I have a very strong town read on Vira. A lot of her earlygame stuff was just so... pure? Like. Really pure. Like, I don't see how a witch posts this or is this innocuous. Since then, a lot of our reads have aligned, Vira has shown a lot of sensibility in the face of a lot of big messes and I just overall think the game is over for me if she's scum here because I'll never be lynching her unless there's damning evidence.

My problem with Vaimes and Newcomb is that with everything else going on I just... haven't tried reading them. Vaimes was leantown for awhile and has stayed there only because I never thought to really dig into an otherwise perspective, and Newcomb actually was low null / leanscum for me early on but I can't for the life of me remember why, and it's probably because of something that was already cleared up and that's why I didn't revisit it.

So essentially, strong town Vira, but if there is a deep wolf it very well could be one of Vaimes or Newcomb. I very much doubt it's both.

---------- Post automerged at 11:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:51 PM ----------

And if the game is going as poorly for witches as it optimally could be right now (Owner / Kalas both witch, all paired claims town), they'd need someone really pushing the towny side of the spectrum to have any hope of saving this. So I think it's possible, quite probable, even.

 

Also, Vira dunked Kalas, so if Kalas is a witch, she's town.

Is there a chance that both Rubicon and Kai are scum?

 

The only problem is that I don't have much of a read on like, Waco, and Kai got weirdly hostile when I was scumleaning on him and I'm not sure if that's AI or not.

 

fontisian, I'l get you those quotes later.

Fair, I'm probably low-balling it with the 5%.

I'll go through the Fontisan/Koalas not W/W later but glad you mostly agree with me that there's probably exactly 2 names inside that pile that everyone is using as the "PoE", I don't think we see more than 2 in it or less.

I'd love your Vaimes read elaborated on. I really don't have much that helps me reduce the PoE of potential teams that work with the names in that list, I haven't see much Atum/Vira/Jarizok/Vaimes type interactions that I'd call "Not W/W".

Overall think we're in a fairly similar place?

 

I don't see any particular reason to rule that out.

 

Honestly my jar read is starting to wane a bit, I feel like he's getting less interested the seemingly better we do and that's kind of odd.

 

And frankly the fact that it's even POSSIBLE for scum to have both Leeroy and DOB makes me squirm uncomfortably.

 

Keep in mind that witch!Kalas never makes the desperation play of nursing Miner unless a.Miner is a witch with him or b. his team really has no hope and .they need the possibility of town not lynching him. But, Kalas was also resistant enough to the idea of nursing Delphine before Miner that I can't see them together. This is why getting Kalas' alignment is so important, btw.
Fable, let me boil it down to this. If we are ever going to lynch Atum, the best possible time to do it is Today. Therefore, hold him Today to the higher standard of "someone I would lynch in the next few Days" instead of "the scummiest person Today." If he passes that standard, the please continue voting for Rubicon.

Also, I would kind of like to know what changed your mind wrt lynching me over Rubicon.

---------- Post automerged at 11:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:56 PM ----------

This.

The eod 1 stuff was really impressive, but with so many confirms and him not doing anything now, it's bleh.

Jarizok, Kalas is dead, choose another lynch.

 

Fairly similar, yeah. I think the only things we strongly disagree on are Vaimes (I think he's town, you're not sure) and Jarizok (you think he's town, I'm not sure.) With varying but some degree of difference in the strength of our "mrgle, in some worlds" reads on fonti/Waco.

And yeah, I agree with you and fonti that we either lynch Atum toDay, or never lynch him this game.

I'm.... kinda leaning towards never lynching him? I'd hate to be wrong here but I just really feel like the way he approached pushing you, the way he didn't consider the Cobalt / BoD angle of things just... it's such an unreasonable-looking angle to take as a witch, I guess. And so much more understandable as semi-tunneled town.

I know I'm the kind of player who doesn't deal in absolutes, here. I'm trying to figure out if I can trust myself to actually lock clear him. Like, if I just say sure let's lock clear him and then the game doesn't end and it's down to the wire... I dunno.

I honestly just need a little time way from this game. I know what me spinning my wheels feels like and this is it.

 

Honestly, scum having the dob is actually bad for them in some ways. Either Newcomb is the Dob, and he'll always die in endgame, or one of his teammates is the dob, and when we lynch them, we'll know Newcomb is scum.

 

I'm pretty glad to hear this, since I have some things from her that are not W/W with Owner and not W/W with Koalas and by play she's the person inside Atum/Vaimes/Vira I thought was the most likely to be town. I probably wouldn't go as far as you can say "I'll never be lynching her' but I think she's probably one of the last people in the thread I would be.

I think Newcombs town, I've liked a lot of his posting throughout the entire game and with him being DOB Fontisian is right in that we don't even need to worry about him too much, he gets lynched whenever we hit 3/4 so I feel discussing him isn't the best use of our time.

As for Vaimes, I think his interactions with Owner and favourable but outside of that I don't have a real strong town read on him at all and have thought a few comments and interactions from him can come from scum. So I don't think it's implausible for him to be scum at all, if you get time maybe focus a little more him please?

 

I can still switch back to you but I don't see your lynch happening and rubicon's lynch seems at least like a possibility.

 

Oooh, good, I actually was just about to ask if we could revisit Jarizok.

---------- Post automerged 05-06-2017 at 12:01 AM ---------- Previous post was 05-05-2017 at 11:59 PM ----------

I feel like Vaimes will resolve D3 though?

Like, when we get Kalas's cards, if he's a witch I think Vaimes is pretty safe.

 

Just to be clear:

If I do get lynched this game because of my role, I want it on the record right now that it doesn't count as a mislynch.

And with that I'm out for a while, hopefully.

 

I have a cat sitting on me, and I can't get to my mouse to play games, so I guess it's actually time to do a reread.

 

The thing is how long do we let jar get away with not doing much? Cuz if we wanna lynch him we lose access to flips which kind of would suck.

 

If he's a witch, the flips aren't reliable anyway.

 

Is it just me or is this a bit of an opportunistic post considering Newcomb's potential alignment was recently in discussion?

 

Newcomb - Fair, time away from the game is a good idea,
I should have left a bit ago too but wanted to stay around and go over this briefly, I have to go now though.

This is fair.

Eh, the "Resistant to nurse Delphine so not together" thing does nothing for me, if Delphine is scum there's a nonzero chance that she's not the Oracle but actually the Spiritualist or Judge so the "Nurse Oracle" wouldn't have given her an extra life. Not impossible that interaction was just distancing and Koalas was tossing up self-healing as scum but decided at the end to partially hide his reveal by nursing Miner so we'd have to evaluate the Gravedigger or scum lie about the result.

This is very untrue, Vaimes was forced into shooting Koalas, if he refuses and they're partners together that's a really bad look for him after the Koalas lynch.

Also Newcombs "On record it's not a mslynch" isn't a scum-tell Cobalt, Newcombs played for quite some time and was never ever mslynched, the very last game he played before this was the first game he's ever been mslynched in and I don't think he wants it on record that he was mslynched twice in a row there.

 

Mm, I guess.

And I wasn't saying it's a scum tell I'm just saying it looks bad to make a post that subliminally reads "I'm town cuz I'd be mad if you all thought this would be a mislynch" when we were recently discussing his alignment, is all.