Err. Well then.

I did another thing in the night phase, have it here.

You can skip to the bottom for the tl;dr, but it might be worth a read in case someone disagrees with me.

Math reread (looking for the last partner, although if things jumped out at me that weren't that I noted them as well):

-Pretty clear in hindsight that they wanted Lump to go to town Kalas/were trying to pull down some sweet towncred for pushing town!Kalas when it wasn't at all clear. Call it gut indeed.

-The prod at Jan for his early Snow interactions (probably) make him slightly more likely to be town?

-Does the infamous horrible horrible horrible thing with Q, Jari, and Jan (although Jan's is slightly softer I guess. Still). Early bus is early or whatever and they're not exactly pushing him lIke they are me/Snow, but still probably makes Jan more likely town?

- "They did sheep it. They posted something fishy about the Jan wagon and are horribly inconsistent with their reads after that point. It is that kind of cognitive dissonance on reads that is likely to come from Town though. Some dissonance is scum tell others is town. Leaning town here." - Jari is pretty much lock town in the way Kalas was.

-Responds to the Waco vote but like... never engages with it? Idk. Look at this again.

-Q gets the same clear for reasons that aren't reasons at all ("I think you're wrong about everything but I read your wrongness as towny lol conf!town")

-Early doubt cast of fonti in 723 because Math wants Lump to go to Kalas and knows he'll flip town? Thin but there - probably makes fonti town?

-Throws Fluff's name out as potential scum in 725 - me/Snow/Fluff. What are the chances of math/Miner both bussing Fluff at this point when they're both heavily scumread, and how does it compare with the chances of them pouncing on fluff's scumminess and lurking to try and worm town into a mislynch? Math doubles down with a vote on Fluff a few posts later.

-Fluff's 730 could be relevant (possible bus?). Not the point of this, but something to keep in mind.

-871 is far from the only place this is seen, but it kinda makes me believe in fluff/math/Miner. Like, I don't think Math leaves a last will and testament with 2 nearly conf!towns and a mislynch in it. Fluff is probably a partner, this is very possibly a bus.

-905 is more fonti doubtcasting.

-907 gives the bottom of a read wall that looks like this:
Jan/Jari
Snow/me/Fluff

Math mentions the rule of 1-1 earlier, which (probably) increases the likelihood that they follow it (even if subconciously). In this case we have a townread on Miner, so there's that 1, Math is scum so there's that 1, and that leaves one in Jan/Fluff. Hard to imagine a team of Jan/Math/Miner missouping Jan on purpose after losing 1 scummates D1 with a firm likelihood of losing a second D2 and Jan being mildly townread at best instead of priest hunting, but ehh. I guess it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

-991 gives Math a "reason" to scumread me over Fluff despite saying /in the post/ that their reasons for voting Fluff were better.

-Attitude changes completely from defeatist to agreeable when the lynch is swung off of her.

-Opens the next day pushing Wacof and setting up to push Reg then fonti - Fluff's only posts in the intervening time were scummy as fuck nothing posts that indicated that he was probably watching the thread and just not posting. Even if we take those to be null, no reason for Fluff to have suddenly fallen out of those team.

Not going any further than this.

TL;DR
fonti is probably town, Reg is probably town, Waco is likely town, Jan is possible scum, Fluff is very likely scum.

---------- Post automerged at 08:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:20 PM ----------

Going to advocate that we just run Fluff up and end unless someone has something compelling for me?

Lynch Vote: his fluffiness

 

I'm crying, this is hilarious.

inb4 Priest comes out with a guilty.

 

Perfect victory 10-3 to 10-0 is on the cards.

 

MathBlade protesting how low Kai- is in Snow's readwall? I think given Math's tunelling this game, the last scum should be someone she rates as null to towny, which would fit with Kai.

---------- Post automerged at 09:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:25 PM ----------

I hope so.

 

Lol that would be ideal, yeah. But idk, barring that I almost feel like Newcomb from last game now - the talking feels more or less over here.

Like claims are too dangerous to fuck with at this stage (we've won this game, the only way to lose is to fumble with soup), and I can't imagine anybody not wanting to lynch in Fluff/Jan here.

Given Miner started pushing Fluff when he came under pressure and Math did the same then swapped apropos nothing at D2 start, I'm pretty sold on Fluff.

 

Koalas/Von/Typon/Q are a pile of innocent childs. I think based on the interaction between Jan/Math where she quoted her "not" reading him as the DOB is actually her reading him as the DOB and actually souping him N1, this makes Jan very very likely to be town. None of these players are ever to be lynched.

I think both Waco & Fonti are probably town based on that flip, I'll go through Maths ISO to make sure of that later but not even remotely interested in considering either today. I similarly think Kais reaction towards how things played out yesterday was town.

I'll need to take a look at Jari to see if he fits with a Math/Miner scum team because scum would have been looking for an alternate mslynch D1 and him voting Typhon with them early on fits that?

But it probably is just as easy as Fluff.

 

Lol.

As hyped as I'd be to read the scum QT where they convinced Kai to N1 soup and then Math did that claim, I'm not seeing it.

 

Why would we want to lynch Jan?

 

This game has been so rough for the Coven.

D1 competing wagons were w/w, that's awful.

 

We'll, it's in the wall, but I'm still trying to make sense of the missoup.

But you're right, it totally is just you.

 

Jans not in my lynch pool for today; I think Math genuinely read Jan as DOB from their exchange and took a punt at it N1.

---------- Post automerged at 09:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:33 PM ----------

Typhon, what was your overall analysis of Math-Jari when going through and reading it?

 

Regfan this is Math on Jari - this feels like a pretty classic too much information reach town. Math did it a few times, if you read my big post.

It really is just Fluff.

---------- Post automerged at 08:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:34 PM ----------

Like, feel free to check my work if you want, but I'm pretty confident here.

 

Based on the Day 1 votes, it doesn't look like the third Witch made /any/ kind of attempt to save their buddies.

Which meshes with fluff not really being around.

Eh.

Day3 Vote fluff

fluff, if you're a Should Claim role, go ahead and get it out of the way. Otherwise choo choo.

---------- Post automerged at 21:37 ---------- Previous post was at 21:36 ----------

Like seriously, the /only/ major wagons Day 1 were fluff, MathBlade, and miner.

That's insane.

 

So same plan as yesterday I figure. Priest outs a redcheck, Oracle (if proc'd) mentions if there's 2.

Depends on how the Day goes but I'm leaning Kai > fluff at the moment. We'll see.

 

Snowvon Ahem.

 

Is it bad that I still don't really believe that fluff is scum?

Both miner and MathBlade scumclaimed in a /hunt/ game. Do they really do that if fluff is the last Witch?

It seems like borderline gamethrowing.

 

Typhon - This is shitty reasoning but why doesn't Fluff just soup last night if it just him? I'd have to imagine the soup N1 was Maths and not Fluffs if that's the exact scum team, it'd be the classy/logical way to go out if he was sure he was getting lynched here.

 

No actively viewing thread is throwing me off.

 

If you really think miner and Math both scumread their partner as they townread each other while their partner scumread both of them, sure.

But I know it's not me, so if I'm not lynched before tomorrow morning, i'll be busy going through Math and miner's posts and try and find the last scum so that you can end the game ToMorrow.

 

Kalas, dear, Math /literally scumclaimed/.

Also Kai was never on that scumteam. Like I'd more or less bet the game on that.

I mean, don't have to because we have like 5 more days before the game is over so we could almost lynch through the full list of not basically townfirmed players, but yeah.