blab, I don't think it's very likely but I've seen stranger things before and I'm not going to rule anything out without a good reason.

 

Alright, so Proph and Vira are lurking. I'm kinda suspicious of blab and Bill Door but Proph and Vira are worse. Both of you need to talk NOW.

 

@Wetnurse:

Titus was 100% town. How does scum!Bill then make any sense? (genuine question)


Also, make a case on me stating your suspicions.


Anyway, my reread: {blab, Prophylaxis, Wetnurse, Vira/Probellum}.

blab: I think even from a neutral viewpoint I am unlikely to be scum with Aekiel and Rubicon. I would be willing to show why (eg. #139, #199, #377, #460, #530) but I'd prefer analysis on me by Bill or Sesc.

Prophylaxis: Also unlikely to be scum with Aekiel and Rubicon (or he is just really good at distancing) Because of stuff like this:

or this:

or this:

or this:

There are also posts later than this, but they are not good examples because of the likelyhoods that we would lynch EricF (rubicon) those days.

Wetnurse:
Day 1 Wetnurse doesn't have much, though this post looks bad:

The thing on Zeit, the defense of Aekiel, both the conversations with Rubicon and Aekiel which are tame (not scumhunting)

Day 2 is marginally better, with the lynch-vote switch from fontisian to EricF. Though, ensuring the lynch on fontisian is still bad when the judge was guaranteed to be alive and everybody on wants to lynch EricF instead.
I don't like this read-post:

The reasoning on Zeitgeist is bad and the scumteam is WTF, the same with the scumteam with Rubicon.
The reasons for suspicions are: Zeit has not yet claimed pie/no-pie, Zeit has not yet claimed pie/no-pie, gut feel. Maybe confirmation-bias but this feels like a distancing with Rubicon post.
Again posts later are not really indicative, because of the likelyhoods of lynching EricF/Rubicon. A little bit of role-fishing could be mentioned.

Vira/Probellum:
I still feel this town!vibe from Probellum. Though I can't find posts seperating him from a Aekiel/Rubicon scumteam. He is also kind of soft defending Aekiel a bit (being derpy as town) Vira's first post also doesn't read well in retrospect. Bu other than tha I have trouble pinning her/him down as scum.





Let's look at what our dead townies had to say in their last reads:
Titus: ....yeah
Zircon: nothing
LuckyLee: says he has no idea who the third scum is
KaiDASH: Died Day 1, so is a bit dated:

Right on fontisian/Rubicon, right on Aekiel. Likelyhood of last scum according to him:
Wetnurse/blab
Proph
Proudboar
fontisian:
(Not quoting fully because too long) Also has Aekiel as scummy, Rubicon as lean scum

fontisians conclusion:
blab
Wetnurse
(Proudboar/Vira)/Probellum
According to Unaligned pairs only Wetnurse is possible with EricF/Rubicon, though.


Vote count analysis
is kind of screwed given the judge thing Day 1, and the basically unanimous votes Day 3 and Day 4.
Day 2:
fontisian (7+1): rubicon, ollie (#344), ericf, proudboar, billdoor, Titus, Wetnurse
ericf (4): prophylaxis, luckylee, fontisian, blab
Isn't really that conclusive either, except that I again don't like Wetnurse switching at the end, and again like Proph's "we're lynching EricF instead.


Conclusion:
we should lynch Wetnurse.
Proph is towny, I am town and think I should read as towny as well. I am less sure on Vira.


Lynch Wetnurse

---------- Post automerged at 09:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 AM ----------

@Bill:

btw, if we massclaim, I'd prefer it in the exact opposite order you suggested

 

Okay, I want a decision on whether or not we should massclaim. Can everyone give me a yay/nay?

If not then let's do some old fashioned scum hunting.

 

That's fine. I just don't want to spend the whole day doing nothing and getting rushed into a lynch at the end.

 

I don't think we should claim. It's too risky with soup involved. If we fail in getting the last scum, game over.

I agree that Wetnurse is acting strangely. Sesc and Proph remain town, and Blab and Bill continue to avoid being pinned down.

Therefore, I'm fine with lynching Wetnurse.

Lynch Wetnurse.

 

I don't think we are in danger of loosing the game if we don't get scum today so I think lynching today and massclaiming next day is definitively better, therefore we shouldn't do it today.

...but I'm not Bill

 

The downsides to waiting till the next day is we might be down another townfirmed player which means the scum have a better chance of picking a dead role and we might get souped anyway. But if you think it's better to wait then we can just do it tomorrow.

---------- Post automerged at 11:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:27 PM ----------

Okay, Proph is unlikely to be scum because of his very aggressive attacks on Aekiel early on, that would have been some crazy bussing. He was also the first person to vote Rubicon day 4. I'd put him as least likely to be scum if the 4.

Proudboar really seemed like newb town early on but looking back all of his scum reads were on town players and he repeatedly wrote Aekiel off as just being derpy. Vira hasn't really done anything. Possibly scum but meh.

blab I can maybe see being in a team with Aek but it's a bit more of a stretch to see him in a team with Rubicon. I'd rate him as about as likely as Vira to be scum.

I don't see anything that makes me think Wetnurse can't be in a team with Eric and Rubicon and he's been fairly high on my scum list for most of the game so he's probably be my preferred lynch.

 

Sorry for my derp activity these past few days. I want to hear Bill Door's plan before we move forward with a Wetnurse lynch, though.

I think we should lynch Wetnurse today and work off of night actions/analysis tomorrow, if the game doesn't end with Wetnurse's lynch. I'm fairly sure it will, though.

Hm. Checking through interactions..

This kind of feels like Aekiel was trying to weakly distance from Wetnurse, by asking a derp question and applying small pressure.

EricF doesn't really mention Wetnurse until he lists his top three scum reads, which are:

I'm pretty certain that Eric put the standard scum configuration of town!Titus, town!font, and scum!Wetnurse.

I feel like this was a last-minute distancing attempt for Wetnurse to get to endgame by running a sort of Setesh Gambit.

Rubicon interactions..

Lol, Rubicon and Aek say that Wetnurse is "weird".

Yeah, I'm around 85% certain that Wetnurse is scum.

Doing a quick skim of Rubicon's posts and he barely interacts with Wetnurse. I don't think he even followed up on his question.

Hm.

Remember how Eric listed his top three scum reads?

Yeah, let's win this.

Lynch Wetnurse

I want Bill Door or Sesc to check my work.

 

What do you mean by my plan?

---------- Post automerged at 01:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:06 AM ----------

My reasoning for Wetnurse is pretty much the same as yours, but I'll also throw in this quote.

 

He probably meant to say Sesc's plan

 

Okay, great.

I'm not placing bets on who is the last scum if Wetnurse isn't.

 

Do dead players learn who is scum and town?

 

No, that would make no sense

 

Because if so I might have a plan.

DOB and crusader, if they're alive, both reveal. We lynch the DOB, get him to target one of the other 2 players. Get the Crusader to target the other. Win?

Actually, I dont think it matter if the dead know who is scum as long as they allow the kill to got through.

---------- Post automerged at 02:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:59 AM ----------

DOB has to be alive, the crusader might not be. So we'd have to get the crusader to claim first.

---------- Post automerged at 02:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:00 AM ----------

If the crusader has already tried to use their kill then they shouldn't claim anyway.

 

How about we lynch Wetnurse normally, and then if he turns out to be town, make a different plan in the morning.

Let's save role claiming for another time, in another game.

 

@Bill
You are assuming that Sesc or Bill isn't the DOB. Also scum has a chance to tie through soup. Plus [redacted]