No comment below a quote just means it is a null post not affecting the analysis.

Spoiler

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Here, scum!fluff would be asking his partner a question, which is meant to distance on a basic level. But it also doesn't have an obvious answer, so it isn't rhetorical, and it doesn't seem particularly fake to me.

Vaimes answers the question.

This is the post that made me take note of Fable's rng vote and as I kept reading the repeated references to it stuck in my mind.

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Response to Fonti saying we should lynch Cobalt

Fonti replies, 'He's a combination of unengaged and opportunistic.' So Fluff votes Cobalt. To me, it indicates he is going with the flow and is engaged in the game by providing support votes to those who make a case, as is often the default position of a less talkative player who doesn't lead. This is just standard fare.

In response to Fonti asking why he was so willing to go along with it.

Which was largely my same assessment of Cobalt. Other than the vote for Newcomb Cobalt had nothing going for him this game, and that vote didn't happen until later.

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Solving question and I can believe it plausibly leads somewhere. It's a question with no obvious answer so it's not rhetorical. It also comes from a villagery mindset and not one where a scumbag is trying to blend in as town. Highlighting one's own lack of content voluntarily isn't a great strategy, when he could just accept the town read from someone who has to be town by default in a scumfluff universe.

This could be easy to pick at, but I can believe fluff's explanation that he wasn't fully engaged and fully reading Newcomb's posts. He also was not nearly alone in saying that Newcomb was a bad vote, it seemed like half agreed and half disagreed, so this doesn't stick out to me as especially pushing general opinion. He didn't even bother to give a reason, which I think a partner would here. If you want to push the vote off of him, sitting on your reasoning until he is dead won't help him, and then you are still connected by saying this.

Along with many other Jari votes. I don't see this as alignment indicative because Jari had no content and Fluff was avoiding lynching several other people with votes. This vote isn't evidence of intent to me.

Here, he's telling Miner not to self sacrifice just to thunderdome Newcomb.

This is just to note when Jari did claim.

This vote switch doesn't have much weight, since others had switched before this.

End of day one.

I believe this is after the Jari watcher claim. I think it's not particularly alignment indicative, but if Vaimes is going to try to win a claim battle, a comment like this doesn't allow Fluff to convincingly back off of the Vaimes vote. Which is fine, you can play it either way. I just think cutting off all his options is a bad move here as scum and the decisiveness looks more villagery.

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Valid, and not the only one speculating this was the case.

Has read the roles list and knows that Vaimes' claim would be invalid.

In response to Gemma voting Fluff out of the blue on the day Vaimes is the obvious lynchee.

End of Day two.

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I am one of Fluff's mislynches. He shouldn't be making arguments in my defense.

I think I missed a quote here, so I am inserting it.

Giving more reasons why I shouldn't be lynched. I've replaced in, and for all he knows, I could come at him at any time. If he digs himself too deep a hole, he cannot then argue later that I must be scum. Again, if he is scum he's cutting off his own options and therefore his own balls.

I don't even think Gemma is scum and this is a pretty solving question to me. The progression is pretty bad, and Gemma did back off Newcomb after initially pushing it hard. I can believe Fluff thinking Gemma is a suspect here is plausible from his point of view, even though I disagree.

Here is where he puts the progression.

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Which is a legitimate point. I'm not saying he can't make legitimate points as scum, it's just that his questioning of Gemma doesn't even look like it is because Gemma pushed on him.

This shows that he's reading the game, that's also a solving way of approaching the problem. I believe this is an attempt to find partners.

In this post he has DC as solidly town, if you click for context.

Comments about Zen: This is why his later vote for my slot is also not opportunistic or scummy. It's his case. Which is why I laughed at Fonti's notion that Fluff had been defending me. Sure, but then he did a 180 and was one of my main attackers.

See above.

More on why the Gemma suspicions are plausible from his pov.

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More solving questions. Even though he's casing Gemma he is in no rush to bury her.

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His response to a pretty good point on why it can't be Gemma. If it were, someone would have tried to kill Jari overnight.

Now that he has moved off of Gemma, I am like literally his only other suspect in the game.

So here, scum!Fluff is cutting his balls off again. Gemma thinks Fluff is scummy and Fluff is now marking Gemma down as town and continues to do so from here on out.

At every point in the game where he has a choice to give himself more options, he keeps cutting them off.

So he spends day three closing off avenues of victory for himself as scum, as his big push to win the game solo.

How are these mafia moves?

If I hadn't been told already that the stuff in the first line is more normal for this board, I'd be suspicious of the reasoning given. Now it's null, and he begins to question Fonti about this.

I don't know if I buy this fully, but I don't play this way at all so it's just foreign to me.

So at some point he went back and read Newcomb's posts during the rush of votes. Which might explain why his vote was so late.

Day one was a big rush of posts at times.

Here, he's removing a ton of options for lynch. Marking off a lot of folks as town, some of whom he would need to lynch.

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Even though Jan is not his top suspect, he didn't have Jan as town, and Jan was behaving ultra scummy all game. Jan's suspects list was suspect.

His own case, not recycled bits from mine.

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This is my summary, as folks don't really read walls of quotes and commentary within.

1. Fluff seemed to be under no stress on day one. His vote movements were not strange or out of place. He was able to adequately explain all of them, as he should be able to if he were scum anyway, but there's always a chance it's difficult. When it was time to cut Vaimes loose, he did it in a way that also limited his options.
2. All of his suspects in the game were based on reasoning I can buy, none were opportunistic or taking advantage.
3. Scum!fluff could have taken advantage or pressed for an advantage at multiple points during play and instead found villagers and argued against their deaths, including one of his own suspects he changed his mind on.
4. He hasn't made any obvious attempts to take control of the game or bend the outcome in his favor that I can see. Nor has he really tried to get into anyone's town list on his own merits.
5. Gemma is alive and Cobalt is dead. This in no way helps Scum!Fluff win.
6. Interactions with dead scum were not non-existent, but also not an unusual percentage of his total posts, unlike the WoW game.

If he is scum, then he attempted to gain no village points from either scum's death that I can see, but also did not defend them in a way that would have actually saved their lives. While one post was made saying Newcomb shouldn't die, he couldn't even be arsed to say why.

He's also been clearing people he shouldn't and murdering people he shouldn't. I don't see a viable plan here, and I see too many towntells.

 

Yeah and this is how I thought about it the last fifty damn times.

I'll stick to spot checking people's logic, thanks.
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Hard disagree, depends on the townie. Some of 'em are afraid of being wrong and will therefore unvote if they start thinking they are and won't revote without a good target.

 

He also has no reason not to talk to a partner or try to distance from one in this manner. Once the forum meta is people blowing up at each other and then people also clearing other people based on that, scum have to dance along with it and insert behaviors just like these to blend in.

 

I genuinely think that there's not too many people who would've killed cobalt last night.

Like honestly maybe only two people could've done it.

 

Don't forget PR hunting exists.

 

I'll give my thoughts on Miner, DC, and Gemma-slot in my next sitting.

Those folks are easier to clear than Fluff, so you'll actually be able to read and digest the reasoning.

 

Vote: Ghouliani

I respect your effort, and I'll keep your fluff read in mind, but I don't think your analysis is genuine. You are incredibly charitable in interpreting fluff's content, while showing absolutely no attempt to understand Jan's mindset yesterDay or Fable's Today. The dichotomy doesn't make sense to me unless your reads have ulterior motives.

I would appreciate it if you continued clearing those other three.

 

Do you understand how brain dead stupid it would be for me to kill cobalt? Try putting in more effort into reading me than none thx.
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I think I tone read him getting mad at I think you for pushing him when he was on v/la as village.
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Jan is capable of terrible pushes as village it turns out? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Changed my mind I'm okay not clearing fonti but letting her be village for now since she broke the tie between jari/newcomb and voted newcomb.

Right after that was gemma voting jari so actually her reasoning of "I didn't think you needed my vote on newcomb" is fake af.

Wolf in Ghouliani/Gemma/dC

Something like this probably in that order.

 

you fucking wot

I refuse to believe Gemma capable of faking her initial enthusiasm/hyperactivity given how subdued her scum game has historically been for the specific reason of "being scum makes the game less fun"

Ghoul I could buy although it's a little harder to now he's, like, the only person really pushing the kart at the moment.

Also:

Do you understand how brain dead stupid it would be for Newcomb to produce most of his content by hard townreading a scumbuddy? Try putting in more effort into reading me than none thx.

(also also it's waaaaay more likely I was being pocketed. I am 98% sure he read champs)

 

I'm not lynching dC or Gemma, my dude.

 

Hey fonti, what's your current Lynch order?


This question may also be answered by anyone else who hasn't already answered it.

 

Probably Ghouliani -> Fable -> Fluff. I don't really buy Ghoul's arguments on Fable and Fluff, but if he flips town, I'm willing to considering not killing fluff at all.

Idk, I don't think Gemma, you or dC can be mafia, even just from the way Newcomb treated all of you. I also think there are things pointing towards both fluff and fable being town. I'd be pretty surprised if Ghouliani flipped town, I think.
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You might want to do some of your own solving, Miner.
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I'd think a mafia!Fable would have wanted to keep Cobalt and Jan alive while they were pocketed. Easier to mislynch someone like Ghouliani, who's doubting him, first. There's a world where he'd be worried about them turning on him and wanting to kill them before that happens, but I don't think he'd want to kill them while we still have three lynches. I have some concerns that he's clearing me because I'm siding with him, but like, he didn't do that shit for Jan and Jan was much more strongly in his corner.

Arguably, the Cobalt kill makes sense if a consensus town (i.e. gemma, dc, or miner) is actually scum and they need to have a reason to be alive in lylo. I think that's pretty unlikely though. Like, I don't think dc or miner would think to plan out the kills in that was as opposed to just adapting to whoever is alive and townread each Day. So there has to be another reason, like the last mafia seeing Cobalt as unlynchable (which would be weird with a town!ghouliani, because that mafia would assume they could use ghoul to lynch cobalt). I don't think the wifom angle (framing ghouliani, who cobalt was suspecting) has any merit, because ghoul is a bad spot anyway and doesn't need to be framed.

 

Vote count:

Fable (1): Ghouliani,

Ghouliani (1): Fonti,

Not voting (5): Miner, Fable, Fluff, Gemma, dC,

With 7 alive it takes 6 to hard lynch.

 

I mean realistically speaking the wolf has to have me in the PoE otherwise they can't win?

Which is why I have those three has my suspects, Miner still never a wolf, Fonti unlikely to be a wolf for reasons I said before, I'm gonna go with fluff not doing anything means V but I don't feel strongly on it.

dC doing nothing but going "I was obv pocketed cuz I'm bad guiz!" is just obnoxious along with him going "lynch Fable cuz idk just do it" and gemma's progression on newcomb was just not good.

Ghouliani writing a thesis on why fluff is a villager and one line on why I'm a wolf just seems like messed up priorities tbh and a bit TMI-y.

So yeah yeah my lynch order is my lynch order.

 

Not actually doing this, I said I townread you for being scummier than usual remember?

...okay truth be told I'm just not willing to come out and say that more because if I'm wrong about you again I am legit going to retire.

Actually fuck it I'm probably going to retire after this game anyway. Fable's town, because if he was scum he'd look better.

 

Fable, besides the last minute vote swap, what about Gemma's Newcomb progression was bad?

 

Because she called newcomb a wolf and then did everything she could to not lynch him. Like that was happening even before EoD she called him a wolf and then voted like 3-4 people that weren't newcomb. She has a post where she says "I pushed vaimes and newcomb today but I'm never lynching them" which could just be distancing? IDK her meta at all so maybe that doesn't fit but in a vacuum I could see it.

 

This happened at a pretty critical point at EoD, dude.

 

This is kind of hilariously dismissive. It reminds me of "Fable voted scum but could just be bussing?"

And in a vacuum it's WAY too on the nose for most scum to post. Natural aversion to specifically referencing the entire rest of your team in isolation and all that.

 

I think the problem here is that we almost always have to lynch two of ghoul, fable, and fluff here, and then if the game isn't finished then I really wouldn't know what to do with any combination of F3.
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Like I want ghoul to be the right answer here, but if he's not then where do we go from there?
Because just shruglynching fable seems bad.