Vote dLGN.

 

You are scaring me.

---------- Post automerged at 08:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:42 AM ----------

We do not have enough lynches to blow a fear kill on you if you're town. Help me read you.

 

/Laughs manically/

 

afk until this evening

---------- Post automerged at 09:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:48 AM ----------

Hi TN.
vote: KaiDASH

 

Driving home today and on my phone for now so I can't verbally berate fonti as extensively as I would enjoy doing otherwise. Don't think she actually believes I am scum but we'll see..
More curious about kaidash's vote - explain? Points for ambition but it's going to take a Christmas miracle for you to lead a lynch on me and I for one don't believe in miracles :^)

Delphine raises some legitimate questions/concerns that I will address in full when I get home in about ~4 hours. In general it seems as though you are reading my current game accurately in the context of my others. I am sheeping a bit more than usual, yes. I thought it would help me read the overall game better but I think I was wrong. I came to that conclusion yesterday as I realized I felt increasingly strongly about proph being town and yet didn't really know where to turn as short of Jan nobody else had been under any significant pressure to react.
That said, you need not be concerned. I am town and am not trying to pocket anybody (I never try to, even as scum).

I'm not quite sure which direction I want to poke in yet, though. Will read and see where things go, if they do, in the meantime as I continue on home. Will respond to Delphine first and then laugh at fonti when I am at my laptop!

Cheers

 

All fonti votes are 100% serious.

 

that's unfortunate XD

 

Official Votecount 1.1
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Prophylaxis (3): Snowvon (#12), Delphine (#18), Fontisian (#51)
Snowvon (1): The Storm (#3)
dLGN (1): Jan (#19)
Jan (1): Prophylaxis (#65)
Rubicon (1): LochNess (#85)

Official Votecount 1.2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Prophylaxis (5): Delphine (#18), Fontisian (#51), Newcomb (#126), Snowvon (#128), Rubicon (#129)
Rubicon (2): KaiDASH (#116), Prophylaxis (#144)
Newcomb (2): Jan (#117), LochNess (#118)
Snowvon (1): The Storm (#3)

Abstain / No Placed Vote (2): Koalas, dLGN

Official Votecount 1.3
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Prophylaxis (5): Delphine (#18), Fontisian (#51), Newcomb (#126), Rubicon (#129), dLGN (#173)
Rubicon (2): KaiDASH (#116), Prophylaxis (#144)
Newcomb (1): Jan (#117)
Snowvon (1): LochNess (#251)

Abstain / No Placed Vote (3): Koalas (n/a), The Storm (#174), Snowvon (#177)

Official Votecount 1.4
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Prophylaxis (7): Delphine (#18), Fontisian (#51), Newcomb (#126), Rubicon (#129), dLGN (#173), Koalas (#269), Snowvon (#270)
Rubicon (1): KaiDASH (#116)
Newcomb (1): Jan (#117)
Snowvon (1): LochNess (#251)

Abstain / No Placed Vote (2): The Storm (#174), Prophylaxis (#295)

Final Votecount:
Prophylaxis (6): Delphine (#18), Koalas (#269), Fontisian (#493), Newcomb (#500), dLGN (#506), Prophylaxis (#508)
Jan (3): The Storm (#483), Rubicon (#504), Snowvon (#509) Rubicon (1): KaiDASH (#116)
Newcomb (1): Jan (#117)
Snowvon (1): LochNess (#251)

Official Votecount 2.1
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
KaiDASH (2): Prophylaxis (#550), Snowvon (#552)
Prophylaxis (2): KaiDASH (#603), Fontisian (#633)
Jan (1): Newcomb (#526)
Koalas (1): Rubicon (#632)

Abstain / No Placed Vote (5): Jan, Koalas, dLGN, LochNess, Delphine

Official Votecount 2.2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Prophylaxis (3): KaiDASH (#603), Fontisian (#633), Delphine (#707)
KaiDASH (1): Prophylaxis (#550)
Koalas (1): Rubicon (#632)
Rubicon (1): Newcomb (#697)

Abstain / No Placed Vote (6): Jan, Koalas, dLGN, LochNess, Snowvon (#679)

Final Vote Count
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Prophylaxis (6): KaiDASH (#603), Fontisian (#633), Delphine (#707), dLGN (#712), Koalas (#727), Rubicon (#728)
Rubicon (2): Newcomb (#697), Prophylaxis (#721)

Abstain / No Placed Vote (3): Jan (no vote placed), LochNess (no vote placed), Snowvon (#679)

_____

How we ever killed Proph after the self-hammer EoD1, I'll never know.

fonti's lock clear to me; knowing Proph is town, if she's mafia, EoD1 and the Jan flash wagon just makes negative sense.

Taking that read into account, by VCA:

There's almost always at least one between Delphine and Rubicon. (1.2)

This looks incredibly bad:

To the point where I almost want to clear Delphine off it. I mean come on now. An RVS vote made on post number 18 of this game leading a wagon at EoD. That's bonkers and if Delphine was scum I'd have to think she'd get self-conscious about it. It just looks so bad for her.

There's almost always at least one between Rubicon, dLGN, and Koalas. (1.4). They pile on with Snowvon at the tail end of the Proph wagon, ~zero chance scum wasn't a part of that.

Jan looks bad at EoD1 for being the counterwagon to a town lynch, but that EoD was pretty crazy, so I'm taking that as null.

LochNess looks like absolute garbage. From mid-D1 to EoD her vote was uselessly all by itself on Snowvon, and then she didn't place a vote at all D2.

The exact same logic applies equally to Jan.

Which makes me think this is more a product of the gamestate and not really a useful analysis tool.

I think the real question is, how many scum were on the Proph wagon at the end of yesterDay?

Bear in mind that if it's less than all three, then you have to think that scum are in:

I'm town, Proph was town, Snowvon's town. So either you think at least one scum neglected to vote at all on D2, or all 3 scum were on Proph.

KaiDASH is being way too much of a shitgoblin to be scum. I've already lost the game if fonti is scum.

Therefore I believe there are 2-3 in {Delphine, Rubicon, Koalas, dLGN} and 0-1 in {Jan, LochNess}.

Rubicon looks pretty terrible as the counterwagon to town and the last vote on a town wagon.

TL;DR Rubicon is obviously mafia can we please just kill him now?

Vote: Rubicon

 

sooo all of that looks at nothing those players have said or done all game short of how they timed their votes compared to how a hypothetical scum / scum team would vote?

you're kidding, right?

 

WCA isn't the end-all-be-all tool that some make it out to be, but it's a powerful tool.

How much do you want to bet that this conclusion...

...winds up mirroring reality pretty well?

 

Your continued anguish over Delphine's RVS vote leading that wagon seems particularly laughable/fake when you nearly attempt to clear her in the same sentence.

Can you not think of a single scum motivated reason for fonti's push onto Jan? Because there certainly is one.

---------- Post automerged at 15:58 ---------- Previous post was at 15:52 ----------

So you're saying the 3 Mafia are within 6 players. There are 9 alive. You exclude yourself, obviously. So you've cleared 2 players - fonti and kaidash (coincidentally both are voting for me at the moment and I know I town and furthermore fonti has defended you but that's for when I'm home). That's not a very unlikely proposition from your perspective.

 

It's not "anguish." I'm saying it's a bad vote and it looks bad for her. I'm also saying it "looks bad" in the way that town things sometimes look bad, and that for the same reason and way she talked about her player-interaction chart, it kind of falls under the "she knew it looked scummy but she did it anyway" heading.

I really don't know about Delphine. There are bits and pieces I townread her for, but the overall vibe I get from her posts is like "giant smokescreen." I dunno. She could be scum. Gun to my head she's town though.

Not one that makes sense to me, no.

 

Actually that's a good question - you're entitled to your own reads and all but you're using this joke analysis to lightly direct scum in a certain general direction and ignoring the fact that your two lock clear towns are voting for the same
person, who you also could see as Mafia. Why not be productive and join them?

 

VCA isn't a magic bullet, it's a guide. A focus-maker. A place to start looking.

Personally I think looking at the EoD2 vote is a pretty good way to start thinking about possible worlds.

 

Unsatisfied.

newcomb

 

VCA works. I might not be applying it correctly, and we can talk about that, but if you're going to argue that the tool itself is ineffective, you're not going to get very far.

Because Rubicon is obviously mafia, and you only could be mafia.

 

aww fuck, let's make that official

Vote: Newcomb

---------- Post automerged at 16:11 ---------- Previous post was at 16:08 ----------

excellent! so you think I am Mafia? now we're getting somewhere.

why is rubicon so obviously Mafia and not just a 'shitgoblin' like kaidash?

 

Have you played in a game with VCA before?

 

Yes, and Mafia generally cared about it far more than towns. It is what you said - a guide. Combined with analysis of actual content (provided you put stock in it as you appear to), you could probably have the game solved by eliminating interactions that are likely ~never between partners, imo. But you're averse to the latter atm, for whatever reason.

 

???

I don't think that's right.