Not sure if this improves or lessens my read on you.

 

Y? I know terse is your jam, but help me out.

 

Yeah. This was weird at 316. More so now. Explain please.

 

Ugh. Inb4 it really is Reg/fonti/Math.

 

It's like his reads didn't change post miner lynch. I may be a bull in a china shop but when I make a mistake I at least admit it. This feels like he's taking a case presented to him by a scummate and trying to present it to everyone as if it is solid gold when the defense says "Uhmmm 200+years have passed since the Renaissance. Are you going to include electricity in your case?"

Prosecution "Nahhhh we're good Math is still scum."

---------- Post automerged at 19:42 ---------- Previous post was at 19:41 ----------

No. Just no. *facepalms* Why would a Reg/Fonti/Me team soup?

 

I don't think his lack of change on read on you after the Miner flip; Miner and yourself for the most part didn't interact, vote or push each other. I think it's entirely plausible you're scum with Miner too myself, it's something I'll be keeping an eye on when I do my reread. It's his Typhon read and read on my slot that I don't buy him having after the flip.

 

What.

Typhon, miner scumclaimed.

---------- Post automerged at 22:44 ---------- Previous post was at 22:44 ----------

What villager acts the way miner did when they're gonna be lynched D1?

 

I haven't laughed that hard in a while

 

Oh God relax guys it's just my tinfoil world.

---------- Post automerged at 09:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:44 PM ----------

No worries, my vote is still on Waco. Just saying if we have a vig shot tomorrow or something that shatters our gamestate and they're all alive still then we should probably think about it.

 

And I am bored.

Lynch Mathblade

Von is behaviorally town. Typhon is never with Miner. Kalas is cleared baring a Jari priest claim. Q pushed Miner from the beginning and his posts ring true. Waco never allows a Day 1 soup to go through. And Jarizok feels very town.

Then there's you, Math, fluff, Kai and Jan. Perhaps Jan decided to soup himself, but he's been on the wrong end of a poe as scum before, so I doubt it. Fluff's fluff is town enough to not be lynched.

Then there's you, Math and Kai. Kai could be in any world. Math is inordinately scummy. And you joined late and tried to take the credit for a Miner lynch that was going to happen anyway.

Convince me otherwise, reg.

 

Why are you citing a game where I made a decision that was wrong and it was explained so after? During that post I didn't realize it was a mistake. I don't see the relevance in what you are citing.

---------- Post automerged at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:47 ----------

I has sads you still votes me when I help joke about Jan Dob D1...Super sads.

 

"Waco would never let a N1 Soup go through."

Citation needed.

 

Miner/Waco/Fonti -- Tinfoil world

Miner/Waco/Reg -- Most likely world

 

Ehh.

I think don't feel like Waco is any less likely to let soup go through than Kai or Reg is, and Jan souping himself is... honestly I can see it, but no more likely than any of the first three being involved in a souping down a teammate.

Which brings us to Miner/Fluff/Math (I will bring that mic drop post where I called that halfway through D1 and be insufferable about it if I'm right) if we just take the most likely people to soup.

I'm inclined to think it's not quite that easy, but willing to compromise lynch Fluff?

 

Awesome, some actual reasoning to work with. I agree completely with the Von/Typhon/Q town reads, you can take those to the bank.

I agree with Koalas being very likely town given a) He's actually posting and scumhunting which I don't see scum that's about to be outed doing and b) There's now only one person that's not posted.

Jari I had a strong town read on D1 but have two issues that I need to sort out before putting him back in the locktown pile being a) I remember several instances where he gave Miner a lot of room to move where it'd makes sense to do such as a partner and b) I remember when I questioned him D1 about his Jan read he was very vague and suggested it was based on role-reasons so I can see him potentially making the Jan soup attempt.

I disagree completely with the "Waco would never soup N1" read - if you read how the late parts of D1 played out there was several people including myself that had a scum read on Waco and had a read of him making a lot of sense as scum with Miner. Given that we now know that Miner is scum and that Waco put forward a stronger case on Miner than he did on Math but retrained his vote on Math in a way that makes sense as push mslynch, distance with partner I think Waco would know the odds that he gets lynched today are rather high. I think in that case he almost always takes the risk and soups N1 as opposed to just getting lynched D2.

I agree that Jan probably didn't self-soup, I think the only time that ever happens is if he's with someone he thinks can't ever end-game town (ie. Kai/Math/Waco ect.) and is taking a huge risk. I think most of the time Jans just town here though.

I could see any of Fluff/Math/Kai being scum, there was something that I had in my notes about Fluff/Miner probably not being partners. I'll give you a clearer idea where I'm at with them after my reread.

So; I think your reasoning for town reading Waco is very wrong and ignores the gamestate, I'm much more cautious about Jari than you are otherwise I agree with the rest of your reads.

 

Compromise lynches bad with it just being start of day...Bad Typhon bad.

 

Oh, nevermind, you're claiming a soft Fluff townread there. Hmm.

I mean, Math isn't a bad lynch, really. I'm pretty okay with it - their shift from "the world is an AtE" to this version is stark, and they were scum before.

Does anybody have any arguments against it (anybody here meaning like Snow and Q)?

---------- Post automerged at 10:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:00 PM ----------

I mean.

It's not a secret that you/Waco/Fluff are my bottom 3. I'm reasonably contented to kill you all in whatever order atm, although I'll probably want one of your heads over the others by EOD2.

 

Actually have a scum read on him via play (I disagree with "too scummy to be scum" ever being a reliable tell) but in my notes I've got it mentioned that Miner suggested policy lynching Fluff at one point mid D1 which I think is unlikely to happen to a partner but I don't have a very clear memory of how it played out. I'l quote the post later when I do the read. Still think Waco is the avenue for today; I'll probably make a bigger case later.

---------- Post automerged at 11:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:06 PM ----------

Ugh, got an idea in mind re; what we could do today but I'm not sure if it's a +EV move.

 

Duh...And I could have just kept my Fluff vote after rereading if I wanted to placate you. Lying takes effort I would rather not expend.

 

I was actually talking to fonti there (although I guess it also applies to you since you largely agreed).

On the note of miner/Fluff, when you reread cast an eye at when Miner started doing things like suggesting a policy lynch. I don't know if you glanced at the little interaction chart thing I made for Miner, but he starts scumreading Fluff after Q and I start teeing off on him (miner, that is).