I don't know if the case is even parse-able just reading it. If you follow along the game thread while referencing it, then you can see what I am seeing.

Blocks of text that are unformatted are garbage for convincing people of anything and really dumb to read while tired. This is the best advice I can give for making sense of it.

 

Iirc, you concluded that dC only voted with Gemma on town, not on his partners, but, also iirc, the scum!dc of the past felt super awkward around partners and tended to bus them. I think he would feel really conspicuous making such a clear pattern like that.

I am following along with the posts you're referencing in another tab, yeah.

 

Not dumb, hard.

I really should sleep, it's hard to pull away from the game though.

 

(There were 12 minutes between Zen asking dC to look at my old mafia games and his response in 298, btw, not 6.)

Here's an old dC scumgame, if you want to do the staying up thing.
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I kind of feel like if dC was Von's partner he would have been following Zen's posts to dC a little more closely and wouldn't have had to ask this?
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Also, this was a joke, not a too easy townread. You can tell because of the ":v".
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I also feel like you're ignoring my points against your idea that scum felt confident and had someone deep, and you pushing that narrative has an obvious benefit for you.
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I think the bolded is kind of a weird joke to make for scum!dC, as it's predicated on the idea that Newcomb /can/ hard clear him and let him coast, and he would be aware enough of the partner thing to not really be thinking about that. I suspect this is one of those reads that makes more sense in my head.
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Scum!dc is probably more likely to understand what a partner is trying to say to/about him.
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Talk about why this feels like it could be partnery to you, Ghoul?
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It's worth pointing out that this is an accurate assessment of dC's meta.

I think someone noted after this that it felt like Newcomb dipping his toes in the water by giving some light townreads on town, and that is still what it feels like to me.
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I really need to look at Newcomb's early interactions with Von again to compare, because I can't just see any similarities or lack thereof off of this.
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I think the question is probably genuine from dC. I'm assuming scum have daychat (and would appreciate any indication that I'm wrong there) and I know Von likes to post a lot in scumchat, so it seems very likely that scum!dC would have already known Von was going to be busy irl and some reasons behind it, which makes him less likely to question in the thread like this.
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"460- Questions Miner's vote on Newcomb for being random."

That isn't an accurate assessment.

He wasn't questioning Miner's vote or trying to make him look bad, he was trying to prod him for reasons. I can see how scum!dc might do that, but it doesn't fit well with your early idea that we has trying to deflect Gemma and the overall conversation away from Newcomb.
If his goal is deflection, why try to bring more attention to Miner's vote and get him to post actual reasoning against Newcomb?
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dC in general also tends to just ask people about whoever he's thinking about at the time, so I not sure how relevant that pattern actually is.
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Ok, your second point feels like a strawman. He's not saying /he/ cares about sticking out, he's taking Fable's question seriously and saying that scum!him /would/ care. He could be accidentally telling the truth, sure, but arguing that he was talking about his own pov in the game is absurd.
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Oh my god, there's another spoilered bit.

I can't, sorry. I'll try again tomorrow, would appreciate responses to my points in the meantime.

 

There's diminishing returns to doing full iso or reading another game right now, for me.

You look at Vaimes and Newcomb's interactions. They are basically setting mines.

Those mines are anti-analysis. It's designed so when we go back and read, we assume they're unaligned. The problem is, both of them flipped FAST, so you can see them doing it.

Those kinds of mines are also present in the posts I was referring to with DC. They're meant to make you go 'a partner doesn't need to do this'.

I can give you the specific comparisons.

If he has a pair of enthusiastic partners committed to this strategy of putting down mines, all dc has to do is play exactly how his scum buddy refers to his meta. Easy enough. Then, interact with them for as long as they are in the thread doing it.

It's way higher than random. These guys were not doing the same level of interaction with anyone else.

It's also basically half of DC's posts, maybe slightly under. I don't see that happening organically. That's out of place.

It wouldn't even be on my radar but they massively overdid it.
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And yes, specific answers to specific points forthcoming. As many as you need.

 

Lol, I'm sorry dude, but I can't see dC as scum after that reaction to you. I can't see how you can't see it either.

I'm sorry, but if you're town you've consistently tilted me with the lack of consideration you've extended to Jan, Fable and now dC. You have these intense tunnels, pushing some decemt points and a bunch of bad ones and then you never reevaluate.

I'm going to lynch you Today. Maybe we'll lose because of it. But I can't let you live after all of this.

 

My friend, I am reading very few posts this game and I am less likely to read a post if it contains more than a paragraph or two.

I get this but I guess I'm just more pessimistic/have a worse success to failure ratio? My thoughts immediately went to "if I try to win this game I will sabotage it for everyone else" instead.

Other than the fluff thing, no. Like I said, little original thought this game. I guess just go through the game assuming I'm town in preparation for tomorrow.

I mean that's why it's so hard to read the game at the moment, both mafia died before much could be said about or by them. There's Newcomb D1 but scum are able to be freer with interactions D1 so it's hard to pin things down.
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More to the point, it was like

"You're positing a scenario in which you are town. In that scenario, you are not w/w with anyone because you are town"
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oh god now I'm paranoid that fonti is pocketing me for F3

someone help
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font why did you link WH13

WH13 was awful

I Leeroy'd Acio D1 after imploding

 

Vote count:

Ghouliani (1): Fonti,

dC (1): Ghouliani,

Not voting (3): Prophylaxis, Fluff, dC,

With 5 alive it takes 4 to hard lynch.

 

I just vote Fonti there. There would need to be something big in her ISO to convince me that my strong townread on Fluff is wrong.

Before I run off and read another game with several hundred dc posts in it, tell me what you think your limits as wolf are. Do you agree with Fonti's assessment that you are just too timid to pull off such a dance on day one like I am suggesting? Is that something she can confidently assert based on your record?

What is your best wolf game to date? I don't even need a link, just describe it to me.
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He was also in this thread making posts during those 12 minutes. I was counting from one of his previous posts. I don't know how you can read one game and also keep current on another in such a short time frame.

Not a good game for comparison since he died d1 and was therefore under pressure. That's going to result in different behavior than here.

Huh? From how I am reading it, he's saying that the Mime game would be shit for comparing meta because it was an unusual game.

And even if I am reading it wrong, wolves ask questions in practically every game they already know the answers to.

Alright.

I don't remember you making any points, just dismissing the idea without looking.

It just looks like you're forcing the read.

If you're arguing that this makes DC a villager, then you are suggesting it's a towntell to ask a wolf to clarify a post.

The post in question is a reaction gif which doesn't really lend itself to being self explanatory.

How would it be unnatural or something a wolf would not do to make this comment? You're using this as evidence he's town, so tell me how it wouldn't be second nature to post that response to that gif between partners.

It is a difference, but not a fundamental shift in playstyle, like with Fluff's two games. It's not that hard to tweak something that specific.

The context of how they were behaving together over the course of several pages tells me that was the end result of their efforts. There was never going to be any other read given there, from the very beginning of page one onward. Anything different wouldn't make any sense.

Both of them make arguments not to lynch each other and DC. Both of them respond to each other's posts in the same flat tone. It's a lot easier to notice because they're both flipped wolves. Newcomb and DC do this a lot more than Vaimes and Newcomb do with each other, but given the lengths DC went to to avoid voting both of them, and get Gemma's mind onto different persons, change the conversation, I don't see how you could possibly ignore the pattern, even if you were dead set on lynching me first.
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The Witch Hunt game linked is really different. Setup is vastly different, it's basically night / day chess plus mafia mechanics, since everyone seems to have a power. DC has a slower start that game, barely posts for a while, posts are big paragraphs, more confident in asserting reads, but then falls back into the I don't believe in my own reads schtick by page 4 or so.

I am not sure the setup can account for the differences in play style, but you really would have to play that game completely differently than a mostly vanilla game. Also it's really hard for me to parse what's going on here since I don't know who his partners are.

 

Still think we should fully massclaim today; I don't want anything new to pop up in the case we do end up going to a final three type scenario and if there were any game-affecting claims we probably would have heard from them as of right now.

So @dichotomousCreator, please full claim, then popcorn to the next person.

Doing interaction analysis right now.

 

I will respond in full in a bit, but Ghoul, I am always lynching you here. I don't think your analysis is honest. When you say things like "It just looks like you're forcing the read," instead of trying to understand, it betrays the fact that you simply do not want to understand.

Proph, I get that you want the popcorn claim and all and that you need time. But you're killing Ghoul with me today. I've been ignored two Days in a row. Not again.

 

I have him in my PoE, and my gut is telling me that he is probably the final scum. I will get into the specific nuances of how I feel about him soon.

Just putting in the work now just to make sure every angle is exhausted given that I played pretty poorly Yesterday.
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Newcomb Interaction Analysis

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or an attack. I'll count other people's posts as well.
- denotes a passive mention. Same w/other people's posts.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.

Tammy will be the townie control group. Vaimes will be the scum control group.

Code:

dC***: |||||||||||||---------------------
fonti: |||||||||||||------------------
Ghoul: ||----
fluff: -
Proph: |||||||||-----------------------

Tammy: ||||||||||--------------
Fable: ||||------
Cblt*: ||||----
Jan**: |||||||||-----------
Miner: |||||||||||||||----------------
Jari*: ||||||-----
Vaims: |||---------

Not counting the early stuff where they mention Newcomb as a person but not as a player.

Most notable stuff when Newcomb enters the thread is that Jan puts Newcomb is the town category and then fonti goes "the Newcomb townread is too early". Super soft interaction here regardless, sure I'll get to more stuff later on.

Newcomb.. probably doesn't do this to a buddy? Just reads like the type of exasperation you would say to someone not aligned to you, but you'd probably just poke your buddy in wolf chat if they were this dense?

Yet another minor sort-of-organic interaction.

I remember being confused when I read this post when I asked if it was Newcomb trying to power wolf or him town reading two people he already knows is town. Looking over this again, I think it's a little more likely that Newcomb is town reading two people he already knows is town here? Trying to picture myself in scum!Newcomb's mindset, and he's sort of seen 300 posts go past him and he's trying to establish himself in the thread. Feels like he picks two people who are sort of posting and "contributes" two town reads on them, in an effort to establish himself here.

Thoughts on the above? Could totally be misreading this interaction but that's my take on it.

And dC says that Newcomb and Vaimes are pocketing him. Again this could be some sick scum gambit or something, but I think the razor points to him just.. being town and he just stumbled upon naming Vaimes/Newcomb as pocketing him? Because if he's scum, he wouldn't do this so blatantly on-the nose, right? I don't know how ballsy a scum player dC is but I know I'd be afraid of saying "Newcomb/Vaimes are pocketing me" because what if that's just, totally opposite of thread temperature?

Is this TMI for knowing about wolf Zenzao?

Is this Newcomb trying to slightly townread his buddy Zenzao? First mention of him all game.

Kind of difficult to suss out from Newcomb here. Essentially the question I'm asking is "is this the type of read Newcomb makes on a buddy" - and to that I am unsure. He's sort of pushing Zenzao off to the side here, is the thing.

Someone double check this interaction for me please?

And yeah.. just looking at Newcomb's 687 and he just keeps continuously townreading dC in a way that.. I don't think he would do if they were w/w together? At the very least I would not.

Could just be the confirmation bias talking, but I feel like fonti doesn't give this sort of read to one of her scum buddies. Her read on Newcomb here feels like it has a fair amount of nuance as opposed to the internal pressure to sort your scum buddies into buckets that.. I'd sort of expect to manifest if they were w/w together?

Also I'd expect scum!fonti to.. just be more aware that her buddy Newcomb is getting a lot of pressure and try to do something about it as opposed to being very aloof about it as she is here?

:thinking:

Does Newcomb ever shade/say this to a buddy who is pretty comfortably townread this Day 1? I'd wager like, never? Because why would you drag down a buddy who is in the clear here while you're under pressure? My guess is that you'd just keep power wolfing and feel good in the knowledge that even if you go down dC will carry and save the day.

This just /feels/ like a read Newcomb would give to a buddy. Like. Not interacting with him that much, but having him sort in the neutral camp and pointing out like 1/2 posts that Newcomb can go and say that he's town for.

font's interactions with Newcomb read very unaligned. Doubt she heavily defends him the way she did there if she is mafia I think.

Vaimes/Newcomb never interact with Zenzao and Zenzao never directly interacts with them.

So yeah. Let's finish the massclaim then I'm fine with lynching Ghoul. If this game goes to f3 then assuming I'm alive I'll put in the work once again but I think it ends with Ghoul here?

Ghoul's been putting in a lot of work and has a fair number of town tells but I can't shake the fact that his snap-vote of dC reads as heavily agenda-based, and he's kind of knee deep in PoE. Plus I've played with him as scum before and he is certainly capable of pulling this off.

Ghouliani - when you get a chance, leave a legacy, if you do end up flipping town I will consider what you will have to say, but I think it's the end of the road for you sadly.

 

Woop woop.

I'm with you on every point, Proph.

 

I would like to change my claim.
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Caught in a lie.

 

GG, nice work. Especially those who put work into analysis. Couldn't shake you.

 

The remaining mafia has conceded.

Town has won!

Mafia team need to let me know if it's ok to share the mafia QT.

Dead chat on discord.

Setup

 

@Newcomb @Vaimes @Zenzao

I am fine with revealing the qt, it's up to you.

 

WOOOO!

Nice job guys.

 

Postgame thoughts on strategy:

DC was too high in people's lists, but if I only kill there inside the deep townies, I don't have a real argument why I should live in final 3, and I don't think I even get close to there.

When I entered the game I was already at the bottom of the poe for most people, and the dead scums had spewed too many folks town. So, I needed to do things out of order or in an unexpected way.

That bought me some time and I got steadily townier in people's minds, but it was critical that I look like I am a villager solving.

I am actually satisfied with my performance today, in terms of acting like a solving villager.

The anti-analysis mine I deployed, which no one really triggered, unfortunately, was...

I was giving reasons not to lynch people I absolutely have to lynch in order to win.

Defending Fluff and being reluctant to lynch Fonti, and going for an almost suicidal accusation in going after DC, was supposed to leave the impression I cannot be a wolf because I have no plan that wins.

There were just too many factors for me to overcome. The surface impression I left was fine, but if you dig deep enough and don't fall for the theatrics, then the simplest solution is the correct one.

I could have left Cobalt alive and went for someone more confirmed villager but he wasn't really suspicious given his vote record and he was also someone I felt I could not fool or develop a dialogue with in a useful way in the next day phase.

If I just went with killing the deepest townies one by one, I don't think that improves my position.

I also thought there was a chance I could convince someone other than Fonti that DC was viable to lynch. If I get to final 3 with Fonti and Fluff then I think I have a 50/50. I think I could have looked more villagery than one of them.

Unfortunately, to make any of those dreams a reality, I had to personally crush everything in my way. I couldn't wait for town to collapse. Too deep in the POE for that.

If I went for Fonti today and then DC tomorrow maybe I could have improved, getting Proph out of the game would have made things easier to sell perhaps.

I also knew he knew I was capable of this kind of behavior as scum, but I kept him alive anyway because of the wine of why didn't I just kill him, then.

Wine was really all I ever had. Wine and a desire to put on a good effort. In the end, town always has the ability to win. You just have to hope they make a mistake and give them chances to. I did my very best in that regard, and was pleased I made any headway at all.

Just a bridge too far... couldn't sell it to enough people.