You're right, I was frustrated with general responses I've gotten this game and I lashed out at you unreasonably. I'm sorry

---------- Post automerged at 08:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:51 PM ----------

Koalas, I've been posting when I can. I don't think that it's reasonable to say that I haven't been trying to figure things out today.

 

I think Vira/fluff is unlikely because of the way vira scumread fluff around EoD1.

Like .. Killing one partner throwing out a scumread on fluff that will not be redeemed in any way or form if flom flips scum is just odd.

The random ass motivation is something that does not go away and can be pushed on regardless of the flip.

 

Sorry, there's been this whole big thing for me today, and I've been sick, and <lots of other personal life shit that you guys don't actually care about>.

But it's shitty of me to just bail on the thread when I might be able to be helpful and I need a distraction, so I'm here now. I'm going to work on mafia through the night tonight (I'm in a second game where I've been even less active than I have been here for the last 4 days), so hopefully my thoughts will be out there in a coherent and we can talk in the time we have left.

I'm pretty much just going to work through my thought process in the thread here, so sorry if I'm vomiting a bunch of pointless (to you) stuff out there, but 5 heads are better than one.

 

Lynch Vote Count 4.3

Nachomamma8 (1): His Fluffiness
Vira (1): Nachomamma8

Not Voting (5): Tammy, Jan, Koalas, Typhon, Vira

Player Currently to be Lynched at Deadline: Nachomamma8

Day ends in ~24 Hours of this post when that countdown link expires.

Any money unused after today will be rendered useless, please submit your bids inside your QT in bold and winners of the auction will be notified upon day end, please remember bidding is no longer allowed within the last 10 minutes of the day phase. Also remember this will be the last day with a 96 hour day phase, it'll drop to 48/24 after today with majority votes causing a lynch then and there (6 alive, 4 to lynch, 5 alive 3 to lynch and so forth), message me if you have any questions.

 

Ooooh. Thing.

One of Koalas or Tammy is scum full stop.

 

I am so very sorry. The research for this presentation took way longer than I thought it would, and it's something I only recently took over which made it worse and the damn google drive folder was inaccessible so I couldn't get the materials I needed, and I just needed to vent all that but I'm really sorry. I thought I'd be able to multi-task but I got a bit overwhelmed and I can't multi-task then. But, normally I teach a class Thursday nights, but tomorrow night I don't so I'll be around tomorrow once I get home from work.

Anyway, I'm normally falling asleep right now, but I'm going to try to at least get through today's postings and do as much as I can before I pass out. Hopefully I'll at least get through today.

 

I've had this niggling thought that fontisian mentioned a bid at some point, but I kept forgetting about it whenever I reread.

Let's play a game of who is the real scum, yeah?

We should never lynch outside of this pair today.

---------- Post automerged at 09:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:13 PM ----------

Oh my god.

Belay that.

Those are different roles.

I'm /really/ out of it, okay?

But seriously, I'll get it together as I move on. Make myself some coffee or something. Carry on with your business, folks.

 

Oh okay that makes more sense. I was confused why you had a problem with font bidding on doctor.

That's okay I thought hitman was a vig at first.

 

Yeah, sorry, that's my bad.

Let me just put that way the fuck behind me, and return to going through remaining money like I planned. This is probably going to be super clear about some things that might be better off being obfuscated, but honestly unless I stumble on some grand insight that wouldn't be immediately obvious to someone with reason to consider the mechanics carefully - ie scum - I'm probably just going to let it ride. Cool? Cool.

If anyone has a compelling reason for this not to be done, feel free to shout up. I'll refresh before I post.

 

I mean.. points for trying?

---------- Post automerged at 11:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:58 PM ----------

As have I. One of us decided to be smarmy about it though.

---------- Post automerged Apr 13th, 2017 at 12:00 AM ---------- Previous post was Apr 12th, 2017 at 11:59 PM ----------

And how did that push go?

 

I think Tom would be likely to put both of his partners in any pile. And from my experience with Tom, it's dangerous to just go oh Tom wouldn't do *that* with/to/at/etc. a partner. When we were scum together, Tom came up with some convoluted reasoning that the people who were voting me early day one were likely scum because I was a mislynch scum needed to get in the player list.

Someone, Typhon I think, has mentioned how proud tom is about his unlimited scum range. He takes pride in doing things that people think scum wouldn't do.

 

Mmm. There probably shouldn't have been a 500 bid on Dayvig. 301 would have been enough.

Either Koalas is town and scum is always going to outbid for it, or Koalas is scum and they have no outbids left.

Too late to cry over spilled milk, but yeah.

 

What questions were so many that you punctuated it and what ones didn't I follow up on?

Why did you feel the need to say that you weren't following Typhon's case but that you were sheeping newcomb on rubicon even though you voted after Typhon's case and didn't mention newcomb's case?

---------- Post automerged at 10:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:20 PM ----------

So it's entirely possible that I'm not understanding this because I'm nodding off while reading, but Jan I don't understand your "we can't lynch koalas because if he's scum he can't win today". Why is it different for him than anybody else?

 

Typhon's Totally Not Incoherent Money Thoughts

Completely Certain Shit
We know with perfect certainty that scum bought Docx2 and Copx1. That's two 501 bids. Case closed.

D1
We can reasonably assume that tom was the one who bought the Docx2. That's not 100% certain, but I think at this point we pretty much have to assume it was the case (it would have been wildly irresponsible for him to have burned through his money earlier in the day, and I don't think tom fucks up like that).

That means there were at maximum two living scum with outbids remaining after N1, and at minimum one living scum with an outbid remaining (assuming town!Cobalt wasn't lying, and I think there's no reason to think that he would be).

Koalas is the swing here - I'll come back to that.

D2
Obviously scum bought the Cop. Obviously that brings us to maximum one scum outbid remaining, and minimum none remaining. The 300 on Docx1 almost 100% has to be town. Auction Detectivex1 almost has to be going to town - that would be an incredibly weird scum bid. Auction Detectivex2 could go either way, although the fact that no one has managed to get a red money check thus far makes me think it probably went to scum for 299.

In other words, the decisive question about the remaining number of outbids is still Koalas.

D3
Mmm. Hard to say much of anything for certain here. It's not impossible that one of the 500s went to scum, but if that's the case it'd almost have to be the Watcherx2 because if you were going to do that I think you'd necessarily want to bid early rather than lock your money for a significant part of the day and remove your control for a chance, and that's a tough sell to me (that they locked in their money like that early in the day to only partially deny town info roles). Not impossible, but I don't /really/ believe in it.

Very unlikely that scum bought Hitmanx1. If they were going to do that, they'd have bought Hitmanx2. Very unlikely they bought the Neighborizerx2 for obvious reasons.

~~~~~

So then, all caught up, we are living in one of two worlds:

1. No scum outbids remaining, in which case the scumteam is Koalas/tom/x - in this world, Koalas bid 500 or 501 on hitmanx2 at some point D1, scum used their last outbid on cop, and the two living scum both have less than 301. This isn't an impossible world. We have to assume in this world that Koalas and his pal are info role dodging with the kills at this point, which is reasonablish.

2. One scum outbid remains. Koalas is town, scum didn't bite on watcher/tracker yesterday. They're going to get Dayvig.

I /kinda/ think we're living in 2? Not 1000% on that, obviously - I thought Koalas was suspicious both early and when he was down to sheep me onto Rubicon immediately going into D2 after he fairly adamantly scumread me through D1. But I'm also not sure why Koalas would have claimed hitman if he was scum? Like sure, mess with town's head or whatever, but that seems like a super poor consideration of risk v. reward. Doubly so, really, because to buy this you also have to buy that Koalas bid early in the day on D1 on Hitman and got trapped on it.

I'm not sure I buy that.

That's sort of a distant view of things, though. When I feel more up to ciphering through things tomorrow I'll think some more on that.

---------- Post automerged at 11:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:21 PM ----------

Ehh, a third world does exist (scum bought one of tracker/watcher), but I think it's incredibly unlikely.

 

Scum can only win today if
1. we misslynch a town today
2. they kill a town tonight
3. they get the vigshot today (and use it tomorrow to have parity)
-> they need 501$ to actually get the vigshot.

Sooo .. 1. 2. are a given in all worlds, 3 is the important one.

What we know about the mafia team :
Tom was mafia and bought the 2x doc d1 (and his money is out of the game.
An unknown mafia bought 1x cop for 501$
That leaves 1x 501$ dollars out there.

If Koalas is mafia then we know that he claimed to have bought 2x Hitman d1 for 499$ and we know that he paid at least that much, because other people claimed to have paid the same.

I am assuming that Koalas is either town with 2x hitman or mafia that has the 2x hitman or knows a partner has it.
Koalas claiming with the first post in d2 that he got 2x Hitman, when only Newcomb died in the night, is just suicidal unless he knows where the hitman is.

That means scum cannot buy the Dayvig, because they always used the third 499/501 bit for 2x Hitman on d1.

 

Looking at votal stuff, Fluff looks pretty awful.

Like, really awful.

---------- Post automerged 04-13-2017 at 12:00 AM ---------- Previous post was 04-12-2017 at 11:54 PM ----------

He's in a prime scum spot on every EOD vote.

I really feel like lynching Fluff is kinda weak in a do or die-ish moment, but.

Like, the guy has been scummy. I'm in full agreement with Jan that Koalas shouldn't be the lynch today because he can't win today. There are other people that I need to look at again, but I don't have a problem penciling Fluff in until further notice here.

Lynch His Fluffiness

 

Okay, question.

No one has admitted to having bought Hitman x1. Therefore, do you believe Jari bought it?

 

Oh okay it's predicated on who can outbid on dayvig, I'll try to wrap my head around the rest of it, but that was the part I was missing.

 

Mmm. I think there are only a couple of possibilities of who'd have bought Hitmanx1 (for a few reasons), and they're all town.

Not going to be more clear than that, but yeah.

---------- Post automerged at 08:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:58 AM ----------

Let me dump my raw votal stuff into the thread.

D1
Just before Newcomb dropped his case
Votal 1.7
Jarizok (3): Tammy, Newcomb, Vira
Typhon (2): Koalas, Tom
Cobalt (1): Miner
Rubicon (1): Wacomamma
Jan (1): Fluff
Koalas (1): Typhon
Vira (1): Rubicon
Tom (1): Jarizok
Tammy (1): Jan

Not Voting (1): Cobalt

Elect Vote notables:
Rubicon, Tom vote Wacomamma
Vira, Miner, Newcomb, Koalas, Jarizok, Fluff vote Jan

Final VC
Tom (7): Jarizok, Newcomb, Typhon, Fluff, Rubicon, Jan, Vira
Fluff (2): Miner, Tom
Jarizok (1): Tammy
Rubicon (1): Wacomamma
Tammy (1): Koalas

Not Voting (1): Cobalt

Elect Vote notables:
Rubicon, Tom vote Wacomamma
Vira, Miner, Newcomb, Koalas, Jarizok, Fluff vote Jan

D2
Before it became a two wagon day
Rubicon (3): Typhon, Vira, Koalas
Wacomamma (2): Jarizok, Fluff
Cobalt (2): Wacomamma, Rubicon
Koalas (1): Miner

Not Voting (3): Cobalt, Tammy, Jan

When we secured the Rubicon lynch
Rubicon (6): Typhon, Vira, Koalas, Jan, Fluff, Miner
Cobalt (3): Wacomamma, Rubicon, Jarizok

Not Voting (2): Cobalt, Tammy

Final
Cobalt (5): Wacomamma, Rubicon, Jarizok, Jan, Fluff
Rubicon (4): Typhon, Vira, Koalas, Miner

Not Voting (2): Cobalt, Tammy

D3
Final(ish - Jan unvoted, but this is how the wagons were actually built)
Rubicon (5): Vira, Typhon, Jarizok, Koalas, His Fluffiness
Koalas (4): Jan, Rubicon, Tammy, Nachoamamma8

---------- Post automerged at 09:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:28 AM ----------

There are two in the following group:
HF
Jan
Koalas
Nacho
Tammy
Vira

Handful of observations:
-I think it's fairly unlikely Vira and Koalas (on a wagon two before the first I posted) or Koalas and Tom tied themselves together as the 1 and 2 votes on a town wagon D1 (me), and super unlikely that all three of them spent most of the day on me. Probably just going to rule out Koalas/Vira/Tom, and I kinda want to rule out Koalas/Tom too, but I think that's hasty given it's Tom.
--On that note, the scum team is /probably/ spread to three different wagons D1? Seems pretty unlikely they'd risk tying themselves together or risk pushing town one way or another when we were clearly undecided and could have lynched anyone. No point in pushing a mislynch when you can let someone else push it and lynch them for it later.

-If Fluff is scum, Nacho is probably just spewed town.

-I still kinda believe in Vira?

-My Jan paranoia is reaching critical mass, but I think that's something we shouldn't try and address today. Equally, we shouldn't lynch Koalas today.

So then my lynch pool is Tammy/Fluff/Nacho. I /really/ thought it was Nacho out of this group, but that had a lot to do with Rubicon/Nacho interactions and the assumption that Rubicon was scum. With a town!Rubicon, a lot of that goes away.

I thought Tammy read pretty pure yesterday. I don't actually know her as a player and I should probably look through that again, but I kinda think she is probably just town. By that same token, I kinda thought fonti was town in a soulread sort of way.

So then it's Nacho or Fluff for me. Fluff probably looks worse, Nacho is the much better person to have alive (and is psuedo-townfirmed with a Fluff scumflip). I have some more reading to do and I'll be back later to talk about it, but I kinda think we should just lynch Fluff.

 

Typhon - Talk to me about Nacho.

My gut screams he is scum, but I am not sure if I have the right words for it.
It is mostly a thing with his wording which feels very deliberate.

I feel like a lot of what I have read from him was either somewhat pocket-y or alienating people, but I don't know him well enough to be sure if that is just his style.

Tried to make a short case about it last night while playing allstars, but it is somewhat hard to put my thoughts into words.
I just got the feeling that some of his word choices felt a lot like him trying to discredit people and others were just meant to appease, but I am unsure if that is because we don't see eye to eye on a single topic or not.

---------- Post automerged at 16:20 ---------- Previous post was at 16:18 ----------

Ah well you just made some sort of catch-up post.

You can be worried about me for the day. I should be confirmed tomorrow one way or another.

I need to get to the store in a minute .. will try to talk about Nacho afterwards.