It's time for the 86th Academy Awards Thread, or as I like to call it, "Silens Cursor Will Post Here Thread. As you can find with the nominations here, it's time for that betting game on who will take home Oscars. As usual, we will mention standard complains about nomination snubs, surprises, and why Hollywood and/or the Academy is awful.

Side-note: Ellen is hosting for the second time, and the theme is "Heroes". Should be interesting to see whether she pays tribute to the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

My thoughts and predictions:

Best Motion Picture of the Year - should be Gravity. Will be 12 Years a Slave. Just like how King's Speech beat Social Network, the arthouse film will beat the blockbuster film. American Hustle is the dark horse, but I hope that it doesn't win.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role - should be Bruce Dern. Will be Matthew McConaughey. For once, DiCaprio is nominated, proving that the Academy doesn't always hate DiCpario. Missing nomination - Robert Redford, Tom Hanks.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role - will be Cate Blanchett for a sublime performance, with a possible Sandra Bullock upset. Missing nomination - Emma Thompson (wtf, there's no love for Saving Mr Banks), because the Academy loves Amy Adams and Meryl Streep.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role - will be Jared Leto for his transformation and ridiculous youthfulness. Missing nomination - Tom Hanks. Yep, Hanks got snubbed twice. Michael Fassbender recognised after being snubbed for Shame.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role - close race between Lupita Ngyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence. Too close to call. Oprah Winfrey has been snubbed, but at least Sally Hawkins has finally been recognised.

Best Achievement in Directing - should and will be Alfonso Cuaron, but if American Hustle sweeps the award, David O'Russell could win. Steve McQueen is a contender if his film accrues more buzz.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen - should be Spike Jonze for Her. Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell will probably win for American Hustle.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published - should be Before Midnight. Will be John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave. Also, where the hell is Blue is the Warmest Color? Big snub.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year - Will and should be Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee and Peter Del Vecho for Frozen. Miyazaki could win for his swansong, but that film has a hugely controversial focus on beatifying a WWII Japanese man.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year - should be The Great Beauty, Italy. Will be The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium.

Best Achievement in Cinematography - should and will be Emmanuel Lubezki for Gravity.

Best Achievement in Editing - possibly will be Christopher Rouse for Captain Phillips, since the film got snubbed in Best Actor. Possibly Gravity.

Best Achievement in Art Direction - either Great Gatsby or 12 Years a Slave.

Best Achievement in Costume Design - will be previous winner Catherine Martin for Great Gatsby. Should be Patricia Norris for 12 Years a Slave.

Best Achievement in Makeup - should and will be Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews for Dallas Buyers Club.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score - not John Williams. Will be either Steven Price for Gravity or Alexandre Desplat for Philomena, because the Academy loves Alexandre Desplat.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song - Should and will be the Lopez Duo for Frozen. If U2 wins for that sloppy Mandela film (which is possible, because of their upset win at the Golden Globes), people all around the world will be sad.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing - Either Oliver Tarney for Captain Phillips or Glenn Freemantle for Gravity. I'd bet on the latter because Gravity is picking up momentum. If Lonely Ranger wins, people will cry.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing - Gravity or Captain Phillips. See above.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects - will be Gravity but should be Star Trek Into Darkness.

 

Ellen will make a stupid joke about comic book heros, the audience will laugh. That will be the end of the references.

As for the big dogs...

Best Picture should go to Her, because it's more interesting than the others, but it probably will go to 12 Years a Slave (which don't get me wrong, is a quality film) because it's being perceived as "most important". Runner up is American Hustle. Third is Gravity. Dark Horse is Her.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role - Will be Matthew McConaughey. Second goes to Chiwetel Ejiofor. Dark Horse is Christian Bale, who had a great character.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role - Amy Adams should win because she both deserves it and is due. Meryl Streep is the dark horse, Cate Blanchett is the clear frontrunner.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role - Jared Leto is getting all of the buzz, deservedly. Fassbender is second best, but Jonah Hill might squeak in through, although he shouldn't.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role - Jennifer Lawrence takes it. Lupita Nyong'o is a close second, and Sally Hawkins is the dark horse. Julia Roberts better not win. I hated August: Osage County.

Best Achievement in Directing - This is tough, because I think Cuaron gets this but Gravity gets ignore otherwise. I think Scorsese was the best of "directing" this year, but he won't win. David O'Russell just might win, with Steve McQueen as the dark horse. Alexander Payne does not deserve this spot, especially considering it ignores Spike Jonze.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen - should be Spike Jonze for Her, no question at all. But American Hustle takes this, with Nebraska as the dark horse.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published - mixed bag. I can say Philomena squeaking ahead here, but I think 12 Years takes it.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year - Frozen, no question.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year - I'm not sure about this one. I'm not such a foreign film buff.

Best Achievement in Cinematography - Gravity deserves to win. DP was the only good part of Prisoners, but Grandmaster did look beautiful, even it was a meh movie.

Best Achievement in Editing - tough call. I could see Hustle here, easy, although I think Wolf of Wall Street had better editing. Gravity might pull it off, with 12 years a distant third.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing - Gravity had amazing mixing, but llellyn davis was pretty great that way too. Hobbit shouldn't win but might. Lone Survivor? Please.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing - This is slightly closer, but I gotta give it to the invented science sounds of Gravity vs the invented fantasy sounds of Hobbit.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects - I didn't think Star Trek's visual effects were that amazing. Iron Man 3 was okay. Hobbit had some flaws. Lone Ranger was terrible, but it did have some okay effects... at times. Gravity should win this.

 

I loved Gravity, but I feel like it's being hyped just a little too much. Haven't seen any others in the list so not gonna comment.

 

Quoted for motherfracking win. :3

@Jeram, I'm not sure that I agree with you regarding Amy Adams. Yes, she deserves to win... just not for this performance. Her nomination is acceptable, but her performance in American Hustle was nothing special and felt a bit sloppy, compared to her other bodies of work. Personally, I feel that Sandra Bullock and Cate Blanchett are more deserving to take home the gong. And the latter probably will.

 

BAFTA predictions are up for the upcoming BAFTAs. What's noticeable at the BAFTAs are both Jared Leto and Matthew McConaughey, the bookies' favourites to win their respective categories, have been snubbed in the nominations. I guess the British didn't like Dallas Buyers Club.


It should be interesting to see how the BAFTAs affect the Oscars. Usually, they affect the races for Best Picture and Best Director, since the BAFTAs are the last major award show before the Oscars.

 

It will, just not necessarily the big ones. It could sweep the technical awards while leaving the others for a different sort of film. And I think that's perfectly just, we had some great pictures this year.

Personally, I'll be mildly annoyed if Jennifer Lawrence picks up the Best Supporting Actress nom ahead of Nyong'o. She was solid but not inspiring enough for it for me. That might as well be my view of the movie tbh.

No one is "due" anything. This is the sort of narrative that builds up around people that are popular, only for the complaints to start once this sort of thing punts other good actors down the list to wait for their "due".

As far as I'm concerned you win in your year or you go cry with DiCaprio.

 

Genuinely yelled at the screen when they announced this.

EDIT: also when they gave best original screenplay to American Hustle as well. It was drivel!

 

Something about the combination of O'Russell and Lawrence (well, or Bale) makes the Academy cream themselves.

 

BAFTAs result.

Gravity picks up further momentum in Director and Technical categories, while 12 Years a Slave maintains its chokehold on Best Picture. Surprise upsets occurred in the Supporting Acting categories, where Jennifer Lawrence narrowly beat bookies' favourite Lupita Nyong'o and Barkhad Abdi beat the others in Supporting Acting.

Cate Blanchett continues to prove that not even a Woody Allen scandal can deny her sublime performance in Blue Jasmine.

Personally, I do think that Jennifer Lawrence's performance was the strongest and best part of American Hustle, along with Amy Adams's rendition. It was a great, surprisingly nuanced portrayal that could've easily been hackneyed and one-note in the hands of a lesser actress. In any other year, I'd maintain that Lawrence deserves to win. However, anybody who's watched 12 Years a Slave will aver, rightfully so, that this award should belong to Lupita Nyong'o. Patsey was a character for a lifetime and anchored the film's emotional core in a heartbreakingly way.

The acting categories were all great this year, but seriously, the gong should go to Nyong'o for one of the best Supporting Actress performances in the past few years, not to mention one of the best debut performances in decades.

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Note: the reason why Jennifer Lawrence's win was an upset was because the BAFTAs was meant to have an hard-on for 12 Years a Slave, considering the combination of Ejiofor, Fassbender, and McQueen. Also, Nyong'o has won the last few awards, including the elusive SAG and Critics' Circle Award, which meant that if she had won the BAFTA, the Oscar would've been hers.

But now, with this win in London, Lawrence has clawed her way back into the race. I'm just grateful that the Oscar will go to one of two talented actresses. I would've had an aneurysm if it went to Julia Roberts instead.

 

I watched Philomena and I heartily back up that Judi Dench deserves to win Best Actress. She was not her typical ice queen persona as the warmth she brought to the character was fantastic. I'm extremely happy to see her be nominated although Cate Blanchett does offer stiff competition.