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A Super Highschool Level Mafia ~Mafia Win~

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Lexicat, Oct 18, 2013.

  1. Caesar

    Caesar First Year

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Cork
    Fishy Justice:

    RVS stuff. Aside from interplay with Lucky, nothing of note.

    Pretty fillerish here. The question for Aek is the closest thing to content here and even that isn't great.

    Some understandable confusion about Lucky's post. I like the request for clarification of #99- it was a bad post. Actually, I like the pressure on Lucky in general. On the other hand, the evasiveness regarding his scum reads is bad. Repeated pressure on Aek is ok.

    Filler.

    This feels bandwagony, as others have noted.

    Again, fillery. I do like asking Wetnurse to explain the reasoning behind his question, though.

    Pressure on InBlue is good. Apology for lack of activity is appreciated but not worth much without more content. Rest of the post is pretty meh.

    Defense of scum reads from Bill is alright. The scum team clarification is good. Most interesting part of this is promised analysis of Lucky and Sesc, which I await with interest.

    Summation: Unlike Sesc and Lucky, Fishy's main problem is lack of activity as opposed to scumminess. Currently, I'd rank him as scummy but less so than the former two. This read may be subject to change depending on his upcoming analysis.

    ---------- Post automerged at 00:05 ---------- Previous post was at 00:03 ----------

    as opposed to *active* scumminess.
     
  2. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Fact: You are investigating scum among Fishy, LochNess, Lucky, Sesc and Wetnurse.

    Fact: You have posted 3 PBP's on Sesc Lucky and Fishy.

    Opinion: Pressuring everyone equally is the same as pressuring no one.

    Corollary: Voting is the most pressure someone can deliver.

    Hypothesis: More PBP's detract from what you've already posted and further delay an opinion.

    Conclusion: Summarize. Vote. Explain.. please.
     
  3. InBlue

    InBlue Muggle

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2013
    Messages:
    1
    Hi people. I haven't been able to be on since last night, catching up now. Will respond/post more thoughts when I'm caught up.

    ---------- Post automerged 10-30-2013 at 00:06 ---------- Previous post was 10-29-2013 at 23:05 ----------

    So I've had to read 12 pages of info in like a day, which means I did a LOT of skimming. (Srsly, I can't thoroughly read it all and NOT fail out of school.) Mainly what I was trying to pick up was the gist of what was going on, a general feeling of each person's character (i.e. how they post, what the posts are like), and what each person was arguing for/which side they were on/why.
    Here's what I found (only live people, now):

    Bill Door - Doesn't post too much, but generally says thoughtful and consistent things.
    Read: Pretty Towny.

    Blab - Posts significantly. Had a lot of controversy in the beginning, but explained himself well and has gotten out of it by now.
    Read: Towny, I guess

    Caesar - Has done many analyses of late. Post quality/positions seem pretty consistent. Hasn't made me suspicious, but I may also just not be good at this game.
    Read: Towny, I guess

    Fishy Justice - Didn't make too much of an impression at first. I couldn't always tell just which side of an issue he was on, sometimes b/c of not being as vocal as others, others because his posts had no clear conclusions or indications of his actual opinion.
    Read: Scummy, I guess

    Kalas - Posts a lot. Likes to yell at people. Long posts with lots of analysis and pressure. Scumhunts a lot.
    Read: Pretty Towny

    LochNess - At first, since I didn't see too much from him, I thought he was being evasive. But since then, he's being replaced. Now I don't know what to think.
    Read: ???

    Luckylee - I have not been able to pick out a consistent side or goal from him. Posts seem either fluff, not going anywhere in particular, or inconsisten with one another. Pressures others a lot, but doesn't seem as helpful pressure as Kalas. (I'm not going to do a PBP for him b/c Ceasar has done that.)
    Read: Pretty Scummy

    Sesc - Analyses a lot. Posts have generally been informative and logical. If he ever gives any inconsistency or switches sides, he gives his reasons and it's not a random flip.
    Read: Pretty Towny

    Wetnurse - I also had trouble figuring out his opinions, but that may be b/c he hasn't posted much, at least not enough for me to really notice. But from what he has posted, I couldn't really tease out a conclusion.
    Read: Scummy, I guess


    I avoided voting before because I didn't want to make anyone mad at me on my first post. But now I'm gonna go with my strongest instinct.
    Vote Luckylee
    Prove me wrong.
     
  4. Fishy Justice

    Fishy Justice Fourth Year

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    Rescind Vote
    InBlue got better.


    Sorry about the delay on LuckyLee. There are already 2 PBP's on him, and I wanted to avoid repeating too much. I finally decided to just do a readthrough of the thread and offer my opinion on his posts as I went, keeping in mind what Font and Caesar have already said. I ignored some posts, mostly one liners.

    Post 36: It’s been touched on multiple times. This post is a summation that results in no pressure on anyone. There are hints of it, but they’re lost amongst filler. As Caesar mentioned, Lucky gave Aekiel an ‘ok’ for mechanics talk in this post.

    Post 79: We’ve been over why he was wrong about Blab. I still find it a little strange Lucky thought that blab was lynchable, derp or no.

    Post 81: We’ve been over why this is bad, as well. It basically reads like an excuse to not post. The promises also remain off. They don’t really accomplish anything.

    Post 83: He follows up on his poke at Aekiel, but hasn’t given reasons yet.

    Post 86: Explaining why he thought blab was going to be lynched, and why he believes blab’s claim. He provides some of his own reasoning, and finishes by repeating Font’s reasoning. Overall an ok post.

    Post 99: Caesar broke this one down already. It feels defensive to me. He starts with a fair point about bandwagons, but goes on to a very weird comment about Proph and Aekiel’s contributions. In this he reverses his position about Aekiel’s mechanics talk. This might be a sign of adopting Sesc’s opinion of Aekiel.

    Post 106: He explains some of his positions in this post. He puts some pressure on Proph and Aekiel here. His pressure lacks teeth, however, and is ignored.

    Post 116: I hate this post. I hate it. But, after you understand he’s talking about it’s fine. He retracts his pressure on Aekiel , and pressures Proph.

    Post 123: The cypher that explains 116.

    Post 148: Decent explanation of an earlier position.

    Post 180: Gives some reads, goes back to pressuring Aekiel and Proph. Is self conscious about his play, explaining it as, well, cluelessness. He goes back and contradicts his ‘scummy as hell’ comment about Aekiel and Proph by saying Proph ‘looks better on my reread.” Says suspicions are Lochness, Caesar, and Fishy. He only really supplies reasons for me. Finally votes on Aekiel.

    Post 186: Arguably his best post.

    Post 207: Reaction posts are bad. They’re so bad it’s a stereotype. Caesar pointed out Sacrifice, I’m going to point out the last game smile played. I’m afraid I don’t remember which game that is, if someone wants to know I’ll look it up.

    Post 212: Reasonable.

    Post 227: Readwall. He puts Sesc down as town. He starts reversing this shortly. Good pressure on InBlue.

    Post 243: Arguably defensive. It doesn’t accomplish anything, either.

    Post 246: This post explains a lot. See, one big issue Lucky had in day 1 is he never pressured anyone with a vote. The result was a lot of his pressure was noncommittal and didn’t really accomplish anything. This could be him legitimately not understanding all the things a vote can do, or it could be trying to explain his complete lack of voting all game.

    Post 248: Throw lynch votes early. It gets results.
    He pressures blab a little here. He says I’m not the best option, and starts to reverse his view of Sesc. He admits he doesn’t have any ‘concrete’ scum reads.

    Post 252: Reply to Sesc. He pressures Sesc for reads. Explains his vote for me over InBlue.

    Post 255: Asks Sesc about a proposed Scum team. I would like to see if Lucky has reasoning for this team, or if not, why he asked about it. It’s also interesting that I’m not a part of it, even though I’m his main vote.

    TL;DR: His posts have been somewhat inconsistent for reasons Caesar has already mentioned. I would argue he's gotten defensive at times, and has been self conscious about his play. As it stands I would say there's enough bad there to push a lynch right now.

    Lynch Vote: LuckyLee
     
  5. Lexicat

    Lexicat Second Year

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    79
    Vote count will be edited in here.
     
  6. blab

    blab Second Year

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    Berlin
    Unvote

    @Caesar: Search by information confirmation bias
    You also missed some context while analysing those posts.

    @Sesc: I thought about 1 and 6. I am not sure what response you are looking for here, given that thinking about those questions didn't help me find anything out about possible alignments.
    3 & 4: Reverse gloating is bad, I am not sure what exactly happened to deserve such gloating (unless it is not just about the night). Town-read: Either he is scum or he has a lot of trust in his reads. What do you conclude from this?
    2 & 5: 2 has already been commented on. 5: Caesar has posted lots of things that were more or less already said. What do you conclude from this?

    Not a fan of you not posting your own opinions, tbh.

    Posting opinions myself, then:

    LuckyLee is scummy and his lynch would be informative, but I'm having trouble to construct a viable scum-team with him. Lucky-Kalas-Wetnurse maybe.

    Wetnurse posts day 2 consist basically of a bunch of vague reads. Still not a fan of him.
    Vote Wetnurse

    I think a case can be made that we should lynch LochNess.

    Reason: Low Risk
    The risk of a lynch is to hit town. Given that LochNess is not exercising her town vote (and possibly her town-power), the risk is relatively low. We also loose the least activity. Given that if we lynch town, we might be at MYLO day three, we should at least have people who post.

    Reason: Posting
    Three out of 4 posts suck

    Reason: Scumteams:
    Instead of looking at her posts let's try to be deductive.
    From the perspective of any town-player there are 84 possible scum-teams. (Unless you have a night-power that scum/town-firmed another living player). I challenge you to try to reduce the possibilities through (un-)likely pairs/reads/whatever (if you want to, you can even weigh them) and look at your results. I'm pretty sure she will be close to the top (I realize that any eliminative method like this disenfranchises against less-prolific/content-less posters).

    Reason Modgaming:
    Observation: Lexicat gave us an extension for replacing Rents
    Assumption: There is a 3-member scumteam.
    Case a): LochNess is town.
    Sub-Case a) There is a third party.
    Result: There are 6 town (including LochNess). We need 6 votes to lynch. If this is the case we should have gotten an extension already, probably, given that town can't lynch by ourself.
    Sub-Case b) There is no third party.\
    Result: Similar to a) except weaker, because it actually is possible to have a town-lynch.
    Case b): LochNess is scum.
    Not giving us an extension makes sense.

    Drawbacks: A flip wouldn't tell us that much as for example LuckyLee's I think.

    I want opinions on this.

    The rest of the players is on the townier side of those three, I guess.
     
  7. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    So Luckylee would be the most informative lynch, Lochness looks bad through modgaming and your votes on Wetnurse? :/


    case c) Lochness gets modkilled at Days end for AFKness.

    Lexi, please confirm if this is the case as it would have a massive affect on the game.
     
  8. Bill Door

    Bill Door The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    Using a lynch on Lochness seems a bit counterproductive to me when we have several other viable options. I think the main problem is that if she does flip scum there's no real way to link her to anyone else, whereas if we lynch someone who's been more active in the thread we have 2 days worth of talk to pull possible connections from.

    It might be better if you use your power on her, at least then we won't have wasted a full days worth of talking.
     
  9. blab

    blab Second Year

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    Why is that weird/questionable? I am voting for scummyness.
    I am not actually that sure of my reasoning on Lochness, and LuckyLee has at least some useful posts, Wetnurse doesn't. Plus, I am kind of suspicious of any wagon given that we need a basically pure town wagon to lynch scum.
     
  10. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Urgh. I need to return to blab's role reveal, sorry.

    I want everyone to strike that reveal as an argument for whatever out of their heads. Look only at his posts. In the case of Mafia!Macho Sniper the reveal would have happened in exactly the same fashion as with a Town!Macho Sniper, because the reveal is something that is tied to the role -- and not to the alignment. I currently have a nightmare that blab slips through the cracks because everyone is using the usual game logic. It doesn't apply here. His reveal doesn't factor.

    To that end, he's busy doing stuff, but I'm not too happy with his last post. We should lynch the most suspicious person, and I don't think that's LochNess. So what I mean to say: blab's still more town than not, but I have serious trouble seeing the "strong must-be Town" everyone else seems to have.


    My own opinions should be pretty obvious. I was wondering whether to lynch Luckylee or Caesar, and I think I decided on Caesar.

    1 is tied to 2 and 3. I should have had more votes on me. This means notably Caesar, Luckylee and Kalas. I wasn't Town by any means. 6 is what I wrote above, but most importantly, this post irked me:
    Everyone else went with the claim too, yeah. Perhaps it's the careful wording, perhaps it's the unvote -- for the longest time, I read this as Caesar rescinding from a vote on blab, but that's not at all what it was, he was voting for Luckylee at the time -- either way, that's the reaction to blab's claim I like the least.

    Aside from that, blab is entirely right that Caesar is doing the bandwagon of all bandwagons. His Aekiel vote is based on mine (notice also the soft defence of Kalas there and that the vote only came after BillDoor pushed), his readwall is based on fontisian -- he actually asks her to post hers so that he can compare --, he's been pushing his post count up the easy way with asking everyone questions and finally today with using the thread as his qt.

    So all in all, I think Luckylee is bad, but Caesar is worse.

    Vote Player: Caesar
     
  11. Lexicat

    Lexicat Second Year

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    Mod Note: I will not modkill LochNess at day end. I am still looking for a replacement, and may have one lined up. It's incredibly frustrating.
     
  12. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Because toDay you've called Wetnurse out on a bad read wall and then your vote. That's it. Whereas you've made a case on LL and followed your WN vote with a case on lynching Lochness. Its completely inconsistent.

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:45 PM ----------

    .. Actually on reread what happened to your Caesar suspicion? You pressured Bill about it then just let if drop.
     
  13. Lexicat

    Lexicat Second Year

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    Mod Note: I think I have a replacement for LochNess, and as such I will be extending the deadline 24 hours. The new deadline is October 31st, 6 PM Eastern.
     
  14. blab

    blab Second Year

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    I am not sure I am entirely getting what you are getting at, so let me explain what I was/am thinking:

    Towny:
    Me, Bill, Kalas, Sesc
    Null: InBlue
    Scummy: Fishy, Caesar, LuckyLee, Wetnurse
    Gets replaced: LochNess

    Wetnurse got my vote for only basically only having a readwall ful of non-commital reads. Also for being theleast prolific poster of my scumreads. I am hesistant to jump on a LuckyLee wagon when I would be voting with Fishy and InBlue, given that they aren't exactly my strongest townreads. I am sill suspicious of Caesar, and agree that posting lots of scummy cases is bad. Fishy, I have to do a reread on.


    The "case" on LochNess was just a thought that came to me during lecture, After having thought about it more I don't think it's a good idea anymore and if you want to I can post that reasoning, too, it will porbably just derail.

    ---------- Post automerged at 02:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:14 PM ----------

    And now that we get an extension part of it doesn't make much sense anymore anyway
     
  15. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I was saying that, given what you'd posted the vote for WN was very out of place. If you'd posted the above with your it would have been fine.
     
  16. blab

    blab Second Year

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    Alright, are we still playing?
    We do want to lynch somebody, right?

    Anyway, Wetnurse has kind of vanished again and I doubt I can lead a lynch on him. So:
    Unvote Vote Caesar


    Probably correct:
    Fishy Justice (2) Bill, Kalas
    LuckyLee (2) InBlue, Fishy
    Caesar (2) Sesc, blab
    Not voting LuckyLee, Caesar, LochNess, Wetnurse

    You need to vote and say something, people. Surely you have a preference.
     
  17. Bill Door

    Bill Door The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    At the moment I'd be pretty happy to lynch any of those three, my bigger worry is that we just get a no lynch due to people not voting. I don't have much time now but I'll be back in a few hours and I'll change my vote if I need to.

    By my count we have 10(?) hours left.
     
  18. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Caesar disappeared too. If we had had the normal day, he wouldn't have been back to vote in time.

    What's up there, Caesar?
     
  19. Ash

    Ash Moves Like Jagger DLP Supporter

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    I'm here to monitor these halls, keep the jail, and stop all of you from breaking any rules!

    In the name of the game, I'll punish you!

    Monitor Imprison Power, makeup!
     
  20. Bill Door

    Bill Door The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    Eh, I'm guessing this means that you're replacing LochNess? What's your thoughts on the 3 current lynch wagons? We need votes.
     
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