From OotP

'It was you? gasped Harry. 'You sent the Dementors after me?'

'Somebody had to act,' breathed Umbridge, as her wand came to rest pointing directly at Harrys forehead. They were all bleating about silencing you somehow - discrediting you - but I was the one who actually did something about it… only you wriggled out of that one, didn't you, Potter? Not today though, not now -' And taking a deep breath, she cried, 'Cruc—”

Did Umbridge intend to kill Harry with the dementors, and did she know he could conjure a Patronus to save himself if needed?

 

She wanted him out of the way and no longer a thorn in Fudge's side, and I don't think she was too fussed on how that happened.

 

I never came to a real clear conclusion on that. I always felt like she was too much of a small-minded loser/follower to take such a deliberate action like intentionally murdering HP.

But even if she didn’t intend to, it’s not like that’s forgivable. It’s just a different degree of murder.

 

Yes.

This is a woman who had no trouble torturing children day in and day out for a year, throwing innocent people into Azkaban, and using an Unforgivable on a pair of 15 years old.

She was hoping that the Ministry would show up and find at least one soulless husk, and if a couple of muggles got de-souled so much the better because, on top of being a deranged lunatic, she was also a magical Nazi.

 

The framing is interesting. She specifically mentions the aim of "discrediting" Harry when saying she did something about it, implying the goal all along was to get him expelled for defending himself. But I don't see how she could reasonably have known that Harry was capable of using the Patronus charm, in which case she can't have planned for him to use underage magic. And even if she know he could use a Patronus, getting Harry expelled would be dicey considering underage wizards are allowed to use magic in self-defense.

So on the one hand, I feel like the dialogue is meant to imply Umbridge just wanted Harry expelled. Otherwise it would make her bullying of Harry during the school year feel like an extreme de-escalation in hindsight. But getting him Kissed would be a sounder plan by far.

 

It feels similar to a kid that pushes another down the stairs as a "funny prank", not thinking how dangerous it actually is. Like, Umbridge wants to do something, anything, to Harry, and the first untraceable and deniable solution she comes up with is dementors. If it's overkill is not something she considers, and given that Harry isn't actually kissed by them, she feels her actions were perfectly reasonable, if a bit on the tame side given Harry manages to get away with everything.

My headcanon AU for if the dementors kissed Harry is that Umbridge would be somewhat horrified at what happened, but would justify it as "bad luck" and "incompetence" of Harry, not taking responsibility.