^ hoping there's some follow-through and not just pretty colors :b

Rubicon, presumably you have good reason for un-clearing Citrus from the PoE pool beyond keeping it at 4 players? Mind elaborating?

---------- Post automerged at 12:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:55 PM ----------

well the ^ sure looks stupid when there's a new page..

 

Fair enough, but it's necessary for poe

Either the site or my Internet is lagging ><

Hrmm. I wish you replaced dermon rather than the other way around.

I think there has to be a scum between Rubicon and TerRaine.

@snowvon
Readwall. Now. Vote who you think is scum, you keep posting names and then voting other people in the end and I don't like that at all

---------- Post automerged at 02:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:57 PM ----------

@Rubicon

I really think you're scum right now. Additionally, Titus did yesterday as well. You've tried to mislynch me multiple times + town read me when you didn't think it was possible. I need you to post a readwall please.

 

Also, I'm not sure if this has already been addressed, but I don't get why Rubicon never followed through on the plan to meta ika and Titus, and despite that was still pushing Titus as wolf well into Twilight

 

I respond by being a pot and calling the kettle black…your posts are long and give me a headache.


Problem I have with your points is some of them by your own admission point towards scum. My jury is still out on Math. I do agree that NKing Titus when she was her top scum read would be a pretty dumb move for a Scum!Math for the same reasons it would have been dumb for me to have done if I were scum.

It only seems secure because I only did 2 reads at that point. I hadn’t finished plodding my merry way through the thread to get reads on others and even with what I had pushing me to vote snow…at this point in the game the amount needed to lynch is much lower. I didn’t want to slap a tentative vote down if I wasn’t willing to step away from the thread and be okay with that person possibly being flashlynched while I was away.

Confused by this. What do you mean write a note? My automerge at the end of the post? If so I didn’t have the questionable Titus post pushing me to suggest her at that point in time. I didn’t finish my thought until a bit later.

I remember. Tyrion’s uglier the back end of an ass too doesn’t mean they aren’t awesome characters.

KK. This is a tough one because I’ve never played mafia at all before this game and literally all my experience with it stems from Sloth telling me about his games. I know for a fact he’s never pulled scum in any of those games so I never have had the chance to see how’d he’d even handle it. If I had to guess? I think he would have actually buddied up to me a bit more from the start of the game. I tend to start off a bit unsure in new crowds trying new things and gain momentum as I go. So I think he’d have been a bit more liable to throw in with me early to earn my trust and gain a misled ally. As it stands he’s questioned me on several of my reads and disagreed on points.

I’m not sure it was done specifically for that but I do know it doesn’t make me look good if you look at it superficially. Thing is when you hold off on a knee jerk reaction and scratch the surface you can see where this strategy doesn’t hold water. So IF the goal was to incriminate me I agree with the idea it would be put forward by a Newbie team hoping for a flash lynch the next day before I could talk my way out of it.
That does put a FoS (Im learning terms go me) on Atum for me. Not enough to vote him but enough to go back and focus on some of his past posts. If you’re right Mono and he’s been hesitant to slap a vote on his reads…his sudden speed to do so on me seems a bit out of character and planned.

From person none helpful point I’m enjoying it ^^ It’s a bit more complicated than I thought a “newbie” game would be.


From an in game opinion I’m getting a bit frustrated we’ve mislynched twice to go with the 2 NKs. It’s making me feel like we’re all missing something. Not sure how else to answer this one.

I don’t follow this logic….at all. Riley said they had prechat…as in it was available to them to have. He didn’t say they used it did he. And even if he did say that…why wouldn’t Burk/Loch/Derm been able to chat pre game? Loch was one of if not the first posts of the game…Burk posted once before his RL issues…I don’t recall Derm but either way that still 2 holes in your logic I think.

Newbie question. Isn’t that where the scum chat IS? In the QT? I mean I got the impression in my obs for last game. And honestly Math if you can be invisible what’s stopping anyone else from doing it? Especially during a time when no one is posting and they don’t want to be seen skulking about…

I don’t want to answer this agaaaaaaiiiiiin XD


Okay…the way I looked and still do look at this before I go back and conitnue my reread (might change once I do) is this …I wasn't entirely bothered by Rubi thinking I scumsliped and not bothering to vote for me then and I’m not now. At that point Rubi had professed suspicions of Ika for some time it made sense to me he'd go for something he felt more confident in first. Letting the issue “drop off” could be as strategic as pressing sometimes especially considering the context that the alleged “scumslip” occurred in. No one was pressuring me...it was literally the first post.



I figured if anything Rubi was putting the seed of doubt into my head and backing off to see what else I would do and if I would hang myself. In the mean time he could continue his other play on ika. I came back and later addressed what I did and I felt I did so enough for Rubi to drop it.





[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]

 

well if mbond isn't here it's time to wagonhop

unvote; !vote Atum (L-3)

i'm headed out for a few

 

@Terraine: I'm just dropping it...only chrome seemed to understand it and didn't agree with it. Guess maybe it's too weird or something. I'll just post reads in the future with them as town. :facepalm

I've never played scum on this board but usually one has to log into the board to figure out how to play/what to put the QT. Let's just move on.

 

Votecount:

TerRaine (1) – Atum,
Rubicon (1) – Citrus, Mathblade
SnowVon (1) – Rubicon
Atum (1) – Sloth, Monochrome


With 9 alive it’s 5 to lynch.

Day 3 Ends at this time!

 

Also most newbs don't use invisible. They didn't when the game was back on so either uber skilled newbs preflip or likely not invis.

---------- Post automerged at 15:34 ---------- Previous post was at 15:17 ----------

@Delphine: Thanks for switching to mbond too Tis helpful.

Looks like the current places are Rubicon and Atum. Rubicon/Atum are likely a scum team so they probably won't vote for Rubicon or Atum so we got problems. Even if the four of us agree we'd need a 5th. Any ideas on how to get around this?

 

Ok, I've been skiming over the last few Days to try and see if there's some connection I can find between Citrus, Snowvon, and Atum.

I was hoping to find something more damning, but here's what I got:

Citrus<=>Snowvon
D1
413: Exaggerated reaction to his seer not-claim, when no one was taking it seriously or even bated an eye.
581: "I'm against Snowvon because I gut town read him pretty hard." No explanation whatsoever beyond that. Voted Mathblade, and then right back on Maiden at #593, making the whole thing futile.
D2
956: Here, Snowvon voted Citrus with no explanation, his own post claimed he was leaning towards Rubicon as scummier.
1053: Has Snow as a scumlean. He hasn't addressed him all Day - actual questions here. Perhaps beginnings of bussing?

Citrus<=>Atum
D1
351: Has Citrus as a scumpect over "not being able to figure him out" (new-scum having his partner as a scumread for poor reasons cliche?). He never actually explores this further, whereas he later came to call me his strongest townread and jumped on ika in D2.
585: Atum is townread, despite no interaction.
660: Presses Atum on why he didn't vote - after Lyrium and I had already done it.
665: Response to no-vote.
D2
(Offhand comment about redacted posts. That's it.)

Snowvon<=>Atum
D1
500: Challenged Atum to lynch him/ika.
503: Responded to 500, promising to, but says he can wait. Nothing else came of it, at least not on Snow.
D2
(Nothing.)

Basically, these three have nearly zero interactions with one another, and of what they do have, none of it is relevant. No scumhunting one another, no relevant questions, no pressure, no in-depth analysis, nothing.
All they have are offhand-comments, actions like seem to want to make a show of pressing each other, and not much else.

The problem comes with there only being 2 scum, and the fact there's 3 of these means that there's a Town here that just isn't doing much, and I'm struggling to figure out which one is it. -__-

To me, it seems Citrus/Snow is more feasible, given everything I've already said, plus those interactions - especially the lol-vote in D2.
Thoughts?

---------- Post automerged at 03:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:50 PM ----------

Sorry about the delay, patient. Have another one in 10, so let me read what I missed.

 

If two scum were in those three, I'd pick Citrus&Atum. Snow to me just seems a bit of a weaker version of ika's trolling but is starting to help after what happened to ika. Snow's "bad play" was pointed out before and he seems to have straightened up for the most part. I really like Rubicon as scummy though but a Citrus or Atum would be acceptable.

 

Hm.

A) Yeah, given my latest post, I'm thinking so - Citrus/Snowvon.
I'm liking Monochrome for Town, it'd be hard to come into the game at this stage and not give something away.
Bond...big Null. Hoping he posts soon.

B) ...Rubicon, why was it so easy to get you to come around to my way of thinking? You came into today, declaring for all to hear "Citrus is TOWN!" and now, after my fairly hypothetical theory, he's scum again? What's going on?

C) Reads - start with Atum, I need another opinion.

 

B) I am thinking this makes the case for Rubicon scum with Atum. Rubicon is trying to give another townie. Rubicon and Atum won't vote for each other so they have to give someone else as we need 5 to lynch. It may almost be better to no lynch rather than anyone he suggests although now I am borrowing from Titus's playbook again which makes me really disappointed I scumspected her.

 

I wondered about that, it was strictly against the rules and an hour and a half after Night had been called, so I'm not sure myself - could have been eager to townclear himself, I suppose, after Maiden flipped Town.
I can tentatively see Town or Scum doing that, however his case seemed genuine. Not stronger than mine, but enough effort was there that I thought Town.

And ok, I'll explain once he replies.

---------- Post automerged at 04:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:19 PM ----------

Just off-hand, this is wrong, I hammered Maiden, she didn't vote herself.

---------- Post automerged at 04:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:25 PM ----------

This:

That's what I meant. Instead of leaving a note, why didn't you just say "Oh, tunnel Titus" instead?

Stop making me sound like a monster, woman. XD

---------- Post automerged at 04:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:48 PM ----------

Yes, he got better after basically EVERYONE pestered him until he did. That's not something you should forget.

I don't see the benefit of NL in this setting - I brought this up before. In WIFOM, NL meant that we didn't lynch someone we just couldn't decide on, since we'd get no information from it, and a decision couldn't be reached.
This is a flip-on-death scenario. Lynching gives us definite, solid information. Why shouldn't we lynch?

But yeah, waiting on Rubi's answers.

---------- Post automerged at 04:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:48 PM ----------

Anyway, I'm heading out now. I'll check back after the gym. Hey Snow. Something to say?

 

@Sloth 1283

I'm town because that's the way I was born. Is there really any way to answer this question that would make you magically see how town I am?

Readwall within the next few hours because driving practice today.

@Monochrome 1284

Oh Christ above it's Delphi and she's a waller. Excellent. How come I don't get a whole paragraph of questions?

@Sloth 1329

Thank you for making me green. Maybe there's only one scum between the three of us? I don't know how much average interaction there is between scumbuddies so that it doesn't tip off the town, whether it's too much or too little. Everything in that post looks like too little over the course of sixty pages.

/the end

If we throw everyone's reads together, then it's a safe bet that both scum are somewhere in: Snowvon, Monochrome, Rubicon, Citrus, mbond98, Atum.

I'm town so no. Monochrome started the game strong and feels very consistently town across the pages that have popped up since her arrival, so I think she's good. Mbond still hasn't posted at all and I don't know what to do with him. Bleh.

And now I'll be working on the readwall and keeping up with new posts. Just in case someone tries to lurkcuse me.

---------- Post automerged at 17:54 ---------- Previous post was at 17:54 ----------

Sloth how dare you leave right after I post.

 

I'm thinking that almost anyone that Rubicon and Atum vote on would likely be town. I can see the benefit but I'm thinking if we keep losing active town we're going to be in trouble.

Assume for a moment that it is a Rubicon/Atum scum team and we lynch anyone else:

There are nine players right now per Riley's post is the order.
1. Monochrome
2. TerRaine
3. Sloth
4. Citrus
5. Atum
9. Rubicon
10. MathBlade
12. Snowvon
13. mbond98

Eliminating Rubicon and Atum we have the following players:
1. Monochrome 2. TerRaine 3. Sloth 4. Citrus 10. MathBlade 12. Snowvon 13. mbond98

1) We lynch town.
2) They night kill an active town. (So no mbond kill) So we lose two town.
3) This means the next day we have 5 town versus 2 scum. This puts us at 4 to lynch. Assume Rubicon/Atum split their vote like they have now. Mbond most likely won't be active. This means the 4 remaining townies must agree on who scum is or there won't be a lynch possible.


In contrast assume no lynch (unless it is Rubicon or Atum)

1) Night kill kills an active person. This means we have 6 town left against two scum. We are still left with two to lynch but instead can have a little bit of disagreement amongst town as there will be 5 active townies instead of 4.

It really becomes a matter of if everyone can agree now so we can lynch scum but if we accidentally lynch town then all of active town has to agree the next day.

Does this make sense?

 

See #1274. I asked him to do something extremely important from a town POV (interacting with me in case I'm town and trying to solve the game today before we run out of lynches) and that I knew would be virtually impossible to fake as scum. He ignored me.

The post also summarizes my read of him and the reason it probably looks like I'm switching back and forth: That he's close to being confirmed scum in every way except for the situation about pre-game chat. But talking to Sloth and re-reading that section makes me less confident trusting this defense of Citrus: I also note that Citrus' own reaction to me mentioning it at the start of today was awkward.

At the end of yesterday, Titus was tunneling on me and I was tunneling on Citrus: He couldn't shoot me directly without looking bad, but he could indirectly attack me by shooting Titus. (The same reasoning that says "X probably wouldn't have shot Titus because Titus was tunneling on them" can be reversed to say Titus was an excellent kill for Citrus because she was defending him, and it sets him up to attack the people she was tunneling on, who are all most likely town AFAICT.)

Thus, at the start of today he slyly says, "Well, she was either right about something or it's an all newbie team" - i.e., hoping to position himself as cleared by the kill when it actually works to his advantage. He says he expected a Burkion kill, and it's true that some scum like to shoot lurkers, but (as discussed a bit in Brass & Tax) it's almost never optimal to do so since lurkers are easy late-game mislynches. I doubt Citrus himself would have shot Burkion.

He then follows up with a vote on me with no explanation. The puzzle piece that doesn't fit for him, however, is me suddenly switching to calling him town at the start of day, something I shouldn't have done as scum in this position. Thus his awkward response, because he's trying awkwardly to continue the strategy of lynching me today, even though my play doesn't fit with me being scum and him town.

The rest of his play throughout the game - dodging questions, lack of scumhunting content, making posts that just say "[redacted]" and then not following up on them (i.e., wanting to let us know he's thinking stuff but not caring enough about scumhunting to actually follow up), his flail-y switch to me at the end of yesterday after defending me, etc. make him almost guaranteed scum.

Also: The reason I keep saying "both scum in [this group]" and putting four names is because we have a maximum of four lynches left. That assumes we hit scum in the first three, otherwise the game ends a day earlier. So when I talk about "solving the game to within three mislynches by the end of today" I mean that I want to narrow the list of suspects to the point that we can definitely hit scum in the first 3 and then easily guess the last.

Other reads:

MathBlade is town - went into a lot of detail about this on day 1. I can go back and find the posts if someone wants. It was a combination of her posts about the number of scum, which I do NOT believe was faked, her reaction to realizing her mistake, and her suggestion that Riley might not have actually re-rolled between games which is not something I think would even have popped into her head unless she got the same role twice in a row. (When I got Villager again, I thought about it for a second.) Her play is also very similar to previous games.

Sloth is town. Frankly, Sloth is going to be absolutely fucked when he does finally roll scum because there's no way he'll come close to faking this level of analysis and scumhunting. Play is too similar to previous games, scumhunting is too genuine and comprehensive and analysis is noticing a lot of things I missed. I don't think anyone seriously disagrees with this but let me know if I'm wrong.

Atum is town. I put a lot of pressure on him before the reroll and ended up deciding he was probably town - my original reason for town-reading him this time is that his play is very similar to there. Reason #2: Delphine (I think?) pointed out his long post about Maiden after day end. It actually wasn't in twilight, it was after night had started. If we assume Atum is newbie scum waiting anxiously for a Maiden mislynch, it doesn't fit for him to write this long case AND I'd expect them to be celebrating in the scum QT, not making long cases at this point without apparently seeing the flip. Reason #3: The post Sloth pointed out, his reaction to Titus and ika, and the refusal to vote TerRaine looked town -- too sincere and bold to be scum in this scenario.

TerRaine is town. I've liked her analysis since Day 1 for a lot of the same reasons Sloth has mentioned. She comes across as sincere to me. Her response to Titus' tunneling didn't seem overly defensive, and the thought process she describes about responding to Titus tunneling on her was really close to mine. I also thought her line about not being sad to see Titus go was probably town: The reason saying "well fuck" in response to a night kill is a scum tell is that you're pretending to be sad because you think town would be sad. Declaring that you're not sad at all is the opposite of this.

Snowvon looked sincere Day 1. It's hard for me to pin down Snowvon because he's not an aggressive scumhunter and doesn't take very many concrete, strong positions. He doesn't do this as town, but as scum, this is a defense he can fall back on. The truth is I haven't seen him do any real scumhunting all game except his brief push on Lyrium, which he backed off on (because other people thought she was town, apparently) and a couple questions today. Interactions with Citrus are... iffy. Reaction to me defending him early is also not great - basically calling me scum for other reasons but refusing to vote me because I've been defending him.

I talked about what I didn't like about Dermon at the end of day 1, and he replaced out after that. Dermon didn't post enough to get a solid read on. He answered all my questions and had okay reasoning in response. mbond99 still hasn't posted which is weird since I know he's been on DLP and IRC. Unless Riley forgot to tell him the game is on or something, him not posting here is a bad sign.

Delphine seems town so far, based on what I know of her on IRC. The fact that she's just diving in and scumhunting is good. She probably wasn't supposed to mention the thing Titus said about pre-game chat, but it's a good sign she asked it, anyway, because scum wouldn't need to. Small mark against her: Citrus saying he thought Burkion would die looks like distancing from this slot.

So - me, Sloth, MathBlade, Atum, TerRaine town.

Monochrome probably town based on her posts so far.

Citrus probably scum.

Snowvon, mbond99 most likely partners for Citrus, or if Citrus is actually town somehow, a good chance of being buddies.

If the game was still on after lynching those, I'd probably look at Monochrome next, but I doubt it would still be on.

Vote: Citrus

I'm locking into this again. Will compromise on a Snowvon or mbond99 lynch is absolutely necessary but not on any of the players I call town above.

 

@Snow: Awww I'm hurt nothing for me Why not?

Offtopic: Subclipse lives *mwahahahahahahaha* (Coding thing...)

---------- Post automerged at 17:04 ---------- Previous post was at 17:02 ----------

@Rubicon: Ninja...I will read and respond once I send an email to a client

 

Citrus, MathBlade:

Could you both walk me through the evolution of your reads on me? Both of you were calling me town and actively defending me up through the start of yesterday. What specifically did I do that made you change those reads? Please be as clear as possible.

---------- Post automerged at 03:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:07 PM ----------

Done! You next.

 

@Sloth

Huh, well that was the copied vote count from Riley. Makes more sense you hammered because I don't remember Maiden doing it

 

First of all I'm pretty sure I did not continue to push Titus as a wolf well into twilight - in fact I specifically mentioned trusting ika's read on her. I can't copy and paste from my QT, but I made a note D2 along the lines of "she might be town just because I think she's scum and her reads make no sense". Town Titus stubbornly holds onto reads, has trouble explaining them, and refuses to compromise with people.

Secondly, the problem is I could only find two games with both Titus and ika on mafiascum.net. I didn't find any with a Titus/ika team. In both cases, they read each other correctly BUT it sometimes took a couple day phases for them to figure each other out. I looked at ika-only games and thought his play here didn't fit his scum meta.

So I didn't post a detailed meta analysis here because I didn't have enough games to make it relevant, but it's pretty easy to see that it did influence my posts at the time:
- Calling ika town by meta
- Not trying to lynch Titus even though her reads made no sense - if you look at day 1 of a game we had here called Micro Mafia #1, you can see how I react to someone tunneling me when I think they're scum.
- Finishing the day by explicitly removing her from my PoE based on ika's defense: The main reason I did this is because I was set on lynching Citrus and not ika, so I figured they'd both be around to figure each other out the next day.

ika said his read on her wasn't 100% reliable, so since he died and wasn't around to refine his read, I was planning to get in her face today and possibly lynching her. For two reasons: One, in case she's scum, and two, because she was lining up lynches on all my town reads.

As for my 19 unaligned pairs, I said at the end of day 1 that I decided most of them were too weak to be relevant. (A lot of them had to do with players who either flipped town since or who I've developed town reads on, too.)