Nah, I'm more of a cabbage person.

 

You are expecting a mislynch?

Keldeo thought TerRaine was the watcher? And Scum 2 thought Keldeo was the watcher?
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I buy my tinfoil in bulk.

 

Maybe? I don’t know what they thought; it’s just who I’d probably be hunting if I were scum.

 

Yup.

 

Kind of guaranteed we mislynch, given that we have a 1 in 5 shot of getting it right.

Talking about the watcher reminds me: could the watcher even be relevant tomorrow? If they reveal, does the moderator step in and back that up? Or is it a trust thing? Because then a mafia could just make sure to claim watcher on the last day?

Right now I see the game going a few ways based on my current premise (that Tammy and Fluff are definitely town)

I get mislynched -- would love to see my first mafia game to the end but I feel like that's an unrealistic dream scenario. Then it's down to Mendel/Empoof LyLo. If this happens, we *need* to really have a grasp of what's happening for town to win. So I'm kinda... honestly p desperately hoping to get us more information in the off-chance this happens.

Lynch Mendel/Empoof-- they flip scum. Win!

Lynch Mendel/Empoof, the wagon flips town! Well fucksticks huh? I mean, I'll know the scum is the OTHER one, but I've been pretty much no help for most of the game and have probably not built up enough scumhunter cred to justify my grievous error resulting in town losing LyLo.

Of course I could be wrong and Tammy/Fluff could be playing an AMAZING scum game three miles deep, but I'm REALLY not sure if that's a productive line of questioning.

I'm not really sure where I'm going with this or if it could help in any meaningful way but I'd rather get all my thoughts down and out because it really seems like the more information we have as a town, the better equipped we are.

 

We should talk about the watcher as little as possible today imo.

It's trust based yes but a watcher guilty forces a 1v1 claim battle which is still useful. I have... thought a lot about different ways that a final 3 with a watcher can go. I was considering discussing a watcher claim for toDay to avoid the 1v1 but I think in this position it's net positive for us to keep quiet about it.

Nah that's not why. It's because I think we're going to lynch Mendel and I think he has a decent chance of being town. I'll see if I can swing a hit for toDay but... basically if we miss between you and fluff (I'm starting to non-ironically think fluff has scum equity here) I don't trust a town!Mendel to read me well enough.

But I think both you and Mendel have been actively solving well enough, and that fluff is doing his fluff thing of not really showing process. But I also think that fluff looks the best from how Jarizok interacted with him and how fluff pushed. Which are annoying opinions to have at the same time. If Mendel is town, I think I'd be able to deal with the final 3 of you me and fluff the best. And I want to play to have the highest chance of winning. Though if I die, game could be considered hard for you all depending on how strong each of your convictions are. So it's a little selfish, admittedly. But given that CerberAsta / Mendel / Empoof are all coming to the conclusion that Tammy and Fluff are the most likely to be town and we each want to devour the other two between us, then I believe I should be alive in a final 3.

I also don't want to put the stake in Mendel's back personally and let the day unfold naturally. I'm excited to see what Tammy has to say for toDay, and see where her bouncing ideas lead her. Maybe she finds a lead that I didn't consider.

I've... been playing this Day with my hand a bit close to my chest which is another thing that Mendel hates (heh) but I think is unfortunately necessary. While it may look like I'm set in lynching Mendel today, I'm definitely not. I may be tinfoiling on fluff a bit, but I may go back to spear heading my original PoE and laugh at even considering fluff as a partner option.

So yeah.

Hum dee dum.

 

Votal

Mendel (1): CerberAsta

Not voting (4): Empoof, Fluffiness, Mendel, Tammy

 

I'd love to see scum equity because yeah, if we just write off Fluff without a complete, proper investigation......... that could be bad. Vaimes' clearing him is still stuck for me, but I dunno.

 

Uh bro, didn't Vaimes go out saying that fluff was scummy?

 

This game has had to a backseat for me today, I'm sorry. Unfortunately, it's going to continue to be bad, as I am managing an Open Stage tomorrow, and will be on a trip on Friday where I might pop in a few hours before EoD, but be asleep by 2 am when the EoD actually is, because my brother doesn't stay awake nights
We'll see how much time I can scrape together, hopefully I can do some more analysis tomorrow.
Right now, I feel it's more likely Cerber than Empoof, but I don't have any new data beyond what I had yesterday.

Fluffiness and Tammy are town for me today, and that won't change.

 

I need to go back and check but I thought Vaimes pointed out that fluff voting Jarizok would make no sense and gain him nothing

 

This week is just really a bad week for this stage of the game. I’ve got some time tonight before bed but I’ve got work work to finish also, so my attention is divided. I’ll be here mostly though for the next couple hours.

Fluffy - when I asked you about jarizok day one, and noted that he hadn’t been doing much and had fewer posts than you, you said that’s a problem. Why would that be a problem for jarizok specifically?

Also, what are yoU going after with having Cerber look at the votes and specifically for people who thought sloth might have been town? Since keldeo was his partner, nobody here could have known he was scum. Am I misunderstanding what you’re going for?
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By all accounts Mendel should be jarizok’s partner. Every single little bit of evidence points to jarizok, but even though all the evidence points in that direction, there’s a part of me disbelieving it. I was looking back over my qt for some early impressions and my first note about Mendel is that he felt like he was consciously trying to interact with everyone. But even now his thoughts come across very earnest.

Hmmm. Idk
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Oh challenge!

Here’s me in a hydra called pyrotechnics lynching lhf scum day one. Got their partner day two because they kept trying to minimize my scum read as making a lurker lynch.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=30901
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And the thing is the things jarizok was actually saying was scummy. (I think. I’m sad to say that I think jarizok is just someone I find scummy in general based on last game, and I didn’t actually have a scum read that was correct. I think I just had a jarizok read that just happened to slip scum this time )
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Man if I were scum this game after not having played in over a year, and over two since playing scum -and barely being able to post that time- I’d be really proud of myself.
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I actually might end up falling asleep soon. I’m super fucking sorry.

Let me get to a computer and spew whatever random thoughts I have while drinking a spot o tea.
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Disclaimer - I'm not going back to fact check; I don't have time. These are things as I remember them. I might be wrong and if so please point them out.

So I've been asking fluffy questions because I have some concerns there. I wish I had time to read through a Jarizok scum game to see how he treats his partners because some of the concern I have about them being partnered is that he put his vote on fluffy for a pretty silly reason, kept it there because 'he's smug' or whatever and interacted with him in a generic "what are your reads" type way. Now the "what are your reads" type interaction is common distancing strategy for scum, note Keldeo also doing that with Sloth. But I'd expect that Jarizok wouldn't have just left his vote on his partner all day that day. I'd expect exactly what Keldeo did with Sloth, vote for distance but find a different person. I'm not sure what to make of Jarizok not reacting to my fluffy vote when he was around. There's a part of me that thinks if Jarizok had his vote on fluffy for distancing he'd have made some mention of it, but he ignored it. And day two, he dropped that suspicion completely and just voted Terrain and left it there all day.

On fluff's end, I'm not sure what to do there. Day one I was asking him about jarizok because didn't know what to make of him and his interactions with fluffy. I thought Jarizok was scum, but as I thought he was scum last game we played together, I needed another opinion and enter fluffy. Fluff doubled down on his suspicions of Jarizok after that. Is this bussing? I'm not sure, but his sticking with me on the Jarizok wagon even though people wanted Vaimes looks really good, but if you're going to bus, and Jarizok was almost definitely getting lynched, sticking there and not budging looks good. It looks great because when people do partner analysis, they often times go oh well this player could have jumped off and not bussed so obviously they're not partners. So, if you're gonna bus, this is how you do it.

Now would Fluff bus there? I don't know. This is where I wish I knew fluff better to know what he would do as a player. I've seen him bus on day two in the Sooh game, but that wasn't multiball. Like my cardinal rule in multiball is don't bus, don't try to crosskill until you have to. (The crosskill is game dependent). If fluffy abides by these same rules, he's town.

 

That's not a specific Jarizok problem, it was mix of a self-deprecating joke (usually my posting habits are horrendous) and just a reminder to people in thread that Jarizok was coasting and really needed to do something.

I think you're misunderstanding what I was going at with Cerber. I'm not saying that people who thought Sloth was town are more suspicious, just that you can't clear people who thought he was scum off the basis that Sloth was actually scum, since Jarizok's teammate didn't actually know that. Cerber's list was talking about how people were towny for suspecting Sloth/Keldeo, and I wanted him to re-evaluate in light of the fact that those suspicions mean nothing.

 

Man does Mendel look like Jarizok's partner. Classified him as LHF, ramped up the suspicion on Sloth at end of day one when Jarizok was also becoming a point of contention. Day two did the same thing regarding Vaimes when the Jarizok wagon was also there and we wouldn't budge. Jarizok's "Has anyone played with Mendel" feels like a wink wink I don't know this guy. And that one post to Mendel about him just trying to look town feels like distancing. (Okay it's felt like something new every day, but it does look like distancing.) This is just classic team behavior in multiball.

But the thing with Mendel is that he's just been so active and aggressive at times, which is not something you very often see of scum in multiball. His views on the nightkill in which cross killing is the correct move might make this a little weaker though. If he thinks the proper move for scum is to crosskill then he might try to make himself look as town as possible to avoid a crosskill. I'm not sure how much I believe that though because here he is talking about the cross kill as if the biggest scum worry is getting rid of the other team last night, seemingly forgetting about the watcher, which is what I would be hunting if I were scum. Hunt for scum during the day, take out the power role at night. But i've been bitten by power roles catching me at night, so.

But in a nutshell he feels very earnest, even if some of his scum hunting seems to be based on personality rather than what is actually alignment indicative. I really don't think that Vaimes warranted that type of reaction though, and this reaction when Jarizok was the other wagon feels partner motivated to me. The lack of awareness on that has me doubting that as well. He is my biggest conundrum because all evidence points to him, but I just don't know if I buy it.

 

I'm currently trying to figure out which players would shoot Keldeo.

 

OHHH gotcha. That makes so much more sense.

and yeah at the time I took it as a self-deprecating joke, and I was teasing you a little about being a low poster as well, but now as I'm thinking back I wondered if my initial thought was wrong.
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This would definitely help.

 

Optimal scumplay was probably just to shoot for townies, but I don't know if scum realized that.
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hmm.

 

So my plan was to go back to the past day or so and look to see what people thought about Keldeo. I do wonder if he was so convinced on Jarizok day two because he watched him do something. Jarizok's partner might have thought he was the town watcher? But then why not kill him the night before when Tom died?
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Probably fall asleep before rambling about the last two.

 

Tammy, your big post reads like it's going to end up on "let's lynch mendel so I can get him out of my head" -- and then it doesn't, and I'm floored. (I really love this game and everyone in it, did I say that?) It kinda made me think of the endgame, though, and not think of it at the same time, because I get as far as imagining who is going to be in it, and on the thought of finding scum in that group my brain just goes "nope", if that makes any sense?

I think we shouldn't talk about the watcher. At all.

 

I'm keeping my vote where it is for now, but I'm really not sure how the wagon is gonna roll or even which wagon might take off by End of Day.

I'm in the same boat as Tammy regarding this week being a REAL rough one for it being such a critical Day.