Reading dC AtE is like being whacked repeatedly over the head with an umbrella.

---------- Post automerged at 05:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:56 PM ----------

I'm gamesolving but trying not to overplay my hand so you lot don't start tailoring your pushes.

 

Believe you said this already.

---------- Post automerged at 08:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:57 PM ----------

Reading through blab/miner interactions atm, I don't think miner talks to or about blab much or I haven't gotten to that part yet.

 

Please scumread me so I have an excuse to no lynch so I can have a hernia in deadchat instead of in the game thread.

---------- Post automerged at 05:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:59 PM ----------

Yes Fable that's the joke.

 

Don't be gross kthx.

---------- Post automerged at 09:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:00 PM ----------

3157

I feel like maybe this points to not blab because I feel like miner would be a little bit more aware of how a partner was pushing him because blab was very much not V reading miner. I mean it's weird either way but it shows that miner wasn't really paying attention t him much.

 

dC is giving me a headache.

 

like I just remembered that my behaviour at MYLO as scum was always to whine incessantly about how much I hated MYLO

anyway, so: you're avoiding stating your conclusions/reasoning so whoever's scum doesn't get to nod along, that's what you mean?

 

Yes.

/10char

---------- Post automerged at 06:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:38 PM ----------

I mean I have brought things up it's just I'd rather not be telegraphing my leanings too hard right now.

 

Right, no I getcha.

I mean, fundamentally the problem is that all MYLO strategies are NAI (that strategy is also the "scum trying to keep options open" strategy, while the analysis dump strategy is also the "scum trying to look like gamesolving town" strategy). So it's not like it really says anything either way.

---------- Post automerged at 01:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:52 AM ----------

anyway, right now I guess I feel like it has to be Stanari by PoE...it's hard to get past either blab proposing an actual all-town group and Fable doing fable things (and the gladiator thing)

plus the shit with kai was kind of weird

 

This is surreal.

 

No offense, but if we do no lynch I sincerely hope you die :V

 

D2 Miner -> scumbuddies + Fable/blab/dC

Spoiler

---------- Post automerged at 10:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:06 PM ----------

D3 Miner -> scumbuddies + Fable/blab/dC

Spoiler

(note: dC was one of the people engaging in mechtalk)

(Preemptive apologies for the quotespam but it's a lot easier to work with actual quotes than bbcode/etc.)

---------- Post automerged at 11:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:28 PM ----------

At some point I will find the catalyst for this post and it will remind me of the mental contortions it takes to ask your scumbuddy about your third scumbuddy.

---------- Post automerged at 11:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:05 PM ----------

Of note (especially in D2/D3), the fact that Miner pays approximately zero mind to blab.

 

Ok, I went through Regfan's analysis of Fable.
The biggest points against scum!fable that I understand are:

a) Fable interaction with Cobalt
b) Fable progression of reads after Cobalt flip culminating in overconfidence in miner/dC

a) first of all, I can't dock Fable for having an empty townread on Cobalt given that imo all (strongish) townreads on Cobalt were shallow.
Sure I can see scum!Fable wanting to endgame with Cobalt and then bussing Cobalt once he felt like Cobalt was lost, and then Cobalt being frustrated.
Thing is, I think dC looks worse w/r/t Cobalt, I give Fable towncred for not being tempted by the pienyan mislynch after I made it like 8/7, I can see Fable/Cobalt as town/scum interaction just as easily. I don't think Fable not reacting much to the claim itself and more thinking about 5-scum-confirmed is neccessarily scum, though I don't townread him for that.

b) Think Fable taken the Cobalt lynch and arriving via unaligned pairs at scum in miner/dC/blab is ok, though I felt like Reg/Cobalt had things for both V/W W/W.
Think moving me out for weak reasons, is well, weak, but Fable had sort of slight townreads on me all game, so sort of consistent and I can even see where he might have picked up the blab/dC unaligned par w/r/T defending Jarizok if that was the conversation with dC where I was like "Jarizok is obvious town".
Also if I go over D5, dC looks worse than Fable AGAIN, so yeah.
NOt seeing the scummotivation from Fable disregarding me and dC/me especially while he wanted to lynch dC first.
So I don't feel like Fable's progression is too unnatural to be town, in fact, pretty followable if you feel like Cobalt/reg is W/V instead of has indications of both W/W and W/V like I did.
Don't think I am the villager there that Fable is townreading because he needs my vote, because Fable was pretty widely townread and didn't need my vote, so lost more by townreading me, I think?

I guess those two things and the Fable turn on Regfan are the biggest things for Fable-scum?

---------- Post automerged at 03:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:01 AM ----------

just Regfans case in full

---------- Post automerged at 03:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:03 AM ----------

Idk, if Fable is scum and dead people had any hope in Regfans case + Fable yesterDay convincing me, I guess I disappointed.

It's hard for me to see myself getting to a point where I scumread Fable more than dC, and I feel like Stanari is even more town than Fable, so.....

 

Well you certainly didn't disappoint more than me :V

Can you provide your towncase on Stanari, though?

 

Beginning to think we're in a similar endgame situation to WH8 where vira was the last witch and got lynched not because people wolf read her but because everybody else was clear for one reason or another and she had no good options.

---------- Post automerged at 06:42 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:40 AM ----------

Feel like miner and cobalt spewed her quite a bit unless you think miner and cobalt repeatedly call her a deepwolf as W/W.

---------- Post automerged at 07:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:42 AM ----------

While ISOing stanari I've realized like half her posts were all made in the last two days, I have no idea if that means anything.

---------- Post automerged at 07:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:09 AM ----------

Read through how stanari treated cobalt's claim and it's just a lot of "lol I'm confused" but I don't think she ever votes pien or even considers it really. It's hard to read into when she doesn't have a strong stance or really give out her thought process.

---------- Post automerged at 07:33 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:13 AM ----------

Stanari waffles even when busing if she's a wolf which doesn't make a lot of sense I mean Stanari did say she waffles as a wolf but even when busing?

---------- Post automerged at 07:39 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:33 AM ----------
Stanari

Did you ever post any thoughts on the me/zen stuff (I mean at the time, not today) cuz if you did I can't find it.

 

To be fair I like to think if I were scum this game I could have created a better endgame for myself...

also I am totally getting wolfread what are you talking about :V

also also I can buy waffling on a bus...I mean, provided you END UP in the "right" place it makes it look like you've given it thought so you don't fall prey to the TMI argument (i.e. "player X was too sure player Y was scum"). It depends on what form the waffling takes exactly, though. Link?

As for the deepwolf thing, I'm not sure if I rate that more or less likely than blab proposing an actual townbloc. On the one hand this scumteam has been bussy as hell, on the other it is a weird interaction.

Why did they even bring up the deepwolf thing in the first place, though? Like, to sow paranoia sure, but that seems to work AGAINST them since the pool of scummy people contained enough town for them to win that way. Like, when it's me/Reg/Miner on the chopping block, why try and propose one of the towny players is a deepwolf? (assume for a sec you're me and the answer isn't just "dC is scum")

---------- Post automerged at 11:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:56 PM ----------

Hmm...
I mean,
I guess from one perspective, blab is the person who's not cleared by interactions
From another, Stanari is the person who's not cleared by excessive ballsiness (Gladiator fakeclaim, Actual Townbloc)

Both of those are fakeable but traditionally NOT faked, so I'm not sure which one to go with...I kinda want to say the ballsiness one, because I feel like I've already fucked up one interaction-based read this game (Cobalt) (or two if you count Reg...) so either I'm bad at it or the scumteam is intentionally playing around it (or both)

 

Spoiler

Stanari on cobalt after both his claims. I mean she kinda pokes at the idea of going pein instead but never leaves cobalt so I think that looks good overall.

 

Ironically I waffle less when bussing than pushing townies.

---------- Post automerged at 09:17 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:53 AM ----------

Yeah Fable I can't find anything contemporary for you/Zen.

---------- Post automerged at 10:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:17 AM ----------

dC's tone is so genuine and good but also I don't think it's out of his scumrange at all.

Also that Cobalt readlist is like :X

---------- Post automerged at 11:41 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:12 AM ----------

I think I am leaning dC at the moment.

 

It's not like I can't see Fable as scum, it's just if I trust my scum!fable feelings and then attempt to vocalize why I think Fable is scum over dC I pretty immediately talk myself out of scumreading Fable.

I townread Stanari because of tone, because of the D2 interaction which I think comes from town, because she looks actually pretty good with regards to the interaction with the confirmed scums:
Don't think miner jumps on the "fonti votes were scummy reasoning" and also then scumreads Stanari the most of them.
Don't think the interaction with Zen EoD2 happens like that if W/W.
Think the whiteknighting by Cobalt also points slightly more likely to V/W, think the reaction to Cobalt claim is slightly V/W.
Think miner's late content w/r/T Stanari also points to V/W

She was pretty pivotal in making sure the miner lynch happened, and unlike Fable had actually left the door for herself open for a miner lynch.
She also didn't vote for pienyan over Cobalt.

Generally think I can follow her thoughts, though that might be confirmation bias?

---------- Post automerged at 02:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:36 PM ----------

I'll bite.
How?

 

Well for starters I don't waffle when bussing Miner :V. Like, my progression on Miner was to bus them for a bit and then decide "it's reg/Miner" and hop on Reg instead? Not how that works. If you're gonna link a townie to your scumbuddy, it's either to bring the townie down (in which case you bus or ignore your scumbuddy and ignore the townie) or to make your scumbuddy look good (in which case you pick a scumbuddy who isn't about to die)

I don't then jump onto blab WITH Reg and stay on blab until dayend, because that collects a Reg mislynch which is insufficient to win.

I don't hardclear everyone I'm going into MYLO with. I probably don't kill Vaimes. I bus Cobalt earlier and don't welcome his claim with open arms. I probably try to have Kai mislynched, even if I DO know his role. I DEFINITELY don't defend Zen "Sinking Ship" Zao up until he scumclaims (even without daytalk).

I probably put more effort into reading the thread and Reg's cases. I actually back up his shit on Fable and build a questionable read there so I can turn on him at this point in the game. I don't bother pointing out your "correct townbloc" thing. I go way less aggro on Reg and build a mutual townread thing with him (this is what I thought he was doing to ME)

Finally and most importantly, once I get an early townread I cling to it like a life preserver. I don't fritter it away doing ill-advised things like defending scumbuddies who are obviously doomed and pushing lynches on town super hard.

Agree with Stanari my current tone isn't out of scumrange, what IS out of scumrange is attempting the "play idiotically and hope town gives me the win" gambit.

Kiiiiiinda leaning back towards blab? The level of interactions clearing Fable/Stanari is kind of critical mass-y for being faked, and blab made like one or two posts that were plans causing him to lose. That might be the lowest burden there.

---------- Post automerged at 08:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:24 AM ----------

Like, in summary, my townplay has been bad because I've misread people. That happens (happened to Reg!). My scumplay would have been bad because I made a lot of very bad decisions and PoE'd myself, and I think I did this too blatantly for it to be accidental and if you think I did it on purpose then the only possible reason is to argue NOW that I couldn't be scum because I PoE'd myself and pray that town finds another lynch.

I dunno. I think I am better than that :v

---------- Post automerged at 09:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:27 AM ----------

mmmmm
and the townbloc thing was like 1000 posts ago, and he's dropped me out of it by at LATEST post 3184. On top of that, in that post he says he rereads my D3/D4 and agrees with Reg about scumreading me which is ??? given I was being put in a townbloc a few hundred posts earlier. Like, what, he didn't read D3/D4 close enough before but was still willing to put me in there???

I think that invalidates the townbloc as "a plan that would cause blab to lose", and in fact I kind of really don't like that because it makes it look like an ATTEMPT to PoE himself that he then quietly rolls back later in favour of a scumread on me. If there's a big moment of "aha, my townbloc is wrong" then I missed it.

on top of that, blab's lynch chain gets reevaluated if Miner is scum (and Miner was scum :v) so it's not really blab proposing a plan that causes him to lose either. His lynch only occurred under his plan if Miner flipped town.

okay yeah, I think it has to be blab. The interaction burden on Fable/Stanari is way too high.

---------- Post automerged at 09:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:07 AM ----------

Like tl;dr he builds a townbloc that PoE's him and then abandons it really quickly. I kind of do not like this.

 

Reading dC is making my headspin, one minute he's V reading someone the next he's wolf reading someone for the exact seme reason.