Dude, this isn't your first game. Not by a long shot. You know what to do. Solve the game.

Are you seriously saying you're not pushing anyone because you don't want to get accused of tilting?
IIRC the only person who said that to you was Jan, in D1, and he was overreacting.

Either way, don't let that stop you from hunting if you're town, because all it's doing atm is making you look a bit overconcerned about how you're perceived.

 

This is some heavy duty wine but the bolded thought is probably more likely to occur to beru as town.
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Yes, because it was at 5 minutes to deadline.

I have mixed feelings about CFDs, because I have to acknowledge that they often work, and arguably they're optimal town strategy because you get to see one person's reaction to being almost-lynched and then switch to a scummier person. But we always come so close to no-lynching.

That's who was on the fluff wagon.

I was trying to work out who was the driving force behind the switch to fluff. The first votes, including Fable, came in a 1 minute span, followed by a gap, followed by me and Jan jumping on and Fable jumping off.
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Asmo, does Fable switch to GH like that if they're the team? I suppose he could, if he thought GH was definitely getting lynched. But he'd have been smarter to stay away and hope for a NL.

 

Mountainous Mafia #2 Votal 3.2

GH [2] - Fable, Miner
Asmo [1] - Beru

Not Voting [5] - Asmo, Delphine, GH, Rubicon.

With seven players alive, it takes four votes to soft-lynch and five votes to hard-lynch!

Day Three ends on September 22 at 3pm PST.

 

Asmo:

At what specific point did I reach the top/bottom/bad side/etc of your personal POE?

Extra credit: Give me a different answer besides Fluff's flip.
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Why did you specifically say this to Fluff after he popped in right at EOD2?

 

I don't really hate him. fluff is actually fun to play with usually.

Just got irritated in the moment with him making those kind of posts. Then I saw his other "but I'm town" post and was like, yeah, this is not how town reacts.

 

Nah, I guess we'd lose because you refuse to be a useful person when you're up on the docket, or perceive yourself to be?

I was waiting for you to do stuff first but I guess you're being a salty twit so this is the point where I say that I'm probably not actually going to lynch you, ever.

Is that sufficiently motivating enough to get you to actually play?
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Tfw thread is frozen.

If you're waiting for my Asmo thing, I'm dead tired from 3 days of school/work combos in a row and can't handle it tonight.

The tl;dr is that it looks like he's trying to force it, tho? Like. It's notes about posts, not thinking of the reason why people are making the posts. There are some that are good like the analysis of 409 but then it's followed by the one of 414 which feels extremely confbias-y. It feels like you decided on Fable/GH already and then wrote these observations? Not to mention the lower half of the post where you try to set me against GH. Lol.

446's analysis is like, soft defending gives you town points especially when you know both of them are gonna flip town and you're gonna vote them anyway which is being proven by you saying that shit. 518 is ok on the surface and thanks for finding this post bc I can write about that too but the way you assess it isn't... thinking about the bigger picture. Like, Asmo, how much do you think about witch strats? Do you only assess the moves Black would make when it's your time to play it? 801 is a solid post, and Fable's conclusion is correct, imo. It's also why the Fluff CFD was a stupid ass idea and I'm a fucking idiot.

This is the point where the post goes into Beru Witch Tinfoil Hell and, tbh, I've hammered myself sending town into LYLO after calling the entire team and their plan before and if you really want me to, I'll do it again.

Oh shit, I actually wrote a long post. Apologies if this doesn't make sense, all I've had time to eat in the last 48 hours is like a poutine, some souvlaki, and two muffins and I'm going to McD's now.
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That post looked longer in the mobile editor. Tfw.

 

Back. Got home a couple hrs ago but other game had started so I'm officially multitabbing (that game has 48/24hr phases)

Tired, but gonna be at a lake from early tomorrow and may not have service, so I'ma finish the posts from last night and hopefully reassess everyone during/after I finish

Kk reading up first

 

Why would you hurt yourself in this way.

 

I honestly have no idea. Maybe I have self destructive tendencies? I've been looking forward to that game since before I started this one (I think, it feels like it's been so long now that I'm not entirely sure). I even helped fill it (and questioned myself about whether I even wanted it to start while doing so)
Oh well, it's on now so I may as well make the best of it. Luckily the next 46ish hours are D1 there, so I'll be able to focus on this for awhile longer. Also phase ends being 10PM server time means that even when EoDs overlap I should be ok to be at both.
Ok enough talking about ongoing games lol thanks for asking though, concern is appreciated rn

 

Don't die.

 

@Beru if you're here, can you explain "confirmation bias"?
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I won't! I get to spend a lovely day at the lake tomorrow, remember? Granted I'll probably be running on 3hrs of sleep and will be bbqueing most of the time, but it should still be a bit of fun.

 

Confirmation bias = when you already have some hypotheses so you go looking for evidence to fit it, when you should really be doing this in reverse. It's possible to do this subconsciously, it's fine.

... but you can also, like, want to push an agenda and use the magic of People Just Saying Shit to mould the world to whatever you want? In that case, it's just something that looks like confirmation bias.

I think it's the latter rather than the former which is why I'm voting you, but, uh........ it's..................... possible to do it as town? When you're desperate for a solution and searching for anything, you end up trying lots of shit.

I'm also voting you because I wanted something interesting to happen but fucking nothing is happening and we're dying of dehydration in a frozen desert

TBH if you were up for it I'd tell you to do some type of analysis for all possible pairs but. uh, time is a thing. 38 hours, to be precise.
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Like, I thought even wolferinos would be like "oooooooooh, Beru voted for Asmo so spicy that kind of thought ~never comes from town~ let's murder a bear" but even THAT didn't happen which is like, what the actual fuck.

 

?
I don't think it was a specific point. I think I slowly started to realize that I was carrying a townread on you based on little more than feeling that you had a similar approach to me and therefore were trying to solve. I think at one point sometime last phase I realized that you hadn't really made any unique pushes and got a feeling that you were just going with the flow of thread. I think that was around when I said something like "I'm tinfoiling my townreads" (I was talking about you). Also, later on, when I said "I'm feeling something spicy" (or something along those lines) yesterday, I was considering a lynch on you but decided I really wanted to flip miner/fluff first.

So I guess I don't know exactly when you reached the "bad side of my personal PoE", but it's easier for me to remember the first thing that made me be like "huh?". At the start of last day, you pushed Beru in like, the easiest way ever about her "wall", and made sure to share your reason "I wanted to see if you had it" or something along those lines. Then, as soon as she responded, you said, "Anyway, like, are we getting on Beru for being wrong? Because that seems to be the main case on her at this moment and, uh, a lot of us could be painted with that same brush here.".

Which is fine in sentiment, but the combination of the weird question and then saying "we" when you weren't getting on her struck me as odd and a little easy. Your push on Miner later also only came after three people commented on the same thing (I think it was Fable, Delphine, Beru, in that order). That post was ???, but when I saw enough people pushing him on it, I asked him to explain a different part of the same post. Then you came in bit later with your case. Did you feel that enough people hadn't already responded? Idk, it just feels like you saw an opening for another easy push and jumped at it.

Like, if I'm wrong, I want you to explain to me why. I keep trying to figure out your mindset, and I keep coming to the conclusion that your posts are designed to make you look good rather than actually solve the game.

Another thing: you've said that you're different this game because you intentionally wanted to match sitemeta. Why?? I don't get that. Like, if you're town, then the approach you normally take to solving the game is what's going to work best for you. Why intentionally try to be different? I don't get it. It makes sense for scum to try to match sitemeta to avoid drawing attention to themselves, but why do it as town?

What were you trying to gain from this question? Does Rubi saying "I hate you" to that quote ever mean anything other than frustration (or feigned frustration) at Fluff randomly appearing literally 10 minutes to EoD?
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I know what confirmation bias is. I responded to your post earlier talking about why exactly this is the opposite of confirmation bias. Going into reading with a preferred lynch and then coming out with an entirely different order is not confirmation bias.

I don't even see it looking like confirmation bias, but I will grant you that I was dead tired (like, totally dead it was like 4 or 5am) and had come to that conclusion after reading for a long while, and THEN hurriedly tried to put my reasoning down on paper as to how I came to that conclusion, so it may be possible that my post commentary focused on the world that I was seeing after reading, and therefore didn't accurately convey my train of thought.

To bolded: I think the scumteam is probably just happy to let us fight it out without getting involved in the hopes that it might get them out of the PoE.

as for pairs, I would've been able to answer this a lot better last night as that was all that was going through my mind. I might get back to you on it tomorrow night but all I can really hope for tonight is to be able to finish what I've got and get to bed before 5am
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oh, and WHY, PLEASE, WHY are you clearing Fable?
You're making my worst fears escalate, only to slap them down again by being Beru, but it's still nagging

please explain this. you can also choose to do it later if it's for a reason, but by tomorrow night I want some sort of explanation for your read on him
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@Beruru
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I hate that xenforo merged my GH post with my response to Beru.
hate.

 

This is a fucking beautiful sentence. Y'all learning fast. (eyes emoji intensifies)

I'm clearing Fable because otherwise he'll be completely useless as whatever alignment. Dude has mafia induced PTSD on a hair trigger based on a meta from another site that doesn't even apply to this forum that throws him into flashbacks when he gets even 1 suspicion point.

Yup.

That's it.

.

...

.....

....... aren't we missing Delphine? Has she posted yet today?

 

ohhhhkaaayyyy.....

I'll work with you on this for now. FABLE CLEARED BAM WHAM MAGIC
Hey @Fable you are no longer under suspicion BOOM

Now like, come sip on this magical fairy wine with me and solve the damn game.

Yes we are, and no she hasn't. I went back through her posts last night and still like her pushes on GH, maybe even moreso now that I agree with them instead of just liking the approach. Do want her input on the phase so far though. I hope she gets hungry for Supermacs soon.
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If I ever want to replicate my experience of playing on DLP after this game, I'll just wait until 2am and then start a conversation with Beru.
#sorrynotsorry #thetruthhurts #threadtempabsolutezero

 

Serious spicy votes time.

Vote: Rubicon

Too bad, Fonti can't stand behind you to make you post this game....

Musical note emoji, not following up on questions, musical note emoji, you should fight Asmo again, that would be fun.
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Tbh... if you're mafia, this is hilarious, because in WH9 I ended up having long conversations about nothing with dC and Kai in the middle of the night because we were the only ones up.

... and they were the wolves.

lol.
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Hi, if you're town and NOT named Beru or Asmo you should fucking do a thing btw, ty.

Like, you can't all be wolves? Some of you have to be willing to do shit. Come the fuck on, let's play mafia!
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P.S. - If for some godforsaken reason any of y'all still think that I'm a wolf, you're letting me control the thread. Both lynches so far have been led by me, and I'm one of like maybe three people seriously posting.

If even that isn't enough to make you do something... the only explanations are that you don't care if you lose or you're mafia. If you seriously think I'm mafia, you gotta pick one of those two options. That's it.

Do something!
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Like, I dunno if y'all know this, but Mafia is a team game. We have to work together, y'all.

 

I spent literally all day yesterday getting lost on the way to and from a doctor appointment in another city in which they refused to actually see me. That sucked.

However, it finally occurred to me to download the thread to my phone while I had brief wifi. Only problem is that it's really time consuming to quote/link things.

I'm glad you wrote this post. The main thing I took from it is that you're basically saying that what I'm noticing as "off" about your play is actually "off" regardless of your alignment, but ofc explaining how it can come from a town perspective. Makes me feel saner.

Having reread the entire game for you, I believe you that you decided pregame to focus on giving that kind of thought process - feel this is evident by this bit in your second post (among others)

However, there's some odd tonal things that are jumping out at me still:
- "So my plan was to give out scumreads to both Jan and Asmodeus (I'm familiar with both of them <snip>) for coming in and kind of lazing about and not really dropping any reads down or advancing the game forward."
-> There's a scripted feel about "plan[ning]" scumreads, despite the in-depth explanation for what changed the read. Just makes it sound like your actual thoughts on the game are divorced from what you're giving out - am not sure why I didn't notice this D1, probably would've gotten more out of asking about it then.

- "But hell with it, I'm in a good mood tonight - I think I can read you well and I eagerly await the opportunity to try out my hypothesis."
-> This one's weird to me since you're going to bed by the end of this post so being in an optimistic mood about solving Jan, relative to what you'd actually discussed in relation to him, feels overexplainy/irrelevant/thrown in to sound town. I am wondering how deep the hypothesis went - to what extent was there a strategy you had at that point for getting a good read on him?

I don't mind the setup of your first test for fontisian in light of your Eido mindset. I still don't feel good about the way it was explained afterward; feels measured/conciliatory (x.

Robotic tone here makes more sense Eido-style (~I'm forcing myself to discuss this for the sake of it~.) Although, I'm wondering why the "bad post" concern sorta...disappears as a result of it not being a defense by Beruru? Like, it sounds like w/e your light town lean on Fable was superseded concern over a bad post, at a very feeling things out stage of the game.

In response to fonti asking for town meta evidence of you explaining things to sound town, you said:
"The explanations are sort of part of it? My meta's generally been gearing away from doing it lately but I feel like I'm more inclined to lead into what I'm getting at as town and just fire off the conclusion right away as scum.

I'll assume you want links and I'll start looking for an example in the background but I'd rather stay live with this thread and comment on other things in the meantime."

Which is spicy in that there's no reference to you intentionally changing up your play this game at all in the direction of doing that. I can think of alignment indicative reasons in both directions for that, but would prefer to see you speak to it yourself (if willing) before I dive into that.

There's several posts mid-to-late D1 that give me an impression of kinda...forcing yourself to be engaged? "Hey, let's talk" @ me/Rubi + talking about who your top towns in wall want to lynch seems rly weaksauce compared to Anniversary Fuchs.

Gloating about mislynch? x & x .

I would like more of an explanation for why Fable's fluff push D1 was reason to "look elsewhere" (x ). The "Fable also knows I can't ever 100% clear him after previous history so hopefully he's content with this." bit seems overly conciliatory and out of place.

Omg the miner case actually sounds super Eido-y. I think I like that, and I think it makes this less likely a bus, cuz seems more dangerous to go all - in Eido when you have partner TMI.

I do think it's important in and of itself that you do appear to be doing your best Eido impression, even though no one actually in the game that I'm aware of was expecting you to*, that playstyle makes Eido hate himself as scum, and you seem to have kept up with it in spite of being scumread for it.

The way you've used the style is more or less like I'd expect from scum - reasonable on surface, but tonally off in a lot of places due to the nature of it. But I'm not sure you even would use it as scum - it's, in theory, very protown -- but as you're not interested in discussing self meta this may be an impasse.

*Although now that I think about it more, you had a larger impression pregame than I think is true to DLP that Eido style /is/ the meta. So... I tend to think you would see it as part of playing on DLP and dive in with it anyway.

I don't think it substantially changes my overall read, in any case.

Regarding GH partner equity:

-> GH/beruru- On his end the townread seems more like TMI that I struggle to follow than defending a partner. Aside from me just feeling like he believes the early posts he had about them, these real-time defenses EOD1 felt off the cuff in a way I think it's less likely to if w/w. This early D2 read feels legit too. Beruru's read on him has been mixed I think but fairly MOR? Will check how much they mention him relative to others later - in their words EOD1, "has slid off the back of my mind." I've no real opinion on their read on him in this wall . Notably not in their lynches pre-F5 lylo on D2 or where I'm caught up to on D3.

GH/miner- I've never seen miner tr a partner and he's never tr GH; GH had a weak tr on him for "doing his own thing" early but fully pushed him for a mindset slip D2 (possibly felt forced to bus.) I think they could have dramatized fighting more on D2 if partners and I'm not sure miner mixes up Asmo with GH if he knows for a fact their alignments are different.

-> GH/Fable- I'm surprised how much they've ignored each other and I feel they've given each other multiple kinda odd weak reads. But it's like...TWTBAW, partner-style? I thiink it may more be that GH is scum and gives weird reads on Fable because he's scum, not because partners. Could be a tactic by Fable to subvert the heavy busser meta either, but??

-> GH/Asmodeus- Path to victory here is basically thru Asmo staying out of the PoE. Both TR each other D1-D2; Asmo has recently and strongly flipped on GH and tied him to Fable. GH has a sorta self conscious expression of his Asmo town read here. I feel like my only real reason not to believe this one is my individual read on Asmo.

-> GH/Rubicon- I really really liked Rubicon's end of the interaction around them discussing Jari possibly mindset slipping on D1 and feel like that'd be less likely to come off that naturally if they were partnered. "I could do GH in a pinch" EOD1 was bold too but Rubi is good with that kinda thing. GH basically choosing not to read Rubicon D1 is uhh spicy. They've had some odd play w/r/t GH tying Rubi so hard to fluff & Rubicon flipping on his previous fluff read to lynch him over GH.
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@Miner I still need a followup to this that's better than ~words are bs~. Tell me more about what you were thinking w/r/t fonti and the test.

"Fun fact, if I were scum I would've 100% self-pres-ed onto either fluff or GH."

Sell me on this.

"Also second fun fact if I were scum I would've never shot fonti or Jan, because they would've been able to defend me better than I could myself. Don't believe me?

See RWBY."

Can I get 1-2 sentence summary of your point? Didn't follow that one closely.
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Please do anything but go full choleric. It hurts to read and I can't get anything AI out of it.

If it helps at all, I think you're my closest to a "wanting them to be town" read. You had a good D1.

For some reason your post count seems higher than your actual thread presence and I'm not sure what to make of it.
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I didn't feel like you led the Fluff lynch?

Trying not to take offense to the ~ur not srsly posting~ bit.
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Uhhh did all that post twice? If so I am so sorry.
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My diet is restricted such that I can only actually eat fries there ;_;.

 

Sorry, my thing was directed at the entire thread besides you, tbh. You obviously can't be here because of your IRL situation. Nobody else has a meta-alibi and I wish there was some way to like metaphorically spray the thread with water so everyone would jump three feet in the air and run around. I've been trying, but I guess the part that makes that not work is the part where I admit that that's what I'm trying to do. Rip me.
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If we're going to be technical, nobody really did, but my vote swap.... was what gave it wheels, at least fmpov. If I had stayed on Miner, GH would probably have been lynched.

 

Welp, gotta go home to meet the maintenance guy. Hope I can get to a computer later to do isos.

I miss Jan.

 

CONTINUATION:

I would get this as an explanation for not voting at EoD, but using "I wasn't confident enough in the read" to explain not pushing someone is backwards. The whole reason you push is to get the info you want. It just feels off, and is the kind of halfhearted "I thought he might be scum but wasn't sure" I think comes from a wolf talking about his partner.

I mean, I could be wrong. I would think that a wolf as good as what people say about you would at least interact with his partner D1, which you only did with GH twice (both times in response to things he had said, once in response to a question GH had thought he was asking to Beru).

Has @GeneralHankerchief gone into detail as to his Rubi/Fluff pairing yet? I'm noting the "if Fluff is town then Rubi town" clear as well if GH flips scum.

soft defense of Fable. Could actually stem from his Fluff scumread though.

Ok so my issue with this is that Delphine was pressing on a good point. She said, "I find it weird that you specifically took time to state that flips would help you read me D2 and then didn't seem to take flips into consideration." and this was your response.

Like, I understand the spirit of "I'm not gonna to force something because someone is pressuring me to", but I guess I don't see how it fits with you volunteering to answer my question on your thoughts on Delphine. I had asked you about her, then rescinded my question, then you asked if there was a reason you shouldn't answer (as if you wanted to). You then said nothing had really changed and reiterated your read. Why beat around the bush if nothing had changed? Why tell Delphine you were being pressured?

One person saying GH is playing differently

made me find:

Two people saying GH is playing differently.

Now, we already have an explanation from GH. He intentionally changed his style, as town, to better fit in with sitemeta. So let's consider:

I just wish his response here actually hinted at intentionally changing his style.

Two things about this post. First, the way he mentions his plan to give out scumreads indicates he spent some time thinking about how best to enter thread/approach game (as well as reading thread in its entirety to come to the conclusion that Jan and I had not been advancing thread). Pair that with his comments about intentionally changing his meta to fit in with sitemeta and it starts to betray a level of premeditation not normally found in town players. It could be true that he had truly thought all this out given the new site and all, but I have a hard time believing it.

Second, he says that the reason he wanted to give scumreads to Jan and I is because we were lazing about and not advancing the game forward, but then fails to notice that I was the one who asked the question he responded to in the second part. Odd, but not awful by itself.

This I actually like. I think it's less likely for scum to pick up on HF referencing Beru's scumgame and think to ask Beru if HF actually had the requisite meta insight all for minor townpoints. Not impossible, but less likely.

Rubi/Miner probably not w/w given Rubi's pushes on Miner yesterday, culminating in continuing to keep it on him until lack of numbers motivated a switch to GH and the final CFD onto Fluff.

Soft Defense of Miner, but valid point. Miner has fought two village lynches thus far, and that does make him look a bit better.

Do you think GH/Miner w/w? Can you go into how / why? Do you still see Miner being scum after he hard defended two towns before they got lynched, despite him being another option for those same lynches?

Someone mentioned it, so here. His inactivity at EoD wasn't ideal, but he did drop slank somewhat in advance.
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SEPERATING POSTS
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I'll do it if you fight Fable. That would be really really great. Like, it would eliminate so many questions from my mind. Dooo itttt.

That's actually terrifying. I can't imagine you talked to them much after that? I truly hope you didn't choose to repeat their trick on me, but I guess I'll to find out the hard way.

Wat? What two options? If anyone seriously thinks you're mafia, then they can't be mafia themselves.
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^GH quote
I linked the other time he talked about why his meta might be different, but this one is even more lacking of any hint or clue that he's intentionally changing your meta.

@Delphine how does this, what I've quoted above^, consolidate with your conclusion below?
v

I don't fully understand why you all call it "Eido-style" as if it's some separate thing, either. Isn't solving mindsets/intentions/motivations behind every post the only way to solve players? Excluding slips and contradictions, which don't happen above a certain level of play, finding scum comes down to identifying the motivations in a player's posts, and figuring out whether they come from a town or a scum mindset.

solid analysis, and remains fair for each player. One thing, though. As I've said, D2 had me steadily getting more suspicious of him, but I can see why that might escape first judgment if you just go off my lists and the fact that I answered "Probably town, but I think I'm wrong on one of GH/Rubi" when someone asked me that same question.

Probably for the best. Processed meat isn't actually good for anyone, though I imagine Ireland probably has much better standards for the meat industry than the U.S.
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ohhkayy. it's now 6:05AM and I need to be up in about 2.5hrs

fun.
g'night all. I'll be back on tomorrow night after I get home from the lake. Don't know how functional I'll be, but yeah.

Quick tinfoils/GOAT calls:
I don't actually like that Beru/Fable is an option for me, but it is (albeit a very small one). Independently, I have her as town 99.1234% of the time, but yeah. Who knows, maybe I'm tired and delusional, but that pairing is haunting me.