I mean. That's what I've been saying, with the additional thing I have to think about is Reg/Cobalt worlds.

 

Actually not sure I can rule out Miner/Delpine/Rubicon. Since they know that their votes there make him not look like a partner if they ever flip, or if he ever flips. And if the wagon actually went through Delphine/Mine probably look good enough to endgame with? Maybe less likely but not impossible?

But man Delphine/Miner/Owner/Kolas/Waco feels really good.

 

Does Delphine really do that, from like, the early early early early game. Against town me, Reg, fonti, AND Jan? Does she /really/?

Golf clap, if so.

 

Not going to lie that. I'm somehow both proud and sad that you think this game is inside my scum range if you're town here. Like effort/content I can fake as mafia, yes, but a lot of what I've done here just isn't in the same universe as my scum range.

 

My only experience with you as mafia is JPM so I'm just going to go with a resounding "nah" at that.

 

If you're scum with oracle and you've got a team that doesn't compose of any of those players you're intending on winning playing 'safe' how? The big move of attempting to pull her/miner out of the scum pool is the +EV one actually. Could also make the argument that the likelihood of the person we were lynching D1 being the oracle clear is a lower likelihood of it being mafia that was making that move.

Miner also just didn't feel like he was getting lynched there? Like he knew something was coming.

---------- Post automerged at 01:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:52 AM ----------

Sadface. I've got a lot of meta you can read through if you've got time but with the MU games running I feel like your answer to that is going to be 'nah' as well and I think I'd rather you spent your time talking with me here.

 

That is actually a pretty good point and something I need to verity for myself, hang on.

 

Like if you think about how people generally feel when being run up and mslynched as town and what they normally provide during that period of time...there's none of that there from Miner at all. Like him having that reaction and Delphine saving him both happening there where he's town getting mslynched feels more unlikely then him just knowing that she'll be saving him later anyway.

 

Ehh, I'm going to disagree with you, Reg.

I think it's genuine frustration, regardless of alignment.

Like, really put yourself in the shoes of wolf!Delphine/wolf!Miner here.

They kind of have to be playing really really good and really really bad at the same time.

Like... pregame, like literally the first 30 minutes the thread was open, Miner goes "I'm going to play super wolfy and then get cleared by one of you guys claiming Oracle! There's no way this can possibly backfire!"

No, it would have to happen gradually, like Miner gets rocked back on his heels, and they come up with the idea to save him. So then, where's all this "omg no one knows how to read me!" coming from? At some point, they'd have to decide he was getting saved, and I really feel like some of that tonally would have to leak through into his posts, like, a shift or something. He'd know he'd have to be the carry and he'd start doing /something different/, take the game more seriously.

Like, just from a team PoV if this is a play scum makes for you you have a responsibility to really play well. But there's no point in D1 that I see where you see a shift to a different gear or different look, he's just kinda fucking around talking about his meta and arguing with fonti until Delphine clears him.

I'm not seeing it.

 

Anyway I'm finishing work in a few minutes, I'll read/think more into it tonight.

From tomorrow onwards I'll probably only be able to make 2-3 posts a day.

 

Yeah, going to bed. Probably spent too much time on this tonight as it is.

I feel like someone's going to need to convince on Delphine/Miner though, idk I think it's one of those things where the attrition of time and them not being super villagery D2 is just gnawing. But the way Delphine claimed at the time it felt almost never like a wolf thing, then.

 

Hi,

I felt like you went around early D1 actually really trying to understand me, in that you bounced from "I don't understand what you're doing at all" to then liking my thought processes but also kind of using them to analyse even though you didn't entirely agree to them to some more of "I don't understand this" to still pushing on Kalas/Jari because of the manner in which you were reading me. I feel like if you were mafia you would be devoting that attention to someone other than me, because I'm not someone the crowd expects you to care too much about, and I think I'm not loud enough that it matters enough for you to influence me. I think the way you anchored around miner both prior to and after the claim is really town indicative. You kinda fell off my radar a bit D2 I think due to you trying to be coy.

I don't feel quite as strongly about it as the wildcard game, but when you come into day phases I really still do feel like you don't have an agenda/team. You go back to D1 on your own terms, you give actual reads on the fuckin' priest/aco on your own terms, and when you talk about how you're using your role I believe you. When you talked about how the beginning of D2 Reg was confusing as hell I believed you don't have TMI. I think you're right that Vira and Vaimes are never lynches. I think everyone that voted Rubicon yesterday is town even though I'm not convinced he's mafia.

I don't really know what the fuck I'm doing but I'm going to just try talking more and write down when the fucking deadline is in my QT and hope other people can hear me out there even though I cannot output as many thoughts per minute as other people.

I thiiink Waco/Jari are more aligned than any other combination of {Waco, Jari, Rubicon} based primarily on Waco's relatively high placement of Jari throughout the game + the interaction where Jari's like "lol I don't like your posts but I don't think you're aligned w/ Rubicon so let me throw you out" thing.

I didn't townread Cobalt before the claim and so I actually became okay with him as an extension of me townreading Reg? My subconscious still doesn't like him though. I read a high stakes scumgame from Reg last night and it upped my view of his range quite a bit; he spends an actually disgusting amount of time talking over reads with one of his buddies and actually has better tone than I expected (although he does give reads in his first post lmfao). Overnight I was like "if I am wrong on my Reg read I have confirmation biased myself to such a degree over the course of this game that I should maybe just fucking quit mafia," coming into this phase I'm feeling sorta...I guess uncomfortable with his view of the game state, because most worlds that don't involve me being scum involve you (Newcomb) being scum and I both struggle seeing you as mafia and struggle to be convinced that he really feels that way about you especially considering his stance on your D1?

I don't really have anything to say to the D1 what-ifs. I can't fucking speak for miner, I'm sorry that I tend to freeze when I have town PR TMI and that that probably makes it harder to look into how I felt at the time, and I've never been scum in Witchhunt and it makes it hard for me to relate to what exactly they're trying to do.

 

Keep making posts like that, Delphine.

 

If Cobalt/Reg's actually a thing then I actually don't feel like Jari's in their world because I think Reg's progression on both Jari and miner/me would be of him TMIing Jari town, progressively weakening his read on Jari when town doesn't come around to it, and then co-opting Jari's argument that ~omg miner/me totally makes sense~ when it looks like it could gain more traction after arguing "lolbad but never mafia for it".

But yeah, I'm ready to hash this out this phase.

---------- Post automerged at 12:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:36 AM ----------

One super frustrating thing is that you'd think knowing that Kalas +lifed town would make the game state easier to read but it kind of doesn't? Like I wanna say he's still pretty likely mafia trying to make town look bad via WIFOM hail-mary, particularly since he was like whaa whaa this is a waste but openly refused to state an alternative. And because it's hard enough as it is trying to fit 3 people together.

 

Miner has a shot tonight btw, we should talk about that too.

 

I'll respond properly when I'm not on a phone but for now you can have this Newcomb.

 

A weird thing for me is that I never actually townread him in JPM or had any desire to sheep him. I've have found him quite a bit looser and more active here, and considering I'd argue he liked his team in JPM it seems strange for him to come off much better here if he's the same alignment. Which you and von have seemed to tentatively agree with at least? I felt good about the fact that you were "looking for ways he could be mafia" but having trouble seeing it mid-late D1 here. I do need to take another look at how he was handling the massclaim last phase.

In JPM it absolutely permeated his scumchat that "I wanna kill Newcomb already so that I can mislynch my weaker townreads that he agreed with" and so that's kinda been my trump-card-in-waiting for reading him - which is less applicable due to the nature of the kills in this setup. I am tentatively worried about the ~~worlds post~~ because of that, as they feel like he dropped his inconvenient townreads like they were hot for reasons I don't entirely understand (other than lol this game is hard), but I am pretty confident we'll hash it out.

---------- Post automerged at 01:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:26 AM ----------

I kinda think if Waco was scum with Rubicon he would have had better reasoning for his Rubicon light scumread in this post esp considering Rubicon's post count.

 

Always town:
Me, Fluff

Ride or die:
Vira, Vaimes, Font, Regfan, Cobalt

I'm never going to be voting any of the above anymore this game. Fluff because he can't be faking priest and the rest because they're a combination of behaviorally always town or never aligned with Owner/Koalas and mechanically linked to each other.

This leaves the following worlds, order from likely to least likely:

Owner/Koalas/Fable/Waco/(Rubicon/Newcomb/Kai(most likely Kai))

In this world, Jan was obviously Acolyte. Jan's softs pregame with Fluff as priest were before Aco even know priest, but the way the start of D2 played out, scum would have been fishing to see if the priest was still alive, and if so if he'd taken the bait with the Reg haunt.

Either the priest is dead and they don't get a reaction to the pressure there and the Acolyte probably claims the dead priest down the road, or 'hopefully' the priest checked haunted Reg and jumps on. They would have then missed the priest N1, but if they had a holy read on Jan, they'd then figure he was Aco, freeing that claim up for scum. Waco has to be scum here because he claimed he checked Fable holy last night.

This world is the most likely based on my reads, but it obviously requires claim shenanigans. Then again, so do the Delphine/Miner worlds. Delphine's posts today just sound so not-scum that I'm no longer a true believer. We do have a bunch of leftover kills however. I want Kai to Leeroy Delphine because of this. That way we get Kai's flip and we can confirm Miner +lifetown/(+life?)witch. Ruling out or confirming a world today is win/win

If it is Owner/Koalas/Delphine/Miner, I have no most likely suspect in Newcomb/Rubicon/Waco/Kai like I do Kai in the first world claim/interaction wise. Rubi based on my latest individual scumminess meter though.

Least likely, funnily enough, is that all townclears are legit, which leaves:

Owner/Koalas/(Kai/Newcomb/Rubi/Waco). That's just the entire PoE. I struggle to see a team with strong player like that in this bad a position this early on. Sure, there's a bunch of clears, but they would have seen that coming. I just don't see the game ever playing out the way it did with a scumteam like this.

The plan for today should be to direct Kai's kill before we concern ourselves with the lynch. That and the lynch gives us 3 flips to work with tomorrow, which should allow us to narrow the possible worlds down a lot. I also struggle to see myself still alive to give the flips the day after. Witches and Angels have Fluff to kill/protect, but I'm not far behind as a target, and that's if I don't get lynched as part of the PoE, so I don't see the upside of holding off on Leeroying today.

 

Newcomb RE; #2709; I'm not saying that they've gone with the plan of "Seem intentionally scummy, I'll oracle clear you" right off the bat at all, that'd be pretty silly. I think in this setup if you're getting oracle as mafia with that sort of team composition (Owner/Koalas/Delphine/Miner +1) having the strategy of the player that's the most town read claiming an oracle innocent on the player that's the most scum read at the end of pregame and start crumbing it from there is a very logical and arguably the optimal play for it.

I think if you look at the mid-end of D1 type posting of Miners that you've quoted there it's very light on him attempting to state reads, leave thoughts behind. Really the only he brings up is the Vaimes one and I think this type of attitude is one that makes more sense coming from scum knowing they won't actually be lynched than town just about to be mslynched. Even after Fontisians "You're about to die bro" type post there wasn't really the attitude there from him that you'd expect from someone resigned to being mslynched or attempting to stop themselves from being msylnched.

The only thing I'd agree with you so far about is that if this was the plan "Surely he'd do more to attempt to make them look better late on with it" but that's uh, an assumption that I think is silly; if he's mafia him posting more actually increases the odds of him being scum read and people realising that they're a scum duo. I think you'll notice both Delphine and Miner had activity drops D2, that both fits with them trying to fly under the radar especially when there's a PoE involving majority town in action. I mean I get that Delphine says she missed when the deadline was and that's what caused her inactivity and that's plausible and all but so is them just being mafia.

I mean if you look at their EOD votes and play too, neither really considered the upsides of lynching Atum and how it assists us, both of them voted Rubicon rather than Atum and that's...a move that makes sense for scum to do? You're not on a mslynch at the end of the day, you're also not actively attempting to give the priest protection.

Like right now we're in a position where I'm looking around and thinking I could see Waco as scum, sure but outside of him who do I really have a scum read on? There's 3 scum, where are they? And I just keep coming back to Miner and by connection Delphine right here. I haven't town read anything that Miners done this entire game, I could bring up dozens of posts that I think are scum-motivated and it feels right in terms of world building, interactions inside the game and everything.

There's also an uh, Koalas/Miner interaction that screams partners to me...and I was kind of hoping you'd bring it up yourself so I could feel even better about you but well that's not happened and it's probable I've just not given yo enough time. So, find it for me? I mean I'm quite possibly considering them the most likely scum team in the game right now, nothing fits as well as they do.

Also, be honest please, % wise how sceptical are you of me being mafia, because if it's even marginally high I'm pretty sure I can make myself pretty much confirmed town in your eyes in one (fairly longish post) but it's not something really want to do unless I have to for a few reasons, most largely that I think if I make it I'll never win a scum game.

---------- Post automerged at 04:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:40 AM ----------
Jarizok - Fables never mafia here.

---------- Post automerged at 04:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:43 AM ----------

Fable posted this 20 minutes after the Acolyte is informed on who the priest is.

 

I respectfully disagree and will endeavour to proof you wrong.

Also, I just realized we can't have a Kai kill AND a lynch, fml.