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Investigations into Chicago (Dresden Mafia) Day 1

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Riley, Dec 27, 2011.

  1. Moridin

    Moridin Minister of Magic DLP Supporter

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    I really don't want to roleclaim, not after everything that has already been revealed. I will if I absolutely have to (though, admittedly, that might not even be conclusively provable).

    That said, if you trust Vesvius to actually give you Nicodemus (and I mean really trust him to stick to his word, and hope that he isn't NK'd in the meantime), then I don't mind being lynched in a quid pro quo. I honestly don't believe that this will pan out, though.

    Just saw Stojil's post. Yeah, that makes the most sense, tbh. I suggest that Forthill (who has fortunately remained anonymous) protect Vesvius tonight. That should turn him to town while simultaneously protecting him from NK's (assuming his losing his powers happens the same night - if it occurs at the end of night, he doesn't need protecting anyway).
     
  2. Fishy Justice

    Fishy Justice Fourth Year

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    Yes, I confirmed that. I had it in my original post but I guess I excluded it when I edited it.
     
  3. Fishy Justice

    Fishy Justice Fourth Year

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    Wut?

    Riley, why you do this?
     
  4. Ash

    Ash Moves Like Jagger DLP Supporter

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    Damnit, this changes things again. Time to go back to my big ol' table of roles....
     
  5. Fishy Justice

    Fishy Justice Fourth Year

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    Just wait for Riley to answer that question. I'm assuming it's because I flip flopped in my QT at the last minute.
     
  6. Speakers

    Speakers Backtraced

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    No Ashaya it's (Ollie OR Klackerz) AND (Krogan OR Moridin), any other logical connective makes it all invalid. i.e. 2/4 scum.

    And now we have to consider Aekiel's claim about sneakthief false-claiming...dammit Aekiel, you had to complicate things didn't you?

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:59 AM ----------

    Also Moridin, Erlking can't be NK'ed while he's Erlking and has protection when Forthill protects him.
     
  7. SmileOfTheKill

    SmileOfTheKill Magical Amber

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    If Sneak is scum, that is the most stupid complex thing for him to make. I would rather think Aekiel is scum or Riley messed up. Hell Riley messed up when he asked me for my night action while I was blocked.
     
  8. Ash

    Ash Moves Like Jagger DLP Supporter

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    Alright, I will take a break in analyzing this stuff for the moment. We are definitely doing very very well, town!

    I don't think this mass roleclaiming is bad at all. It's hard for scum to target people when they have so many possible targets.
     
  9. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Sorry to complicate, but that seems to be my job this time round. :p
     
  10. Ash

    Ash Moves Like Jagger DLP Supporter

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    LOL I didn't even think about the fact that Sneak would have had to make those fake results. Gonna assume that Riley derped unless he tells us otherwise.
     
  11. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    It wouldn't be that hard to fake them. Just get a list of all the names, check who voted, then split the list in a viable enough way to implicate your chosen enemies. Hell, it wouldn't even be that time consuming, and Sneakthief did just dump all the raw material on our laps rather than go through it and come to his own conclusions.
     
  12. Ash

    Ash Moves Like Jagger DLP Supporter

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    I didn't use your method, I used my own, which was:

    6 scum did NOT vote

    Six people have died: (bold is innocent, italics are scum) (keep in mind that I had some reasoning for all of this)
    Jeram
    Duke

    Kalas
    Zennith
    Evan

    Mishie

    This leaves us with THREE of these people being scum:

    No votes:
    Gambit (CommanderBond)
    klackerz
    Vesvius
    Moridin
    Krogan

    Now we have two....
    Gambit
    Klackerz
    Moridin
    Krogan.

    I see nothing that means that Gambit/Klackerz and Moridin/Krogan are a set. Sorry if I'm missing something, I'm solely going by my own conclusions, not yours, as I don't want my view of people being tainted, lol
     
  13. Speakers

    Speakers Backtraced

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    Yeah but 6/12 scum didn't vote yesterday? That's a hard claim to make. Ultimately really helpful to us, but yeah, very specific as well. That's what allowed us to narrow it all down so much. I'm going to assume Riley derped as well.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:10 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:09 AM ----------

    Ashaya, you have to exclude Tide and Kalas because they weren't dead yesterday.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:10 AM ----------

    Note that I'm fairly generous with my assumptions as I do assume 1 of Jeram, Mishie and Duke is scum. And that leads me to 2/4 of the above being scum. If you assume all of Jeram, Mishie and Duke are town, that means 3/4 of Ollie, Moridin, Klackerz and Krogan are scum.
     
  14. Ash

    Ash Moves Like Jagger DLP Supporter

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    I knew about Kalas, he didn't vote yesterday so I simply skipped explaining my step of only counting him under dead not voters. My mind is weird.

    However, thank you, I did in fact count Evan as having not voted when he did.

    This means.

    4 scum are in the group of:

    Gambit (CommanderBond)
    klackerz
    Vesvius
    Moridin
    Krogan

    3 scum in:
    Gambit (CommanderBond)
    klackerz
    Moridin
    Krogan

    This changes things. It means that only one of those 4 are innocent....

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:15 PM ----------

    Also, you are right in the fact that one of Jeram, Duke, and mishie could be scum, which changes things a bit. I can't recall why I believe all three are town, but I know I had some reasoning, lol.

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:17 PM ----------

    ....and here is my reasoning for neither Duke nor Jeram being scum. Of course, both Klackerz and Ollie could be innocent.
     
  15. Riley

    Riley Alchemist DLP Supporter

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    Sneak's a flip flopper, by the time I'd sent the info he'd changed to using his night action. I never went back and fixed it. My apologies.

    Play On.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2012
  16. Uncle Stojil

    Uncle Stojil Auror

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    Can someone explain this to a noob and a foreigner?
     
  17. Ash

    Ash Moves Like Jagger DLP Supporter

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    He went back and forth, and could not decide between two choices.
     
  18. SmileOfTheKill

    SmileOfTheKill Magical Amber

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    Flip flop. Goes back and forth on what to do.

    SCREWWWW YOUUUUU ASHAYA.

    Also knew it.
     
  19. Another Empty Frame

    Another Empty Frame Fake Flamingo DLP Supporter

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    So basically I'm a semi-important town role and I don't want more reveals today. I think we have several great detectives running around but for god's sake I'm town just really don't want to die. I think we should Deadline Lynch: Moridin
     
  20. Speakers

    Speakers Backtraced

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    No Ashaya, it's logically impossible (if Mishie is town) for both Klackerz and Ollie to be town. The only way both klackerz and Ollie can be town is if 1 of Jeram and Duke is scum AND mishie is scum. I find that highly unlikely, I'll post the exact mathematical probability of that in a while but I'm fairly certain it is somewhere around 20% or something.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:35 AM ----------

    Actually, my bad, I derped badly. It is possible.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:36 AM ----------

    If 1 of Jeram and Duke is scum (and mishie is town). Then, both Ollie and klackerz are town and that would make both Moridin and Krogan scum.

    At this point I'm leaning towards klackerz/Krogan being scum but don't take my word for it, I'll come back later with a more detailed post on that.

    EVERYBODY!: Post your thoughts on who you think of
    Krogan, Gambit (Ollie), Moridin and Klackerz is scum and why based off of posting history, etc.
     
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