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Dresden Casefiles #2

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Riley, Feb 7, 2014.

  1. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Since we're not looking to be doing anything at the moment...

    Kalas & Citrus: Explain to me who you think the respective scum teams are and summarise why you think that. Point to previous explanations if you need to.
     
  2. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    I like Citrus as scum due to this play making sense. Scum Citrus cannot kill here. Smart Kalas cannot kill either. This supposes obvious night actions. Which one would shoot Aekiel rather than me?

    Answer: The one that needs an extra body. Smart Kalas scum would shoot me during the cop check claims. It removes a body, and if there's an innocent result, he gets a mislynch due to my plan yesterday. That would leave him with Aekiel/Citrus/him. A much better position.

    Scum Citrus could not make that kill, or he must be certain that he can argue red king wifom. Why would town Citrus a) check Kalas and B) be so willing to entertain red king after Kalas was his target? Scum Citrus, if he killed me, would be left with Aekiel/Kalas/me. That is advantageous. Yet, Scum Citrus would know that Kalas would heal me, seeing that same scenario. So Citrus goes for Aekiel instead.

    Then look at the VCs. Zennith is the only obvscum. Citrus and Zennith combine fo his hammer. It looks like Citrus really wanted a different lynch there. Citrus and Zennith were tied at the hip at the end of trains as long as Z was alive. Odd.


    Vote: Citrus

    I will be around if I need to change it, but Citrus should be the lynch.

    ---------- Post automerged at 07:17 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:16 AM ----------

    Hey Kalas, you kinda need to officially vote Citrus!
     
  3. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    You're missing a very important point here.

    Kalas has professed to being Elaine. I'm the Merlin. If Citrus is scum, that means our defensive circle (him protecting me, me protecting you) was preventing Citrus from killing anyone. If he tried killing you, he'd have hit himself. If he tried killing me, Kalas' protection would have blocked it. If he tried killing Kalas, he'd have outed himself as scum.

    If Kalas is scum, he can't kill you because I'm protecting you. He couldn't kill me because that would make his Elaine claim an obvious fake. He couldn't kill Citrus because you and I are confirmed town.

    This is the entire reason we've been having no kills for the past day and it's the reason I think Kalas is more likely to be scum, because a Citrus/Lexicat scumteam could have quite easily won the game the night after Lyrium's death.
     
  4. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    Aekiel, I think Lexicat was town. Scum Citrus with Lexicat would have started red king discussions on Kalas beforehand and tried to hit him. Bussing Lexicat gains scum Citrus nothing.

    Also, if your circle is true, then Kalas wouldn't shoot. Bleh. We got a shot which means...There was the assumption you would protect Kalas. Kalas healed me. That's the way to play that when I acted as your guard.
     
  5. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

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    Scumteam:

    1) Zennith - Fence-sitting/Uncommittal, forced to false-claim, self-hammered

    2) Lyrium - Fence-sat, guiltied and gave up

    3) Kalas - PoE, false-claimed Doctor after other PR slots were taken and used the WIFOM, became much more active in the last few days & tried to direct night actions

    @Titus
    God, you're being so thick. Reason the entire thing out if you're going to still say I'm scum. Zennith was scum #1, so who was second?

    1) Lexicat - You literally gave me the chance for autowin when you posted before I gave my report as "Lynch Citrus's guilty or lynch the other player." Here all I had to do was inno Lexicat and GG SCUM WINS.

    2) Lyrium - So now I'm hardcore bussing on a fake claim when everyone hadn't even claimed yet? That's literally one of the stupidest things scum could possibly do, considering scum need a few mislynches to win and hardcore bussing means a correct lynch + PoE problems later on PLUS we already had Merlin+Morgan claims. All I needed to do was claim Vanilla/guilty someone else and push the mislynches/watch my interactions with Lyrium and possibly coast to a win.

    And bear in mind I left hints about the fact that I were cop. Ex: why the fuck would I encourage cop checking me the night before, when I also state I always disagree with publicly directing PRs? Because I AM the cop (can't check myself so it's not actually directing PRs) and would love a cc because it means obvious scum out in the open.

    Now why don't we try to reason this shit out with Kalas as scum. Here, I'll even do the work for you.

    Day 4 claims:
    Aekiel Merlin, Titus Morgan, Citrus Dresden, Kalas Elaine, Lexicat Vanilla, Lyrium Vanilla

    Going into the night:
    1. Titus
    2. Lexicat (Dermon)
    3. Citrus
    4. Aekiel
    5. Kalas

    Kalas has proposed that Aekiel redirect Kalas and he heals Titus. He has 4 choices for his kill after ensuring
    1) Aekiel doesn't redirect anyone else and
    2) He has an alibi for why he survived the night


    Notice how it was important to him that he had a reason why he survived? Earlier in the game he agreed with me that the idea that town should work for the faction to survive rather than individual survival like scum. Vs. here where he's acting from a scum perspective.

    Kill choices:
    1) Titus:
    This brings the game to MYLO with Aekiel, Lexicat, me, and Kalas. Everyone would question where Titus's protection was. Determined that Kalas suggested Aekiel protect him and Kalas is lynched. GG TOWN WINS

    2) Lexicat -
    This brings the game to MYLO with Titus, Citrus, Aekiel, Kalas. Aekiel has his vest. Kalas is lynched GG TOWN WINS. or I am lynched, Aekiel redirects off Titus. Aekiel can't die due to vest, Titus is redirected onto Kalas. Kalas kills himself or is lynched next day. GG TOWN WINS

    3) Citrus -
    Same situation as with Lexicat kill but swap our names. Kalas is lynched or Lexicat is lynched and Kalas is put into autoloss. GG TOWN WINS

    4) Aekiel -
    Aek loses his vest and him and Titus are modconfirmed. 1 of Lexicat/Kalas/Citrus is lynched, go into night and he has to no-kill (or else noone buys the doc claim), and we're exactly where we are now.

    Guess which door Kalas picked? Door number 4, shooting Aekiel! Guess why? Because by claiming doc he increased the chances of him surviving to final MYLO/LYLO over vanilla claiming Lexicat and he didn't have a choice anymore.

    Summary: Kalas got boned with the Lyrium guilty into a situation where there had to be 2 mislynches for him to win. If he acted otherwise he would have put himself into virtual/actual autoloss. But by claiming doc he gave himself a good chance to survive to final MYLO, considering he knew he was the Red King and would get inno'ed
     
  6. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    So yeah, it's all down to you, Titus.

    I'm more certain that Kalas is scum than Citrus at this point, so I'm keeping my vote where it is. If you prefer the rocks fall, everyone dies approach feel free to go with that. I'd prefer that we won or lost on a final bet though. My bet is on scum!Kalas.
     
  7. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Either scum scenario leads to a no shot last night yes. (Another point I consider against Lexi is she did not mention this scenario at all) However you are basing your scum read on a completely erroneous assumption.

    After the Lyrium Lynch we had 5 players remaining: You, Titus, Myself, Lexi and Citrus. You and Titus were 99% town but not mechanically confirmed yet.

    I proposed a protection plan, you protect me, I protect Titus and you have the extra life. That means three unkillable town vs two scum in a game where the Duchess kill has already been used. Leaving us several scenarios.

    1) No kill. Maintain the status quo. We still lynch Lexi. Net loss for scum as Aekiel still has extra life.

    2) They target me, thinking you were bluffing about protecting me. They either kill one of themselves, soft townfirming me or they were right and kill me. They likely lose or win the 2v2.

    3) They target Titus, thinking I changed my protection target. They either townfirm me and lose or guess right. If they guess right I'd likely be lynched and they win or we'd continue protecting each other and game ties.

    4) They target you to eliminate the extra life, breaking the effectiveness of the circle. Chance of townfirming me but more likely setting themselves up for a later win.

    In none of these scenarios can Lexi/Citrus 'easily' win. That 4) was the only viable option was the entire point of the protection circle. To win one of us would have to not follow it and scum would have to correctly guess who didn't.

    In an only Citrus scum world the scenarios remain the same (Lexi would a possible NK target but that would be the an auto loss). If I missed something please tell me, otherwise you need to reexamine your scumreads.

    ---



    Alternate: Hit Titus. Say I protected Aekiel to try and double scum and townfirm myself. Talk and win.

    Better Alternative: As I claimed after you CC your Dresden. Nothing changes except my chances of winning shoot skyward. Win.

    ---

    Zennith is a must. This is obvious. Citrus is also a must.

    That leaves one other between Lexicat and Lyrium.

    Lyrium is a definite scum possibility. Her play was horrible. And ending the Day as she did sealed the deal. To quote Lexi:

    Citrus literally had nothing to lose by scum checking her (well a scum check on me but w/e). Lyrium's post after that are consistent with an imploding scum or, possibly, out of their depth town that realize how fucked they are.

    Lexi on the hand.. Lexi loves Mafia. And loves to win. She is never going to play to lose, or deliberately let her play result in a loss. So my scum read is based on what she didn't do.

    Lexi might let herself die to win the game. But if she did, she would make damn sure that you knew exactly what things meant and exactly what you had to do to win. Instead no guidance on the (obvious) No Kill and no consideration of Citrus!scum under any realistic scenarios. Just a finger pointed at me.

    Thus my scum team is Citrus/Lexi/Zennith.

    Vote: Citrus

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:11 PM ----------

    Just for you Citrus. Italics are quotes from you word for word.

    Scum obviously thought LL was worth killing and.. Hey look, you've got your scum pushing the mislynch!

    A little late to the party but, a pretty safe position for bussing as 5th vote.


    For those of you just checking in, Lyrium hard-hammered our day early - and when we have soft-lynch too! Also jumping on that easy mislynch wagon pretty early on. (Dat two post difference.)
    You figured out Guilty check = First vote. Congrats on that.

    Hey look, you completely sat out a lynch then pointed the finger at the one non-confirmed Town on the wagon.

    (Lyrium has been left as yellow. Mostly to show the complete non-effect it has on scum!Citrus)

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:27 PM ----------

    Are you dense? If I died that was 2v2 for your win. Doing what we did was literally to prevent game lose. If you can think of a more pro town survival thing to do then please tell me.

    Aekiel... Just read the thread. Read the last 100 posts even. Can you please just see how Citrus is twisting everything to push scum!Kalas? Can you please just see the flaws in what he's posting.
     
  8. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    Why can't it be Sloth/Zennith/Citrus?

    ---------- Post automerged at 11:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:01 AM ----------

    I say that bc we would expect a hell of a lot more scum on a Sloth mislynch.

    I will review again when I get back but I like that scum team.

    ---------- Post automerged at 11:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:32 AM ----------

    There are little nagging indicators of me being wrong, but Lexi did that too. For instance, insisting I claim first when I had logical reasons not to and expecting more.
     
  9. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    God damn paranoia. I can't decide which one is telling the truth here.

    It all comes back to Lyrium. She trolled away most of a day after Citrus' guilty verdict, which doesn't say anything good about her alignment. If Citrus was actually scum, why would she bus a scummate at that stage?

    There is the possibility that I'm wrong about Lyrium, but she seems as much an obvious scum as Zennith was.

    No, I'm not moving my vote. I don't think Lexicat is scum any more, having gone back through the last few pages, and she lined out pretty accurately why Citrus can't be fake claiming. A guilty check at that stage doesn't make sense since it tied up Citrus' fakeclaim for the end game.

    So yeah, I'm sticking with scum!Kalas.
     
  10. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    So, to get in your headspace here, Lyrium is obviously scum, Lexi promised she'd get lynched the next Day and you can't see the value in being the one to lead the wagon/softfirm your claim?

    I'll admit it wasn't the optimal play imo, but not being able to see ^ that? Come on Aekiel. This is mafia basics.
     
  11. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    I don't see myself moving from Citrus either. His reaction to my suspicions early game is just too damn awkward. Oh my god. Stop tunnlling hen I barely suspected him. Wholly inappropriate. A cop wouldn't mind as it keeps them around until the endgame.
     
  12. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    And in the scum!Kalas world my Doctor claim didn't? I can't wrap my headspace around this. Citrus' claim lands us in this situation so he can't be scum. My claim lands us in this situation so I must be scum?
     
  13. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Fuck it.

    Vote: Citrus

    I keep flip-flopping between the two and I'm no closer to actually working out who is scum than not. So let's end this and put me out of my misery.
     
  14. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Also Aekiel, lets pretend Lexi was town. Lyrium was 99% getting lynched regardless of what she did. Citrus is therefore scum with Lyrium..


    If you're going to trust Lexi at least give equal thought to everything she posted.

    ---------- Post automerged at 05:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:16 PM ----------

    YES! TOWN WIN GGGGGGGG
     
  15. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    You might want to vote first.
     
  16. Riley

    Riley Alchemist DLP Supporter

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    PLEASE HALT ALL POSTING
     
  17. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    But yeah, I should learn to stick with my first instincts. I said a couple of days ago that your play hadn't rang any scumbells with me.
     
  18. Riley

    Riley Alchemist DLP Supporter

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    "Holy shit. Holy shit.

    You guys did it. You actually managed to do it. You managed to destroy the Red Court in one final moment. Down to the wire, only four hours left and the whole world watching and you;ve done the one thing Dresden never was able to do. You took down the Red court.

    No wonder they call you The Merlin, Mr. Aekiel. You're decision literally saved the world.

    The Game is Over. Town has Won, but at what costs?"

    Final Decsioning: The Game is too brutal, too violent, too wanton in it's destruction of life. The White council may have emerged victorious, but the death toll is too high to consider this a viable timeline.

    A light descends from the ceiling. Out of the beam steps a man in a business suit that's bursting at the seams. He has long grey hair, a long grey beard and an eyepatch.

    "Odin, I'm sorry, I thought they'd fair better, I can't do anything here. They won, but at what cost?" The man nodds.

    His bass voice rings out, "We will fix this in time, but for now, let's shut down the feed and reset the time frame. Bring them back to life if you could and we'll figure out how to do this right."

    A shuffling of paper and the Lights brighten to show a long strip of windows high up on the wall, filled with Red Court Vampires banging at the glass.

    "We obviously didn't achieve the main goal here, let's move on and try something else." The lights darken again and the dead members of the Town begin to raise up, their movements are too coordinated for zombies though.

    "Hello, men and women of the Town faction. You have won, but we have deemed the results unsatisfactory, your memories will be wiped and you will be returned from whence you came. Thank you for playing."

    The Warehouse is filled with light and soon all that's left are the three dead bodies of the Red Court Vampire. They slowly burn away into ash and dust.

    ______________________________________________________________

    Final results


    Town WINS!



    http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/bJ2bgysRdvL The Obs Thread.

    Vanilla Human:
    Abigail QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/uECX4P6jSTNRM
    Stallings QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/MFs4TttRCuUnt
    Georgia QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/N3D3sR86GN4M
    Butters QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/dkRxQHDD4BSVv
    Charity QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/rF85zR3N2VGU

    Wizards:
    Merlin QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/ZBMb4d2EgkdNG
    Ebenezar QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/5wKyqpmpRnWA
    Morgan QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/PEy6pPCEeJUF
    Dresden QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/Ewwwahx6UAga
    Elaine QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/cKPhTTyb4pqy

    Red Court QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/JeKx9qq2u6Z


    I want to applaud Citrus for almost forcing a No-Lynch/No-Kill scenario, that was really one in a million which was due more to player personalities than mechanics.

    That said I want to hear what you guys think. I'll post a more in-depth analysis probably sometime next week as this weekend I've made plans to get shit faced in celebration of a (Mostly) successful completion of this Mafia.

    Let me know what you did and didn't like about it and what not. MVP will also come with the Analytical Post.

    NOW EVERYONE GO WATCH LEXI'S SURVIVOR AND CHEER ON YOUR FAVORITES!
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2014
  19. Zennith

    Zennith Pebble Wrestler ~ Prestige ~

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    Boooo. I played like shit.
     
  20. Sloth

    Sloth Professor DLP Supporter

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    Hungry for apples?
    Played better than me, though not sure that's saying much.

    Too bad, though, Citrus. I was rooting for you lot by the end. XD
     
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