Riley's null because IRL and then nothing since (to my knowledge? don't remember any other posts)

Nae'blis's not because his posts looked bad to me. Didn't like: "Can't say who is who for real for most of the players." Very filler-y, a little forced-feeling. Also didn't like his lump vote on Newcomb, had strong coast vibes as in, he didn't put much thought into it. As in, he didn't care where the lump went (which I'd argue is more likely to be a scum PoV than a town PoV)

---------- Post automerged at 10:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:46 PM ----------

Does that answer your questions Newcomb? You didn't really say anything in response to my explanation of my town!Jan read

---------- Post automerged at 10:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:46 PM ----------

I kinda don't like the fact that the only wagon is on Nae'blis, because there's only 2 posts from that slot and I could see it getting replaced soon, and it's effectively stagnating today's lynch. Acutally, that's characteristic of the entire day so far, one big wagon followed by another, not really much slow buildup...

 

Moderator note: While not strictly necessary, making vote and elect votes on a new line, and colored would make my life a lot easier. See Citrus' post #16.

Vote Count #3
Fontisian (3): Nae'blis, Taure, Jan
Nae'blis (2): Snowvon, Fontisian
Newcomb (1): Typhon/Irene
Sesc (1): Cobalt
Snowvon (1): The Waco Kid
Taure (1): Citrus
Typhon/Irene (1): Newcomb

Abstaining (3): Kalas, Riley, Sesc

With 13 alive, 7 is soft lynch, and 10 is hard lynch.

Lump, the Friendly Panda Elect #3
Citrus (3): Jan, Cobalt, Citrus
Newcomb (2): Newcomb, Nae'blis
Snowvon (2): Snowvon, Fontisian
Riley (1): Taure
Sesc (1): Sesc
Typhon/Irene (1): Typhon/Irene
Waco (1): Waco

Abstaining (2): Kalas, Riley

Lump Elect is decided by plurality.

(Let me know if there are any mistakes, or just clarify your vote in your next post if it's not what you think it should be)

Day End Timer

 

Eidolonic
Snowvon's lump vote is on Snowvon, I think.

Also whoa, totally mis-counted the current wagon state as I caught up (probably because I didn't stay chronological and jumped ahead a lot)

---------- Post automerged at 11:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:14 PM ----------

I thought someone else had a lump vote on Newcomb as well, but I could be wrong (someone will probably bring it up eventually if true)

 

The only real difference is :

A. Judgekill - If we hit a witch they lose 1 power before n1.
- If we miss nothing

B. Vigikill - If we hit a witch - nothing
- If we miss and we miss n2 - free shot for town.

Judgekill is more of a if we get ahead we get more ahead.

Vigikill is a failsave, in case we miss out killing witches at the start of the game.


Everything else involes a lot of what ifs. I assume the judge will listen to the towns lynch choice, and not just shoot a random person.
Uninformed lynching would be bad, even from the judges own perspective. (unless he is the d1 target, but he would always claim because he can confirm himself with sleeping)

The vigi is always a failsave, with two town lynches on day 1/2 he is likely to still be alive(3/10 towns are dead) and with the info of 2 dead town, he might have good read on at least one of the witches.

If we hit d1 and miss d2/3 4/10 towns are dead - which is ok-ish.

Every other world is kind off horrible and does not matter.
(only hitting d2 = 7/10 dead (on night 4) - the game is most likely over at that point unless it is exactly vigi dob + 1 town alive)

I did not include leeroy or dob in those worlds, both of them reduce either a member of town or mafia, when they die. (leeroy always destroys all good chances for a vigikill, because regardless of if he hits mafia or town, the kill never counts)
I also did not include souping, which is impossible to even calculate.
Town can get lucky with angelsave or gambler/clown surviving nightkills.


I am more inclined to not judgekill, unless we actually push on the judge and he is forced to out.
I liked the idea, but mod killed the fun.

 

Taure had one, but switched it to Riley.

Thanks for the Snowvon point out!

 

The vig shot is also information, in the odd case that we do mislynch twice.

 

Wow. I kinda thought Nae was the leading wagon and Snowvon was the Lump leader? Huh. Perception's an interesting thing.

Yeah, okay, I'm seeing that now. I kinda strung like 3 thoughts together there. I don't think that, though. Let me try it again: I think we've lynched scum D1 both games I've been in, and I am optimistic we can do it here too, which makes fucking with the Vigi less of an issue. Hence, my initial thought that Jan's plan is still worth it. (Because if we lynch scum D1, the Vigi can't fire until N3 and that's only if we mislynch twice after that, and what are the odds that that happens AND the Vigi is still alive?)

Yep, thanks. I'm digesting the Jan thoughts; will re-read his ISO tomorrow. In general:

I agree with that.

This is the part I'm going to focus on when I re-read. I did not find myself agreeing with him during the Jan/fonti thing.

 

Let's be honest, the real problem with the no lynch plan is that it lessens the stakes and removes votal analysis that can be used at later dates.

 

Also means Snowvon's lump isn't on me anymore

 

The no lynch plan would not reduce vote analysis, because we would play the same way until the hammer, and then we no lynch and let the judge do his thing.

So the play and the stakes are exactly the same.

I do not think that anyones play would change tbh.

 

Newcomb

It's pretty unusual to get a scum lynch D1. Just because we pulled it off two games in a row, doesn't at all make it super likely we do it here.

---------- Post automerged at 11:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:24 PM ----------

If I got a dollar every time someone reiterated one of my points this game, I'd have like four dollars right now.

 

Hint: Everyone's ignoring your points because you didn't emphasize them well.

 

True, I'm at a low-effort for the actual writing of my posts right now though, so oh well. Plus this way I earn more money

 

No plan survives contact with your fucking inlaws, or so it seems. Sorry guys, it's one here and I'm just getting home.

Gonna try to outline my thought processes tonight, and supply the promised "full steam ahead" tomorrow.

---------- Post automerged 08-31-2015 at 12:28 AM ---------- Previous post was 08-30-2015 at 11:59 PM ----------

Yeah, I'm actually dozing. In the morning I'll be sharper, and have an abundance of time. I did read through the early Newcomb/Irene stuff and think he comes off as towny. No scum game to check against, but he reads as super towncomb to me.

Unvote

 

fontisian - Good looking out while I was at work. I appreciate it.

The Waco Kid

I have extensive mafia experience but only one other tinyhunt game under my belt. I've played / hosted on GTF my home forum and have also been a part of Jesus Toast Mafia since their first main game.

So now you think Irene and I are witches?

I'm cackling tbh. That didn't even end with me reading her town. In fact, after she conceded that she read me as town, I SPECIFICALLY said that my scum lean on her was staying where it was. So you have this whole preconceived notion of those events that happened of us both reading each other town when that isn't even what fucking happened. But nice try hunty, keep it coming.

Hey Snowvon, I really don't like this post. I still don't want to lean scum on you against my better judgment, because I've caught you as town so far, but you keep making posts like these and there's only so many of them I can read before that lean is going to change.

Yessssss! This is why I always push Lazarus before the start of any games I play. Glad I could be of help I'm actually leaning witchy on you though.

Aw, thanks bae.

HAHAHAHAH NO.

Literally caught you in a bald-faced lie.

I extensively went in on you for your randomvoting of Citrus and you said it was completely randomized with a number generator.

I went in on the post that ended in the above quote here:

To which you replied:

And now you're claiming that you wanted to vote me for refusing to Lump you but that would "get people all uppity" aka draw too much attention to your witch ass and then you say that's why you went for Citrus instead. Complete, undiluted bullshit. Witch.

Unvote
Vote: Taure

Hey Snowvon, fontisian, I'm not comfortable with lumping Von. Can we lump either Citrus or myself instead?

---------- Post automerged at 02:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:55 AM ----------

Cobalt
Citrus
fontisian
Newcomb
Snowvon
Waco / Kalas
Riley
Typhon re: Irene

Nae'blis
Jan
Sesc
Taure

Snowvon - you're very borderline green for me. But not quite there. Be townier. Gosh. Also can we please Lump Citrus?

 

I actually wouldn't mind Lumping Cobalt. Or Citrus. I just really want it. And I will fight for it.

Fight me.

 

Ok.

Lump Citrus.

 

This will be short. I've only skimmed the thread (will catch up later).

1. My vote wasn't based on "half a read" or "not putting in enough thought into it". It was based on pure speculation (as I mentioned in the post) as a response to Fonti's supposed half-assed comments at the time. She's upped her game since then. If you think you can "read" people based on little to no information, you're an idiot.

2. "Can't say who is who" is not filler, it's me being honest with myself and deluding myself into thinking X behaviour == Scum. People are people.

3. Anyone who thinks they can read me as scum based on whatever criteria they choose: comparison to an old post in some other game, not enough tl;dr rants etc: Either they aren't very smart, or they've been playing mafia so long they've forgotten the rules of mathematics that govern every game output, or they're scum looking to take advantage.

4. I'll be joining in at odd hours, so if I stay in the game. I'm at UTC+5:30. Keep that in mind while "reading" me.

But yeah, quite funny that an innocuous post managed to incite some people into voting against me. At this point, my immediate reaction is to denounce people who voted against me as scum with a plan (3). I might change my mind later on after a thorough read.

---------- Post automerged at 11:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:54 AM ----------

*not deluding

 

If I have to.

 

Lump thoughts right now: Myself > Snowvon > Cobalt > Citrus. Would be happy with the first two, fine with the second two, don't really want to give it to anyone else.