Who is Rubicons most likely partner?

You seem to be enjoying the trainride, but if there are 2 scum left, which is not unlikely, who is his most likely partner and why?

 

I currently believe 1/2 of rubicon and blabtisian are mafua

 

Why not both?

 

This made me groan on the inside.

 

Blink twice if you're scum.

 

Jan, can you walk me through why Vira is such a strong townread?

 

Rubicon or Citrus are kinda mafia for defending Seratin after the VT claim.

I don't think it is both and Citrus has more townpoints outside of that.



Fontisian could easily be mafia regardless of Rubicons allignment.

If he is mafia and dies today, she needs every little bit of towncred after blabs d1 play.

If he is town and she is mafia, she gets a misslynch. And she is kinda living on borrowed time right now.



Seratin voting on Newcomb end of d1 instead of Blab is kinda weird, because if Sera wanted to survive he should always go on blab and try to sway the votes over to him.
Going for Newcomb was really weird to me.

There most likely is a open copcheck on Fontisian or Rubicon out there, so if they are both scum, bussing early on is a must to have any chance of survival. (Might be JoaT check or Cop check or whatever, but it is likely that town has a check).


Will give you my full read on Vira, Rubicon.
(Playing boardgames right now, so going through the thread and doing all that might take a little while, gave you the half assed read earlier as a start.)

 

Because they're very likely unaligned and the interactions between the player slots don't look like T v T at all.

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Jan do you really think scum Rubicon would try to push on scummate blab while seratin is going down. That's like... Such bad scum play. Like jeez

 

I haven't read anything yet but AUGH I'M SO ANNOYED I HAD TO MISS OUT ON A SCUMLYNCH WORK SUCKS

fontisian when I catch up I hope I want to kill you significantly less.

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Kalas, just resize the imagine in Paint or something.

Manasi is here so I'm gonna leave you suckers.

 

Vira

Damn, I looked at your gender the first time just now, sry if i referenced to you as a male before. :O


#48

Her first readwall, early into the game. The one read I did not agree with at the time was fluff, or rather I would not have given fluff a townread for the amount of content he had produced at that point.
Every other read was solid, some townreads were not as elaborated as one might wish, but i read the people the same way.
The Newcomb read was off, but the reasoning was solid.


#74 + #84

I really like the way she interacted with Newcomb.

I don't really see scum!Vira saying that to now confirmed town!Newcomb.

Early Scumread on Seratin is also a plus, now that we have him flipped Scum (being a/the scumrole, that is someone scum is more likely to protect).


#119

#157

dissecting more of newcombs posts, without trying to push useless scum.
it feels really more that she wants to get reactions and find out newcombs alignment, than burying him.

She then agrees with her main scums scumread on scum!Seratin. Why would she mention it, if she wanted to push scum on Newcomb? This would just push more attention to her possible partner (If she was scum).

#180

Flipping on Newcomb, after his meltdown. This post reends really genuine to me.

#211
Moves on to her next Scumread, the now confirmed scum Seratin.
Again, if she is mafia she never puts that much effort into pushing scum on a/the mafia role. She just tries to push on Scott in that case, who is another big questionmark in her reads.

#251
The one weird part for me is that Newcomb is still that low on the rainbow, because she felt his responses when he had his meltdown felt "pretty townish".
Everything else is pretty close to where i believed the game to be at.

I had blab as topscum, but that was mostly for the sake to put some pressure on him, because he did not do anything towny up to that point.

#303

The same reason to follow Newcombs experiment that i have.
If you don't have anything to hide, you don't mind playing along in other peoples games because you just come out on top.
Scum are more likely to not do it because they are afraid to get scumread.

The reasoning to not vote on blab at that point sounds solid as well, and if blab/fonti flips town rubicon trying to grow the blab wagon here is really scummy.

#310
Votes on Seratin. Considering her play d1 that vote makes sense and is reasonable.
She is, at this point, the fifth person to vote on Seratin against 3 people on blab, thus shifting the wagon in a really dangerous direction if they are a scumteam.

Seratin (5): weiyaoli (137), Newcomb (143), Zenzao (208), Citrus (273), Vira (310)
blab (2): Jan (235), Snowvon (236), Rubicon (272)

Not voting for a little while to see if someone votes on blab would be the play for scum to make.


#400

Even after Seratins VT claim she wants to kill him, 2 people considered moving off Sera on blab, as scum it is easy to try to make the wagon move on the afk blab.


Summary:
I read Vira towny day 1 for the way she interacted with people, and the way she pushed on people, tried to question and talk to them without burying them.
The interactions with now conf!scum Seratin make her just look even better than she did before.

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I kinda agree Citrus. The only reason to do it would be that the blab wagon was starting at that point anyway, and he felt fine going along with it, to protect the rolecop.

Von and I were going on blab anyway at that point and when the towntrain comes you better hop on or get crushed by it.

They are more likely than not of different alignment, but i do see a world where he had to decide to push on one of his partners and decided to go on the vanilla mafia instead of the mafia rolecop.

He could have never started a reasonable wagon on Newcomb that day, that guy was hard townread by several ppl who everyone thinks to be town.

 

But they all tie themselves together so damn hard if he tries to bus a scummate to save Seratin. Like that's SUCH a -EV move

 

I agree the move is bad. Not sure what he would have done mid d1 in that situation if all of them are scum and both of his partners are afk.

It does not really matter if they are a team or not. It is likely that at least one of them is mafia, we can agree on that, right?

So now on to finding their possible partners in either world. While esp blab did not do a lot, other players gave reads on them d1, maybe there is something to find in there.

I dont think Vira is scummy, for reasons mentioned 2posts ago.

Von is still my toptown, all his play d1 just screams fun and outgoing. Last time he was so much more quiet and boring.

Zenzaos day1 play was close to his Narutomafia play. While i dont know his mafia play, I still feel really good about him.

I like his response #417 to my post. This is feels like Zenzaos town paranoia to me. He wrote that after the vote on Seratin got hammered.
Mafia Zenzao knows he can't change anything and pushing paranoia on my reasoning to kill Seratin over Blab would not make any difference.

That is just the most recent Zenzao thing that is stuck in my mind.


I never really explained because the day ended. (Don't think it matters that much after the flip)

We had 2 lynch posibillities :
Seratin who is either VT or Scum.
Blab who is VT, Powerrole or Scum.

With blab afk, we had not chance to get a claim out of him.

If Seratin flips Scum all is good.
If Seratin flips VT, it is sad, but he didnt play towny.

With blab the first 2 flips would be the same, BUT
If Blab flips Powerrole we fuck ourselves hard, because he was afk.


Also Seratin with his VT claim regardless of alignment will not be killed by scum because he always would have remained a questionmark.

Blab as possible PR was (and still is, now with less penis) a possible nightkill for mafia, if they scumread him/her.



Also the most important part. I am the last german standing, and I didnt even have to kill blab! better than highlander confirmed.

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weiyaoli
+ early townread
- lost some towncred due to lack of content.
+ i liked his 3 isos
= solid townread

Citrus
+ if he is town, he baited scum into killing a vt n1 instead of a pr.
+ active and inquisitive.
/ his question to fluff, weird to me.
- one of the ppl trying to sway votes off Seratin early on.
= leaning town, if rubicon flips town it might get weird.

his fluffiness
/big bag of nothing for me.
+ Seratin was one of the 3 ppl voting on him, but that was early on, and does not matter much.
/he was ill, so he gets some time to recover before he is the main dish.

ScottPress
- Did not like his early game interactions with me
+his first readwall felt alright
/have to reread most of the rest - somewhere in the middle for now

Rubicon
- wanted to sway people to vote blab instead of Seratin
/i don't have anything really good or bad on him day1 before that.
/ already 4 votes on him, it only takes 6 to lynch. stop voting on him until we have talked for a bit!

fontisian
- Blabs day 1 was awful at best.
- his most evaluated townread was Seratin
/ she brought a lot of fluff and fun.
- and not a lot of content, yet.
/will get a bit of time to settle in. I expect the streets be be coloured in crimson, and scum bleeding at your feet, if you are town.


Gonna be semi-afk for a while, seems to be a dead night anyway.

 

So, Newcomb was acting that defensive because of pressure? Okay, then.

I know you (Fluff) responded a few posts later, but I’d like a full readwall from you. You’ve been quiet.

Why is it weird?

So, what's your reason for voting Rubicon? All your post seems to indicate is that it’s for trying to lynch you/Blab.

Why do you have Scott as slightly towny?

Then how do you think Font’s doing so far? Blab barely had any content to his posts, but since he had so few posts in general, focusing just on him is weak.

I think I understand what you mean, but I'm not quite sure. Can you re-word it?

lol, no problem.

Also, can we go back to quoting posts you’re replying to? Not doing it makes posts really hard to read. :/

 

Will do.

It was a joke, because she dies n0 a lot when she is town. So she has to be mafia when she is alive day 2.

Blab/Fonti did nothing day 1 and townread Seratin hard town.
Rubi tried to sway the votes from now conf!scum Seratin.
If there is a town-powerole with the ability to check ("Cop" or "Jack of all Trades" for example) it is very likely that one out of those got checked during the night.

 

This is the part where you prove this with quotes or get lynched.

Vira: The Rubicon pressure isn't important right now. I'll get back to you on it.

 

I gave a full accusation day 1, and he never even responded. #235

Here Blabs quotes on Seratin :
#199

#201

I think it is cute that you dare to bring up lynching me. Try again, after reading the thread.

 

That's not "townread Seratin hard town." Nor can you prove that blab did nothing D1, as, prior to his disappearance (something both you and Rubicon are denying) he was doing things.

You are deliberately exaggerating blab's svumminess to get a mislynch. Next time, don't assume that I won't iso my predecessor when you want to start slinging bullshit.

Unvote
Vote Jan

 

What did blab do D1, in your view?

She's still catching up on the thread, so I'll reserve judgment.

What do you think?

 

Things.

Take a stance on things, Rubicon, dear.

 

Okay, that's what I thought. Thanks for explaining.

Her reasons for voting Jan is weak. While Jan exaggerated that Blab saw Seratin as a hard town read, it was still a townread, and Font took it to mean Jan was

It's a big leap, and my opinion on her isn't great.