Reading dC AtE feels like repeatedly being whacked over the head with an umbrella.

---------- Post automerged at 10:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:51 PM ----------

dC, we lynch Reg today and he flips town. What do we do with you?

 

I feel like we need to send out a search party for pein. :v

---------- Post automerged at 01:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:09 AM ----------

Also Reg I swear if you cite "but he's a good wolf" as a reason to wolf read me one more time I'm going to strangle you.

 

I feel like AtE might be out of character for town!Regfan? Is this possibly a thing?

 

Lynch me, probably, unless you come up with a better idea.

Like, I'm going all in on Reg being scum at this point. Either I can redeem myself for my super crappy reads earlier or I can finish turning the game into a dumpster fire for town. I mean, if he for some bizarre reason comes to the conclusion you shouldn't lynch me and THEN flips town you're free to listen to him, but I'm unlikely to argue particularly hard against getting lynched tomorrow. Likely what I'll do is call the last scum for posterity and then wait to die :v

 

This is kind of a head-tilty interaction.

---------- Post automerged at 10:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:46 PM ----------

In hindsight 364 is pretty awful.

---------- Post automerged at 11:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:49 PM ----------

Spoiler

Also this is a thing I guess?

---------- Post automerged at 11:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:01 PM ----------

And also this. Which kind of jumps out since Miner has very few interactions with dC?? but I need to reread in context to get a better sense of that. Actually the whole "Miner not interacting with dC" seems to be something of a theme.

 

Stanari, wasn't intended to be AtE, just trying to let you know where I'm at.


Anyway going to start dumping my analysis.

I can plausibly see Zenzao baiting Fable into voting him in Post #337 as something that makes sense with scum distancing from each other. That said the interaction that ensues in Post #348 feels less like that and his Mathblade comparison in Post #392 goes further than what I'd expect partners to do there? Think Zenzaos reads wall in Post #534 points slightly more against Fable being mafia given it'd have meant that Zenzao had 3 partners inside his bottom 4 players. Zenzao's huge wall on Fable inside Post #712 isn't impossible be bussing/distancing but I think overall it's more a point against them being aligned particularly when you add in Fables reaction towards it in Post #734, notable that with scum not having daytalk it's not impossible that Fable was just frustrated/pissed at having a partner attempt to push on him when he was in a favorable position though. Unlike Blab I actually think Zenzao's response towards Fable in Post #760 with the "I'm not going to apologise" actually makes more sense as W/W than W/T there so shrug? Overall I think Zenzao<->Fable points slightly more towards them being unaligned but I don't think it's as hard as a "Never partners" as others do in this regard.

 

My definition of AtE is perhaps a little different than the classical one.

 

Cobalt->Fable and Cobalt->DC are both kind of odd in that he has both as strong town reads but doesn't include either in some of his strong town lists, doesn't really do a lot of elaboration behind either of the reads either. Fables response towards Cobalts claim is significantly worse than what I remembered, he posts acceptance there's 3 more scum in Post #2232 without commenting on the claim any more than that until Vaimes pointed out the issue with his claim (Which kind of means Fable didn't actually attempt to ISO Cobalt and assess to see if there was anything there) in Post #2256 and um Post #2295 it timestamped so close to Cobalts claim that his response means he didn't even read Cobalts posts at all which I think fits more with scum that are just pushing that angle to look good post-flip rather than town assessing the game? Could kind of see Cobalts frustration with Fable in the quoted posts being W/W too in that he'd convinced some townies that he was legitimate and didn't like how that was all being negated by a buss there. Feel like it's a weird way for him to treat a townie that's correctly read him as mafia, not a super strong point or anything though.

---------- Post automerged at 01:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:22 AM ----------

Fables disagremeents with Blab about his town reads on Adult/Waco/Zenzao and his scum read on Cobalt in Post #473 points more towards him being town; less likely he'd attempt to start distancing with all his partners except someone that was being scum read by a lot of players in the room. Him pointing out the issue with Miners read on Stanari in Post #855 and the conversation that plays out from there to Post #859 is also a decent look?

---------- Post automerged at 01:39 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:29 AM ----------

Kind of think DC doesn't come straight out ready to buss Miner in Post #1969 as mafia when he was already universally town read at the time and his continued call out of Miner in Post #1971 is pretty solid, it's weakened by him hard defending Cobalt and setting up to push me in Post #1979 but his Post #1983 again is him focusing on pushing and getting votes on Miner. The way he re-engages himself onto Miner in Post #2056 is kind of ugly and Miners response to it in Post #2060 is kind of weird as is the entire interaction that plays out between them there and I can't tell if it makes them more or less likely to be partners or not? Someone please read from 2056 -> 2086

---------- Post automerged at 01:41 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:39 AM ----------

Would also like peoples thoughts on this after they've looked at that 2056->2086 area.

---------- Post automerged at 01:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:41 AM ----------

Kind of think this post and the attempt to bring up Stanari as the "deepwolf" here is him being a little sensitive that Fables name was the one brought up? Think this post if anything points more to Fable.

---------- Post automerged at 01:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:44 AM ----------

Spoiler

Think the fact that he grabbed quotes for DC rather than most other players here fits more with a 'Try and present original reasoning for town reading a universally town read player'? Reasoning for both reads are pretty bad though.

---------- Post automerged at 01:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:47 AM ----------

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Kind of think Fable makes sense with Cobalt/Miner here, Zenzao is really the only iffy one and even then I don't think they're as hard unaligned as others are making it out to be. There's not really anything with Waco that points towards them being aligned or unaligned. Going to just spend time reading DC & Fables ISO's themselves rather than interaction analysis from hereon out but if anyone thinks there's something that I've missed that makes either hard unaligned with flipped scum let me know. Also someone please comment on that Miner<->DC stuff.

Also a post merge would be nice.

---------- Post automerged at 01:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:50 AM ----------
pienyan if you're around ping me.

---------- Post automerged at 05:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:53 AM ----------

Given up on waiting for someone to break this post-merge. Here's all my thoughts on Fable;

I liked Fables analysis of the Plotness v Jarizok wagon and what it meant on D2 inside Post #1123 and liked that he was able to keep himself grounded on his Fontisian read in Post #1226 going through her ISO and coming out null but can see a path to victory from him in Post #1340 so it's not like he'd ever actually boxed himself into a position where he was actively pushing against a scum win con there. I dislike his stance on the Zenzao situation in Post #1665 and find it one of the less genuine posters in that period? The Miner read in Post #1734 and Post #1738 to where it progresses to end up being and how that happens feels..unnatural; his stance for instance in Post #1986 and his posts and read on Cobalt up until Vaimes pointed out his claim didn't match his play fits him attempting to go to endgame with Cobalt and then a flip to hard push him when it became obvious that wasn't a possibility any more. I think if you look at his Cobalt read overall in the thread before Cobalt had claimed it's one of his most empty reads in the game.

I don't mind his explanation for town reading Blab in Post #2052 at all but how that moves to his stance in Post #2848 and then weirdly how he handles him yesterday feels disjointed. I tried to ask him to elaborate on why he was ruling out DC/Blab and his response in Post #2812 and Post #2814 was very underwhelming and didn't feel like him contemplating that possibility properly at all. Felt like him approaching the game with different information than I'd had and not really putting himself in a town PoV there, his stance in Post #2817 to Post #2825 and Post #2847 I feel doesn't really match what he's said about Blab. In Post #2942 he brings up some really weird/weak reasoning for thinking it's not Blab and the turn around to throwing me back in the suspect pool from there in Post #2944 feels odd as fuck.

I think the confidence level for thinking it's exactly DC/Miner in Post #2970 feels like it's fabricated, if he's town and right there then credit to him for calling it but reading through his posts I don't see how this is something he'd have got to with this degree of certainty. The reasoning for town reading Blab calling him agenda-less in Post #2986 ignores that Blab made that explanation because I'd asked him to take a stance on Fable/DC and the "Do you see Zen/Blab as a team" in Post #2988 and "Blab didn't agree with his walls in Post #2990 kind of comes out of nowhere in that he'd never mentioned their interaction previously nor is it something that really played out like that. His reasoning of "Blab has 3 people in his lynch pool therefore he's town" in Post #3152 ignored me repeatedly telling him scum only need two mslynches to win and I think that's a pretty huge thing for Fable to miss. I think his reaction towards me being skeptical of him and the way he's treated his read on me throughout the past ~2 day phases makes plenty of sense as mafia and gone into my issues with it already.

In summary I still mostly liked his read progressions and reasoning in the first few day phases, the issues I'm having are his Cobalt read in particular pre-claim and Cobalts interactions with him post-claim makes plenty of sense as partners. I think his interactions with Miner and handling of him yesterday and prior to that too also make sense as partners. There's admittedly a bit from Zenzao-Fable that I kind of don't think looks like W/W but not really enough to hard rule that out at all and there's also small elements of that I think do make sense as partners. I think his approach to the game hitting the late end of it (D5/D6 etc) feels different from most others inside the thread in a way that I think comes from mafia more often.

Far from confident that he's mafia here and I probably? wouldn't lynch him over DC (I still need to go through DC and am hoping to have time to do that tonight) and frankly don't think it's even a possibility to get him lynched today. But in the event I get lynched today I really suggest actually taking your time and going through this analysis and considering both Fable and DC tomorrow rather than just power lynching DC or tinfoiling on Stanari/Pie/Blab and in the event we lynch DC and that doesn't end the game would like people to take a serious look at this tomorrow.

---------- Post automerged at 05:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:44 AM ----------

Deadline is in ~15 hours, would anyone be hugely opposed to us no lynching today? If we miss today we'd be doing it tomorrow anyway and doing it now gives us another 96 hours which I could really use here to work this out.

---------- Post automerged at 06:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:51 AM ----------

Yeah, I'm heading to bed.

I'll check on this before heading to work in the morning; if people are really insistent on lynching today I'll throw down a vote then but personally the extra time would help me significantly, would give me time to do a few things I've not yet done in the game. Also don't think there's been anywhere near enough actual discussion this day phase and a lot of that falls on me for being unable to get to the game until today properly, so sorry for that. Now that I've dropped my concerns from Fable I'd like a few people to voice up on that, if they can negate most of those then we can just lynch DC and win, or if they're confident I'm town we can chain them both and win it but otherwise more time is optimal.

 

Dislike no lynch due to scum getting to tailor the living players further to their liking (and nobody seems to care about the NK for analysis purposes so >_>). I think a 4 person endgame has a better chance of lynching Reg than a 3 person one does.

As such, would prefer to get run through myself than no lynch PROVIDED Reg is taken out immediately afterward. Reminder that Vaimes specifically said not to townread him for talking a lot.

Obviously I would rather we lynch Reg, but between "I get lynched and then Reg gets lynched" and "Reg gets ANOTHER 96 hours to slip the noose" I'll take the former. In contrast to what he said, I recommend no lynching not happen at all until the game is over.

 

When you make posts like that I hope you realise you're just making it awfully tempting to take you up on the "1 v 1" offer and shove all blame your way if you're town post game because if you're town you're not stopping to think about the game or what's presented at all. Just sticking your fingers in your ears and going "lalalalalala"; No lynching at 4 is pretty much always the optimal play, I think there's a good argument that doing it today instead of tomorrow might be the better move given more time today is more time to assess and actually lynch scum.

---------- Post automerged at 06:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:44 AM ----------

Can you provide a link to a singular instance ever where you've treated someone like you're doing to me now?

Would be pretty greatly appreciated.

 

Absolutely never! This is easily the first time I've been in this position in a game of mafia. Like I said, I usually die early or get a mechanical clear. Anyway we don't need more time to lynch scum (you), we need LESS time to prevent you from doing your act and swinging the lynch off yourself again. This course of action represents the first time I've encountered sufficiently slippery scum to warrant it.

Like, lemme be clear about this. I am 100% betting the game that you are the last scum and if I'm wrong then I fucked up, fine. But Fable makes no sense as scum with Miner (I will not bother to reference this because you will argue me into oblivion about it because it is necessary for your wincon that Fable get mislynched), blab makes no sense as scum with Miner and has the full confidence of everyone else, and pie/Stanari are town (which you've agreed to)

I mean go ahead and blame me for losing if you're town, it WILL be completely my fault. However, I also think that if you're scum it is going to be goddamn impossible to lynch you without going this far. As such, my choices are "back off and lose to scum!Reg" or "don't back off and lose to scum!Fable". I pick the second one!

Also why the hell is no lynch at 4 optimal? All that happens is the townfirm gets killed. Like, I can see it if everyone is possible scum but even you have to admit there are some people in the game who just aren't at the moment.

 

---------- Post automerged at 07:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:09 AM ----------

You've got a grossly incorrect assumption of what my scum game is like; I'm not a "strong" scum player at all, I'm probably only just slightly better than the average scum player with my strength more being strategically based (Night kills / Fake claims / Path to victory) more than the posting itself. You making the play of "I'm not going to read your posts because you'd trick me as scum" means if you're town you're intentionally playing against your win condition here. I've actually elaborated on and provided reasoning on why I think Fable can be scum with Miner, in fact I think Fable<->Miner points towards Fable being mafia rather than against, it's Fable<->Zenzao that gives me the doubts.

And no lynching at 4 is optimal because regardless of read strength narrowing it down from 25% -> 33% is the optimal play to make, the only time you ever do so is if something is actually cleared at the time, I think there's strong enough logic that say that certain players are never mafia but I'd still like confirmation of such or at least of one of their alignments in a F4 scenario.

Anyway if you're actually going to continue playing like this when I wake up probably will just throw a vote down on you and order you die if I get lynched and just ignore the fact that Fable makes a lot of sense as mafia here because if you're not going to play to even contemplate for a second that I'm town after doing ~8 hours of reading into Fable and interactions and not even actually read them then this game is beyond unwinnable.

---------- Post automerged at 07:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:14 AM ----------

Like there's enough spewed interactions that should be making you at least hesitate here if you're town even if you believe in the "I'm not reading your posts" angle in that Waco attempted to make me look bad re; the Plotless push by getting me to do the dirty work putting the case forward. Cobalt buddied the fuck out of me and then attempted to use me to focus on Pie through that while trying to get me to focus more on Kai instead of Miner. Zenzao attempted to buss Cobalt via linking me to Cobalt to make sure he'd get a mslynch at some point in the game. Miner attempted to use my read on Pie as reasoning to push on me and mslynch me.

There's data to read, information to analyse, you're not doing any of it?

 

See, the problem here is that I already used the EXACT same logic you're using internally...yesterday. When it led me to vote blab over Miner. When, y'know, Miner was scum and blab was town. You elaborated on THAT read too. I contemplated you were town for about half a game day and where it got me was trying to mislynch blab over obvious scum. You can perhaps see why I am not keen to repeat the experiment.

If there's a reason I'm not reading your arguments, it's because my valuation is so radically different from yours that I don't think it would be useful for either of us (random example: Post #2970, I don't think comes off as fabricated at all. Another random example: Post #2814 seems perfectly fine IMO).

Finally, it's not so much you'll convince/trick ME as you'll make a good enough case on Fable BY arguing with me (a considerably less skilled argumenteer in this context) to convince other people to lynch Fable (who I think is town). I'd rather this NOT end up happening, all things considered.

As for your scumplay quality, you're just taking your townplay and bending it a little. It's not complicated, and it gives good results. It's how I managed to get quickly proficient at scum, and I'm seeing a lot of my own scumplay in what you're doing.

Anyway 25% --> 33% is only accurate in a vacuum if everyone's equally likely scum? If you have someone who everyone agrees is like 90% town it's more like 30% --> 33% which isn't necessarily worth losing that player's voice in the final decision OR giving scum additional planning time. Again, valuation differences I guess.

PREVIEW EDIT: Okay let's go down that list point by point.
- Waco asking you to build a case on Plotless is meh. If you get lynched first then it looks like you were scum pushing on Plotless (distracting from Waco's role), and if Waco gets pushed first it looks like he's responsible for your push on Plotless (providing you with the argument you used). This is basically just a win/win scum interaction.
- Cobalt was trying to make the whole thread focus on pie/Kai. Him specifically saying stuff of that nature at you doesn't make you unaligned with him. The behaviour listed is congruent with Cobalt picking a friendly interaction set with you and then you being the logical person to express the pie/Kai stuff to in-thread.
- Zen was being bussed BY Cobalt. If it was a crossbus, then given Zen was the one in poor standing it makes sense for him to link two actual scum together as scum since his death will then discredit this. Further, Cobalt's hard bus makes general scum theater/shenanigans more likely.
- Miner and you were crossbussing D5 because you had no other options because you were both up for lynching. Miner pushing you does not exonerate you.

Finally, your response as scum to me not reading your posts is OBVIOUSLY to try and get me to read your posts. You can't make any inroads at all unless this happens. I feel like as town you'd just write off my vote and work on talking to pie/Stanari/blab. It's not like you need me or Fable to lynch either Fable OR me, and it's not like your only choices are take up the 1v1 or keep trying to convince me of your worldview.

Like, I'm gonna throw out one last thing for town!Reg: Forget about me. Make your cases and do your analysis to everyone else. Trust pie/Stanari/blab to solve between me/you/Fable. And don't get tilted over MY stupidity, I told Stanari before I am terrible at this game. Seriously. Just write it off as that and move on. This isn't the last time you'll have to deal with idiots making it to endgame, and you need a better plan than "try to convince them and then decide they're scum". If you're town. Which you're not. :v.

Anyway, that's it. That's what you get. If you're town, you can win without or despite me or whatever. If you're scum, you can hurry up and die. I think I have hard non-scum positions on everyone BUT you, so I don't see what good further analysis will do me. I don't read Fable's behaviour the same way you do, and we're agreed on everything else.

On top of this, it's completely pointless for me to try and convince you Fable is town because from your POV either I'm scum (and thus BSing) or Fable is scum (and thus arguments Fable is town are incorrect). So there's no point me specifically trying to convince you of my Fable read. And there's no point trying to convince everyone ELSE because they already agree Fable is town. So, really, there's no point talking about it at all.

oh yeah also your position of "I'll just 1v1 you and lose for town" is dumb. You're talking to me like I'm derptown but then proposing an action that is only optimal if I am scum? This makes literally no sense.

anyway tl;dr I don't understand why you think you need me to win if we're both town. There's three other townies who you're sure are actually town and who are clearly much better at the game than I am. This makes a lot more sense if you're scum and went all in on having me on side only to get rudely surprised this morning.

---------- Post automerged at 10:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:56 PM ----------

Like, I want to stress this again: Why is town!Reg still appealing to the person who is probably scum trying to mislynch them and definitely the least likely to change his mind?

---------- Post automerged at 11:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:57 PM ----------

oh also, "this isn't my scumgame" is a trust tell and therefore either useless or kind of cheating.

Like. Either you actually do never play like this as scum in which case you're essentially ruining all your future scumgames since you're instantly catchable in them (and also becoming essentially conftown when you roll town), or you DO sometimes play like this as scum in which case I think this is one of those times.

 

Not seeing dC's plan here if he's scum.
I mean, if he is going for the "not fighting against a reg/dC POE" towncred, then sure, he gets a bit towncred but where does that leave his chances to win?
If his thinking is like "Eh, I'll lose, but at least I want to achieve the Reg mislynch", then shrug, ok.
Reg is doing more for scum!dC by opening "Reg, then Fable", than dC is.

 

Uweeerrghh.

---------- Post automerged at 06:38 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:36 AM ----------

I still haven't done anything, but I don't *really* mind the idea of just lynch DC->lynch Reg and calling it there. If nothing else for DC's sake if he ends up being town.

 

Regfan:
re: 2056->2060
Thinl dC''s post is ok.
I think miner was going for something like "Look at how unconcerned I am about pressure".
I can see that as distancing->reaction to distancing, but also as town->scum so not really AI, imo.

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I am against a no-lynch, the game is already kind of dragging along.

 

No lynch would actually be pretty fine here.

---------- Post automerged at 06:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:46 AM ----------

I kind of think DC is just playing the "go all in on a 1v1" angle as scum to go for a sort of "why would scum play this game day this way". So I'm not really ruling out DC as scum based on his play today.

 

Maybe from a game-valuation perspective, but not from a blab-RL perspective.

 

hey look it's me :v

Hey look you figured out my other motivation :v

also look reg other people are lazy too get mad at them not me =(

 

Against a no lynch here, would be open to no lynching in f4 if we get it wrong depending on who's left.

Reg saying he's spewed while suspecting me is weird? Like his interactions suck for the most part and that certainly isn't the reason I've been village reading him. More that his actions seem disconnected from the rest of the wolves, more that he's been acting on his own a lot if he is a wolf and there isn't a lot of coordination there with other wolves.
I also don't know how to respond to Reg's case on me since kinda just seems to be....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuwMvesrw7w.

Agree with I don't know what dC is trying to do to win the game here as a wolf and I kind of agree with some of his arguments? And Reg not really responding to it is ???. Like it does kind of feel like he's talking to dC like he thinks he's a villager.