I had very little to go on, because he posted like 5 times total.

 

So if I survive and get a gold, pick someone for me to audit.

 

@Mathblade, yes you are actually but we get more by letting the chips fall where they may. I'm not voting Moridin. I'm voting you or Riley, long shot Maiden.

Suppose 2 Scum and SK outside Zennith, Citrus, Titus, Luckylee. With 11 alive, that means 3/7th odds of any particular hit being scum, or alternatively 4/7 odds to hit town.

Assuming two shots with no information, and random chance of hitting any particular player outside. Then... 4/7 * 4/7 = 16/49 chance of both hitting town.

3/7 * 3/7 of both hitting anti-town or 9/49.

We aren't shooting at random though.

---------- Post automerged at 07:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:48 PM ----------

Because I can't trust anyone defending town.

Fucking vote Mathblade or Moridin. No one else is getting lynched this close to deadline.

 

Not in scum likelihood order
In order of pref: Custer
Iridium
Lucky Lee
Moridin
blab
Titus
Sloth
Maiden
Zennith

 

Audit Citrus, provided if he lives.

 

<b>Vote Mathblade</b>

Not voting against the townblock.

---------- Post automerged at 09:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:51 PM ----------

Vote Mathblade

 

Err, what's townblock?

 

Citrus+Zennith+Citrus

---------- Post automerged at 09:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:52 PM ----------

+Titus

derp

 

Okay, there's like 5 minutes left. Should I just vote Mathblade? Or is there anything else left to say?

 

Is a hammer going to happen or what?

 

we get twilight, Moridin

 

OMG! Your math is wrong! First you are assuming no one hangs.

Second assuming that it is 4/7 and then as both # of town and remaining players is one less 3/6. Again also assuming conf where none is, which is still 57% one town dies with shots and then 28% two townies die assuming first was town. Assuming the first shot is scum and HT town and I am not hung, the odds are 4/6 which is 66% town dies.

So probably 3 kills more than any scum death.

 

Fair enough. In that case, I'm voting.

Vote Lynch: Mathblade

 

I did the math, regardless of your flip to be objective. If you flip scum, the odds go up Lucky shoots town.

If you flip town, the odds are even better Lucky hits scum. There is no reason for lucky not to shoot two people IMO.

 

Take it back please I was correcting math! please don't let it be my downfall

 

Vote Count 2.9
(6 to lynch)

MathBlade (6): Titus, Titus, Citrus, Zennith, blab, Moridin
Moridin (4): Irdiumstern, Sloth, MathBlade, Maiden
Titus (1): Riley Poole

Abstain (1) Luckylee

MathBlade has been lynched. It is now Twilight. You may continue to post until I announce the lynch scene.

 

I'm sorry, but was that a slip? What do you mean that you can't trust anyone defending town?

 

...fantastic. No one's called him on it, so he's either...
1) not lying and is Town.
2) lying and scummate was the one that actually took the BP, and is not one of the targets.

...4 minutes, guys. Time to go to L-1.

Lee, we're giving you 2 Targets. The town message is clear: SHOOT TWICE.

IF MATHBLADE IS TOWN, SHOOT RILEY AND MORIDIN.

IF MATHBLADE IS SCUM, SHOOT RILEY AND IRDIUM.

 

Poor Riley.

 

My vote Mirrors Sloth but for IRDIUM USE MAIDEN INSTEAD.