It's kind of a weak attempt though. Jan hasn't done a scummy thing all game, except for his waffling at the end of D2, and that only makes me want to shake him down and steal his lunch money. Rubicon is already back-tracking on Jan/Nacho scum theory.

I want to disbelieve you only because I hold people to a certain standard and scum not automatically outbidding us goes far below that.

Why is Fluff your highest town read?

Good luck on the essay!

 

Nacho hasn't showed up yet. I fully expect him to roll up and point out that Jan was towny for the first half of D1, but has coasted super hard since he garnered those townreads. And the truth is that he has.

I'm pretty sure Jan is town because I don't think he does that absurd waffle if he's scum with Rubicon (or if he's scum with anyone besides Nacho, which is worth considering if Rubicon townflips but is fairly unlikely), that he's given us actual useful items as much as he has (although that's thin because ultimately that's RNG).

But. Dude really does need to step up today.

 

Because he's town and it's a fun reference to HPmafia. Seriously though, if we have scum hidden deep in the towncircle, it's Jan or Typhon before Fluff.

 

I respect and accept your fear of my superior skillset.

One day you will learn to really embrace me as the towniest town that ever towned.

---------- Post automerged at 19:11 ---------- Previous post was at 19:05 ----------

I have a set postion in the game, unles other people push some content that is capable of making me reconsider.
The big problem is that I don't have any hard townreads, but I feel good about my townreads, which is as important.

Let's hope Tammy and The Nacho Kid will be able to deliver soon. Curious to see where they are at once they have read most of the game.

 

There are actually a handful more towny Jan things than I remember, as I glance back over things. I don't love him (he's no longer lock town blue, but he's still probably a step above the rest).

---------- Post automerged at 12:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:18 PM ----------

I mean, I think I have the firmest views of anyone in this game, but you can't just bail on providing anything. Or, rather, you can, but you shouldn't.

---------- Post automerged at 12:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:19 PM ----------

Ugh, misplaced the second parenthesis in the original post.

For clarity, it should read: "I don't love him (he's no longer lock town blue), but he's still probably a step above the rest."

 

How is someone not a lock town anymore?

Either I was not lock town in the first place or you don't make sense.

Lock town means you locked them in as town. Which means you know that you do not waffle on that read.
Either don't lock people in or don't waffle on them once they are locked in.

This is pure semantics, but that does not mean it is not stupid.

 

I'm working with a couple key assumptions, things I feel confident are true: Typhon, Jari and Vira are town. Mafia were planning to win yesterday. Specific scumteams (like you/HF) are less likely because of that. The doctor is town. This leaves 7 possible teams.

The assumption you're making (that mafia would strictly prefer my lynch) is not something I feel confident about. The reason you mention is actually a stronger point than you think - Cobalt was likely to be replaced, and regfan's pattern so far is to bring in people who are tough to lynch.

You may be right, and it's something I'm considering. It doesn't seem like a strong enough argument to affect my reads right now.

 

It is not about bailing - but tell me what do you think I will get by rereading everything 5 more times?

Yes looking over Eod2 another time or two might be fruitful, but that is it.

I am not bending over backwards in a game where I feel good about most of my reads.

Yes the game should not fall asleep, but we have 2 subs that are likely to bring in some sort of new perspective to work with.
The gameday is still young and unless they both don't post within the next 24 hours I am in no rush to pull reads I don't have out of my butt.

---------- Post automerged at 19:39 ---------- Previous post was at 19:31 ----------

What does that mean?

Mafia had the plan to get a town lynched yesterday?

With Typhon having a set scumread on you, mafia would only need to nod along and do nothing.
There is no "plan" in what you are saying. The only thing mafia would need to do in your world is not fuck up or not post.

Do you have any other possible teams you can remove at this point?

I am assuming if that is your approach to the game at the moment that you have already done some more work in that regard, yes?

 

That's basically what I mean.

I might quibble about the "or not post" part.

I've talked about all of them today or yesterday - mainly the auction stuff between Vira and Koalas, and my last post about HF.

There was a point when you seemed to believe Waco had bought neighborizor, and he hadn't.

---------- Post automerged at 10:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:50 AM ----------

Koalas, thoughts on this?

---------- Post automerged at 10:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:54 AM ----------

To clarify, I don't mean they had a plan per se - I mean they had not given up on the game and were still trying to look town and play to their win condition. This was a legitimate question for me at a few points.

---------- Post automerged at 10:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:56 AM ----------

Did you ever read Mountainous Mafia? For posterity.

Also we need to work out a signature bet.

 

Oh by the way .. scum buying the 1x cop ability means something to the game :

1. Rubicon is scum and thought he was dying which is why he bought it.
2. Scum were afraid of a copcheck, which means at least one of them is not in the high/consensus townreads.

A team of 2 players that are very townread would not care a lot about a copcheck floating around because the cop would always go for one of their questionmark/scumreads.

Point 2 only matters in the world where Rubicon is town. (well it does apply in a scum!rubicon world as well, but in that world he bought it for other reasons anyway).


Another point : Rubicon - Why did you thinkit was a good choice for you to bid 500$ on cop going into d2?
You had a shitton of aggression coming your way as soon as the day started.

With 2-3 votes an you and Typhon case very very early on.

I am unsure if town!Rubcon would be as reckless as to risk getting the cop for 500$ while dying at the same moment.
Add to that the fact that you didn't mention it the moment you were about to get lynched, which is odd?

People were undecided and if you had claimed that you might get the cop for 500$ you could have swayed the lynch to cobalt, because you could not know that scum would go all out on cop, right?

This claim that you were bidding 500$ for cop early on is highly suspect.

 

You have 7 possible teams.

Could you rank them from most to least likely (hopefully with explanations)?

 

My bid was before all of that.

I thought Tom spewed me town pretty obviously with his buddying. Turns out people disagree.

The period of time where I was "about to get lynched" was about two minutes. Maybe I should have, but meh.

It means exactly two things from your POV:

1) If true, I am probably town.

2) One way or another, I feel confident in claiming a specific bid on a day when town probably has an Auction Detective. What does that say about me?

---------- Post automerged at 11:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:14 AM ----------

That is my goal for today.

---------- Post automerged at 11:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:15 AM ----------

In retrospect, claiming my bid would probably have been a good plan.

There is the (strong) possibility it backfires and makes people think I'm even more suspicious for claiming at the last minute, but it also would have been interesting to see how different people reacted - considering mafia at that point knew they had outbid me.

---------- Post automerged at 11:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:19 AM ----------

(Claiming my bid at EOD yesterday.)

---------- Post automerged at 11:37 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:20 AM ----------

Could you summarize your set position or link me to where you have already?

 

Locking it in.

Pending Tammy doing things and not being scummy, it's Rubicon/Wacomamma.

---------- Post automerged at 01:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:38 PM ----------

If anybody wants walls on why that is (besides Rubicon and Nacho) I don't mind trying making something semi-coherent from where I've been working in my QT, but I'm not going to go to the effort if people are going to skim and keep rolling on.

 

What if I don't even skim and keep trolling on?

Asking for a friend.

 

No more Typhon walls. For the love of god, no more.

You can head over to the sidelines.

 

Fun fact - my QT has more post than anyone else in the game

 

That should be a fun read.

 

My wall tolerance for the day has been exhausted by myself. We're in agreement about the scumteam anyways.

 

That's chill. Mind joining me on Rubicon so we aren't spread out?

 

Eh, sure. I did deny you the Rubi lynch yesterday after all.

Vote: Rubicon