That crosspost though.

Don't rush it, I'm going to bed now, not diving into Vaimes. Get back at me sometime tomorrow.

 

So every time I look at the PoE and reads I have I don't see entire scum reads that work, I agree with Vaimes/Fonti not being a thing, I'm pretty sure Koalas/Rubicon/Waco are not a trio, I could see two being scum inside there but not all three. I don't think Rubicon/Fonti are a world, I also don't think Rubicon/Kai is one, Kai/Waco isn't a world for pretty obvious reasons.

Like, everything I'm looking at is pointing that least 1, probably 2 isn't in the PoE.

I'll go into specifics more when I get home if you're cool waiting then.

But Jari might be my strongest town read in the game right now outside of Fable/Fluff/Cobalt.

---------- Post automerged at 01:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:39 AM ----------

Jaris, reads and thoughts on Delphine & Miner are so genuine.

---------- Post automerged at 01:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:40 AM ----------

Like I looked through this read from Jari today and I just love it from him, there's some logical errors inside it like Scum!Koalas can't actually vest Scum!Delphine if she's not really an oracle and it's the role they left alone since she wouldn't receive it so the "Scum banking lots of HP" isn't exactly right but just everything here feels so natural and is a read I struggle seeing him make up as mafia;

Spoiler

---------- Post automerged at 01:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:43 AM ----------

Like it seems tin foil since everything Delphines posted oozes town but something like Owner/Koalas/Delphine/Miner + 1 fits so much more than anything else I've pieced together this game yet and Jarizok having that thought feelsgood. Probably not being clear; I think that being the team is very probably not the case, I think if it is we probably realise it before it's not too late and win anyway but I can understand him getting to that conclusion.

---------- Post automerged at 01:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:49 AM ----------

I've mentioned it earlier too, as has Fable but Owners flip and her read & interaction with Jarizok is a very good look for him and is something that points towards him being town as well. I also stand by that I think he as mafia would have been more aware of the fact that scum can obviously claim the 6th role despite not picking it and the way that the conversation played out there read as a town-slip of sorts. I guess I'm just trying to say Jarizok is someone I'm very confident of being town here right now and there's not many things I'm /very confident/ in at the moment.

---------- Post automerged at 01:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:53 AM ----------

Consider that my post about Jari since that's pretty much all about him I guess?

If there's anything you strongly disagree about re; reasoning or the overall conclusion on him I'd like to hear it Newcomb because I'm planning on mostly moving forward attempting to game solve under the assumption he's town for a bit.

You totally went to bed too early btw.

 

Owner / Koalas / Rubicon / Fonti / xxx ?

 

Also I'm kind of tempted to ask Vaimes just to shoot Koalas in the face before he can even use his vest here and then we progress lynching Atum today and having him vest Fluff if he's town since I'm finding more worlds that have Atum as a potential scum member in them as I'm moving forward and I think there's some decent logic that makes him mafia.

I think that at minimum leads towards 1 scum dead (Koalas), possibly two (Both) but in the worst case we're having Fluff immune from the night kill tonight which seems like a decent way to go through this day phase.

 

I agree with anything that gets Fluff through Night 2.

 

There's no way kalas and Atum are both scum together AND trueclaiming their roles.

Atum for sure could have claimed something else, since we were literally talking about lynching the BOD just to 1up fluff. Him claiming it there as a witch is simultaneously bad and completely unnecessary.

You didn't and haven't explained why that is a good situation for me to be in as a Witch.

To be absolutely clear, the situation I'm referring to is that people were reading me as town based off a false premise.

I don't disagree that people reading me as town on their own initiative is a good situation, but that is not what was actually going on and you /have not/ addressed this at all.

Second, you completely and obviously avoided mentioning Fontisian.

 

I think both of you are over-valuing the Priest, tbh.

Like... take a second and think about a result you'd 95+% trust tomorrow, why you'd trust it, and what level of WIFOM you can stomach w/r/t Haunts.

Personally I run down the player list and I imagine Fluff saying so and so was town tomorrow and it... kinda doesn't move the needle for me on a lot of them.

 

I disagree on a very strong level, think about what's unclaimed and tell me if you really believe this.

---------- Post automerged at 02:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:29 AM ----------
Newcomb - Protecting Fluff isn't just about the investigation for me, mafia can't take him deep they're going to have to waste a night to remove that protection which is a gain for us.

---------- Post automerged at 02:33 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:31 AM ----------

@Kai - Only unclaimed roles are Spiritualist and Judge, mafia got rid of one, Jan was the other. If Judge is mafias 6th role they have to claim truthfully.

 

My understanding is that spiritualist and judge are unclaimed.

If the scum team had both BOD and Nurse on it and they dumped some other role, to me this indicates that the scum team is made up of players that are not good at valuation.

---------- Post automerged at 05:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:36 PM ----------

I think it's possible that a scum team could keep one, depending on the player that has it, but keeping them both when the owners are Atum and Kalas is too much.

I don't follow your logic re judge.

 

And we are talking about a Owner/Koalas/Atum + 2 world, I do not think it's impossible for them to do that.

But let's back up because I'm not even saying I think they're partners, just that I'm decently confident in Koalas being mafia and the more I read the game the more I think Atum is plausible to be mafia and think if he's town losing him but gaining a vest is still a good trade. Pretty much from the plan I don't see a world at all where we come out of it badly.

 

I'll probably overthink this and tinfoil to hell and back tomorrow but I don't have the energy rn.

Night.

 

And my point re; Judge is that it's not really fake claim able, we ever no Lynch at any point the game due to them claiming it and no one dies they become confirmed mafia.

---------- Post automerged at 02:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:41 AM ----------

So if mafia drop it and it's their 6th their claims are kind of forced to be made.

---------- Post automerged at 02:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:43 AM ----------

Which means that Atum as mafia for instance has to claim Dame if mafia dropped Judge (50% chance) making it less town than people read earlier on.

 

Ok I actually think this is irrelevant.

Basically:

1. Kalas was going to be lynched no matter what he claimed
2. Atum was only going to be lynched if he claimed exactly what he claimed.

Kalas' claim doesn't matter, so he probably is the nurse and it's non-indicative.

Atum's claim does matter, so he probably is the BOD and it's very indicative, but it may still be better to lynch him for fluff. Keep in mind that BOD is possibly the /worst/ scum role in the game, and if you roll it there is absolutely no reason not to swap it.

I think the most likely world we're in is Judge Jan and dead role Spiritualist.

 

Thank you Reg! Guess it fits pretty perfectly after all.

 

I think you misunderstand, he can still target Oracle, but Delphine won't receive the life if she isn't the Oracle.

 

Oh. So they if discarded Oracle he could still target Oracle and noone would get an extra life? My bad.

---------- Post automerged at 10:13 ---------- Previous post was at 10:12 ----------

Yeah, he would have done that by now, neverminddd.

---------- Post automerged at 10:23 ---------- Previous post was at 10:13 ----------

I mean, if Miner is really the hunter he would then prefer to nurse him to actually get the extra life on the team instead of wasting it maybe? But there's really no reason to be this against it if it could get him towncred to just do it. mehhh.

 

I don't get this read, but I'd like to. This conversation doesn't really make me feel much because it was so regardless of alignment intentional for Waco to being engaging Rubicon in the first place about Fable.

Rubicon was an initial vote from Waco and has floated around the bottom of his reads since. Looking forward to Waco's follow up there.

Although, if Rubicon/Kalas/Owner/Waco are all scum then Waco's been bussing way more than he probably ought to be.

I think Waco/Kai are more unaligned than Waco/Rubicon.

---------- Post automerged at 02:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:12 AM ----------

I think this Atum post was before the BoD plan was even brought up and I wanna say it's even more town indicative for him.

This at least was after that:

 

I would love to hear your decent logic for me being scum. Really. Lay it out my man.

 

Sure, your name is Atum, mafia is spelt m a f i a, you have two of those letter in your name therefore you have a very high chance of being mafia, full proof logic here, you may as well confess.

But on a serious note, there was quite a lot of agreement with the BoD claim -> Get lynched plan, the fact that everyone sort of just quickly avoiding commenting too much on the follow-through of it after you claimed feels..uh? Wrong? I think if you're town there's a decent chance mafia just attempt to use that to save Scum!Koalas from being lynched today since that's clearly where the thread direction was going but that never happened. I also think if you're scum some of the people that voiced agreement but lack of follow through could plausibly be your partners. The more I thought about it the less I found the fact that you claimed a town-tell.

Outside of the BoD claim you were highly active throughout the pre-game period, stated reads, thoughts and comments were town read from it and then just...permanently coasted from those reads. It's not even a case of "You've been inactive", it's more just you're checking in, reading the posts and just not bothering to do any real game solving in a way that makes so much sense coming from scum that's been town read and have no reason to attempt to ruin that.

When you tie those two reasons to the fact that I'm just having difficulty finding a scum team it just feels like you've got a decent chance of being mafia here, like it's not even that I can't find "5 names that fit", I'm struggling 3-4 that go together that doesn't include looking at me having an incorrect town read earlier.

Where I am right now is that I think if we can have a day phase where Koalas/You both die and in the case that you're town Fluff gets protection I'm a happy man, it removes two people from my suspect pool, gives me two flips to work with and has a backup plan that's very solid if the reads are wrong.

---------- Post automerged at 04:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:27 AM ----------

Feel me, my man?

---------- Post automerged at 04:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:28 AM ----------
Delphine - Gun to your head right now where's the scum at?

 

Uh, hey guys.

I can peep the judge.

---------- Post automerged at 05:42 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:36 AM ----------

So, if the witches dumped the judge ability and Kalas nurses hims4lf, I can use it to kill him. If the didn't dump it, witches get a free kill but I get to confirm a witch.

Uh, except if they have ir and kill someone and you guys think I came up with this plan to get a free kill and a free mislynch for the witches. Ok, never mind, bad idea.