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Avatar: The Last Airbender (Tinyhunt Variant III) || CONCLUDED

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Zeitgeist, Mar 1, 2014.

  1. Sloth

    Sloth Professor DLP Supporter

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    Hungry for apples?
    That's the thing though--people are acting like we didn't deserve this win or that it was handed to us, or that it was plain dumb luck...and frankly, that's really annoying me after the effort I put into making it happen.

    It wasn't dumb luck. It wasn't an accident. It was a town victory.

    Not to say there wasn't a level of gamble that was involved here, but it all worked out and it was great! Come on guys. :facepalm

    I was really hoping for a big "YEAH, we're town and we're awesome!" moment when everything was finally revealed. Celebrate a bit.
     
  2. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Sloth, your plan only worked because Lexi and Schro were stupid enough to shoot Nemrut, when they could have souped him or shot you or Lyrium and won right off the bat. You're saying you were prepared for anything, but it really only worked for one specific, moronic scenario.
     
  3. Sloth

    Sloth Professor DLP Supporter

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    Ok, Fonti, let's talk about this for a second, just like you taught me:
    You're right, those are all events that could have happened and would have lost us the game--like I said, there were gambles.
    What you have to ask yourself is why they didn't. Even more than that, why I wouldn't plan for that?

    -Soup Nemrut? Not likely. Lexicat suspected Nemrut was Aang, she also thought it could have been Citrus, while I all but confirmed I was cabbage. Why would she go for the 50% chance when she could have the 100% chance?
    You could argue about how it was obvious Nemrut was Aang until you're blue in the face, but remember what you taught me: Hindsight bias. She thought it could be Citrus, and didn't want to take a risk.
    I decided that she would NK him and soup me-the smarter strategy. I was half-right. I assume she was being overtly cautious.

    -On Lyrium getting NK'd, I counted on Lexi not going after her after making a big deal about the Spirits making sure to protect her. It would have won her the game to do so, but I guessed she had no way of knowing if the Pierce had been used (No live players are told), and assumed she'd be protected.
    (I won't even bring up how she had her wrapped around her finger anyway, and wasn't much of a threat. This is a hint, Lyrium.)
    I wasn't entirely right on that one, but right enough to make the difference.

    -Also, some people mentioned about the game not being over being a tip of who I was. Frankly, I didn't plan for that at all. I assumed that the game normally goes on until one side officially holds the Majority Vote, just in case someone does something stupid. Lexi apaprently didnt really consider it herself--or, if you look at her QT, thought Lyirum was Sokka, not me, based on how convinced she was on my role at that point. Again, my doing.

    Finally, I'm going to assume you were just annoyed when you insulted me, so I apologize for that. But don't call it "some moronic scenario." Call it what it is: The most likely scenerio given the information we had access to.

    Was I right about everything? Hell no. But I knew I didn't have to be to have Town win.

    And I didn't plan for 1 scenario. I planned for 4. Read my QT.

    /rant over.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2014
  4. Lexicat

    Lexicat Second Year

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    I lashed out too harshly last night. I want to apologize to Lyrium for being a bitch.
     
  5. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Alright, let's do this.

    Your cabbage plan was a good idea, but it wouldn't have mattered if anyone other than Nemrut was shot. Frankly, going along with the Proph lynch for the sake of appearances instead of lynching outed scum was a terrible idea, because it only helps in the world where Proph is scum and knows two roles to soup.

    I'd agree with you on the hindsight bias, if I hadn't figured out Nemrut was
    Aang easily in the dead qt.

    Here's where the heart of the disagreement is. Shooting Nemrut was moronic because the Avatar was no threat at that point. Even if you were shot, Nemrut confirmed that Lexi was scum, and Lyrium and Nemrut lynched her the next Day, we still would have won with Schro getting a free shot on Lyrium that night.

    If you look at the dead qt, you'll notice that Nemrut was protected. This is because dead players aren't idiots and aren't inclined to follow scum's advice. No matter who she shot, Lexi was playing a wifom game. She might as well have played to win it.

    You should have been souped as Sokka or Lyrium souped as Cabbage purely as a backup, as that's the only way we could have lost. Reading over the rules to look for possible problems would have told Lexi that. Souping Lyrium as Sokka did nothing for us, because if she was Sokka, the regular kill would have gone through anyway. It was pointless.

    I am no way insulting you when I call that scenario moronic. I am insulting my teammates, and I can't understand what they were thinking when they made those decisions.

    Don't get me wrong, you made the best of a bad situation. But the moment Proph was lynched, we should have won. Period.
     
  6. Sloth

    Sloth Professor DLP Supporter

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    Hungry for apples?
    End of game debate? It's officially Christmas.
    Cool.


    That wasn't the only reason I lynched Prophy. I only went along with it because it benefitted the plan I was already working towards to begin with.

    Plus: I thought he was Town. That didn't mean he was. I was fairly sure, but just in case, I decided it was a risk that paid out in several ways, while not doing it made things more difficult to figure out. Less targets, easier shots. If I was wrong I had my other plan to fall back on.

    Now the reason why I didn't mind letting Schrodinger live? Because (Sorry in advance Schrodinger) he was useless. He was confirmed Mai--he was more crippled than you were, since if we left you alive, you at least still had your ability. Schrodinger had nothing but a vote and a say in the NK, which Lexi had anyway. There was very little risk in leaving him alive for one more Day, because he was simply no threat, while what information I could gain from killing him would be great.

    I know this isn't standard Town thinking, but I'm not a normal Town--I do not think like ika who just jumps and throws a freaking stupid tantrum (not sorry about this) over scum not getting lynched, and if I see the advantage of not going after one yet, I won't.


    This is the same QT where you knew who Iroh was, who Pathik was (whom Nemrut could have easily been, btw, and I actually wondered if he was), who Jet was, and I think others, not sure, I read it yesterday.
    You had a narrowed pool, Fonti. You had bias.
    And even then you thought I was Cabbage until Zeit stepped in and told you my role.



    Again, read up--Nemrut was not obviously the Avatar.
    They could have shoot me and NK Nemrut, though, "winning" the game. Still confused as to why they didn't, but if they were going to go with one target (which they shouldn't have, but hey), it should have been me--and it should have been Assassination, because otherwise, Lyrium would have asked why lynch Nemrut. Weird.



    I know--what I meant is that if she HAD gone for her, and for whatever reason it didn't work (i.e. miscalculated on where the protection would fall, or even my own ability), it'd have looked bad. Hence, the safer target.
    EDIT: Forgot about this, but I mentioned it on my QT as well: Also, I assume she'd wait until there were less than 4 players to hit Lyrium, ensuring no Protection.
    Though given that you protected/pierced Nemrut, there's more to it than originally thought.



    Lyrium had to die so the NK DEFINITELY had to go to her, I managed to convince Lexi I was cabbage, so of course that assassination went to me, and she tossed Sokka at Lyrium, I believe, because she couldn't think of another reason why he wouldn't have used his ability yet if alive, if he wasn't the GoH.
    I'm fairly sure this WAS a throwaway kill since she thought it was in the bag at this point, but the NK and Shoot had been breadcrumbed and prepared for, I like to think.


    Wanna try again? No insult intended or condescension: This is legitimately fun.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2014
  7. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    I'm getting tired of this, as the points seem to be flying right over your head.

    Here's what you could have done if you had lynched Schro instead of Proph. Lyrium would have been shot that night. Then one of two things would have most likely occurred: 1. Lexi would have most likely failed her soup, winning you guys the game. 2. Lexi would have saved her soup, and Nemrut would have revealed his role and innocent checks on you and Proph. It would have come down to a lynch between Nemrut and Lexi. The reason you should have lynched Schro was because it would allow any role to share information at lylo without a fear of being souped that Night (as the game would then end). In this case, Nemrut could have cleared Proph and another player for you. The only time a lynch on someone other than Schro would have benefited you was if you were willing to bet the game on that person being scum and if believed there was a very good chance of that person souping their way to victory that Night.

    When I tell you that Nemrut was the obvious Avatar, I mean that he was the only person who could have conceivably checked Titus and then Proph. He made his knowledge of Proph's alignment explicitly clear when he tried to defend him, and I realized that he was the Avatar before Citrus clarified that he was not in the dead thread. Again, the Day before, we had already narrowed down the Avatar role to Nemrut and Citrus.

    Nemrut was no more of a safe target than anyone else. The only way he differed from the other targets is that his death did not grant an automatic victory. Equal risk, smaller reward.

    You seem to be missing the point especially in regards to the finally soup. Since we knew the Cabbage man was alive, if you were anything other than Sokka or Lyrium anything other than cabbage, then the kill would have gone through on Lyrium. Therefore, the soup only needed to be used to prepare for the one scenario in which a kill on Lyrium would not go through: the scenario in which you were Sokka. Souping Lyrium as Sokka was moronic because it did nothing the night kill wouldn't have already done.

    ---------- Post automerged at 05:54 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:49 PM ----------

    Oh, and if Lexi really wanted absolute assurance that Nemrut was the Avatar, all she had to do was let him live another Day and see the check come in, confirming that Citrus was not the Avatar.
     
  8. ika

    ika Temporarily Banhammered

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    I was planning on just obsevring the specs but then i saw this and loled actualy

    you obviously missed my QT.

    Also I dont play like a normal townie, I play off guts and my emotions. When im in a shitty mood, i make shitty post.

    When im angry, i come off in rage post.

    I dont care about my action, i did what i did, if you hate me for it, so be it.

    I also saw how someone said they would be ignoring titus? At that I say LOL! When you get to know titus on the level that i do. You will learn she is very dangrous much like me.

    TLDR: My action is my doing and dont give one fuck about what you think.
    Titus is not to be underestimated
    I play off guts and emotions, tring to apply logic to my thinking is bad, it doesnt work well
     
  9. Bill Door

    Bill Door The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    I'm just gonna say that this is the stupidest and most annoying thing that people do all the time. Thinking someone is town and then lynching them anyway for no benefit. The same goes for not trying to lynch your scum reads for no reason.
     
  10. Nemrut

    Nemrut The Black Mage ~ Prestige ~

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    Really nothing major, just that, while you had a plan Sloth, it seemed that most town (that survived until relatively late game), me included, were fooled by Lexi, who played really well.

    I mean, I was relatively sure on Lyrium being town, but other than that, a lot of the "subtle" roleclaims or reveals had gone straight over my head. On top of that, I completely forgot that scum got the avatar checks, which I hadn't considered at all.

    Can really only talk for myself, but I seem to have made a lot of blunders. Still not sure whether or not keeping "quiet" about Proph had been the right choice. I mean, I am certain I made people suspicious about defending him but...yeah.

    So, for me, really, it is about playing bad and not really contributing to the win that made me feel like not really winning. No offense to anyone really, but on the town side, only Caligula and Sloth were really competent, and am on the fence on you Sloth, since you really gave me the impression on being scum and I would have lynched you earlier if I had the power or ability to sway popular opinion xD

    All the best planning isn't worth much if you get yourself lynched.

    So yeah, that was why I didn't consider myself a winner here. Seemed like a "despite win".

    Still, looking forward to the next game. Hopefully, there will be improvement on my side as a player.
     
  11. Sloth

    Sloth Professor DLP Supporter

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    Hungry for apples?
    ...Wait, Lexi had you fooled too? Huh. I got the impression you were on to her yourself. Or at least thought there was as much a chance of her being Scum as me.

    Speaking of, why did you suspect me? I never got that, especially when everyone and their mother kept saying I was the towniest person around (thanks, I think?)
    When several players, all more experienced than me, back someone up, I'm forced to doubt myself. It's why I decided to back off from Titus on D2...not that I got a chance to, I guess.

    And I think you played fine, if suspiciously. When the chips were down, you weren't the scummiest person around.


    @Bill:
    Sorry. /shrugs
    I just don't play like that. Not that my strategy is perfect, it probably won't work again, but I'll likely never try the exact same thing again either.
    Fonti pointed out my errors, but I DID get the exact benefit I was looking for in playing it like I did.

    @Fonti:
    /sigh. Ok, you're right in the analytical side.
    I tried my best and did what i thought was best, though, and I have no regrets. I'm still proud of managing to pull this off, even if not as proud as I was. XD
    I will say you're overlooking two things though: The first, I'll keep to myself (I promise I'm not backing off, I just want to keep it private); the second is human error. Maybe it's not supposed to be considered a lot in the game, but it's always a factor in my choices.
    Anyway, thanks for the break down, it'll be useful for future games =)

    ...OK, I'm going to ignore that first part entirely, mostly because I HAVE read your QT, I've read ALL the QTs, and everyone and their mother have told you why what you did was a horrible choice. If nothing they've said has convinced you, nothing I say will, so, no point.
    For what it's worth, I don't hate you, I just find you hot-headed and impulsive. That makes you an unreliable Town. Not sure how you play as scum, though.

    The second part...I think you're the one that's not reading. I didn't say I'd pretend she doesn't exist. I said I'll hold off on reading her for the first day so that I don't just peg her as scum like this game. She comes off as scum REALLY easy. I'll wait until there's more information so that I don't jump the gun.

    Last thing--There's a Spell Check in the Message box, man. Please use it.

    --

    Also, weird question, but where the hell is the New Reply button? I'm not seeing. Is it just me?
     
  12. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    You know I have to know about the first one now, right?
     
  13. Sloth

    Sloth Professor DLP Supporter

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    Hungry for apples?
    It's not a big game-changing secret or anything, just something I believed would happen and may or may not have been right about which would have definitely resulted in a Town loss if I had been. I have no evidence to back it up and it's not my place to voice my assumption.
     
  14. Lyrium

    Lyrium Sent Back to India

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    Wow, everyone is such a downer that I feel like saying, "Snap out of it. Bring out the drinks and get wasted."

    Cheers to Sloth for having a plan and saving town. And massively improving his game play.

    For everyone who thinks that logic is the only answer to mafia, I think a bit of luck and chance have something to do with it. In Dresden mafia, town won because of one players last minute decision. I'd have to research a bit more but I'm assuming these are not statistical anomalies.

    Ika, there is something that I find adorable about your play style. Offing yourself to lynch Fonti is generally considered bad decision but maybe it was fun for RP purposes. Rest assured that yours was not the only one. I sheeped a scum so *shrug.*

    Finally, this was really an enjoyable game. I enjoyed having played it and being a part of it.
     
  15. ika

    ika Temporarily Banhammered

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    1) As i said I'm unpredictable, i play off my mood then logic. I tend to be a person of action and impulse to get things done. I am quite reliable as town when given time. If you think im unrelaiable townie, then you have quite a bit to learn. My unpredictability is what makes me so dangerous as town.

    2) bad idea, titus will drill you to death if you ignore her. I don't see how she comes off scum as easily once you get to know her playstlye. Although it could just be a my pov and my understanding of her.

    3) meh it may be annoying at times but even things like that have uses ;)
     
  16. Nemrut

    Nemrut The Black Mage ~ Prestige ~

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    Well, she was my number 2 and I did wrestle with the thought of either checking you or her on the last day but ultimately, I suspected you a bit more. Not really quite sure how and why, since it seems obvious now, but hindsight, huh?

    Guess it was mainly Caligula's post suspecting you.

    Not sure how that changed, but your longer posts made me a bit suspicious as well. Seem to remember that scum used to do that in the earlier games, pseudo analyzing everyone's post with long walls of texts in order to confuse people. Or at least one player did that.

    But yeah, apparently not, my bad >_>
     
  17. Sloth

    Sloth Professor DLP Supporter

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    Damn XD Sorry I seemed so scummy.

    This is why I try to never use meta: You used other's analysis along with scumtells from other sources to decide I was scum. That's just not the best way to go with someone like me, in my opinion.
    I've been able to tell that no matter how good/bad a player you think I am, there's no doubt I play the game my way and that's never in sync with how others would do it.
    Try to learn my specific style and then look for changes to spot scumminess. ...Or don't, actually. I'm fairly new, and I'll probably be changing it up until I find one I feel fits just right.

    Wall posts, though...those will always be around. I like them, and they work for me. If other players don't read them, they'll just miss more chances to figure out what I'm planning, which also works for me.

    My bad too, I was very sure you were scum until D3, then I was unsure if it was you or Lexi....and by the end of D3 I was sure it was Lexi. Sorry for doubting you.

    Eh, I'll just assume she'll see the folly on using something I claimed I would reliably do in every game we're together before ever getting a Scum role as a Scumtell. I mean, she's good at analyzing, and that seems fairly obvious.
    At least until I understand her play more, I'll go with the wait-and-see approach with her.