and if I were in a final 3 with Hitler Stalin and Quiddity, I would lynch Quiddity twice.

I still think Adult, Acio and Vaimes are town, I have solidified my townreads on Zenzao and dC, I have an actual townread on pieyan, I have reached my ceiling on how good I feel about Regfan and probably nothing but interaction analysis is going to make me feel better.
fontisian hasn't moved.
Fable is also more likely town than not.
I feel slightly worse about Jan for minor reasons, but still rather town. I don't like that he stated strong townreads with no scumreads, than I poked him on his lack of paranoia, then he started showing paranoia.

Stanari, is there a reason to think Stanari is town?
I dislike both Stanari and the way the thread moved on her.

KaiDASH, I looked at him again, and maybe I mind-melted with him on the extra Cobaltiness of Cobalt. Is that good? bad? Idk, but it's a little bit scary.
Kai's clippedness is also very pronounced, and I still dislike him for "scum avoiding drawing fire" reasons.

Of the top of my head, I can't recall anything Waco Kid did since basically game-start. That's bad.

 

Needs more bold, blab

 

Vote: Plotless

 

Obviously I'll vote Plot over myself if that's my only iption, but there's plenty of time to get someone I'm actually scumreading wagoned up.