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Mini Mafia #6

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Citrus, Dec 12, 2015.

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  1. Prophylaxis

    Prophylaxis Squib

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
    Messages:
    8
    Hm.

    Delphine's #358 is super explainy, but also a very good look inside her mindset. One of my cardinal problems with figuring out this game is that I don't know if Delphine is able to pull off these kinds of posts as scum, and that's true with a lot of people in this game. So I guess I will remain uncertain with my gut saying Delphine is scum, and my brain telling me that Delphine is town. Looking forward to seeing her alignment in spectator chat, however.

    Unvote

    I guess I'm not super convinced on anyone right now, which is.. abnormal for me Day 1. I literally have a bunch of townreads and one or two scumreads that I'm not convinced on at the moment. I guess I just pick up the pieces and see where they go?

    I use that opener in my games as well, and since I'm aware of it then just treat it as a null tell.
    I guess if there's an example of possible scum who consciously avoided my wagon, then KaiDASH is it.

    Does nothing to engage with it, just says that my posts are "self-focused" and then handwaves the entire post as "underwhelming".

    Dive deeper into him Day 2 once I flip town.

    The only time I've seen you play was in IRC mafia. If we played together in another forum mafia game then I'm afraid that I've completely blanked it out.

    And when we're talking about when most people have similar views on the game (bunches and bundles of townreads, everyone voting me) then it's pretty natural that my views won't really rock your boat. Use that to justify your scumread on me, I guess?

    I can look through him tomorrow if you want. Once again, the only thing that pinged me was the Serial Killer comment while I've needed to stay awake reading his other posts, but I can go a little more in depth on them. No promises if I can convince you or whatever, since I don't have a slam dunk scumread on him.
     
  2. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH Auror DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2010
    Messages:
    609
    Location:
    Australia
    will you accept a wink in your direction?
     
  3. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    1,243
    Location:
    The Evergreen State
    Begrudgingly.
     
  4. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH Auror DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2010
    Messages:
    609
    Location:
    Australia
    That's the spirit!
     
  5. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fifth Year

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2014
    Messages:
    145
    Eh, my sleep deficit is catching up with me.

    Stopping at post 258.

    Also pretty sure there's a variation of IRL mafia where the killer winks to kill people. :p

    gn
     
  6. Delphine

    Delphine First Year

    Joined:
    May 12, 2014
    Messages:
    21
    Location:
    Automerge Hell
    oh I thought you modded AYAW2, I guess you mentored or something?

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:48 AM ----------

    that makes a little bit more sense though

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:48 AM ----------

    yeah no that was Riley ok
     
  7. Story Content: Votecount 1.5
    Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
    Messages:
    49
    Votecount 1.5

    Official Votecount 1.5
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Prophylaxis (7): Delphine (#18), Fontisian (#51), Newcomb (#126), Rubicon (#129), dLGN (#173), Koalas (#269), Snowvon (#270)
    Rubicon (1): KaiDASH (#116)
    Newcomb (1): Jan (#117)
    Snowvon (1): LochNess (#251)

    Abstain / No Placed Vote (2): The Storm (#174), Prophylaxis (#381)

    With 12 alive, it takes a majority of 7 to lynch. If 9 votes are placed on a single player at any time, day will immediately end with a hard lynch.

    Day One ends in 11 hours: Day One End

    Mod-notes:
    Delphine is VLA til the 19th

    I or Fluffiness etc. may be slightly delayed in ending the Day. In the event this occurs, cease ALL posting after the deadline time (you may post solely to remind each other of this if someone just keeps posting). You should ALL cease posting after hard hammers as well, if they occur (9 votes toDay).

    I have highlighted the wagon in orange to denote that the threshold for a soft lynch has been achieved thus far (in case that's not obvious).

    This will likely be the last official votecount, unless I am able to get computer access at close to day-end.
     
  8. Delphine

    Delphine First Year

    Joined:
    May 12, 2014
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    21
    Location:
    Automerge Hell
    So I don't know that a Prophy lynch is a lot better than random, and I might just not sleep cuz idfk.

    Regarding Storm:
    I wouldn't be surprised if Storm is a "like new" player (perhaps played on another forum once and has decided to try us out here after being in obs a while, or has played only on EM or whatever) as opposed to a "brand new" player, just because of some of his playstyle quirks. He still seems honestly earnest and confused in some "like new" indicative ways. I think it's his right to not want to tell us more about him and I don't think it's alignment indicative. The way he sounds to me is like one of my past town games - like I guess the balance of the mysterious style, which he lets his guard down a little (townie honesty spilling out), and the kinds of things he chooses to post I think are town rather than. Just having been in that mindset that I believe he has to be acting how he has, I would lean that he is experimenting with being cagey in a town-motivated way. I hope he stays and that he's able to work out the stuff in his personal life, and if he does stay I do think he deserves a combination of space and pressure, but that if he falls off completely, probably mafia. But yeah, take that for what you will; I'm not willing to psychoanalyze the dude further than that particularly given his situation, but that's my perception of him and why I hate a lot of the stances on him in this game.

    I'm really tired and honestly haven't super looked into what he was talking about with Newcomb today.

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:24 AM ----------

    What do you think of dLGN's stuff on the fonti/Newcomb interaction btw? And can you link me NC's most reminiscent scumgame of this game? I want to be able to fully weigh what you're saying, but I just don't even have a scum archetype for somebody that makes some the kinds of posts in this game that Newcomb does - the shark one is an example.

    Do note that Snowvon has a particularly wide range of meta with Rubi, though I suppose the recency still matters maybe? (Am I a Garciaing idfk von's VLA anyway)

    ---------- Post automerged at 04:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:50 AM ----------

    Which game?

    ---------- Post automerged at 04:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:09 AM ----------

    I guess I think Storm has a higher post count and shows more vulnerability than I think he would as scum? Idk? Though obviously not knowing the guy makes it harder to know his capabilities. But that's where I'm at. I slightly like his Rubicon trajectory?
     
  9. LochNess

    LochNess Third Year DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2011
    Messages:
    80
    Location:
    Canada
    I'm back, I'm back. Ended up going for impromptu celebratory done exam drinks and then the night kept going. Reading through, give me half an hour to get through and reply

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:19 AM ----------

    And if anyone is around, can they tell me how to reopen new notifications if I already opened it? I accidentally closed the link and I want to make sure I don't miss replying to anyone who mentioned me or asked me a question.

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:32 AM ----------

    First most obvious thing that is standing out to me- Proph is very close to being lynched and he doesn't even have a vote on someone? If he is town then the only person he can be sure of being innocent (unless he has some power role that allows him to know of someone else of course) is himself... So honestly wouldn't a vote for anyone than himself be better at this point? That just seems so off to me. I know everyone has tons of reads and already has town circles and all, but its day one, I would expect that scum would be competent enough to at least be able to act towny on the first day. I'm really thrown off by this- makes it so much more suspicious- because I could see it as someone who knows they will flip scum trying to minimize reactions with everyone since they know they are going down. Saying they are not sure about anyone and no strong suspicions etc. kind of would help buddies out.

    Still reading over the rest, this one just really surprised me.

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:43 AM ----------

    I can't find the mentions/ quotes but I know someone asked me about Delphine. At first while she was seeming townie, I felt like she was doing a ton of meta reads which I don't necessarily feel comfortable with. First because I have to take peoples' words for those reads because I am honestly not going to go read through game after game. It's just too much. Secondly because I don't think that because someone acted in a certain way when they were town before, and they are acting the same way now on Day 1 means they should be seen as town. I would suspect scum to try and keep a similar play style for specifically that reason. I don't think their posts are going to be obvious and a good player would try and be consistent. They are going to type *Muahahahaha* becausde they are scum. (Okay very extreme and over exaggerated but you get my point).

    The more she posts though, the more I really feel like she is town because she is doing some serious serious analysis, looking for connections and seriously taking a ton of time on this. I'm not saying inactivity is a scum tell (clearly I don't think that as I understand having a life outside this game), but she honestly seems to be trying very hard.

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:59 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:56 AM ----------

    Someone asked me about my vote switching from Newcomb to Snowvon- I had mentioned in my previous thoughts that I felt suspicious of him- so when I realized there was no chance of Newcomb being lynched, and there was a possibility of Snow (at the time) I figured I was more comfortable lynching Snow than Proph so I switched.

    ---------- Post automerged at 10:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:59 AM ----------

    Nope going back to my instincts. Think he is just apathetic town at this point.

    ---------- Post automerged at 10:59 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 AM ----------

    Just mentioning this Delphine because they way you talk about him being scum for his third game in a row makes in seem like you think because he is scum twice in a row , it wouldn't be likely again. As long as Citrus used a random generator, and not his personal opinions on choosing, which I assume is the case, the events are all independent of each other so the first two outcomes have no effect on the third.
     
  10. Citrus

    Citrus First Year

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2014
    Messages:
    49
    I will be on my phone for most of the rest of the day. I have a struggle opening QT's on my phone, so if anyone has any dire questions they should also be directed via PM on here and I should see them (posting them in your QT as well would be wise)
     
  11. dLGN

    dLGN Muggle

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2015
    Messages:
    2
    High Score:
    0
    I'm back and will be around through EOD. Have some catching up to do rq but yeah.

    ---------- Post automerged at 12:58 ---------- Previous post was at 12:27 ----------

    Well you wanted a reaction to your post so I'll share some thoughts.

    1. It's funny to me because I think his comment about votal analysis was also a joke, and missing that is something that raises my suspicions earlygame. Specifically, it's during RVS when everybody is joking around and not taking the game too seriously, so imo you should default to trying to see everything done at that point as in jest. "Foil(ing) votal analysis" is just a hilarious concept to me, as if anybody would ever take those 5 second votes too seriously (though again, I now know fonti has voted partner snowvon in one of her games before so who knows, maybe there's something to analyze in them). He follows that line up with explicitly saying he doesn't want to actually scumhunt for 24 hours, which I think should give you the context necessary to know he doesn't even take what he's doing seriously, so that first line about votal analysis is never a real accusation. Finally he just wants to "fluff in peace", again, supporting a casual/humorous interpretation of his post.

    To not see that worries me and is why I also find Proph's similar failures worrisome. Specifically, I tend to see it when someone levels a joke at a mafia or a mafia's partner and they are oversensitive to the pressure placed on their team. Your gut reaction is to discredit/argue/defuse the point away, when it was never a threat in the first place. I have a hard time understanding what biases beyond one of affiliation could cause you to take that post so seriously.

    2. "Remind him of his failures in his past" lmfao brutal. You're never easy to dislike :p

    3. I do agree with you about his self-awareness being disturbing. It's why I felt (past tense) like every other post from him made me flip my read - it's that unusual. When I get emotive in my typing, it shows in the way I type, the words I use, the lines I take, etc. and it's all very stream of consciousness and unrestrained. Basically, I can be a dick if I'm frustrated and everybody will know it. Newcomb, on the other hand, is expressing a whole host of fellings of paranoia, worry, lack of confidence, etc. but that's mostly because he makes a point of telling you in very deliberate, italicized type. It's very unnatural, to me, and seems to be done for_effect more so than because_cause.

    4. I do agree that, according to where my reads currently stand, he is townsiding/bussing, if mafia. I just don't see him gaining a whole lot of credit for it and don't really understand how that plays to his win condition.
     
  12. LochNess

    LochNess Third Year DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2011
    Messages:
    80
    Location:
    Canada
    Wait Prophylaxis.. you said this:

    "I don't expect to overturn this lynch because, hey, it's font. So when I flip town, make every effort to figure out font's alignment since if she's town she'll have super accurate reads on the rest of the DLP crew and we will win the game. "

    How does that make sense? You're saying that if you flip town, that if it turns out font is town that then her reads are all accurate? How do you feel since you're saying town and her read on you is such strong that you're picked as her main focus?
     
  13. dLGN

    dLGN Muggle

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2015
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    ^town fonti btw

    I don't think you collaborate to lynch nearly as much as mafia. Also if you tailored this post to sound like the fonti I know... evil.

    ---------- Post automerged at 15:09 ---------- Previous post was at 14:23 ----------

    I think you're well-intentioned but you read a whole lot of something that wasn't there in that quote. I don't think it's relevant for game/alignment, but reread that bit assuming that what you thought was there isn't.

    That quote is:

    1. Prior belief regarding his scum game (Feeling somewhat disengaged and not quite natural with some jokes are scum indicative for him)
    2. Current assessment relative to expectation (I actually think he's trying more than I would expect from someone who would be rolling scum for his 3rd(?) game in a row) (Also I assume the "Considering his circumstances, though" bit is consideration for him being on vacation or w/e. Basically, with legitimate reason to be posting less, so the fact that he's still outside his scum range, by her measure, exaggerates the conclusion.)
    3. Speculative conclusion based on analysis (If he is scum, I think he likes his team)

    Also I did a lot of meta-reading of Delphine but I don't think she's done a whole lot of that, herself. You seem to be confusing the details a bit but I think the gist you're getting at is reasonable and genuine so I read that as towny.
     
  14. The Storm

    The Storm Muggle

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2015
    Messages:
    1
    Odd, I have the opposite look on that point. She is keeping her vote on him yet seems to be saying "I am willing to compromise with you". Am I misreading?
     
  15. dLGN

    dLGN Muggle

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    Think you're missing something here, too. It's more a situation of 'while she's wrong on me, don't instalynch her for it - she's valuable as town and if you can confirm her as town, use her and her reads' thing.

    ---------- Post automerged at 15:21 ---------- Previous post was at 15:12 ----------

    You're not. She is indeed extending an olive branch with that post, but it's something I believe to be strongly town indicative for her. So, meta, again, which I should try to learn to rely on less... that's just the kind of feel player I am. =/

    She uses that line when she's town and gets the feeling she may have mistakenly formalled/buried someone and wants either 1. them to come around on a stubborn read and quickly reevaluate (she usually prompts the accused with a "say you're wrong about x, then what?" which is kind of what the "I'm not lynching Delphine" part is, but that she's open to other ideas) or 2. To reaffirm her read when they are unwilling to work with her.

    I think it serves one more purpose that if you ask me about later I'll elaborate on, but not right now. But it's highly towny imo.
     
  16. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    1,243
    Location:
    The Evergreen State
    Prophylaxis (7): Delphine (#18), Fontisian (#51), Newcomb (#126), Rubicon (#129), dLGN (#173), Koalas (#269), Snowvon (#270)
    Rubicon (1): KaiDASH (#116)
    Newcomb (1): Jan (#117)
    Snowvon (1): LochNess (#251)

    Abstain / No Placed Vote (2): The Storm (#174), Prophylaxis (#381)

    ___

    God damn that wagon looks like a miss :/

    I don't like Delphine's RVS vote leading the wagon, especially with her "Proph lynch might as well be random" thing.

    I absolutely buy Snowvon or Rubicon bussing there.

    Town!Proph assumption:

    Prophylaxis (7): Delphine (#18), Fontisian (#51), Newcomb (#126), Rubicon (#129), dLGN (#173), Koalas (#269), Snowvon (#270)
    Rubicon (1): KaiDASH (#116)
    Newcomb (1): Jan (#117)
    Snowvon (1): LochNess (#251)

    Abstain / No Placed Vote (2): The Storm (#174), Prophylaxis (#381)

    Fuck that is /so weird/ that Delphine's RVS vote is leading this. Like... is Delphine mafia and too self-aware to move off Proph here? Or just self-aware enough? Ehgh that's some stupid WIFOM.

    It's weird. If Proph is town then like, where are the scum in that vote? Like... proooobably at least 2 not voting for him? KaiDASH / Jan maybe? And the third somewhere on the wagon. KaiDASH/Jan/Delphine? Ugh that's a stupid team. Hm do I buy fonti/dLGN.... not really?

    fonti/dLGN/Delphine, like, just no. It almost makes sense if you think we're getting totally rolled, but they're so hard-aligned and I know fonti doesn't like doing that, and they look /terrible/ if any one of them flips scum and they're all on Proph, just...

    Yeah if the team is fonti/dLGN/X then I might legitimately quit mafia at least for a while.

    Okay let's try coloring the wagon with my reads:

    Prophylaxis (7): Delphine (#18), Fontisian (#51), Newcomb (#126), Rubicon (#129), dLGN (#173), Koalas (#269), Snowvon (#270)
    Rubicon (1): KaiDASH (#116)
    Newcomb (1): Jan (#117)
    Snowvon (1): LochNess (#251)

    Abstain / No Placed Vote (2): The Storm (#174), Prophylaxis (#381)

    That makes the wagon like, 100% "standard." Scum wagon with bussers mid/late, one abstaining, one probably off in BFN. But ew it's just so easy that way.

    I can't believe we're basically have the game wrapped up on D1??

    Mrgle.
    Prophylaxis

    If you're town, then what do you make of the VC right now?

    Who's your top scum here? Who's pushing you that doesn't actually believe it, and who's staying out of the way deliberately?
     
  17. dLGN

    dLGN Muggle

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    Also I find this to be very towny tbh. It's a real thought I don't would come from a scum who knows that they will flip scum and that her alignment will be all but evident the moment he flips. It maintains his belief that she is misguided and yet figuring her out for certain will take more work down the line, which is hard to suggest as condemned mafia, imo. (I see mafia just maintain their townread on the accuser and plead/attempt to buy their vote all the time - it's specifically making the point that fonti will still be a question mark to everyone)

    I'm kinda fucked right now because I've actually liked some of Proph's content and tone recently. It doesn't seem like many people are around/active today so idk if there's anything to really do now... and I'm not even sure where I'd want to throw a vote otherwise... but ughh.
     
  18. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    OK, full dissection time.
    Lochness is not new. She's been playing mafia here longer than I have.

     
  19. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

    Joined:
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    The Evergreen State
    Deadline's in 1.5 hours, right?

    I mean. I've liked some of Proph's recent stuff too, in that it's very even keeled, kind of objective and musing and that's exactly what he was like when he replaced into two town slots in previous games here.

    I just don't know if I can live with myself if we move off him. Because you have to know he never dies in the night, ever. A lynch here is clean - we either have this game well in hand, or we have to reset hard tomorrow. If we leave him alive... well I mean then we reeeeeeeaaally have to lynch scum toDay because if we move off him and lynch town anyway, we're so fucked.
     
  20. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Unvote
    Vote Jan


    Why is your vote still off in batshit nowhere?
    Why aren't you pushing anything?
     
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