It's New Years and you're drunk. Drink a lot of water, get some sleep and come back in the morning.

 

XD

a little.

 

Mod notes: happy new years!

 

Happy New Years!

Sorry for not posting earlier .. it is 9 am here and i just woke up.

Let's start slow. I pointed it out yesterday and and it still holds true, with Rubicon flipping scum, Newcomb is basically confirmed town.
The way he always had him in every scumcircle, regardless of worlds he built, you don't do that to your partner.
That is no big news for most part, but easy reads first and move on from there, right?


Everyone else is .. meh. the most interesting part is kai. He was the counterwagon to rubicon yesterday.
I will say this .. the way EoD went down with Rubicons claim, kai/rubicon are never w/w, with kai being the possible roleblocker.
In a world where they are both mafia goons, rubicons claim is good to goat out a possible town pr.

The whole thing is not completly clearing for Kai, because the wagon was pushed by dLGN in the first place,who we all believe to be town.


TN being on kai all day looks worst considering the flip, not being around at the end of the day is kinda odd.

LochNess flipped on Rubicon a minute/seconds before i did.


Without going more into it and looking stuff up my order would be :

TN -> reaction to the redcheck + sleepervote on kai.

If TN flips scum, then LochNess is next (you will have to decide between me and him for the most part, i think), because of the sleepervote on kai (that would be clearing kai a lot)

If TN flips town (and to a lesser extend scum roleblocker), then kai is a big questionmark,m or at least not cleared at all.
In that world it is either LochNess/kai or fonti/kai.
That is also the only world i can see fonti as scum right now.

So if we get to kind of clear kai with a tn!scum flip, then fonti is close to clear as well.


I will have to think about those worlds again .. because they might not work out 100%.
Getting some breakfast first.

 

Look at 3.4 again. The interesting thing here is that the no voters are both town, and there are split wagons and no offshoot 1 person wagons. The entire game is taking a stand. I feel like if we hold up 3.4 to the light we can solve the game.

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Also Jan is pretty unlikely to be with TN because the lynch order he just proposed would lose them the game. Scum TN flips which clears Kai and Fonti according to Jan, then even if we lynch LochNess we always lynch Jan in F3.

 

3.4 is interesting but like fonti said there's so much context to it. simplifying it to 'those who voted to vote the 'red check'+bandwagon to reach soft lynch vs those who were sort of following me as I reconsidered and got frustrated with kai, or something.

and then there's the whole I claimed vigi bit, too. so people were following the 'clear'. idk, there are a lot of factors, not to mention activity in this thread for most is low enough to the point where they're around once or twice a day, and timing onto wagon has more to do with when they're around rather than when they're comfortable getting on wagons, i think.

idk. and btw how was I a no vote? i thought I voted and kept switching but it's weird that I was a no vote there.

 

Like .. if TN flips scum, then fonti and kai can't be a team ..

TN having his vote just lying on kai for the time .. not impossible on a partner, but that would mean town!fonti fucked up her read on kai, because she is defending him all game.
Fonti being scum and kai town ..would be possible in that case .. but it would be more likely to be LochNess.

Tn -> if TN scum -> LochNess -> if the game doesnt end you will lose by lynching me. (or i have to find the scum between Fonti/Kai at that point and convince the other one to see the light.



Lynching Kai today .. If he flips town, then TN looks really bad, fonti looks better because her read on kai was right, and noone would have blamed her for killing kai at any point if she was scum and he was town (just because he was just not that towny in general
If Kai flips scum, then we have to take a really close look again at fonti (esp if he flips scumpr/roleblocker)
TNs sleeper vote looks more towny then.
LochNess still goes either way in that world

Lynching Kai -> Kai town -> TN -> LochNess
Lynching Kai -> Kai scum -> Fonti -> LochNess
Here we would lose to a world of Fonti/LochNess, which wouldmean both kai and tn are town.



Fonti is more likely town and a town flip from her would give us nothing.
A scumflip would go a long way, but that is low ev play i think.
Someone tell me if i am wrong on this one. But fonti flipping town would not actually clear or condemn anyone.


A LochNess lynch, while being very good, if LochNess flips scum, i am unsure if we have a lot of information to get from a flip either way.

LochNess town -> scum between TN/Kai/Fonti
-> makes the kai/fonti team look likely
LochNess scum -> TN most likely partner, if TN is town, then finding the last one is roulette.


From my perspective the lynch today should be between Kai and TN, because it gives us a good chance of hitting scum, while also giving hints about possible partners when one of them flips town.



Lynching me is wrong, but you might want to consider what a town or scum flip on me gives us to clear/condemn unconfirmes.
If you are sure a townflip on me confirms the worlds enough to catch the mafia without having another misslynch, then we can do that. but you have to convince me or i will fight it with all i got.
And since I am not completly sold on a team of two (knowing i am town), i don't think me dying would help anyone to clear the game.


Thoughts and/or mistakes in my logic?


TLR :
Either Kai or Tn first if one flips town kill the other.
If they flip scum kill their likely partner in fonti/LochNess.

You lose to a world with 2 of Font/LochNess/myself.
I lose to a world of Fonti/LochNess, will have to look at that next, since it is my only weak point, which i deem unlikely.

 

I may phone post, but I'm going to be out for most of the day.

Lochness and Jan both voted Rubicon after I came into the thread and started pushing the fakeclaim world. I think both as mafia would have reacted to my entrance and the counter claim by bussing.

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I also think tn is just really out there and would maybe be a bit better mafia? Whereas Lochness was taking advantage of dLGN's change of heart to get people away from Rubicon without committing to it.

 

I don't disagree. I'm trying to weigh things beyond the claim/reactions.

Can you all... pick a read rubicon gave (use my multiquote a few posts ago to see everything he said) and argue why it is the worst read / most fabricated read or whatever you want to point out. Whether it is him calling someone mafia for bad reasons, town for bad reasons, a read u think clears a town, I don't care - just analyze a read for me so I can understand how you think.

much thanks!

 

I don't think Rubicon works like that.

 

but surely some things are more fabricated than others. i'm curious what people think.

idk trying to think of a way to prompt people who are underactive into letting me figure them out.

 

One thing that strikes me going over Rubicon's posts is how hollow his Koalas/TN read is:

D1:

^ No mention of reasons here.

Reasons:

Then TN subs in:

Not a TN thing, but I did notice this:

It speaks to Rubicon's mindset at the CC. Like, he couldn't do the obvious thing and push for a Delphine lynch because lol 1v1, also her crumbs were too good. So he was basically forced into pushing KaiDASH, almost regardless of Kai's alignment.

God. damn. WIFOM.

Yeah, Rubicon's good enough to level this.

I think this is a point in favor of town!Kai, just because if you look at the end of his ISO, Rubicon wasn't just making a token effort to not get lynched, he was really really trying. If Kai is scum, I don't even think scum!roleblocker!Kai is enough to induce that kind of effort. Like. The only thing they really need the RB shot for is dLGN's Vig shot, and if the team is Rubicon/Kai/X and Rubicon filps scum, that would pretty much point to TN/Lochness as the third since that's likely who dLGN was going to shoot.

My point with the above is, even if Kai's the roleblocker, I'm not sure I buy that level of "trying to not get lynched" if the only thing that can happen if he succeeds is that his partner gets lynched instead.

But, yeah, it's WIFOM for sure. Because it could be "well, if I push this hard enough, no matter which one of us dies the other will be clear."

Soooo I can't outright dismiss scum!Kai here.

Getting back to my main point, I do think Rubicon's progression on Koalas/TN is pretty damn suspicious. It's like - "oh Koalas is UTR, he's mafia." Then it's like "oh TN's reads have depth, developing over time, they have weight" or something, which, first of all, is like - not even correct. TN's reads do not feel that way to me at all. If I'm mafia Rubicon and TN's town, I personally wouldn't make that post. It's taking TN out of the pile of people I can push on, when that pile's pretty damn low - he already "cleared" Delphine, he was sorta making handwavy stuff towards flipping on me but he likely knew he could never make that happen, he'd already cleared fonti, etc.

Like. The pool was so thin. Where could he move off KaiDASH really? Jan? My point is, if TN was town, TN's opening had plenty of stuff to scumread him for, and instead he townread him for basically nothing.

 

Hello all, just back from my NYE winter wonderland time.. Will be on for a while with more detailed posts explaining this, but first I got asked my two main scum reads.

A) Not a scum read- but I think KaiDash is town.

B) TN I think is scum. Will explain more in my detailed post but just need to let all know I am here.

C) Jan I was sticking up for and feeling he was town and looking back I feel he started joining with me doing things- sort of lumping us together closer to the end of this game. I now have a gut feeling that he is doing it to either make us seem connected if he went down to save his partner- or to make him look better if I am lynched and then show up town. He is the second person I would want to lynch.

I will post more detail shortly, working on it now but wanted to at least get something out.

Also Rubicon posted a wall of reads like two minutes before he was going to die. He was already going down at that part so the repost was obviously to stress it for a reason (knowing that we would be rereading it knowing he was mafia a few minutes later). I feel at that point he was not trying to save himself and is trying to make us have a certain mindset coming out from it. I know he posted that he thought I was scum in it and I think it was to look like he was distancing himself.. reverse psychology type stuff. Okay let me pull all these things up for a more detailed read.

 

When most of your reasoning is 'x wouldn't do y as scum' I simply laugh you off.

 

No no no I take it back about Jan. I don't think he would have pressed so hard for a lynch instead of doing the plan if he was mafia. He would have went along with the plan because people were considering it. He was the one saying it was a horrible plan and pushing for a lynch.

 

Feel free to do some reasoning of your own, then. Or, you could just continue to be useless, which will most certainly get you lynched. That's fine if you're mafia, but if you're town I'm afraid I'll have to yell at you a bit after the game for essentially losing it for us.

My point is, I may be completely wrong, but I'm actively trying and my thought processes are out there for everyone to see.

Hey remember when I did that huge unalignment pairs post and someone shit all over the whole thing with one sentence? Oh yeah that was Rubicon.

Contribute or get lynched.

 

So I take back about the linking- just a coincidence. I think Jan is town still.

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Isn't everyone who is figuring this out guessing if people are mafia because of their actions? I think they are mafia because they did this. It goes both ways. Yes it can be reverse psychology and we can go around in circles but you need to try and guess who is mafia and town by what they are saying/doing..

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Also in my first post I forgot to say:
Vote: tn5421

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Rethinking Kai and if this was just a serious strategy...
Or if someone who is townfirmed basically is playing everyone. That opens too many doors for now. So relooking at Kai and his following of Rubicon since the beginning as an elaborate plan. Don't want to lynch him today though.

 

Then there's a huge gap where you don't really talk about me at all for like 2 game Days.

Then after you bite down hard at the Rubicon red check, and I call you out on it, you post this:

Which makes me think you turned around on me, but it wasn't a push, because soon after that, you posted this:

Soooo... like, explain your progression on me.

 

I started out voting for you originally because like I said I didn't like the line about easy game let's lynch these people and that's that. I took it off, and then I didn't talk to you for a couple of days but I think that was also when I was at a ski chalet and didn't get to talk to anyone really?

By that point you had posted a lot more and from further reads you were acting incredibly town to me.

Then you posted all of that other stuff- I replied with what I think didn't make sense or was weird. It wasn't a push because I still think you are town, but just because someone is town doesn't mean all their thoughts are correct. So I replied saying what I thought didn't make sense. Pointing it out not to attack but to collaborate in. Agreeing someone is town doesn't mean I agree with all opinions.

 

Hnnnnnn.

I kinda think LochNess is town again? :/

Help.

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Except then what, like Rubicon/Jan/TN? Rubicon/Kai/Jan?

Kai/Jan would be so fucking weird with the whole "wink wink Jan are you PR" / Jan going off on him for that.