Good morning.

I feel like I have a townread on Kai. Or I'm just baffled at how verbose he's being.

How's that?

On the off-chance that Jarizok says Koalas was somehow town, I need to know who to get mad at.

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I feel like I need a mindmap for this game.

 

I don't think you knowingly shoot a teammate? I don't exactly start thinking you're a witch if koalas is town.

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Honestly if I have a secret wolf it's Newcomb.

 

Do you believe Atum is town or scum?

 

I'm not confident enough that's he's town. Down the line, I'd lynch him before Fluff, Cobalt, Reg, yourself and probably Vaimes. Might as well do it now and get something out of it.

 

I hope you'd lynch him before Fluff, Cobalt, and Reg.

If Atum can't be lynched toDay, who would you move to?

 

Talking about Vaimes:

When I talk about Vaimes making town!Vaimes posts, it's just, like this kind of thing. Scum!Vaimes has trouble making these kinds of posts sound not awkward and/or convoluted and/or wishywashy.

Like, this is a clear thought. Miner's response was bad, and then he had the additional leap that fonti's snap off might say something about her alignment, but nah, not so much.

When Vaimes tries to make posts like this as mafia, they come off as... slightly nervous / overblown, or slightly subdued/hedgey, depending on his mood.

I'm going to keep going through his ISO but this really is just the heart of the read; not this one post, but the fact that the general read applies to a LOT of his posts.

Think this is a natural follow-through focus from Vaimes here; considering the context of JPM, Vaimes's yearning to get something out of that Miner/me interaction just... fits.

I also think the passing through that Miner/fonti are scum here, which is a thread he mentions a few times, is something Vaimes would kinda not be into, if fonti's his partner. But I also don't see it as super likely if fonti's NOT his partner. Like, at this point in the thread, scum!Vaimes would be looking at Miner as a surefire mislynch. I think he'd be too nervous of town!fonti accusing him of trying to chain onto her, and I think he'd be too "rah rah teammates #scum4lyfe" about fonti to give the thread that association. It's too weak to be an effective bus and fonti would just get mad at him? I think.

The level of Vaimes poking at this whole situation, the nuance of it, I just... I really don't think wolf!Vaimes can do that.

Blah blah blah one day he'll fool me etc. But... it's kinda stark.

That is town!Vaimes snark.

Scum!Vaimes doesn't speak with this level of confidence/authority, at least not in my experience.

Yeah these are just variations on a theme.

This is Vaimes talking to confirmed town Fable.

I just... I don't see Vaimes making that post to someone he knows is town.

I'm gonna skip to some later stuff because all reading Vaime's early posts is doing for me is reaffirming my strong townread.

This is so goddamn stark.

This comes like 24 hours later, or more. And there's no agenda. None. He's pushing Miner, but there is zero way his this Vaimes subtly trying to position me for a mislynch later.

He just has a thing in his teeth and he's trying to figure it out.

Yeah Regfan I'm just going to stop.

If this is wolf!Vaimes he's earned his free one, IMO. I'm not budging.

 

Probably Rubi. It's between him and Fonti for me, but a bunch have people have Fonti/Kalas unaligned. I'd like to see Kalas's flip before making that decision.

I've been meaning to look at some stuff at the start of today as well. I might get that out before EoD still.

 

You mean making a decision between Rubicon and Font? Um, you do realize we're making this decision toDay, right?

 

Regfan

Vaimes may no longer have the power, but I will shoot you if you don't lay off the ad hominem stuff with Atum.

In other news:
Lynch: Rubicon

 

+1

Also, here's an updated vote count:

Rubicon [5] - Vaimes, Font, Fable, Vira, Miner.
Atum [3] - Reg, Cobalt, Jari.
Reg [2] - Atum.
Font [1] - Rubicon.

Not Voting [4] - Delphine, Fluff, Newcomb, Waco.

I guess it takes eight to lynch.

 

We can make it tomorrow if we lynch Atum today.

I wrote more, but my internet stole it twice.

 

I'm not lynching Atum. Vote Rubicon or go home.

 

Can we be best friends?

 

If it comes down to me or Atum, I'll vote him for the HF vest. But the guy is obviously town.

Still want to lynch fonti.

Check in.

Going to read through the Waco stuff now.

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If Atum were a witch, pretty sure he'd be voting me right now instead of sticking to this regfan crusade that's not going anywhere.

 

Rubicon, where's my readslist?

 

I want everyone to know that, for a couple of minutes last night, I was tinfoiling a world where Jan self-killed as a witch purely to sow paranoia among the townfirms so that we'd lynch each other.

But now I'm awake and done being silly.

 

I kind of like Jarizok's point in #2447. We get a lot of clarity from the Koalas flip, so there's a good argument that can be made that several people shouldn't be lynched until we get info from GD or apprentice. KaiDASH for sure because of LC, and maybe fontisian based on the stuff regfan pointed out earlier (especially the whole thing Koalas wrote about his feet burning, can that be aligned?).

I'll also throw in regfan for Atum based on this reasoning: regfan is only a witch if Cobalt is a witch. Cobalt didn't know Koalas had died, so he's probably not on a team with Koalas. That means a witch flip from Koalas makes both Cobalt and regfan significantly more likely to be town.

 

I thought you were sure Font/Kai were scum?

 

Talking about Jarizok:

Spoiler

I'm just going to reiterate for the Nth time that I think is post is incredibly wolfy.

Every single point is disputing Reg's read while while not offering another take. It's the kind of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt that scum are practically forced to insert into this kind of meta-environment if they want to stand a chance.

The town!Gravedigger making this post, and then claiming D2 doesn't seem right to me.

If I squint, I can kinda see town!Jarizok just writing off his plan since no one really picked it up - that kiiiinda fits my personality read of him? But it's the fact that he mentions it exactly once, and then drops all GD talk IIRC. I'll have to check that as I'm reading.

So, follow the thread through this thought.

The "actually no" stands out to me. It's kind of a subtle thing, but see if this tracks -

- He's thinking about Delphine's gimmick, doesn't think it deserves a townread.

- But he's leaning town on her anyway.

- And then the phrase "actually no", which seems to be referring to whatever thoughts his has on her gimmick.

But the gimmick is something he's null on. So the "actually no" doesn't quite fit there, to my eye.

Basically, I think this paragraph has a kind of "constructed to look like town consideration but the thought doesn't quite track" look to it.

In worlds where Delphine/Miner are scum, Jarizok is never their partner.

In worlds where Delphine/Miner are town, this looks like a perspective slip to me. He's not considering worlds where Orcale is scum, just leaping to the thought that the Orcale claim gets two townfirms... because he knows Oracle is a town role this game. He's also putting a fair amount of weight onto "don't narrow down the Priest pool for scum", which is prooooobably NAI since that's a pretty "in the air supply" thought, but coupled with the "two townclears" thing comes off as a potentially a mindset leak.

Still going with Priest checking the GD; it's an indication that he believes in this pretty strongly.

Potential wrench in the works; I can more easily buy a world where town!Jarizok was considering Oracle/their check just two free clears if he hadn't taken the extra step to consider witches safeclaiming a dropped role.

Jarizok/Atum are like, never a thing for that whole exchange, topped by the whole "Jarizok explains scumhunting" thing.

This is...

People have been over this before, right? This is why Reg/Fable are saying strongly not w/w with owner?

I see it, ish, but it doesn't seem strong to me, particularly in the context of Miner still being the focus/mislynch de jour.

^ to Koalas. Have a pretty easy time seeing that as w/w.

Ehhh, is that a post scum!Jarizok makes to someone he knows is town?

That's the kind of post scum!Vira would make to someone she knows is town. Kinda think wolf!Jarizok would go for the throat a bit more without dressing it up in a guise of sympathy.

Meh, I'm conflicted about this one. It does read like the kind of Category 2 "I want to look like I'm being considerate without ramming the mislynch home" scum archtype. It's nuanced, though.
Vaimes thoughts on this post in particular, knowing Fable's town here?

Could easily be w/w.

Hnn.

I think this is a pretty villagery post?

TL;DR I don't think it quite makes sense in either fonti alignment worlds for Jarizok to take this line with her after Delphine's claim. He has a post a few back going "well fonti looks bad for pushing Miner," and then he elaborates on it here... doesn't really read like a bus, doesn't really read like he's trying to mislynch her, more like he's trying to figure her out.

I think?

I feel like there should be something indicative in this post but idk.

Hrngle, That kinda makes sense. I mean it doesn't make sense, but it doesn't make sense from a witch!PoV I think? Like why you'd want to distance yourself from the role; witch!GD is all about milking the credibility and mixing truth with lies on the flips to manipulate the gamestate.

I think the thought that he'd want to be cagey about it and hide himself as GD here prooooobably just comes from town.

Yeah.

Okay fine I'll lay off Jarizok.

I still think that one post is just mind-bogglingly wolfy but whatever.

 

Vira: In villager!Koalas worlds that is absolutely the case. The Jarizok point is that it makes the most sense to wait and confirm whether Koalas was a witch before lynching in that group, because if Koalas was a witch (like half the game believes) they are more likely to be town.

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My preference would be to lynch Jarizok first so that fonti and me both get the info.