Unaligned pairs aren't all that useful with experienced players imo.

 

You're right, I probably just wasted literally three hours of my time. Great contribution, really stunning analysis.

 

Hey Rubicon, are you going to attempt to be useful and make a case?

---------- Post automerged at 06:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:40 PM ----------

Actually, if you go into more detail on how causing a no lynch has no scum motivation, that'd be great.

Especially since Newcomb voted several posts before you vote.

 

Newcomb, not everything people say to you is an insult.

fontisian, afaict the only scum motivation for intentionally causing a NL would be trying to save Prophylaxis, who ended up being town? So what on earth would be the point of that.

 

I put a ton of work into something that you handwaved as worthless with one sentence. Felt like an insult to me.

Like. If you really didn't have anything to say about any of that, why didn't you just not say it? What was the point of shitting on the entire exercise without commenting on anything specific about it?

 

very nice post newcomb, thank you. i agree with most of your analysis, as well. disagree with a few small points but idk if they are significant enough to note atm, because I mostly read the posts you linked outside of full context.

at the very least it reminded me of a few things that I said or did earlier in the game that I want to double check on now.

lochness' reads list that is linked in that post is super interesting too imo.

more thoughts to come.

 

Right, last chance.

Reads, do you have them?

 

could have soaked up a few pretty worthless PR uses. I wouldn't have been surprised to see him get seer checked or vigged n1 (doubly bad if both happened). And in the case of (only) the former, that would be super shitty for town, because you'd have to out with only a town check to save him from almost certain death the next day phase.

idk, it certainly wasn't a good thing that we NL'd there, imo.

 

+ no lynch = a possible medicsave doesnt give town another lynch and a possible vigishot costs town a lynch.

Numbers wise sleeping is really good for scum regardless of prophs alignment.

 

Doesn't NL + medic save mean an extra day, though?

Well, it wasn't.

I liked the parts where you said "the way X approached Y seems like they genuinely wanted to understand Y" because that doesn't depend on the WIFOM about X and Y being unaligned.

I'm pretty sure KaiDASH is scum. It's basically just lurk, sheep, lurk, sheep some more, is Jan a mason, and so on.

LochNess is looking worse, and Jan is looking better. Newcomb and Delphine are my strongest townreads. I've liked TN so far but we'll see what he does once he catches up.

 

Do you have any /reasoning/ behind those reads?

 

So looking over my pairs, I think here's where I'm at:

I'm never lynching fonti/dLGN. dLGN reads genuine and fonti trying to swing off Proph onto Jan and then back to Proph just makes so much more sense from a town perspective.

Delphine and LochNess are both in the bucket where I have some misgivings despite townreading them early. Proph flipping town definitely means I made a mistake somewhere, it could be here. I think the crux of my feelings comes from a kind of "crafted" vibe I get from them.

Jan and Rubicon I think could very well be scum, but I don't think they can be scum together. Jan is the more town of the two; maybe I just can't read Jan correctly ever? :/ I dunno. I also think Jan and KaiDASH are hard unaligned because of the PR wink wink thing. Like if Jan is mafia I'm pretty sure that just clears Rubicon AND KaiDASH.

When I re-read for unalignment pairs, it stuck out to me that two times, Koalas responded to someone going "hm this gamestate feels too easy" with "don't worry about it sometimes games are easy" type comments. In retrospect and with Proph's flip I reaaaaaaally don't like that.

Possible teams:

Hm if Rubicon is town I think it's maybe like, one of Jan/KaiDASH but not both, one of Delphine/KoalasTN but not both, and maaaaaybe LochNess?

So like: Jan/Delphine/LochNess
Jan/KoalasTN/LochNess
KaiDASH/Delphine/Lochness
KaiDASH/KoalasTN/Lochness

Except strike that first one because I think Jan/Delphine is pretty unlikely. And I'm not sure how much sense LochNess makes with Jan OR KaiDASH? Those last two are weak unalignment reads though.

Hm, okay. So take out LochNess, that leaves... what? KoalasTN/KaiDASH/+1? Delphine?

KoalasTN/KaiDASH/Delphine. Wait no. KoalasTN/Delphine is super unlikely because of the callout for whiteknighting by Delphine.

Not Delphine, not Jan, not LochNess. ??? But that's everyone unless you put fonti or dLGN back on the table.

Huh.

But that pretty much implies a sleeper scum I think.

Yeah if Rubicon is town, then something is really going over town's head right now, gamestate-wise. We're missing something. Like.... maybe some of the stuff I called unaligned because it looked too convoluted / like performance art is actually scum going the extra mile.

___

If Rubicon is scum his partners are, let's see, definitely not Jan, probably not KaiDASH. Probably not dLGN. Probably not Delphine. Probably not Koalas. And I think fonti's town. Uhh.

Yeah actually so who are Rubicon's partners if he's mafia? Rubicon/LochNess/KoalasTN? Like doesn't it have to be exactly that?

Okay now I'm kind of doubting Rubicon is scum just because I can't really put him with that many teams.

 

If you can't make a team where Rubicon is mafia and can't make a team where he's town, then you probably need to look at your unalignments and reads again.

 

You're not wrong.

---------- Post automerged at 06:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:33 PM ----------

Someone pick up the baton, my brain is fried.

Also massclaim yay or nay?

 

Newcomb.. if you won't lynch dLGN then you believe he is town. If he is town, why wouldn't you believe he is seer and that his check on Rubicon as mafia is true...

---------- Post automerged at 09:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:28 PM ----------

Wait unless like someone said that was actual sarcasm, and I don't see why someone would say that

---------- Post automerged at 09:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:29 PM ----------

Sarcastically I mean

 

Uh. dLGN.

Soooo... Rubicon/LochNess+1?

 

So that was just a joke?

---------- Post automerged at 09:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:33 PM ----------

I'm at a fam gathering so I guess I missed it

---------- Post automerged at 09:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:34 PM ----------

Never mind saw the context of confirmed mafia

---------- Post automerged at 09:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:39 PM ----------

Also maybe I'm wrong but I feel mass claim would not be good at this point.. With a closed set up I feel so many possible roles and then it gives scum too much power.. They will know who town power roles are and can target, and town won't know who is lying?

I have limited knowledge of clsoed set ups and mass claims but that is how I feel it would go

 

It's basically Day 2. No massclaim.

 

I really suck at multi quoting, so just bear with me.

Newcomb.. If here were the pairings you put as scum options:

"So like: Jan/Delphine/LochNess
Jan/KoalasTN/LochNess
KaiDASH/Delphine/Lochness
KaiDASH/KoalasTN/Lochness"


Does it make sense that you posted all these about being unaligned:

"Delphine/LochNess: Can't really see Delphine puling out her chart to whack a buddy. Lochness responds here. Not strong evidence, but more likely than base to be unaligned I think. I guess this could be w/w talk? The read feels a little over-explain-y, or something. They have some odd interactions where Delphine keeps poking LochNess but not really following it up.

Delphine/Lochness: What is up with Delphine's continued "why isn't anyone paying attention to LochNess" thing? Feels weird for w/w.

LochNess/KaiDASH: I buy the frustration in this post; not sure scum!LochNess makes that post and calls out her partner like that. KaiDASH joke followup. Null.


Delphine/KaiDASH: Could see w/w with this read."


And put these as "Weakly unaligned: (gives +town to the other one if one flips scum but NOT clear):

Jan/Delphine
LochNess/Jan
LochNess/KaiDASH
Delphine/LochNess"

It is so confusing..

---------- Post automerged at 10:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:03 PM ----------

And here saying it is going over peoples heads if he is town.. it's the same options you have for scum either way other than Rubicon..

 

lol, i recorded myself rambling about this game for ~7 minutes + wrote a transcript of it because i was trying to get over my kinda writer's block. the temptation to c-p it is so real.

Since...mid day two or so, (until about 24 hours ago), if you'd put a gun to my head and asked me who was scum, I probably would've said Rubicon over Prophy? So I was trying to reread for it but didn't have enough hours in the day. Since N3 there's been a lot of me staring blankly at his posts and c-ping them because lol my brain. Reading his posts did not confirm the gut feeling but rather made me feel like I'm bad at this game.

His posts feel like "the most null shit i've ever seen in my life." He's pretty reluctant to give reasons for stuff and focuses more on questioning and/or nitpicking other people's reads. Deliberately null, sitting back, and reluctant to give townreads when he often likes to lead. I think there's nothing wrong with the reasoning he gave to read Prophy scum or his timing/trajectory with it, but with Prophy having been town, null. While my initial reaction to EOD1 is "...is Rubicon confirmed scum" he's basically claimed technological issues and a brain fade, and so I feel weird reading into it. I need to know more about what he thinks of fonti, especially, and probably Jan. His recent posts are in line with my thoughts.

I really haven't liked both Loch and Kai in the past 24 hours, and my fonti!noia levels are high. Will try to speak to all of that soon. Sorry Jan, god. And I owe dlgn some words too but.

I wrote the following stuff earlier today because it was easier to articulate than the rest.

~

I guess I should point out that I have some off-site experience with TN numbers but it's kinda minimal and I'm not good at reading him there anyway.

I actually didn't realize how minimal Kalas's iso is, I guess just because I've thought about his posts so much relative to how much he's actually posted. If [mention]tn4521[/USER] can summarize what reasoning informed the read wall in #269 that would be good, particularly the fonti and Loch reads. As well as how confident you think Kalas was in prophy-scum on/around the evening of the 15th. (Don't get modkilled though??)

I didn't care very much on D1 that Kalas wasn't explaining his reads in that much detail because he seemed to have an exploratory mindset coming across. I felt like as scum he would feel the need to justify himself more/show his work more/"prove" his towniness by picking a couple of people to really hone in on what he's found about them. The closest he gets to that is with dLGN but then puts him relatively high in his read wall compared to how he was making him sound? He gives more townreads and approaches the game with more breadth than I'd expect the dude to be comfortable with as scum. I do have a bad taste in my mouth regarding his oh so casual "what do we do if Prophy flips town" stuff at EOD1. But I honestly should probably not read into that any further unless what I get from TN actually continues to align with my feelings there. Idk. I tried to ask von specifically about Kalas because ik almost von always has an interesting relationship with him early on (well, von usually wants to kill him and I was trying not to confbias) and it was a little interesting to me how low von was on Kalas's townreads. God, I think von has him in his scumlist but never gave an ounce of reasoning?

dLGN is right that my initial reaction to TN's #737 was "uhh is that slot confirmed town purely by the fact that Kalas has so much content that wasn't what got posted, lol Citrus" because I tend to think of Kalas as lazier as scum. Looked into it, and it's def more stylistically Kalas!town but it's not impossible for him to just be trying to improve his play. There are a couple of questions I could ask TN about Kalas that have answers that I would practically confirm the slot town for but that seems like abuse of the replacement process, soooo : x

But I guess tl;dr I gut townread Kalas, I vaguely like TN's catch-up approach, but it's less strong of a read than I thought it was.

~

god half the thread including Newcomb is telling me that the way he expresses emotion tends to be deliberate regardless of alignment but I believe him

I really hate "I will lose to this person as scum" reads as a rule but I'm still sitting here not able to fathom how someone consistently faking analysis, back-and-forths and emotions of this depth for so long. I don't even agree with a lot of things he's said today but I have never seen someone be this kind of tryhard as scum

the only thing that really skeezes me out about him is his treatment of me (one example- he really doesn't like Kalas for chaining a dlgn lynch to prophy town flip while I felt like Nc's done the same to me, just more subtly). But I kinda get it, and have a theory about it that I shouldn't talk about.