Rubicon

D'you really think Vira is your top scumread at this point? And, based on the last VC, the votes are spread all over the place and it's already difficult enough to keep track of who's voting who and for what reason.

While it's always good to poke people and put votes on them to make them feel that pressure, one vote is never going to do the trick. We should at least consolidate onto two to three wagons that have been major points of contention (on this note I'd like to say that I'm not opposed to there being a fonti wagon). Vira is not that. Vira will not be the lynch today. Please move your vote to where it'll be useful.

Worst case scenario is yet another CFD.

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Oh, right, forgot Vira was essentially sheeping Waco's readwall.

Yeah I'd like an explanation on the Koala too.

 

Hmm. I don't really get the gimmick thing, I'll admit. Like, yeah, I've read those posts and can follow what they're saying and can see that they /could/ be valid, but I'm not convinced by them.

I guess that makes this the inverse of how we stand on Rubicon, which is okay for right now, I guess. I don't really want to lynch Miner today anyway. I have a hard time pointing at anything that feels towny from him, but there are scummier people as well (so, basically, the Jarizok thing again).

 

Hey typh, why didn't you just bid 499 on hitman x2 instead of asking someone else to do it?

 

Good luck Vira!

Act understanding of where they're coming from, even be helpful whIle treating it as a mistake. Make them start doubting themselves.

 

Yes.

This is a strange post.

Where does this confidence that Vira is not the lynch come from? Several people seem think she's at least questionable. Did she become confirmed town when I wasn't looking?

What is your read on Vira?

 

Why do you keep making me want to respond with Fry memes?

 

Morning (or something) all!! Going to a hockey game tonight so will be gone for a bit, but no work tonight, so yay!!

Found Rubicon's comment I'm good with mechanics funny, I've never considered it a strength.

My plan for when I'm marketplace owner is pretty simple. I'm going to try and pound the highest value town roles in early, with an emphasis on information roles early, and sliding more towards protective later.

For the D2 bids, I'm probably leading with: Bulletproof x 1, Cop x 1, and 2 of Watcher x 2, Tracker x 2 & Auction Detective x2. Primarily, I think it creates a strong balance between utility for benefit via role-power, combined with forcing mafia to decide between spending their limited money on trying to deprive town of these powerful roles or deal with a powered up town.

Re: the Newcomb thing. After WH7, I had to re-evaluate how I looked at Newcomb. My first reaction looking over Newcomb's catch-up was "Ah, here's Newcomb being Newcomb" which I associate with with town most of the time, but has gotten me in trouble a few times. When I looked over it again, I felt more skeptical about it, and decided to see if you concurred given you're more familiar with Newcomb than others I asked.

As for the mentions, I didn't think it was that numerous, but given I think I picked up a read on you in Mountainous and think I'm seeing it again here, and as a result have kinda shoe-horned you into my "Von compass" read, so you may have to get used to it.

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Good luck Vira!!

 

I mean, I seem to recall that she was at the top of a lot of people's readslists. Most notably Jan's. And tom's.

My personal read is LT, but I'm holding off because I want to see this post on Typhon.

FTR, she's LT because I more or less agree with her readwall, except for the fact that Kalas is way too high and I /think/ despite font's activity she's a little too low.

 

I'm less than a hundred posts behind now.
Hype.

This is the first solid town indicator of Rubicon (besides an awkward push from >randscum)
I'm pretty sure rubi/typh is not w/w, and Vira is just town. So for Rubi to be scum, they'd both be town and this is whatever the exact opposite of popcorning is. Scum motivation for this post is literally non-existent.

 

For Rubicon since he gave me an elect vote:

 

Wait is this right? Or am I getting people confused?

 

Thought typhon was the one sheeping my rainbow? Let me check

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Think this is Vira's most recent rainbow

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Alright, hockey time!!

 

Okay, let's do this thing again, I'm sure it'll go better this time with 100% more judging/leading questions.

Vira said a thing. That thing was that, with Hitmen in play, the Doctor role seemed underwhelming, and as such she didn't think it was a top tier town item - better to have it than not, but also not worth pursuing hard. The consensus was that this strategy was anti-town.

Rubicon suggested that she was town for suggesting we not have a doctor - specifically, that she would be less eager to suggest anti-town strategy if she was not town.

I said that sounded an awful lot like a "too scummy to be scum reasoning" - you can see how this would follow, since the logic chain goes "player makes anti-town statement"->"that player is probably town, because they would be unlikely to make such a bold anti-town statement as scum". There are quibbles here.

He disagreed that his reasoning was reducible to "too scummy to be scum", and called it a "small and unnecessary risk that he thought she was unlikely to take on page one".

We both doubled down on those positions.

Then I thought about it for a bit, and something struck me - a long time ago, Rubicon and I played scum together, and he commented on the riskiness of "making eye-contact with fontisian" (that is, openly disagreeing with, questioning, prodding, etc.) as scum while she was town. He explained it further by saying that it was a unnecessarily risky proposition because if she had overlooked you, pinging her might draw her attention and fuck you over, and so it was best to avoid it if you could unless there was a high value reward for doing it.

I felt like that was relevant here, because it was expressed in quite similar terms to those that he expressed his read on Vira in - that is, he called her anti-town suggestion a "small and unnecessary risk". I thought something like "potentially draw the attention of an active (she was then), skilled town player" was a perfect example of what Rubicon was talking about - a town player might do that, because what do they have to fear from the scrutiny? A scum player would not, because it's an unnecessary risk. If Rubicon had expressed something like that, he'd have been my first firm town read.

Instead, he said that he felt like Vira would not have suggested her anti-town plan if she had an anti-town alignment. That, ultimately, is reducible to "scum wouldn't do that, because it's openly anti-town for insufficient gain", which is reducible to "scum wouldn't do that, it's too obviously scummy" ie "too scummy to be scummy".

Rubicon garnered my suspicion because I have seen him consider things in the lens that I did/was looking for him to, but he didn't do that. He did the other thing instead.

Other people didn't agree - both those town reading me and scum reading me. Some, like you, actively pushed back against the read, others sort of shrugged at it and said something to the effect of "maybe, but that doesn't really do it for me".

I spent my last game on DLP tunnelling over something similar. I was wrong. I do not wish to repeat the experience, so that's chill. I'll keep it in mind as something that pinged me for later, and move on. Or try to. That's what I gleaned from their reactions - either I took an unconvincing angle to argue from, or I'm wrong. Either way, I've got a record of who responded and in what ways.

Does that answer your questions?

 

Ah fuck.

Well, in that case, yeah I really want to see Vira's Typhon case and I still don't understand why Kalas is so high. IIRC he usually just exists with decent content but low activity, winds up in like F5 or something, and probably becomes a mislynch. (This is all just from AYAW tho, so *shrug* on accuracy).

 

Classic fluffiness. Pick a thing in the most recent post, in this case a votecount. Add in some random knowledge from around the thread. Make a vote. It's... I want to call it townie. In a "I don't think scumfluff thinks he could pull it off" sort of way. But, like, scumfluff might know he wouldn't get blowback for it and he can just do whatever and hope his buddies influence the thread since he probably wasn't going to anyway.
Waffle waffle waggle

 

Honestly? Because I figured someone had already done it (I actually thought someone had probably bid 500 on it from daystart).

 

Typh if you want to answer my bid question that'd be great.

Also, I do think you're reading too much into the Vira interaction. While I do think it's risky to draw fonti's attention early (Lord knows I've experienced THAT), I also do believe that scumsiding in like... the first 5 hours of day one is not something that I'd expect scum to do.

I don't want to say that it's a good reason to townread Vira, because it's not, but honestly her followup has been fine and I don't particularly feel the urge to give her rope.

I'd much rather get Cobalt at this point.

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Ninjaed /10

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Wait but if you thought someone had already done it then why'd you make that post? It seems unnecessary if you were operating under the assumption that someone had already bid 500.

 

FWIW, scum!Fluff did exactly this at least once in SVM.

 

fluff doesn't get the "I don't think scumfluff can do this" card ever again. You know better .-.

 

Like, you expected Rubi to make a specific read, and he made a different one. With the same result.
Like, I'm not particularly bothered by the difference between TWTBAW and whatever precisely Rubi did. Because they both boil down to "this is a thing that scum is less likely to say than town."
What needs explaining is why that makes Rubicon scum. Especially before remembering that specific conversation.