Then try to do something productive instead of complaining about it. who do you think Rubicon's scummate would be?

 

Bill Door, why are you asking everyone? You also seem to have no theory of your own.

 

I'm pretty sure that it's one of two people but I want to see what others have to say first.

 

I would rather hear your deductive reasoning so I know who to link with tonight if I am right about my theory.

 

Eh, there are some parts of my reasoning that I don't think it would be very good to post in thread at the moment.

 

After a night's sleep I agree I shouldn't have claimed. Sleep deprivation is a bitch to my reasoning powers.

I did not expect Zircon to claim clown with a fake target, and I definitely did not expect Bill to corroborate. This is a pretty fascinating scenario regardless of what happens next. I'm not going to bother trying to avoid a lynch because with Bill saying he was hit by a pie, I need to be lynched one way or another. Titus' plan to lynch outside of {me, Zircon} is certainly unwise. As I said yesterday, it doesn't matter if one townie falls to a mislynch today; presumably Zircon will do a bunch of crappy soup guesses tonight and one will fail and he'll be outed & immediately lynched tomorrow, so it's all good.

I think the most likely explanation is that somehow Zircon / his remaining partner deduced the clown target, or took a random guess and got absurdly lucky (given the desperation implied by the whole strategy, probably the latter). That can possibly tell us something about the remaining witch, if there is one.

I'll do a PBPA of Zircon and interactions with EricF/Aekiel shortly.

 

How is that absurdly unwise to let scum soup decide?

 

If Ollie isn't souped, he is scum. Period. I'm pretty sadface I'm dead now all that all the interesting stuff is happening >.> Anyone have any thoughts on Rubi's third scummate?

 

Let's let the soup decide. I will voteone of the two if the group decides to lynch in heir but I find it foolish.

 

I've talked to jwlk, I'm just trying to keep my part of the game mechanics moving though things are more manageable here than they were for the last week and a half finally.

And BD I just don't have possible scum yet, several live players are wtf, and it's pretty wtf to not see any NKs at all.

 

Why aren't we lynching Rubi? Why doesn't anybody have anything to say about a possible third?

 

my first go at a Zircon analysis, although obviously there's not a lot of content to analyze:

157 - An opening paragraph which says basically nothing, except to direct town to suspect Kai, one of the strongest players in the game, who we now know must have been town. I'm not entirely sure what to make of the mention of Zeitgeist; it doesn't say anything. He goes on to say, "Because I tend to sorts hack'n'slash mentality through mafia games, I at first figured Aek was good for Lump, but after the comparison of Judge!fail and Vigilante sooner, I'm pretty damn sure that's a bad idea..." It's not clear why Zircon or anyone else would have figured Aek was good for Lump, but this fits a Zircon-Aekiel pairing perfectly. You want your buddy to be lump, of course, but once Aekiel started attracting negative attention for his setup speculation Zircon decided to use it as some minor distancing, instead. Meanwhile "hack'n'slash" is an excuse to lay a preemptive defense for any criticism he gets later.

Next he implies a town read on fontisian for being "aggro as fuck, which is usual, and asking good strong to the point questions". Possible buddying with a strong player? Or evidence that fontisian was scum - her final reads post left him squarely in the null territory. Concludes with a vote on Prophylaxis, no reasoning mentioned.

One of these three is quite possibly scum, knowing Zircon, and knowing the way we played our last game as scum together.

243 - Following Kai's claim, "I think Kai should Judgehit anyone, because at this point, no matter who he would choose, the real judge is guaranteed to kill Kai if he's lying." First of all, this is just repeating the obvious point that a number of other people including fontisian said about the real Judge killing Kai, but the weird part of this post is how he somehow turns this into an argument to Kai lynching "anyone" which allows him to not support any particular wagon.

Then comes this glorious sentence, right at the end of day:

Clown!Zircon proceeds to target Rubicon.

<-- this is me rolling my eyes

^ the entirety of his contributions to the game yesterday ^

It's also worth noting again that he only just voted me in his most recent post, and didn't even vaguely allude to being clown or suspecting me in the first post where he claimed to have been targeted for a kill. As I said earlier, I think what happened is Zircon originally just wanted to say he was targeted for the kill as a last-ditch strategy following three failed kills - since after all each additional failed kill is another member for the town bloc and mechanically almost-cleared, the witches would be desperate to break that up somehow. But lucky claiming SC forced him into a scenario where he either claimed clown or was scum.

Will try to put together some more thoughts soon, since I'm dying today/tonight.

 

rubicon (6): prophylaxis (#689), luckylee (#694), billdoor (#714), vira +lump (#718), ollie (#720)

ollie (3): rubicon (#692), wetnurse (#704), sesc (#729)

prophylaxis (1): titus (#716)

With 11 active votes (10 alive, lump) it takes 6 to lynch.

Day has ~26 hours remaining: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20131207T12&p0=47&msg=DLP+TH+D4+END

 

Blah. Fenceshitting. Out until tomorrow.

 

The problem is Rubi, Ollie/Zircon is pretty much always useless, whether he is scum or not. I think Fonti would have told us if she was the clown, so the clown must still be alive. I don't know about Kai, and Eric was scum. So if nobody counters Ollie's claim, I'ma believe him. We Lynch Rubi, and me and Ollie should be souped tonight. If Ollie isn't souped, lynch him tomorrow :/ My problem is we still have no leads, or nobody wants to share em on the third scum.

 

Right, like I said further up the page, I'm not trying to convince anyone not to lynch me today, that doesn't even matter. I'm just organizing and posting my thoughts for people to read tomorrow.

 

Thats great, but Eric/Ollie's interactions are meaningless at this point. If you're town who do you think is the third? Don't bother about Ollie, there is literally no way that he can avoid a lynch if he isn't souped tonight.

 

first of all, i am under a lot of stress in real life and am sorry for not posting speedily and only at awful hours.

Anyway my thoughts/ramblings:

I think it best to ignore me to ignore my last three posts, lalalalala.

@Proph: I admit that smug satisfaction is one of my primary motives. Do you now need me to quote Stojil word for word on why else I asked that question? Tbh, it was mostly to see if you would still refuse to answer the question for arbitrary reasons even when would get something out of it that would help you.

Anyway the Rubicon-Aekiel connection(day 1-2) is still a thing, no matter how harshly Rubicon shot down EricF's claim. Aso his claim was whatever. Therefore we should lynch Rubicon.

Lynch Rubicon

I don't think enough people claimed not to be pied yesterday for scum!Rents getting a lucky guess to be a reasonable assumption, so if Rents is scum so is Bill Door.


Since I am assuming EricF = scum, the currently reasonable scumteams are:

EricF/Rents/Bill
EricF/Rubicon/xyz

with xyz being one of: Titus, Sesc, Vira, Wetnurse, Proph (blab, from a neutral pov).

Otherwise I think it's a good idea to nominate a player for Rents to pie, because that would basically be an additional priest!check on Rents, given that Angels can ensure survival of pied player with choice between SC and pied player.
Not Bill or Lucky for obvious reasons.

 

Why are they meaningless?

I think the third is in {Sesc, Wetnurse, blab}. With blab as least likely.