Actually, no counter. This way is as good as mine.

The reason I go with mine, however, is simply because if Titus/Citrus flips Town, we can have what I feel are two consecutive scum lynches and end the game. I’m working on the idea that I’m right about my theory, and it feels like a safer option.

However, this is, ultimately, a matter of opinion. So whichever is preferred is fine.

In the meantime, Unvote.

--

@Irdium

I saw those. I have yet to see a single one where you explain why you read him.

--

Also, I'll hammer.
If you guys want to switch to Titus/Citrus, I’ll hammer that. If you guys want to stay with Irdium, I’ll hammer that too.

---------- Post automerged at 12:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:52 PM ----------

^read Citrus, that is.*

---------- Post automerged at 12:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:53 PM ----------

Blab, I see you there. Thoughts on these new developments? I need a second opinion.

 

Opinion on what?

I have a very uneasy feeling about this shift to lynching Irdiumstern.

But if I had the choice between lynching:
a) 100% scum, 50% scum, other 50% scum
b) 50% scum, 100% scum other 50% scum
(percentages in my mind), I would always pick a)

 

...Yeah, that's why I wanted an opinion. I feel uneasy about it too.

But Irdium has done nothing to even seem Town, so I'm hoping I'm just paranoid.

---------- Post automerged at 01:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:02 PM ----------

Opinion on which lynch is best, btw. You answered it.

 

Because of the speed of the wagon or because you don't want to lynch Irdium period?

---------- Post automerged at 01:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:05 PM ----------

Wow this thread is crowded today.

5 hours til deadline, keep in mind we have twilight to discuss once hammer is dropped

 

As above, I assume a mislynch on the Titus/Citrus thing because worst case scenario.

Mislynch followed by two scum lynches, compared to scum lynch, mislynch, scum lynch. The former only really has value in terms of fuck yeah we're on a roll when at the endgame, which isn't really a thing anyway since the second scumlynch ends the game. Conversely, consider that each scum probably has unique abilities and might have saved up or gotten given gold to use them. Mislynching today deprives scum of no powers, while lynching scum today deprives them of at least one.

In any case, I have to sleep now. I'm leaving my vote where it is. Don't hammer yet, see what everyone has to say. We have some time.

 

Ok, so unless there's some drastic change, Irdium likely goes toDay.

Important Note: I'll hammer, but I'll do it at 3:00 PM (according to the game clock in the info, game ends at 4:00 PM PDT).
The reason for this is because I get off work at that time (5:00 PM my time, that is), and I don't wanna risk not getting back to the computer in time to Hammer.
Is that ok with everyone?

---------- Post automerged at 01:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:12 PM ----------

Next patient is here, will check on replies later.

 

More the former than the latter, because I can definitely see Irdiumstern being scum.
I don't like the lynchwagon being led by Moridin (I've always scumread the Moridin slot more than Irdium). I didn't like Riley and Citrus voting together for Irdium, though on reread that looks natural enough from both sides.
But this still makes too much sense in a Moridin/Riley or Moridin/Citrus world (setting up a mislynch on Irdium first, then on the other of Riley/Citrus later)
I'll try to look for something more concrete.

---------- Post automerged at 01:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:24 PM ----------

Vote: Moridin

 

I'll wait on you, then.

In the meantime, Irdium, if you're Town, you should have a Last Will set up, what you should be doing now is trying to ensure your target(s) are Town, but not obvious so they get intercepted.

 

I find interception unlikely, as far as mechanics go. Far more likely that someone just lied. I've had a last will up since Day 1, and have been updating it since.

 

Irdiumstern contributed little in form of analysis to the thread, plus he has the least posts anyway.
I can find minor scumtells such as him sheeping his reads.
Plus he has this declining activity (look at postcounts from earlier days vs. postcounts later) which I think is a scumtell for less vocal players.
Given that I still have townreads on the majority of players, Irdium is probably scum, and I'm fine with him being lynched today.

Nevertheless I feel like that we would have caught newbscum doing something scummier. I can explain Irdium as rather overwhelmed newb!town, and his lethargic feeling about him getting lynched fits with that.

I still think Moridin is scummier and would have pushed for his lynch had I had more time for this game this Day, especially as I have Irdium and Moridin as an unaligned pair now. I'll post my read with reasons in a bit since I feel like I need to do a readwall anyway. (after the Champions League games)

 

Ugh. At this point I will let the chips fall where they may. I have thought Irdium seemed scummy from the start, and given his recent behavior, I'm simply going to trust that.

While it is possible he's overwhelmed, that's not the impression I got from him for the first half of the game. It can only really apply to the second half, if you choose to see it from that angle.
Given that before that point, he was active, inquisitive, and somewhat sure of himself, the overwhelmed idea seems less likely than the lurking one.

He hasn't tried to defend himself or give any solid reasoning for his thoughts on Citrus, or revisited his case on Mori. A resigned Townie may be ok getting lynched, but still does his best to help Town before it happens. If he's Town, he's doing a poor job of acting like one now, and that's the final nail in the coffin.

So, 40 minutes till I hammer.
If anyone has any last things to say, now's the time.

 

Vote Count 3.6
(4 to lynch)

Irdiumstern (3): Moridin, Riley Poole, Citrus
Moridin (2): Irdiumstern, blab

Abstain (2) Sloth, Titus

 

His early game reads were so spot on matching mine I practically thought I wrote the post. But since then he's moved up on my scumdar so I'm comfortable with this lynch

Hammer time!

 

Ayep.
Lynch Vote: Irdiumstern

Gotta run now, guys. See you in Twilight.

 

Sloth:
I believe his tracker claim, given that he gave a correct result on me, and even if it wasn't hard to guess that I was VT, he must have also guessed that I didn't use payback, given that that triggers tracker, too, according to Proph.
Also think that Zeitgeist was a Watcher, given that I finally checked he flipped as Wiretapper (without r:facepalm), and tracker + watcher on scumteam seems unlikely.
Also unlikely to be on a team with Riley (given that they are our only possible investigators, unless font+Rubicon had something special to their roles).
Very likely town and very likely to survive to tomorrow, given that he softclaimed Bulletproof, so listen to him.


Titus:
In a scum!Titus world, scum only has three players (95%). Because of balance:
If scum has 4, then town can be at Lylo at only 2 mislynches. (given that Day 4=4+1vote vs. 5; Dead=3lynch,3kill,1daykill)
If scum has 3, they can win only win after 4 or 5 (depending on vig), given that the double-vote disappeared now (I assume the date it disappeared is fixed).
If scum only has three players, though, Titus must have been a roleblocker (or the unlikely case of a roleblocking third party), which is possible, I guess, given the effects of her commute ability can be explained by roleblocking)
Therefore, if Irdium flips scum, my top town read.
If Irdium flips town, less so, but not top priority toMorrow, given that this scenario means that we can still lynch her the Day after.

Citrus:
Still think unlikely to be scum, because of the jail situation. Only likely to be scum, if they had a restriction on not killing their jail-keeper early, which would be kind of arbitrary.
Given the majority of my townreads, I am not willing to rule out the possibility of scum!Citrus out, though.
I would bet the game on the unaligned pair Citrus+Riley, though.

Riley:
I townread Riley based on behaviour for the majority of the game, still read the early posts as town!Riley. Later posts (Day3+) not so much, also because of attitude.
Claimed Town Auditor with no verifiable result, which is not really that scummy, though, given that I see no scum!motivation.
Claim reminds me a bit of Zeitgeist's Oracle claim in WH3 (I can see how Riley thought it would help us), which is a + for town!Riley, (though maybe not given that Zeitgeist was on that team.
The difference to (Citrus, Titus + Sloth) is, that there are no mechanical reasons for me to think that Riley is town.

Moridin:
Most likely to be scum in a town!Irdium world.
Most of Rubicon's read still holds true, and I don't like how he pushed hard for a LuckyLee lynch. Additionally, if Irdium flips town, the Moridin wagon D3 looks suddenly very town and the switch to Irdium today is suspicious.
Also, looks very suspicious based on unaligned pairs, given that there are few likely scumteams not involving him.
Not very likely to be scum in a scum!Irdium world, because, well, the Irdium-lynch today.

scum!Irdium:
Titus

Sloth

Moridin

Citrus
Riley
(also called, I still need to reread the thread with the knowledge of (Zeitgeist/ika/Irdiumstern/??? in this case)

town!Irdium:
Sloth

Titus (winnable the Day after)

Citrus
Riley

Moridin

re fontisian's role:
I noticed that of the three people that got gold, all three verifiable acted on day 1, (Zennith, LuckyLee, Titus), so some kind of universal motion-detector seems possible based on that clue (and it maybe fits flavor-wise), but that's probably still OP, even with Payback.

---------- Post automerged at 06:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:52 PM ----------

In retrospect, something that I should have seen about the Irdiumstern lynch: who is scum!Irdium's partner? Sloth, Citrus, Riley, Moridin all voted for him (and all could likely have prevented that lynch if they acted differently). It's unlikely to be Titus (see above).
That leaves a 3-player team.

 

I would think Sloth is Ird's partner in this instance. Blab, look at how often Sloth says Ird is his top choice and never votes him. Classic distancing. It fits with the one of Titus or Citrus must be scum theme.

Riley is town if Ird is likely scum.

Commute is not rber. Commute gives action failed. Roleblock gives rb. See first post.

---------- Post automerged at 05:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:03 PM ----------

If Ird is town, then I would go with Citrus being mire likely town due to reluctance to vote Ird.

---------- Post automerged at 05:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:04 PM ----------

Gtg will try to post more b4 twilight.

 

Vote Count 3.6
(4 to lynch)

Irdiumstern (4): Moridin, Riley Poole, Citrus, Sloth
Moridin (2): Irdiumstern, blab

Abstain (1) Titus

Irdiumstern has been lynched. It is now Twilight. You may continue to post until I announce the lynch scene.

 

................fuck

---------- Post automerged at 09:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:20 PM ----------

If the quotes are at all related to the game I fucked up big fucking time.

 

If you mean Irdium doing that to avoid scum attention, that’d make no sense at this point of the game.

@blab

Going through this, just some thoughts, skipping my part:

On Titus, your 4-scum scenario doesn’t take into account vig actions, which would have reasonably been taken into account at this point. Otherwise it looks good.
Roleblocking is stated as such, going by Prophy’s words, when it happens, so if what Titus did wasn’t commuting, it also wasn’t roleblocking, going by Zennith’s statement.

On Citrus, it’s true that the jail scum makes the case so strange, but ignoring it for a second and looking at his actions without it paint a different picture. The Riley block, his odd reactions, the claims he wouldn’t get Zennith’s last will despite previous statements that planned for it, the sudden switch from being willing to be lynched to save Titus to trying to doubtcast her and back again…yeah.

On Riley, I agree. I’ve given mostly my reasons to think he’s Town. It does come down to balance.

On Moridin, agreed for the most part.

but here’s the thing: Given my theories and what’s been supported by it, along with Moridin’s actions…
Which is more likely? A scum in Titus/Citrus, or Moridin?
It comes down to that.
In my eyes, it was the first. Still is. Logically, it’s solid, 100% certain. In the end, Irdium’s flip doesn’t necessarily affect it.
The only thing that makes me pause is the scenarios you gave.

--

…
…Can someone other than me please explain the Irdium crap to Titus? I am so fucking tired of saying the same thing and watch it go in one ear and out another. Of her just ignoring everything I say, ask and demand.

…Fuck it, let’s breakdown my votes:

D1:
Rubicon, because of his first post.
Zennith, after his scummy actions. Do not attempt to tell me they weren’t scummy to everyone.
As for Irdium, I called him out, had him as a scum read, but others were stronger.

D2:
Irdium. For the WHOLE FREAKING DAY I had Irdium. And never changed my vote, stating that my vote wasn’t needed to lynch ika, and I wanted everyone to understand where my attention was.

D3:
Luckylee, because he didn’t shoot. You know that.
Moridin, because of my Rubicon theory. I explained it thoroughly. Irdium even tried to confront me about my not voting on him then. I told him that I found hi scu, but right now I was focused on Moridin/Blab. Interestingly, I found Mathblade suspicious, but not enough, and I never jumped to Titus’ bus on her.

D4:
Luckylee. I explained thoroughly why. And if anyone can actually tell me that they weren’t valid points and Luckylee wasn’t the scummiest, most useless Town ever, I don’t want to know who you have played with that tops him.

D5:
I’ve explained time and time again about Irdium and my theory. I won’t again.

This is your problem, Titus. This is where you’re a hindrance to Town. You bite on to something and tunnel it and make yourself ignore everything piling up against you that make you think you could be wrong because the level of your self-delusion about your ability to never be wrong (despite mathblade, maiden, and how many times have you flipped back and forth toDay, again?) is frankly frightening.
READ. MY POSTS.
Last chance, or I wash my hands off you for anything but lynching you as scum.

---------- Post automerged at 09:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:58 PM ----------

...sigh. Ok. That may have been mean.

I apologize.

Look, if you're Town, you will read my posts carefully, address what I've asked you to address (even if just to tell me how stupid I am for thinking that way), and use it to form a case about why I'm scum.

That's how it works. That's the game. I'm still waiting.

 

I will read tonight. I will do a town and scumcase but it's easy to bus when it won't matter. I expect the same from you.

---------- Post automerged at 07:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:25 PM ----------

Ok, well it may be Saturday.