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AYAW #4 - Rock Ridge

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by The Waco Kid, Dec 19, 2016.

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  1. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Thought process so far: Jarizok is looking good to me at the moment. I don't see him and Cobalt as w/w, especially with how Day 2 played out. My miner scum read was really a pair deal with Jarizok so that's on the backburner. Fluffy was coming around before the replacement and I've mostly liked Newcomb. So really it comes down is this a) fonti mindgames or b) tom's Hail Mary.

    ---------- Post automerged at 12:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 PM ----------

    Vote Count 1.1

    Jarizok: His Fluffiness
    Bill Door: Snowvon
    Fontisian: Miner11121
    Cobalt: Quiddity

    Abstaining: Bill Door, Cobalt, Fontisian, Jarizok, Koalas, tom

    Vote Count 1.2

    Bill Door (2): Snowvon, tom
    Jarizok (1): His Fluffiness
    Fontisian (1): Miner11121
    Cobalt (1): Jarizok
    Snowvon (1): Cobalt
    tom (1): Quiddity
    Quiddity (1): Bill Door

    Abstaining: Fontisian

    Vote Count 1.3

    Bill Door (2): Snowvon, tom
    Fontisian (1): Miner11121
    Cobalt (1): Jarizok
    Snowvon (1): Cobalt
    tom (1): Quiddity
    Quiddity (1): Bill Door

    Abstaining: Fontisian, Koalas, His Fluffiness

    Vote Count 1.4

    Bill Door (2): Snowvon, tom
    Quiddity (2): Bill Door, Fontisian,
    Fontisian (1): Miner11121
    Cobalt (1): Jarizok
    Snowvon (1): Cobalt
    tom (1): Quiddity


    Abstaining: Koalas, Newcomb

    Vote Count 1.5

    Bill Door (3): Snowvon, tom, Fontisian,
    Quiddity (3): Bill Door, Newcomb, Cobalt
    Fontisian (1): Miner11121
    Cobalt (1): Jarizok
    tom (1): Quiddity


    Abstaining: Koalas

    Vote Count 1.6: Now 100% less official!

    Bill Door (4): Snowvon, tom, Fontisian, Koalas
    Quiddity (3): Bill Door, Cobalt, Jarizok
    tom (2): Newcomb, Quiddity
    Fontisian (1): Miner11121

    Vote Count 1.7

    (4) Bill Door: Snowvon, Tom, Koalas, fontisian
    (3) Quiddity: Bill Door, Cobalt, Jarizok
    (2) Tom: Newcomb, Quiddity
    (1) fontisian: miner11121

    With 10 alive, It’s 6 to lynch.

    Vote Count 1.8

    (5) Bill Door: Snowvon, Tom, Koalas, fontisian, Quiddity
    (3) Quiddity: Bill Door, Cobalt, Jarizok
    (1) Tom: miner11121

    (1) Not voting: Newcomb

    With 10 alive, It’s 6 to lynch.

    Final Day 1 Vote Count:
    Bill Door (6): Snowvon, tom, Kalas, Fontisian, Quiddity, Newcomb
    Quiddity (3): Bill Door, Cobalt, Jarizok
    tom (1): Miner11121

    Vote Count 2.1
    Cobalt (3): Snowvon, tom, Newcomb
    tom (2): Miner11121, Cobalt
    Fontisian (1): Jarizok

    Abstaining: Fontisian, Koalas

    Vote Count 2.3
    Cobalt (3): Snowvon, tom, Jarizok
    tom (3): Miner11121, Cobalt, Newcomb,
    Jarizok (2): Fontisian, Koalas

    Abstaining:

    With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch

    Approximately 2 hours left in the Day

    Vote Count 2.4
    Cobalt (4): Snowvon, tom, Jarizok, Newcomb,
    tom (2): Miner11121, Cobalt,
    Jarizok (2): Fontisian, Koalas

    Final Vote Count:
    Cobalt (5): Snowvon, tom, Jarizok, Newcomb, Fontisian
    tom (2): Miner11121, Cobalt,
    Jarizok (1): Koalas

    Not caring for tom's positioning with respect to Cobalt.
     
  2. Miner

    Miner Unspeakable

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    I'd just like to say that if it ain't tom, I'm willing to consider fonti.

    But it has to be "not tom" first.
     
  3. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I'd like some input from Fonti and Cobalt but I'm leaning towards "just tom" at this point.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:05 PM ----------
    Jarizok any thoughts?
     
  4. Miner

    Miner Unspeakable

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    Hullo?

    /10char
     
  5. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Fonti and Newcomb. Not sure if my phone autocorrected or that was a straight brain fart. My bad.
     
  6. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    God fucking damn it Kalas I thought I had this game solved and then you ruined it

    ---------- Post automerged at 11:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:18 AM ----------

    thoughts incoming; give me like an hour or so
     
  7. Miner

    Miner Unspeakable

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    While you're writing your thoughts, what was your original "solved game"? And how did Kalas change it?
     
  8. Jarizok

    Jarizok High Inquisitor

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    I'm in a bit of a pickle making up my mind on who's the most likely to be scum. I had Fonti as most likely partner for Cobalt yesterday but that coalition got a bit less likely in my reread. I'd ruled out Tom/Cobalt before but Tom is probably my 2nd most likely scum. You round out the top 3 yourself Koalas.

    ---------- Post automerged at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:55 ----------

    Miner is town. I started doubting him yesterday but that was purely Miner/Fonti and we've already found Cobalt.
     
  9. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    :nyan:

    Hour or so.
     
  10. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    Okay, let's go through this.

    Fontisian
    Newcomb r His Fluffiness
    Jarizok
    Koalas
    Miner11121
    tom

    I'm town.

    I think Jarizok is hard-unaligned with Cobalt. The way they interacted at the beginning of the game had some nuance I'd be pretty shocked came from w/w, and the way Cobalt was pushing Jarizok didn't scream "bus" at all, it screamed "this is the mislynch I want." Independent of Cobalt, Jarizok hasn't been behaviorally town, at all. There are some tonal towntells - mostly small things, but highlighted by the way he stuck to his guns of "I'm not going to explain my reads, you guys should just try to understand them" in the face of me and fonti badgering him about it.

    I think for the most part we can just write off this slot, though I definitely will have some things to say postgame here.

    Fontisian
    Koalas
    Miner
    tom

    I don't think Miner is scum here. I think the most telling thing for me is the way he snap-voted tom D1 after I'd made my case, the way it got his hackles up when he thought it looked like tom was trying to set him up for a mislynch later, and the way he seemed genuinely disappointed that I backed off tom a few posts later. In the world where Miner's a wolf here, he knows both myself and tom are town, and playing that interaction like that is not a tack I think Miner would think of or have enough confidence to thread that needle. He also has some early interactions with Cobalt that look a little too off-the-cuff, casual, agenda-less, to be w/w. (For example - the way Miner brought up, more than once, Cobalt reminding him of MM7. That's a terrible thing to do to a partner when you don't even get the cred, because it's so casual/weak.) These are an order of magnitude weaker than the Jarizok/Cobalt interactions, but combined with Miner's overall package, I think it makes him pretty town.

    Koalas
    fonti
    tom

    1 scum in three names. After I saw Von flip, I thought I had this game cracked, because we get to be wrong once, we have a mislynch to spare.

    Yesterday I said there was a Jarizok/Cobalt dichotomy and a fonti/tom dichotomy. Killing Von there definitely reinforced that for me - usually analyzing the NK is kinda dumb. Scum make kills for a lot of reasons, there's more than one mafia who weighs in, all kinds of factors. But this is kind of a unique opportunity. One mafia alive last night, cop dead, open setup only VT left. So no medic dodge, no rolehunt, no discussing the kill with partners and compromising. That was one person, in this game, deciding that removing Von from it made their path to victory most attainable.

    This is where I'm pretty tilted at Koalas right now, because before he himself brought up these points almost word for word, I was kinda close to just clearing him off it.

    Because let's face it - killing Von is a big-boy kill there. If you're scum!Kalas and fonti, me, tom are town, killing Von there takes some serious cojones. Von wasn't having a particularly "solvey" game - though he contributed a ton to Cobalt getting lynched - and was mostly unlynchable due to people in this game being vocal about his townplay.

    In particular, in the scum!Kalas world I, remember there was that small interaction as the day wound down yesterday where fonti went, "Newcomb, I think you're clearing Kalas too easily off him agreeing with you," and I went "yeah good point."

    I find it pretty hard to believe Kalas has the balls to ignore that interaction and go for Von there.

    HOWEVER, and this is a big however - the way he rolled into the thread and basically laid down that exact train of logic pretty much blows my clear out the window. Because if the world I just described DID happen, then I'm wrong, and he /does/ understand just how good a kill Von is there.

    So, congratulations on keeping yourself in the PoE by not being more clueless, Koalas.

    Like, gun to my head, it's still one of fonti/tom but the way he's started D3 kinda annihilates the certainty I had that he woudln't make that kill.

    Something I'll do later today is go look at how the wagons developed D2, because the way Koalas kinda listlessly pushed against the Cobalt lynch - in particular that "really, this is the best we can do?" thing is probably pretty significant, and in my gut feels not w/w, but it's something I want to spend some time really looking at. Because, if we can actually clear Kalas here we can kill both fonti and tom and just win.

    Fonti - I would feel like shit if fonti were mafia here, but it absolutely has to be a thing. Her tone is fucking /great/ this game, like some of her individual posts I'm giving her a standing O if she made as mafia, but strip out all the bullshit, look at the actions. She hard townread Cobalt on tone and didn't really give in to lynching him until it would have looked pretty inevitable from her PoV as mafia there. She pushed a lot of town. Q N1, Von N2, those smell an awful lot like fonti kills. She's gotten ahead of reads in a pretty subtle way, like kind of reinforcing them especially at me, like her interactions with Jarizok. In the good world, it's because we're both town and really really on the same page. In the bad world, it's because she's hardcore pocketing me and has been since I replaced in. I'd hate the bad world but PoE is absolutely a thing.

    tom - Not gonna lie, a pretty big part of me just /wants/ tom to be mafia here.

    But I do think there's a pretty solid foundation of a case.

    His interactions with Cobalt are thin, and not great. He didn't interact with him much at all on D1, and then went out of his way to call him his "only scumread" on D2 and not really push past that.

    Tom's not incorrect to shit on Miner for trying to meta him off like, 2 or 3 games on DLP. Miner, tom is not a standard player, at all. To really "get" tom you have to get the fact that the doesn't play to solve, he plays to entertain himself. He enjoys putting on a show, which is why he's better as mafia. He takes pride in not being readable and staying in the PoE. And I say "really get him" like understanding where he's coming from makes him easier to read; it kinda doesn't. You're never going to be super accurate on someone who is actively trying to confuse you as either alignment.

    No, I think at its heart, reading tom is about the Monte Diamond.

    [​IMG]

    tom and I recently played together in the MTGS Invitational, where he did this goddamn spider gimmick. As annoying as it was, when he posted this, I soulread him town.

    See, tom was fucking around and repping a kind of "don't give a shit" attitude, but posts like that were actually trying to make his thoughts understood through the bullshit. It placed him firmly in the lower right quadrant.

    In this game, tom is clearly in the top half. He is repping that he cares about the game, that he's trying, that he's invested.

    The key question: is he really?

    This was essentially what I attacked him for late D1 when he was still fine running up Q and Bill Door - saying he's trying, but then failing to follow through with actual consideration. Straight up, I think town!tom would have re-evaluated on Q, at the very least, when I brought up the dumbtell thing. Or at least engaged and kind of considered angles or /something/, instead of blatantly doubtcasting my read and going "well I can think of a narrative where that was distancing so your unalignment sucks" and then not taking it any further.

    And then toDay. We have a scumflip. Cobalt is confirmed mafia. And tom's first big post of the day just... I mean, he talks about it a lot. The post /seems/ like it's taking Cobalt's confirmed scum status into account, but the conclusions just...don't. He's ending up exactly where he was yesterDay, which was "Cobalt is scum and everyone else is town lol". He seems unable to progress past this, even to the point of going "someone give me a case." Which makes a lot more sense in the world where tom's mafia and needs to read the pulse of the game before he decides where he wants to go, rather than town who has a shitload of new information, "analyzes" it, but then still doesn't really have any idea who he wants to lynch.

    I've felt a couple times in this game that tom was mafia, and backed off each time because of some combination of stronger leads / his tone / not wanting to punish him if he actually is town for playing in a really transparent way. But at this point, I think he's more likely mafia than not.

    Tom
    fonti
    Koalas

    In order of likelihood. If we can find one town in that group, we win.

    If we don't get it right toDay, consider sleeping in F4; that proooobably just gets you Jarizok/me dead in some order, but if those clears are valuable enough to lose a town voice in F3, it might be worth it. It's only something to consider if we get it wrong toDay, but we're at evens with no power at all left in the game, so it's definitely a legitimate option.

    I'm going to go look at some Kalas stuff in a bit, but from where I'm sitting I kind of want to kill fonti toDay, because tom never wins this game as mafia - too many people want him dead. Fonti, though, if she is the wolf here, and we mislynch tom toDay and she shoots me toNight, I'm a little worried she'll be able to talk people out of it in F3.

    So yeah. Find one town in that group of three, then in that group of two pick whomever is going to be /hardest/ to lynch, lynch them, then lynch the other the next day if needed.

    Back in a bit.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:52 PM ----------

    Fucking shit. Lower LEFT quadrant, I meant. That's embarrassing.
     
  11. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Vote: Tom

    I agree with Newcomb, and am sure he's town. His paranoia on Kalas is unfounded. Kalas kills people who scare him. Von would not be his kill. It would be Tom's, as a way of instilling chaos and paranoia.

    We're going to lynch tom today, and if I'm wrong, I imagine I'm going to be lynched tomorrow.

    I would like this to be over. Chime in, agree to this, and then lynch tom.

    Gg, let's move on.

    ---------- Post automerged at 04:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:48 PM ----------

    Vote: Tom

    I need more characters.

    Von's guy friend's inform me that his pet snake is alive and well. ;)

    There we go.
     
  12. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    ... I think this is the first time syncing with the town circle and making accurate analysis has led to a less town read of me.
     
  13. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Welcome to my world.
     
  14. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Vote: tom

    That's L-1. Fingers crossed it's game.

    ---------- Post automerged at 06:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:05 PM ----------

    World Championships here I come.
     
  15. Miner

    Miner Unspeakable

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    Fine.

    I can't read tom based on meta at all.

    Still have a gut feeling that he's scum. Although, I will say that this is the most unsure I've been about voting tom since d1.

    Lynch order for me will probably be tom--->fonti.

    Don't want to think about wolf!Newcomb worlds.

    ---------- Post automerged at 05:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:10 PM ----------

    We're at L-1?

    I'm pretty sure the "lynch whoever hammers if tom is town" thing still applies here.
     
  16. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    Consider it a compliment?

    Like, shooting Von screams "good player is scum"; if I didn't think you were a good player, I'd write you off.

    Pretty tempted to quickhammer tbh.

    And Miner, I'm not saying you can't meta tom. I happen to think metareads are a really good thing, if used judiciously and properly. But tom plays on a lot of sites, has a pretty wide range of play, and forming a conception of what he tends to do as either alignment based completely on DLP games is going to lead you to a lot of false positives AND negatives, IMO.
     
  17. tom

    tom First Year

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    Sigh.
    Actually tried to clear my slot but screwed by my own meta.

    I'm town.
    GL

    ---------- Post automerged at 15:22 ---------- Previous post was at 15:19 ----------

    Is this AtE?
    I don't really know.
    Not really my department.
    It's not meant to be.
    Or maybe it is.
    It's kind of bullshit to be read as scum for being townie and dunking a wolf.

    ---------- Post automerged at 15:24 ---------- Previous post was at 15:22 ----------

    I would say that newcomb's chart is actually pretty good.
    I am caring about this game a lot. And not trying to hide it.
    top left baby. thats where im at.
     
  18. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    tom. If you flip town, I'm going to lynch fonti tomorrow. Does that win the game?

    If the answer is "no" then give me like... something to go on.
     
  19. tom

    tom First Year

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    Why would von be my kill?
    He and you were my top defenders.
    Pretty sure I would have taken out newcomb.
    Chaos and paranoia is one thing, but not getting lynched is another.

    ---------- Post automerged at 15:32 ---------- Previous post was at 15:29 ----------

    No I don't think it does.
    Pretend you're in a world where I've already flipped town.
    Why the fuck does fonti defend me when she did?
    Especially with the then flip flop into wanting to lynch me.
    It probably would have happened without her tbh, so shes just losing credit for no reason.
    And if I don't die, I'm openly ready to lose to her in final 3.

    So I actually think the defense yesterday made her towny, and the scumread today moreso.
    Because she's right that she is probably next.

    ---------- Post automerged at 15:33 ---------- Previous post was at 15:32 ----------

    newcomb>koalas>>>>>>>miner>>>jari>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>fonti
     
  20. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    Well fuck tom I'm not going to scumread myself.

    Like in the world where you're town, I'm town, fonti's town ..... go.

    It /might/ be Kalas? Miner, maaaaybe, if you give him a TON of credit? Jarizok, just... I really can't see that one, ever.

    Miner or Kalas? Why?

    Like I need you to go through the game and explain it to me because if this is the world we live in at this point I really am not seeing it.

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:37 PM ----------

    tom

    In the world where fonti's town and you're town, how does this strike you? Like... fonti's just giving up? The day after a scumfilp? When we've kind of turned the game around?
     
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