That's been my thought heading into this. Cat arranges things so Heiress takes down TLS. Heiress gets her win for taking down the hero and Cat avoids her more lethal defeat.

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Alternatively there was talk about TLS redeeming Cat as his win. Imagine if she did the opposite and got him playing for her ream.

 

So the Bard wins one, and loses one. I assume this means that Black is going to either die or be grievously injured the next time they meet.

 

Rule of Three is a win, a loss, and a tie. So he should be headed to a tie not a loss. This could easily tie into Catherine's battle since it's his grand plan for Callow vs Brad's. I feel like this might actually help Cat out actually, since her dying or losing completely would count as a loss for Black.

I'd bet on her either getting some of the heroes before Heiress ruins everything and puts her in a weak position, or Heiress dying but Cat losing the battle.

 

Is the Rule of Three responsive to Squire or Catherine? That is, can Squire lose - but Catherine win if she gains a new Name?

Squire is supposed to be the transitional Name, and she's already basically plumbed the deaths of what Squire can give her (since her 3rd Aspect was hacked off). And this is the climactic battle for Callow.

She seems about due for a new Name.

 

Pretty sure it's tied to Catherine, and besides, transitioning into a higher name probably counts as a win for Squire (especially as there is a rival claimant to the higher name).

Also seems way too early for her to move up in ranks to the fully named like Black. What we've seen of the level they operate on (especially with this newest interlude) makes me think she'd be outclassed like never before and be brutally slaughtered.

EDIT: I like the thought of her inheriting the mantle from Black early and having to try and make his reforms last fully in the face of renewed aggression from the aristocracy (Empress has a lot less reason to try and hold them in check vs her than vs Black, especially if she blames her for Black's death), but it seems too early for that.

 

Part of what can help Catherine is that, thanks to Black, the stakes are significantly lowered. It's a Last Stand now, and that can turn into a tragic Alamo kinda deal; and TLS is a grim enough hero for a tragedy as well. So now pattern where TLS loses is much easier to fit in than if this was a big climactic war-deciding battle, such as what Black almost walked into.

 

Book 2, Ch. 12. Things we found out recently:
- Final battle is going to occur in Liesse
- Strange ritual being prepared that revolves around RETRIEVE
- Childer, former contender for Squire Name

I think my theory is right. The Rule of 3 has to be tied to a particular iteration of a Name, not the person. Otherwise, we'd be having Rules of 3 occurring all the time between a Name and a regular person, but there is no Rule of 3 for, say, Juniper and Squire.

Of course, this distinction is moot for most Named characters because you usually can't lose a Name except by dying.

This is corroborated with Black's musings in the epilogue of Book 1. He notes that Squire's condition of letting The Lone Swordsman live and thus, kicking off the Rule of 3 was branded into the the Name, not the person.

I think what Black did was instead defuse a war-deciding battle that would reinforce the nation pattern. If Black 'won,' it would just be a continuation of Praes conquers, Callow resists. Instead, he's made the war-deciding battle into the upcoming battle at Liesse. Without his involvement, it'll be The Lone Swordsman vs. Squire deciding the fate of Callow. It's going to end up a completely different theme: the winner enforces his / her vision onto Callow, whether that be TLS's all-out rebellion or Squire's work within the system to reform it.

On a meta level, this is the end, one way or another, of this version of TLS and this version of Squire, but there has not been enough narrative build up of Heiress' faction. It's too early for her to lose fatally because it's not a referendum on her vision of Praes. So far, it's just been foreshadowing, and her form of battle fits in very well with whoever Squire becomes. After all, if Catherine succeeds in the upcoming battle, her next battle will be to enforce her vision of actual success in reform (i.e. the new Praes) vs. Heiress' traditional Praes vision (the old Praes).

Note that this also seems to explain why Bard thought it was so important for Black to be delayed such that he didn't hear the draw between Heiress and Squire. With Heiress' victory, obviously, a Name (TLS) vs. a Squire-less Catherine should easily be a win for TLS. She thinks that if Black knew that Squire was in a Rule of 3 with Heiress, he wouldn't have let Heiress come along to Liesse.

I think that Bard, however close she is to the story, doesn't quite understand Names as much as Black has figured out though, especially since Black has been Squire at one point. Black knows that Catherine has basically done all she can with Squire now, and she's ripe for an upgrade, so he expects Squire to lose but Catherine to win. In his interlude in Book 2, he keeps saying "Catherine has Liesse in hand" and "The rebel army had died without the kind of battle that would make a pivot in the story unfolding across Callow. Liesse would be the closing of the rebellion, Liesse and Catherine."

So, my prediction is:
- Heiress successfully pulls off her ritual to retrieve Squire for Childer.

This plays into the earlier Book 1 foreshadowing where Catherine specifically notes that she's sympathetic to Childer's desires and her only issue with it was that she would have to die for Childer to succeed.

It's also a very Heiress-type victory that focuses on her strengths (intrigue), and it means that whatever else happens in Liesse, she'd have a concrete victory even Catherine succeeds in enforcing her vision for Callow.

- Without this iteration of Squire, Catherine is no longer in a Rule of 3 with TLS.

- When she upgrades to a new Name, she wins and somehow proves the strength of her vision for Callow. No more Heroes will come from Callow until Catherine fails to succeed in her reform.

 

Excellent analysis.

Nit picky, but it's "heiress", not "hieress".

 

Huh. I really like that analysis, and it plays along with the Rules of Three we got going. First, Heiress gets her win over Squire by getting the Name to someone who will obey her. Then, we have Lone Swordsman get his win over Squire by killing Childer (we've seen that he sympathizes with Cat more, so I can see him discounting her as a threat with her Name gone).

The last set is trickier, but I think the tie between Black and Bard could be fulfilled by having the Lone Swordsman triumph over Squire (Childer) and then be driven out by Cat's new Name. This might sound like a win on Black's side, but we're told Bards are a lot closer to the Names, so if her focus this entire time was to break Squire, the narrative could make that focus transfer with the Name, even if in the end it's closer to a loss than an actual tie. Lone Swordsman, or at least some of the heroes, would have to escape to keep it within believable range of a 'tie' though.

 

A thought came to me about Catherine's upgrade. Squire isn't only the transitional name for the Black Knight but also the White. It has a lot of thematic support imo and would be the first big sign of Black truly changing the course of the pattern.

 

I remember the Name "Warlord" was dropped when Hakram made his pledge to Catherine. Also mention of Warlord being more or less extinct as a Name. Leaning on that as my bet for what she transitions to.

 

That seems unlikely to me. Warlord's an orc name known for it's brutality. I don't think Catherine matches that description.

 

White Knight also seems unlikely, as I'm pretty sure that that's a Good Name, and thus inaccessible for Catherine.

If she is losing Squire though (and I agree that it looks likely), there has to be another option beyond Black Knight, because I don't see Black dying at this point in the story, and Catherine isn't ready to face off against adversaries of his level.

 

Cat kills Chider and reclaims the name while it's still transitional.

We have been prepared for Cat to lose her name with that "we don't follow the squire, we follow Cat" speech. Hopefully Hellhound has a contingency in place for winning without Cat. I'd be surprised if she didn't.

 

New chapter is an Interlude from Ratface, and we get to see some of how other people see the Named (i.e. terrifying as fuck), and they finally find one of Heiress' spies. Did not expect who it was tbh.

Spoiler

Honestly just glad it wasn't Kilian, that would've sucked big time. Still, I liked Nilin, Catherine's gonna be devastated after all the grieving for someone that was betraying her all along.

 

Spoiler

Yeah, I can see suspecting Kilian after it was pointed out to me, but it'll be awful if that's where it goes.

The interlude, along with the double rules of three, really makes me expect a transition to a new Name soon. I sort of expect another person in Catherine's staff to get a claim on a Name, probably before her transition if it's gonna happen.

 

I suppose Robber and Juniper are the most likely candidates for Names at this point, if it were to happen. Ratface is clearly good at his job but Hakram as the Adjutant supplants him.

And yeah, very much in favor of Kilian not being the traitor.

 

I'm not going to bother hiding that, because it's not Kilian. We already know who it probably is.

Senior officers:

• Adjutant Hakram (Howling Wolves orc, Named, gossip)
• Legate Juniper (Red Shields orc, General Istrid's daughter)
• Staff Tribune Aisha Bishara (Taghreb human, noble)
• Supply Tribune Ratface (Taghreb human, disowned noble)
• Senior Sapper Pickler (High Ridge goblin)
• Senior Mage Kilian (Duni human, quarter fae)
• Commander Nauk (Waxing Moons orc)
• Commander Hune Egeldotir (ogre)
• Senior Tribune Nilin (Soninke human)
• Senior Tribune Jwahir (who? Nilin’s replacement?)
• Tribune Robber (goblin)

That one was probably Nilin, as per the Ratface interlude.

No former Rat Company officers are spies, except the aforementioned Nilin who was turned before joining the War College. Ratface, Kilian, Nauk, Hakram, Robber, Pickler are cleared.

Juniper is clear of suspicion.

In Book Two, Ch 16, Sergeant Asger is outted as a spy reporting to a noble sworn to Heiress' mother. He reveals the existence of a new spy, turned in Sommerholm.

• Adjutant Hakram (Howling Wolves orc, Named, gossip)
• Legate Juniper (Red Shields orc, General Istrid's daughter)
• Staff Tribune Aisha Bishara (Taghreb human, noble)
• Supply Tribune Ratface (Taghreb human, disowned noble)
• Senior Sapper Pickler (High Ridge goblin)
• Senior Mage Kilian (Duni human, quarter fae)
• Commander Nauk (Waxing Moons orc)
• Commander Hune Egeldotir (ogre)
• Senior Tribune Nilin (Soninke human)
• Senior Tribune Jwahir (who? Nilin’s replacement?)
• Tribune Robber (goblin)

That leaves three possibles:

Aisha Bishara, who’s been cleared by Black and reached an understanding with Cat. Her memoirs fondly reminiscing about the 15th are quoted at the beginning of Book Two, Ch 18. She seems unlikely to be a spy now.

Senior Tribune Jwahir who I don't remember seeing on screen yet. His name is on the Character List. Ratface’s interlude mentions that Nauk has a new Senior Tribune now, so perhaps Jwahir is him.

Commander Hune. A female ogre. My pick for the senior officer spy. We know little about her.

My suspicion is that Hune was turned after the fallout involving the Callowan desertion at Summerholm and the creation of the Forlorn Hope. Hune’s troops were risking their lives holding the city together while the cowards fled. Instead of execution they're allowed to continue serving.

Seems like a prime opportunity to get Hune to question Cat’s command. If true, then she may be having second thoughts after Heiress released the demon.

Hune seems the most likely candidate for spy amongst the senior officers to me, largely by process of elimination. It's possible that a Rat Company stalwart was turned at Summerholm instead, but they're Cat's staunchest supporters.

Sorry, Hune. It's all on you.

 

Robber getting a Name would be great... I think it'd set up an interesting goblin Name-off with Childer if she gets the Squire Name and a nice contrast between Catherine (now two races with new Names, no real leverage over them other than they like her) and Heiress (a goblin Name under her control due to the necromancy leverage).

 

Can someone explain to me how Deadhand is a Name? Ratface says that Hakram has the Name of Deadhand and I can't remember which chapter talks about orc Names, but Deadhand seems different to the examples I vaguely remember.

I mean, everyone agrees that Hakram is Named, but if I recall correctly Cat doesn't know what the Name is yet and I only remember Ratface using the Name Deadhand.

Edit: Just double checking back to see when he lost his arm and noticed other uses of Deadhand, but also Cat seeming to use Adjutant as a Name.