Eh. 80%?

 

Nah, 90%.

Amy's claimed first, she softed which night she saved first, her town motion detector check fits with her attitude change towards him going into d2. Meanwhile, Tom claimed within a minute of Amy claiming, so he probably saw her claim, thought "cool, I can definitely fight this" and went for it. And his treatment of Cuth sucks. And his Jari vote still isn't explained. And he's not solving. And his Waco stuff just feels like wifom. And I feel like he lashes out more as a wolf, like he's doing here. And his explanation for his targets had scum perspectives (both the fear of him being motion detected n1 and his stuff about saving the save in case a JOAT claimed, as both of those things are what scum!tom would have been discussing with his team). And he tried to get easily misled people like Vaimes off of Cuth d3, while wifoming it. And Cuth's townread of him reads like an argument meant to defend tom after Cuth flips.

 

Ftr, i did not see her claim.
I read regs post and did what he said

Certainly no proof of that though


My jari vote was because i thought he was scummier. Its in my readslists. I was openly only voting cuth because you and reg agreed, i disagreed with the read itself in thread...
God that feels like a weird way to be defending myself lol


Yes i try to lead impresionable people
Yes i think about night actions like scum

You already know both of these things



And no that meta is wrong im nicer as scum

 

Its because im intrinsically having more fun
And am less likely to antagonize people on purpose because i feel more responsible to my teammates

So neither probably applies in this situation since id be in some form of antispew if i was a wolf


To be fair

 

Yes, you did.

@Regfan 95%

 

Yeah, nod. All of this makes sense, thank as I was starting to get more tempted to go elsewhere and this quells that.

I do think we're probably looking at least plausible team mates from Tom then with Amy but yeah, I don't really want to prolong the game too much just out of small fears/paranoia about being wrong here. Tom/Cobalt clearly not a thing. Tom/Dels is looking pretty unlikely interaction wise and 'Dels isn't doing anything to try to win if that's the team' wise; I've also just town read a fair bit of stuff Dels has done today.

I think Tom!Scum means the partner is either the AWOL Waco, and there's definitely things that make sense if they're together in that Wacos can easily be a buss, timing of it and way he's gone about it feels that way. There wasn't a lot of "Oh yes! people are finally seeing what I am about tom" in his posting either on D3, and feel like the puss sort of stopped and weakened when I started pushing Cuth. Wacos just not around or done much which could fit with him trying to avoid having to vote Tom which he knows he'd have to as mafia with his stance sort of locked. It's an impressive amount of WIM from tom here though if that's the team knowing that this games just really a loss for the scum team regardless of what happens today, but I guess I could see it as scum!tom doing it as a pride thing.

I also am playing around with a Tom-Rubicon world a fair bit lately, in that Rubicons unvote on Tom and the lack of revote on him despite strongly pushing Tom!Scum on D3, and Tom!Scum leading into today feels sort of like a "I don't want to risk my partner being hard yeeted and putting myself in a loss position" so he's sort of just floating around and hoping that Toms WIM can get them out of this? I also think in the world where Rubicon is mafia well, that's where Toms play makes a bit more sense in a "trying to win" type perspective, because if Scum!Tom can dodge the yeet here, Rubicons got a much better chance of actually endgaming.

There's like very very low % worlds of like Tom/Vaimes and Tom/Gemma that I'd like to go back and completely rule out interaction wise too I guess, but I'm pretty sure Gemmas just always town here, if you've got any doubts /at all/ here letting me know would be appreciated.

 

Reg claimed first yo

 

I don't have any doubts on Gemma and Vaimes.

 

Thank, this all helps.

Teams probably just Tom/Waco, or Tom/Rubicon then if Toms scum.

 

I think i already said this but i agree my partners would be waco>rubi
Vaimes possible too, hes insanely towny here but ive helped create some of his better performances from scumchat

Gemma less viable imo, but the explanation is super esoteric and making this post is probably stupid in the first place

 

Eh, possible Tom didn't see Amy's claim. His response still sucks though.

Like, imagine tom getting a save and just starting the Day with "dope." And then his reaction to Amy was "interesting." He posted boring, one words thoughts because he didn't know what fakeclaim exactly he had to be making at that point.


Amy, meanwhile, immediately said she thought tom might be telling the truth, because that fit with her n1 motion track.

 

I might just look into some Amy-Cobalt, Amy-Dels, Amy-Waco, Amy-Rubicon stuff and see where I land on what teams are possible.

But yes, do agree completely that Amys claim has a lot more to it that reads as legitimate than Toms does.

 

Please do not attack me for claiming more correctly.
I agree it was impressive acting but if she were town that softing is so bad

It worked great as scum though

 

I like
Actively avoided anything that could have looked good for me there

Nice

 

Yeah I'm still comfortable ruling out Amy/Dels, I'm not comfortable hard ruling out Amy/Cobalt anymore.

 

Ive been headed the opposite direction but thats still my top two ill take it

 

Sloth
Fontisian, Gemma, Dels
Vaimes
Cobalt
Waco, Rubicon

Shrug. I think Tom!Scum you yeet Rubicon<->Waco and win the game, with a fair bit of leeway if wrong.
And Amy!Scum you yeet Rubicon/Waco/Cobalt and probably win the game unless getting snowed by someone.

Safest move is probably yeeting one of Waco/Rubicon today, but I think we should win regardless.

 

Prolly goes without saying but i will vote where im told today and do what im told at night

I think the move with both of us alive is i agree to protect sloth so amy (or me, if you prefer to think of it that way) has to kill elsewhere. Maybe sloth can go for stopping that kill
Or tracking it
Whatever he wants really

And of course im a wildcard so maybe wolves will go for the sloth kill and ill stop
Maybe they wont and ill psych them out and use motion detect

But im selfish i want the minigame. Ill do what im told even if its sad
But i think we should go in with options for both of us...
At least sloth should have choices

 

An analysis of Waco's ISO:

Waco is highly conscious of tom and Cuthalion's position in the thread ever since page 1, with a significant percentage of his content involving tom/Cuth.

He has been wolfreading tom pretty hard all along (see below for Waco's interactions with both tom and Cuth), but his read on Cuthalion is the opposite. He strongly defended Cuth from TerRaine's pressure on D1, and stated a townread on him for fairly weak meta reasons: that he feels different and is less active here than in a previous game where Waco and he were wolves together. At the point on D2 when the Cuthalion and Jarizok wagons were roughly equal, he voted Jarizok. He didn't develop any read on Cuthalion D3, and only voted at the last minute when pressured to by fonti (and others).

I'm going to go through these interactions chronologically and talk about each one. First, he poked tom in RVS:

and then moves to defend Cuthalion from TerRaine:

TerRaine immediately called Waco out for his response:

This is mainly notable because it means Cuthalion being pressured by TerRaine was, in his mind, the thing that stuck out to him as most worth responding to at 12:30 AM.

Around this time, Wiisp started coming under a lot of pressure and voted Cuthalion. Vaimes asked Wisp to explain the vote:

which Waco called him out for, seeming to suggest that Vaimes was trying to divert from Wisp onto Cuth/Akina? Cuthalion's position in the game is still a strong priority for him.

A little later:

Here he agrees with Cuthalion on Wisp, and puts his vote on tom. I think he's implying that the NK might have come from tom, though he doesn't elaborate on the point.

 

Here is Waco's case on tom, from a little later on:

tom is unwilling to call Waco's case on him either town or wolfy, and tries to move the conversation back to amy:

Waco doubles down:

Cuthalion posts a read list around this time:

This came before (and led into) most of the pressure on Cuthalion. Neither read is terribly exciting although arguably, the average wolf would hesitate to put both their partners together in a reads list with a similar read on both (mild reasons to suspect both, but conflicted / unsure about it).