Hey Rubicon. Can you, like, take a stance on something? I'm worried you're going to bisect yourself because you've been perched on that fence for so long.

What makes Blab look like scum to you this game?

Where are all the players sitting right now read-wise?

Why have you not really engaged anyone? It feels like not only are you sitting on a fence, but it's out on the sidelines of the field, and I can barely see you out there.

 

What Vira said.

General rule, the best way to convince people you're town is to find scum and convince people to lynch them. And the best way to handle pressure is to ignore it.

---------- Post automerged at 07:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:54 PM ----------

I'm not fence-sitting.

He hasn't been scumhunting at the level he usually does (barely at all). He also totally ignored that I've been calling him scum for the last ten pages but haven't even voted him. Who ignores something like that?

He also buddied me in his first post. blab. blab buddied me. Me.

That should tell you everything you need to know.

Something like:

Me
Snowvon
weiyaoli
Zenzao / Vira / Seratin
Everyone else who's active
Newcomb
Everyone else who's not active
blab

---------- Post automerged at 07:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:10 PM ----------

See what I did there? That's how you handle pressure. I should teach classes on this shit.

 

Why town!Seratin?

 

Why are Zenzao, Vira, and Seratin in the same block?
Where's the break at for you in strong townreads vs weak townreads?

Why does your scum-read on Blab feel more like you felt like you needed to do something than you think you found a scum and are pushing a lynch down his/her throat? You have conviction in a scum-read on Blab in #182 that I didn't feel in your posts prior to it.

Why haven't you placed your vote actually?

 

Okay so this has gone on long enough.

Yeah I can see how this doesn't come across as town but I was genuinely just excited to be back in a game of Mafia and throwing shit out there. I don't understand how it helps scum at all since any mafia player worth their salt would have considered it from their posts and either scrapped the idea or ran with it.

That's kind of being dickish. Anyone that hasn't played with you two before is in the same position. What, did you expect me to go gung ho all game with my very first half read and never change my mind? Of course I'm going to change my mind through the course of the game, that doesn't make me wolfy, it makes me a member of town with enough humility to accept that I haven't figured the game out by the first twenty posts. -__-

Yes actually, they have. Specifically yours. I don't understand how it could have made it easier for wolves to PR hunt, maybe you could enlighten me? How would me theorizing that have any bearing on actual scum's decisions? If they agreed that those roles may have been possible for you guys then it wouldn't take me asking that question for them to get there as yourself and Citrus were acting like bulls in a china shop through the thread at that point. Nice and easy to spin it around on me though, I left that shot wide open and it's not a mistake I'm chalking that one down to experience.

That was a really wolfy move there. At least quote the post and let people think what they think for themselves and not depend what you want them to think of it. I don't understand how it's nonsensical at all. Citrus was under a lot of scrutiny at that point and it's very possible he tried to shine the light away from himself. How exactly do you think that's nonsensical?

Yes, I went for it, I gave my opinions openly and honestly. Since when is that a bad thing? You say the answers were wishy-washy but given the information in the thread at that time and my reads on the players I posted what was going through my head about them. I didn't engage you because I was waiting to see how the other two took the question and quite honestly, at the time I felt your posting spree was because you were in favour of town.

You could put literally any two posts in the thread side by side and try to make something of it. I'll admit it looks clever and it's good presentation when you're trying to pin someone down but there's no actual meat behind it.

It's the same with the majority of your points directed at me. I'm not actually all that worried about Citrus any more but I think you're slipping. I could believe you were town before that post but they way you went after me with such an effort to spin shit makes me think you really are an overactive wolf trying to figure out how to scum.

---------- Post automerged at 09:38 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:37 AM ----------

Oh and for the record;

Unvote Citrus

 

You're right. I called Newcomb out for doing the same thing. I'm sorry. Will keep it straight.

 

Before I get back to eying the posts from 31 onward, a quick thing from my skimming via mobile.
Newcomb, you've definitely been playing to a different tune this game compared to Narumafia. You were much less concerned about how you were perceived and didn't care if you stepped on peoples toes when saying or doing something that game, and as Math said you were ballsy to do that in the face of players saying "don't necessarily do X" but you did it anyway.

Here, you've been real worried about how the other players respond to you. If you're really town it shouldn't matter so much in a flip-open game. Defending yourself is fine and good but as the poster boy for that you're going to get suspicion. You aren't being a Math/Titus detriment if that is what you're thinking - those two are on a completely separate tier of madness.

Just keep playing and try to hone in on your scumspects with logical cases. The Scum will inevitably try and push a minor infraction as something major, or twist a situation to suit their lighting, and its up to us to see through that bullshido and nail them to the wall for it.

---------- Post automerged at 07:05 ---------- Previous post was at 06:17 ----------

Also-also, I phrased things in my 108 a lot like I did my rundown on Math and Kalas in Narumafia.

New -'s Rubicon and votes him. Regarding Scum to town ratio, having 3 Scum in a 12 player game... lets do the analysis of that.

Pure town-to-Scum game.
D1. 12 alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK N1. D2. 10 alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK N2. D3. 8(3/5) alive. MyLo/Endgame(according to Wiki). Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK N3. D4. 6(3/3) autoloss for town, Scum win.

D1. 12 alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK N1. D2. 10 alive. Lynch 1(success). Scum NK N2. D3. 8(2/6) alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK N3. D4. 6(2/4) alive. Endgame. Lynch 1(success). Scum NK N4. D5. 4(1/3) alive. MyLo/LyLo(IIRC). Lynch correctly here for town win, otherwise Scum win the 1/1 come D6.

D1. 12 alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK N1. D2. 10 alive(3/7). Lynch 1(success). Scum NK N2. D3. 8(2/6) alive. Lynch 1(success). Scum NK N3. D4. 6(1/5) alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK N4. D5. 4(1/3) alive. Endgame/MyLo/LyLo. Either lynch correctly here for town win or Scum 1/1 come D6.

Why do I have the first lynch as always a mislynch? Because, barring Narumafia, I believe we have always mislynched on the first day. Following the flip at the end of D1 and N1 we have increased odds of lynching correctly D2 onward by looking at player behavior leading up to the previous Day's lynch, and each successive flip will help narrow this field down.

The first scenario accounts for town losing a major player to either mislynch or NK and the Scum managing to manipulate the flips in their favor, essentially a worst case scenario.

The second scenario accounts for reading the flips D1/N1 correctly and lynching the first Scum D2. Depending on the flip from D2/N2 the Scum manipulate us into another mislynch, but cannot perform the same sway from the flip D3/N3 and we lynch another Scum correctly. From there it depends on the players still alive and interaction analysis. A moderate case scenario.

The third scenario accounts for the Scum not being able to sway us regarding flips on D2 and losing two of their team D2/D3, while the last member does manage to sway us D4. From the flips D4/N4 we either lynch correctly or not. Possible case scenario given the methods of reading the situations available in a flip-oriented game but I find it less likely after a couple of no-flip games in a row.

Town-Scum-3P game.
D1. 12 alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK, SK NK N1. D2. 9(3/5/1) alive. Endgame(IIRC). Lynch(mislynch). Scum NK, SK NK N2. D3. 6(3/2/1). Scum wins.

D1. 12 alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK, SK NK N1. D2. 9(3/5/1) alive. Lynch(success). Scum NK, SK NK N2. D3. 6(2/3/1). Endgame. Lynch(success). Scum NK. SK NK N3. D4. 3(1/1/1). Scum win or SK wins.

D1. 12 alive. Lynch 1(mislynch). Scum NK, SK NK N1. D2. 9(3/5/1) alive. Lynch(success). Scum NK, SK NK N2. D3. 6(2/3/1). Endgame. Lynch(success). Scum NK. N3. D4. 3(1/2). LyLo.

Seems a lot more unbalanced, doesn't it? Town can lose N2 in scenario one and N3 in scenario two. Town can only win in scenario three even with successful lynches from D2 onward.

Cripes that took a while. Onward to the the rest of the posts.

 

what

why

why are you writing out endgame scenarios before anyone has even died

 

Rubicon comments without debunking or following through on New's Scum ratio to see how it holds. Pushes for a Blab comment out of New.

Scott defends against Jan. New soft -'s Blab in response to Rubicon. HF pops in to explain RVS to Scott and does fuck-all otherwise. Starting to seem like a pattern of just posting for the sake of posting and/or offering base thoughts that don't revolve around Scumhunting.

Wei's response to New's Scum ratio seems good. +'s New's thoughts to Jan on the Cop check N0. Also, no, you can't stop the forum from eating quotes-inside-of-quotes.

Rubicon addresses HF's prod about Blab's introductory post. his fluffiness regarding your 25, *why* does Blab's post feel artificial and not sit right with you?

New prods Jan and I over the no N0 Cop check. In response to the alternative!Cop flavors and/or inclusion of a Cop in this game, New, there is no guarantee. But I'd expect some form of check against Scum even in a flip-oriented game for balance.

HF's response to Wei in his 39 is proof that HF isn't doing the research.

Rubicon prods New over the Cop concerns.

Conclusion so far: HF is definitely climbing my wall. Unsure of Rubicon at this point.

Iffy on New's 41 to Rubicon. Could be reasonable or could be trying to brush off suspicion. Citrus addresses New's Scum ratio sensibly and +'s New for the same post I'm iffy of. Wei follows up with more Scum ratio D/N analysis.

Citrus prods HF with the Question.

Wei follows up with additional thoughts on Scum ratio. Rubicon pops in to -New for the same post Citrus +'s and I'm iffy over. New +'s Rubicon for town, -'s Citrus for scum.

Enter Vira. I agree with her thoughts on New here. Neutral on Citrus, agree with her on the latter part of Scott. Neutral on Blab. Neutral on Jan. But then we reach Rubicon, where she says almost nothing despite his posts. Does anyone else agree with "Fluff: townish, asking logical questions about inconsistencies"?

New responds to Vira's accusations but eh. Reexplains his reads on Rubicon/Citrus/Snow. But here he waffles over Citrus'... intent? He's pulling a TMNT from Narumafia IMO by saying X but then backtracking to say 'also maybe Y'. I don't like that. And New, you aren't an extremely new player. You have experience gained from Narumafia. You performed exceptionally well by using your Sakura feint against the Scumteam and helped us turn around on Jan to hyper-lynch Snow. You read the situations decently. I feel like the end of your 49 here is what nails you as newbie Scum trying too hard to blend in.

Seratin, you should have played Narumafia with us. 3-400 posts in a Day was the norm with Titus and Mathblade active. 50 posts this early into D1 is nothing. Now why do you say that about RVS? Aren't most random votes supposed to be that, random? I think back to Scott and his "random" vote of Snow with Jan's matching colors and then his refusal to vote another player "without reasons" when you say this.

Seratin -'s both New and Citrus here. Tries to imply back-to-basics mind set, as if to downplay the problem of asking "hey guys PR's are probably lurkers yeah? Y'all agree?" I mean that question is just bad, period. Drawing attention to PR's is more likely to help the Scum examine townies for matching behavior and then NK them. Which is why I jumped on Jan for seemingly pushing Blab in that direction. Scum tend to lurk(Typhon IIRC Narumafia and at least one if not two WH11!Scum).

Citrus re-enforces +New town without reasons. While I can see he would have a point this early, it also reeks of excusing Scum!Citrus' absolute surety of town!New if we're in that world. Citrus prods Blab and votes Vira.

Rubicon prods Citrus.

Conclusion so far: Seratin is also up my wall. Up to post 52 and taking a breather.

---------- Post automerged at 08:05 ---------- Previous post was at 08:03 ----------

To find out how many fuck ups can happen before we're in it deep. Why are you opposed to this? I did the same thing D2(IIRC) in Narumafia or thereabouts.

 

okay but that just looks like busywork at the moment, when you should be focusing on reading players

i didn't care what you did in Narutomafia because i was scum and whiteknighting you

 

I was running New's supposed 2 wolves / 1 3P, 3 wolves, 3 wolves / 1 3P Scum ratio before I went any further. IMO a setup built by Eido and Kalas wouldn't allow 2/1 or 3/1 but 3.

---------- Post automerged at 08:13 ---------- Previous post was at 08:12 ----------

Also, thoughts on the rest of my 189 above?

 

It's long. It's a summary of things that have indeed happened in this thread. I agree with hf and Seratin being scummy and Rubicon being a mystery. I think Vira's townread on fluff is weird. I do think Newcomb is trying too hard to blend in, but the frustration is ehh, could go either way.

---------- Post automerged at 08:40 ---------- Previous post was at 08:25 ----------

Am I alone? In Hannibal's house? Because you know this game is taking place at his house, he's probably throwing a fancy dinner party and we're all standing around mingling before the main course begins (the main course being the Day 1 lynch, obviously. Unless we hit a cannibal, in which case Hannibal will have to make do with a vegetable appetizer until he can get some town meat on his table).

Don't leave me alone at Hannibal's fancy dinner party. I need someone to make conversation with so as not to look like easy prey.

 

Shhh, I'm here, everything is alright.

 

There's one person I know at this party but they suck and I don't want to talk to them.

Then there's another person I'd love nothing more than to spend the entire evening with, because I know that as long as I'm with them we can get through anything Hannibal tries to cook at us.

nudge wink nudge

---------- Post automerged at 08:41 ---------- Previous post was at 08:41 ----------

oh blab

kill me quickly

 

Eh, you needled me. That's even a towntell for you.

But I probably need to show off something, allright

 

yes blab

show us your stuff

go off

 

Allright. I'm down. Preferred method?

Why do you think Seratin is scum?

 

Strangulation. It's slow and intimate, like a dance.

You can ask me questions once you've shown off a bit.

---------- Post automerged at 08:53 ---------- Previous post was at 08:53 ----------

I know I said quickly but eh, that's no fun.

 

Sure, next time I write porn for you, I'll include some asphyxiation.
Scum-hunting is usually a process which includes conversation, you know.
Monologuing, I can really only give reads. For the start I don't think Seratin is scum. Why do you think Seratin is scum?

 

oh darn it I'm writing short stories in my QT

---------- Post automerged at 09:08 ---------- Previous post was at 09:04 ----------

I think a lot of people are townier than him, didn't really like his first post (just talking about how early in the game it is), he threw out a reaction-testing line but doesn't seem to care so much about the actual reactions (as in I don't see him doing anything productive with the information), he votes Citrus and implies that Citrus is scum with Newcomb but he doesn't really push on Newcomb, even after he unvotes Citrus and calls Newcomb wolfy (several times in several different ways).

---------- Post automerged at 09:09 ---------- Previous post was at 09:08 ----------

blab I did a story about you!

no porn though, sorry, just hidden food and running around a big house