I don't have a strong town read on him, therefore he could be mafia and I don't mind putting a huge target on him.

 

Aren't there many other players that'd better fit that position from your point of view? I feel like snowvon is a much lower priority for priest checks from your perspective judging from your usual confidence in reading him

 

No.

/tenchar

 

3 hours until day end!

I'll be back a little before the day ends, but you probably won't get a vote/lump tally update in next 2.5 hours.

 

Who would I like to lynch?

-Jan, for previously stated reasons. Not going to get him without firm evidence and a well-stated argument, though, and I won't get that unless Newcomb completes his iso or I do it in the last hour and a half of our day.

-The Waco Kid. He has no stated IRL reason for being gone, and yet he has posted almost nothing. Almost every post has been directed to Taure, and most of them have been asking or answering questions that seem pretty non-consequential.

-Kalas. Let's play a game called look at 164, then look at 428. In 164, before I reiterated the explanation, Kalas looks at this and sees Irene diving in and seeing Newcomb as scummy, then having confirmation bias color her following posts to continue to find him scummy. In 360, he says something about the bias that I posted about when I gave my explanation of Irene's Newcomb read vs. mine in relation to Sesc's changing reads like it's a thing. Now, in 428, he states that I had not only extremely overexplained by stating more or less what he had guessed at in his 164 except my explanation was complete with QT notes to actually confirm what I was saying, but also that there is no way that confirmation bias could be happening from Irene. Wat.

Other things to come from him are an abundance of questions and one liners, but very few instances of his own analysis. His game feels... I don't know, very passive and opportunistic? I haven't liked it at all.

-I don't abhor the Naeblis lynch, because he has been pretty bad. It just feels like the TMNT sort of bad rather than the bad scum player sort of bad. It does remove the mislynch bait.

In other news, I can't understand why Snowvon has so many lump votes when he literally has the bottom posters as his scum reads and has been super passive despite his post count. I don't want him lynched today, but I have no fuzzy feelings for him.

---------- Post automerged at 05:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:04 PM ----------

I think I'm more comfortable looking at this the other way.

Townreads:
Tyrene
Newcomb
Sesc
Citrus
Taure

 

I don't know why we're acting like it's totally impossible for the scumteam to be posting less.

It happens.

 

True. It was the case in Narutomafia with us. I just feel like he would be flailing harder if he was scum, though. I... actually, this is almost all gut stuff for me. Let me give him a post by post read.

---------- Post automerged at 05:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:11 PM ----------

That in reference to Naeblis, obviously.

 

Jan's not happening today, barring some crazy CFD at day end. I stopped my ISO of him and switched to Nae. Currently ISO'ing Nae and will be done before day end.

 

Okay, well, let me go through all of his posts and we'll see if we can find anything that could redeem him. Underlined emphasis mine.

I've been over this post multiple times. Red flags for me, maybe slightly orange flags for other townies in Hannibal mafia.

Kind of conveys an 'I don't care who's lynched' attitude. No townpoints.

Here we go. An Actual Post, and it's 100% self-defense. And the defense is basically 'if you think I'm scum, you're either scum or stupid.' Snore. Negative townpoints.

Okay, Nae thinks he 'debunked' my reasoning in this post. He actually just said 'no, you're wrong' and left it at that. What I was saying doesn't actually fall under the categories he himself is providing: you don't have to study a past game to unknowingly post in a manner that is similarly scummy. There are typical/universal/common/what-have-you scumtells. Seratin displayed them, and now Nae seems to be displaying them.

He says #2 isn't strong, which means he's acknowledging that it indeed has some merit. And then he jumps right into deflecting. I cited a reason for finding Nae scummy, voted for him, and his response does not make me want to unvote. Oops.

Scumreading people who voted on him. The entire Coven hopped onto him one after the other, guys. That is what definitely happened here.

'Without any real reasoning' is false. He just doesn't like the reasoning provided. And really, it's that reasoning + how he's handled the pressure.

And he's also defending Sesc here without providing a read on him, which smells to me.

Just answering a question, nothing exciting.

No, he hasn't.

His reasons for calling me/Jan/fontisian scum are bad. He says he has no idea on Sesc's alignment, but defend him anyways, which I thought was odd.

Trying to turn the pressure around on me.

I don't think there's really anything else I could have meant by 'easy scumreads,' but whatever.

More defense. No town motivation. Kill.

Self-preservation vote. Not an especially shocking development.

Literally does not give a shit who's lynched. Not really pushing scumreads. Town motivation is dropping into the negatives.

Meh, nothing to read into here.

And then his last two posts aren't really anything.

I am a-okay with this lynch.

 

Time to discuss claiming by naeblis now.

Obviously if he's in the judge/dob/leeroy bucket, anything else?

 

Hey Nae, if you're DOB, take out Sesc, kay?

If you're town and unimportant don't claim.

If you're town and important we need notice to not lynch you. Otherwise you out.
Nae'blis

 

Priest, Leeroy, DOB and Judge are the four roles that should claim before death.

 

Yeah, just reread him. If I'm being straightforward, I think he's town. Town with an unhelpful attitude, but town. Here's why:

The Sesc thing is bad. It's also very self interested. It's also real. This is a guy who hasn't followed any of the modern mafia conventions. From his perspective, why would a town PR (because we all are) sacrifice his life for someone he thinks is town.

Besides that, has anybody iso'd him? Go do it, it'll take like 10 minutes to read it. Put aside your perceptions of how town players should play. IMO, Naeblis is playing very poorly, but that's not the point. He has a weird consistency of thought here. I disagree with him in a bunch of ways, but this lynch was too easy.

WAIT I HAVE SOMETHING I THINK.

Okay, we had the wagon just flood off of Naeblis and flood back, right? The question is why. Hinting at a strong role is a classic scum move, there would be no reason for those who are scum reading Naeblis to bail at that. So why do it? Because it changed the structure of the wagon! Think about it. If the oracle gets info tonight (psst, the Newcomb plan is good here, but that's an aside), then what they have with a town!Naeblis lynch is a late place on the wagon, which looks scummy as fuck. If they do this, then the early mid wagon can now contain scum, which is less noticeable. So the move is to have people bail and then come back before town, making the end of the wagon towny.

This lets a 7 man wagon be bookended by town, which is unusual and less suspicious. This makes things look worse for fonti and Kalas, because they were lightning fast in getting back on/originally joining.

That's a little tinfoil hat, but it makes sense to me so I thought I'd drop it in the thread for you guys because transparent Typhon is transparent.

 

Fonti 477?

 

I agree with this.

---------- Post automerged at 05:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:52 PM ----------

Wanna hear what you come up with here.

 

Kalas, is this a serious question?

 

The level of effort here makes me feel infinitely better about the possibility that you will get lumped. I disagree, ultimately, because I see a lot of Taure's early attitude in Naeblis and he has shrank into to pure defense like a weaker, beleaguered towny might, but I do like the post from you as much as anything I've seen from you so far.

---------- Post automerged at 05:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:58 PM ----------

Sorry for quoting the whole thing, should've snipped it.

 

I have iso'd him. He has done nothing worthwhile, nothing that even slightly reads town. The only thing he's done is soft a role then back off it when people expected something from him.

---------- Post automerged at 08:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:01 PM ----------

Yes. Though from your tone I'm guessing you're missing what I was aiming at. If a tie happened between snow and new would we get anything useful out of that?

 

Besides that whoever arranged the tie was scumclaiming?

---------- Post automerged at 06:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:08 PM ----------

Yeah, actually I'm just going to go ahead and

Vote: Kalas

because I don't think Naeblis is scum, and Kalas has been weird.

 

Nae ISO:
Good stuff. Good drama. Nice start to the game y'all. Reading through the entire thread. Can't say who is who for real for most of the players. It'd be entirely speculative with no real basis. My problem is fonti, who has, as pointed out earlier, done nothing but give out dismissive judgements with not a whole lot of justified rationale. As an aside, if someone is using outside-the-game references, I request them to explain it as well (last mafia I played was about 3 years ago). I have no idea what a "garcia" is, for example. Lump: Newcomb because it's the only plan we have so far. Vote: Fontisian[/QUOTE]"]
Post 1. Snowvon's right, this is Seratin-vibes to the max. Light scumreads fonti for "done nothing but give out dismissive judgements with not a whole lot of justified rationale." I disagree with that, FWIW. Lumps me, votes fonti.

Post 2. Responds to Taure. The "gotta lynch someone" vibe when called out on an apparent contradiction seems to be in line with his later posts about not wanting to die.

Post 3. Fonti vote "pure speculation." Dismisses the idea of "reading" people based on the amount of information in the thread at the time. Reminds me of some things Taure said later. His response to the Seratin thing:

I... don't really understand the "rules of mathematics" thing. I think he's saying that people are going to behave in their own styles, and that drawing parallels between games is bad? The thing is, though - Snow's "this feels like Seratin" was more of a "things wolves tend to do" comparison, because Seratin was a low-posting wolf in that game. It's not valid to just dismiss it like that - how people get reads is by looking at things scum/town have tried to do in the past, and using that as a starting point. That's what I do, anyway.

That first part is good, I think. That seems like a natural reaction, if he's actually town and seeing all this pressure, especially because he wasn't super active? That last part, though, giving himself explicit permission to change his mind... well, he did say "after a thorough read," so I'll file this away and see how it matches up to his later posts.

Post 4. Some back and forth with Citrus. Citrus quite rightly calls him out on "doing what scum do when attacked."

"This is what scum would do" is the reason. That's, like, at least 50% of the game. Motivation and mindset.

The self-preservation thing seemed towny to me when I first read it. I kinda think scum would be a little less obvious about not wanting to die. But, I also think a town mindset is not "don't die at all costs." Because if as town you can get into a guaranteed 1v1 with scum, you do that always. If you can die but take a scum with you, you do that always. "I don't want to die as my #1 priority" is what scum think.

Post 5: Reads. Posits a Jan/Fonti/Snowvon team, which is like - huh? Reasons:

I think it's been pointed out already, but just to emphasize, he's created a hypothetical scumteam of Jan/fonti who went so hard against each other, almost uncomfortably so, to the point where if they are w/w together we basically lose the game happily and give them each an Oscar. Yeah. Not seeing it.

^ This is to Jan. That last part... man. That's, like, wolfy in at least four different ways.

Post 6. Null.

Post 7. To Snowvon, "I've already debunked your argument." Then:

I can't decide if this is a deliberate misunderstanding of Snowvon's point or not. I... don't think it is, actually? Nae's pushing back with a "damned if I do, damned if I don't" argument, but the actual meat of Snowvon's case isn't being addressed - it's like he's just reading the top layer, or something? Eh. Can't quite articulate it. I think this is towny frustration.

Post 8. Telling Snow to come up with a "better reason." Hm. A "better" reason, not an "actual" reason? Reads like "caught for the wrong reasons."

Post 9. More going at Snow.

Post 10. Okay. This is towny paranoia, I think:

I mean, it is, because Jan/fonti doesn't make sense to me, and it's a little flail-y, but... I see the town mindset here.

Post 11/12:

Can't get past it. Just... "better someone else than me" is the opposite of a towny mindset. I hate, hate these posts.

Post 13: Null, stating he hasn't claimed.

Post 14: Accepting the lynch.

Post 15:

Un huh.

I didn't like the early posts at all, saw some things that look genuinely town in the middle, and that stuff at the end is wolfy as hell.

I did this same project with Seratin when we geared up to lynch him, and I'm not as sure in this spot, but I'm still pretty sure.

Out-of-sync townie: 40%
Slanking wolf: 60%

Recommendation: Lynch