Just a little reminder. There is an extra 12 hours to compensate for the mistake.

12 hours and 14 minutes remain. When the timer reaches 0 it will count upwards. When it hits 12 hours past the deadline night descends. Hard Lynch will result in early Day end.

 

Thanks Riley.

LEXI! GET IN HERE RIGHT MEOW!

 

The Lexicat is exhausted, but thinks that the day 1 wagon did not have 0 scum on it, and knows she is not scum.

I very much am against any power role directing, but I don't know if Kalas feels scummy to me outside of the VCA. Hmmmmm.

---------- Post automerged at 12:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:21 PM ----------

Eh, honestly, I'm too tired to think. I'm reasonably sure that Kalas should be scum by PoE, but Lyrium's play yesterday plus weird stuff on the last page makes me ok with lynching her today. Still don't like titus' play even if she's pretty clearly town now, and Aekiel is town.

Hmmm... I wonder what would happen if we NL'd today.

 

No PR direction literally means you'd be making every call =p

No lynch would mean Aekiel or Citrus targeted depending on roles and alignments. Which is the same results as in a lynched Lyrium world.

 

Riiiiiiiiiiiiight but it also means we don't lose if there are 2 scum?

---------- Post automerged at 05:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:32 PM ----------

and no PR direction only means the town doesn't tell the power roles how to use their abilities. It's like telling a vig who to shoot. You don't do it.

 

We lose via my plan is Titus is scum yes. You'll note that's what I asked about.

---------- Post automerged at 06:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:08 PM ----------

Oh. I can agree with that normally, but in endgame when we can easily keep three town alive?

 

Yeah except we also lose if you're scum which, coincidentally is a fucking possible outcome.

---------- Post automerged at 05:55 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:54 PM ----------

Dude, this is why I hate non-role reveal games. They are inherently bastard.

 

Its really not.

I'd like to hear your plan though. We don't lynch Lyrium. What do we do tonight/ tomorrow that gives us the biggest chance of winning?

 

I get to actually read the game and the claims and determine if any of them can be reasonably faked by scum given their knowledge. Sorry, I don't trust your plan. I mean, let's be real, Titus, Aekiel, You and Citrus are all claimed power roles? I mean it was pretty obvious that BillDoor was a power role, and none of you have claimed that role, so, we're saying that in 3 night shots (Zenzao, Zeitgeist, LuckyLee) the scum hit... 3 VTs? And only hit a town powerrole with their bonus kill because Bill would have been confirmed town and dangerous later?

I mean... those are some reaaaallly interesting odds. Not that mafia should ever be a game of numbers, but it seems highly unlikely that a team of players who should be HUNTING TO KILL these power roles would miss 3 straight times.

 

Well no. We have a pretty clear split of 1 scum between Lyrium and Citrus. Does working from that make you feel better?

 

Explain why that must be.

 

Citrus has said Lyrium is scum. Aekiel has confirmed that he was not a factor.

Town-Town is impossible.
Scum-Scum is very unlikely. Without flips busing a teammate is hardly townfirming and at this stage of the game is almost sabotaging your wincon.

Ergo Scum-Town.

---------- Post automerged at 07:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:43 PM ----------

Reads at the moment: Citrus can be with Lexi or Titus, with Lexi >>> Titus. Lyrium with Lexi or Titus, with Lexi > Titus.

 

Alright, so let's examine some scenarios.

Primarily, let's do the occam's razor first. Lyrium is scum, likely the scum vig who already used their shot, and was caught by Citrus. Very simple, but also very very likely to have a partner. Which, given I know it's not me, means that one of the 4 claimed power roles must be lying.

Secondly, Cirtus is scum and is lying about the cop. He would only make this guilty play if it would win him the game THIS ROUND, which means he likely has a partner. But to have another claimed PR be scum would be HUGELY risky for the scum, unless it was Kalas, who was the last person to claim (Lyrium claimed VT day one, so he would have known all the roles at the point when he claimed and been safe to do so.) So that's THAT theory.

Finally, Citrus is making the gambit play where he's not the cop, and he's lying about being the cop, BUT, he's busing his scumbuddy. With the protective powerroles still alive, it wouldn't be surprising to see Citrus live to the next day after lynching his partner, which would still leave us in a MYLO situation, except it would be a much safer MyLo for him because he would be practically untouchable. While this is a... flashy and unlikely play, it's certainly a POSSIBLE ONE.

So, beyond that, here are the facts:

Aekiel is probably town beyond a doubt from how his claim went down.
Titus claiming before anyone other power roles today and crumbing in one of her earlier posts makes her town, along with her stubborn play. Pisses me off, but she's town.
I know I'M town.

So here are our outcomes

Lyrium (alone): Unlikely, given the lynches, but if Sloth was somehow scum, it could make sense to have an all town wagon on him. especially in a no reveal game.
Lyrium/Citrus: If Citrus is an evil mastermind and playing a hell of a game.
Kalas/Citrus: If Citrus and Kalas are trying to end the game today.
Kalas/Lyrium ?????????? This doesn't feel right. The connections between the two aren't there, for sure.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

---------- Post automerged at 07:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:30 PM ----------

And if we no lynch.... hmmm I feel like Aekiel or Titus is likely to die, but with all the protections and shit floating around (and the chance that Kalas could be town and protect the kill) the scum would likely NK and force the MyLo lynch anyway.

so it's a question of time. Do we feel confident as a town in a decision this day or would another day help us?

cause now that Citrus has a cop guilty, he will never get another guilty. he will always draw innocents since at least one of the godfather/lawyer is still alive and can keep themselves investigation immune.

So it's not like we benefit from any new role information... Just extra time to talk.

---------- Post automerged at 07:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:34 PM ----------

We have a little under 8 hours now, btw.

 

So optimum play here would be to lynch Citrus. Protection circle myself Titus and Aekiel tonight. Lynch Lyrium the following Day. The following night I protect Aekiel who forces shit away from me. Invincible two man block in a situation where there would only be one scum left. GG?

 

you realize if you're scum you win that, lol.

 

That wouldn't work. If we mislynch today and follow the protection plan, we lose.

We're at 6 players now. 4 town, 2 scum (assuming worst case scenario). If we mislynch today that brings us down to 3/2. If we then tie up our protection in the three way save, we're basically telling scum that they can target any of the other players and bring it down to 2/2. Scum win all ties, so we lose.

So, I say we abandon the protection plan. All our protection roles should choose the person they think is most likely to be targeted. That way we stand a better chance of protecting someone if we mislynch today.

Or we could go for the 50/50 approach. Kalas tells us who he is going to protect while I don't. That way I can make make the recipient of my ability the one who Kalas is protecting, thus ensuring that if I choose the right person to protect, nobody dies and I don't accidentally lose the game for us. If we go this route, I'd suggest protecting Titus.

That said, I still put Lyrium as scummier than Citrus, but I'm open to other arguments if anyone can convince me otherwise.

 

OK. Under the assumption that myself, Titus and Aekiel are town and we are at 4:2.

We lynch Town!Citrus/Lyrium. That puts us at 3:2. We protect properly. Still at 3:2 after scum NK. We lynch Scum!Citrus/Lyrium. We're at 3:1. We win.

If you think I'm scum then yes we can try a play with lower odds. But if you believe we are all town we win.

---------- Post automerged at 09:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:54 PM ----------

Also Aekiel, given your ability scum don't necessarily win a tie. Just a thought.

---------- Post automerged at 09:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:02 PM ----------

@Lexi: Out of curiosity where do you stand on this statement?

 

My extra life means nothing if we're at 2/2 for votes. I can't self-target, so all they'd have to do is tie a lynch, NK me, tie another lynch, then NK me again and win the game.

---------- Post automerged at 12:42 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:31 AM ----------

Players

Aekiel
Titus
Kalas
Lexicat
Citrus
Lyrium

This is essentially how I'm seeing the game right now. I consider Titus to be 95% town due to his claim and Kalas to be likely town. Nothing he's done during the previous days has led me to suspect him of being anything less.

Lexicat I'm unsure of since I had major doubts about Dermon and I find the attempt at leading the town through aggression to be rather distracting. I know this is standard Lexicat play, but I can't decide whether in this case it's designed to be pro-town or a simple show of force, since our usual town leaders are dead now.

Citrus is on equal footing with Lexicat. Where Lexi is arguing numbers and claiming that town couldn't have all these power roles still alive, I'm seeing a scum team focused more on taking out the good players and hoping to hit power roles as a bonus. Citrus' claim is believable but without hard evidence to back it up.

I can quite easily see a world in which Lyrium is scum, especially with the way she's essentially trolled the entire day away. I suspect she kinda gave up after Citrus' roleclaim and scum verdict, which practically screams scum at me. That combined with the suspicions I and others have had over the course of the last few days has led me to believe that she's scum. I'd give it a probability of 80% that she's scum and just waiting to die.

So yeah, I'm in favour of a Lyrium lynch.

---------- Post automerged at 12:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:42 AM ----------

EBWOP: Naturally if Lyrium turns out to be scum, Citrus takes a boost up to green territory and Kalas takes a bump down to yellow. I'm more inclined to believe Kalas' claim given the animosity that was displayed between him and Lyrium on day two. I'll give it a more thorough look tomorrow, but as of right now, I consider Lexicat to be a more plausible scummate for Lyrium than Kalas.

---------- Post automerged at 12:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:47 AM ----------

This assuming that Zennith and Zircon weren't both scum, in which case Lyrium's hilariously heavy handed attempt at bussing Zircon yesterday and her seeming lack of concern for the game now suggests we're not at MYLO and that we are in fact down to 1 scum.

Something to keep in mind there, given that we've all been assuming there are two scum left.

 

Since we're agreed...

[vote]Lyrium[/vote]

To ensure the lynches aren't tied. I'm basically going to sheep Aekiel here, although I do have reservations about Citrus.

---------- Post automerged at 05:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:02 PM ----------

Vote: Lyrium

Ugh

 

We're at soft lynch now, so nobody else vote.